Mailbag: What could the Eagles' pick from the Saints fetch in a 'trade out' scenario if it lands in the top five?

[time2rock]

Mailbag: What could the Eagles' pick from the Saints fetch in a 'trade out' scenario if it lands in the top five?

BY JIMMY KEMPSKI
PhillyVoice Staff

KIRBY LEE/USA TODAY SPORTS

Howie Roseman

Earlier this week we solicited questions for an Eagles mailbag via Twitter. We received a lot of good questions in response, so we'll have mailbag today and Sunday morning as well.

Question from @Austin_Jon: If the Saints pick ends up being high enough do you see the Eagles taking a player there or looking to get more picks?

The Saints lost on Thursday night, bringing their record to 2-5. If the season ended right now (it doesn't), that pick would be fourth overall. It's a strong pass rusher draft, so if the Eagles wound up with a pick that high, they could "stick and pick" and have themselves a blue chip prospect, and I think that would be fine.

But just for fun, let's look at the recent history of teams trading out of a top five pick:

• 2021: The Dolphins traded the third overall pick (Trey Lance) to the 49ers for the 12th overall pick, first- and third-round picks in 2022, and a first-round pick in 2023.

• 2018: The Colts traded the third overall pick (Sam Darnold) to the Jets for the sixth overall pick, a pair of second-round picks (37th and 49th overall), and a second-round pick in 2019.

• 2017: The 49ers traded the second overall pick (Mitch Trubisky) to the Bears for the third overall pick, a third-round pick (67th), a fourth-round pick (111th), and a third-round pick in 2018.

• 2016: The Titans traded the first overall pick (Jared Goff) along with a fourth-round pick (113th) and a sixth-round pick (177th) to the Rams for the 15th overall pick, a pair of second-round picks (43rd and 45th), a third-round pick (76th), as well as first- and third-round picks in 2017.

• 2017: The Browns traded the second overall pick (Carson Wentz) along with a conditional fifth-round pick to the Eagles for the 8th overall pick, a third-round pick (77th), a fourth-round pick (100th), a first-round pick in 2017, and a second-round pick in 2018.

The 2023 draft is thought to have some good quarterback prospects, like Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, and others, so there could be some opportunity for Howie Roseman to cash in on a team trying to trade up for one of those guys. 

Question from @CodySIO: Do you think trading for an O-line depth piece (specifically at RT) is a priority after seeing the shift in the game with Lane Johnson out? If not, which area of our team would suffer the most (other than QB) if someone went down?

There are no replacements for Lane Johnson. He is the best player on the team, in my opinion, and a top 25 type of player in this league. Guys who give up 0 sacks over the span of 20+ games don’t exist, especially when you ask them to consistently shut down elite pass rushers 1-on-1 with no help. I thought Jack Driscoll came in and was fine on Sunday night, but he’s not going to shut down a combination of Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence like Lane did in the first half. You could substitute any other tackle in the NFL for Lane at RT, and there’d be a dropoff.

What I think did we did see on Sunday night was a major dropoff in play at safety when Chauncey Gardner-Johnson went down. I think that Howie should be in the market for a competent No. 3 safety. That would be the No. 2 priority on my shopping list, if I'm Howie.

And then at DE, the Eagles have Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham. After that it’s Tarron Jackson, who the team has not been comfortable playing so far. Haason Reddick and Patrick Johnson can rush from the edge on passing downs, but I think the Eagles would be in some trouble on early downs if Graham or Sweat got hurt.

Question from @AndyParas: What is the Eagles record when Lane Johnson doesn’t play or comes out early? Last week seems like one of the few where the Eagles held on.

Figuring out which games he came out of early is a chore I don't think I want to undertake today, but here are their records each year when he doesn’t play, beginning with the Doug Pederson era when he was really starting to become an elite player:

• 2021: 1-3

• 2020: 2-7

• 2019: 3-1

• 2018: 0-1

• 2017: 1-0

• 2016: 2-8

TOTAL: 9-20

So your point is well taken that he is an extremely important player.

Question from @CptRedBeard_5OH: What's one splash move you think Howie could make at the trade deadline, and what's one more realistic move you think he will make?

I think the most likely position they attack is edge rusher. The splash move is Brian Burns. My favorite target on the more realistic front is Texans DE Rasheem Green. I covered those possibilities in more depth here.

Question from @TheReason540: Would you trade for Melvin Gordon or Myles Gaskin?

I think we can add Cam Akers to this question, too. Those are all players whose current teams seemingly don’t think much of, as evidenced by their varying losses of playing time. The Eagles already added a guy like that earlier this year in Trey Sermon. I would not give up a draft pick for a running back that may or may not be better than my fourth back. If I were to make a move for a running back, I would only do so if (a) I thought he could have an impact, and (b) the cost was reasonably low. Otherwise, I’d just be prepared to roll with Miles Sanders, Kenny Gainwell, Boston Scott, and Sermon.

Question from @Boston_Sucks: If you could only guarantee one of these happens, which would you guarantee? This doesn’t mean the other isn’t allowed to happen, but you can guarantee one. 1) Eagles get the No. 1 seed in the NFC. 2) Eagles get the No. 1 overall pick from the Saints. 

Ooh, I like that one. I have my answer, which I'll write about in the Sunday mailbag. Let's put that to a vote here before I answer:

What do you value more?

No. 1 seed in the NFC

No. 1 pick in the draft (from another team)

VoteView Results

What do you value more?

Question from @cocoeagles88: We are very punch drunk happy right now because of the Eagles’ record, but special teams is extremely concerning. What can they adjust to make immediate changes?

The Cowboys got a couple of good returns out of KaVontae Turpin last Sunday night (one of which got called back), but I think that the Eagles have otherwise been fine on their coverage units. They also have one of the best kickers in the NFL in Jake Elliott, which can get lost amid the special teams quibbling.

The return game stinks. They are wholly unthreatening on kick and punt returns. Blocking doesn't appear to be great on their returns, but I think the bigger issue is that they simply don't have a good returner. The way to make an immediate change on that front is to trade for a better one, but I can't say that I see that as a likely scenario. It'll probably be a season-long frustration.

Question from vandiedutch87: What would the cost of Christian McCaffrey realistically be? As good as he is, would be would it even be worth it?

I think that McCaffrey will be traded for four draft picks — second-, third-, and fourth-round picks in 2023, and a fifth-round pick in 2024. 😉

I wouldn't have given up a two for McCaffrey, much less all those extra picks.

This move makes the Niners better (duh), but that is a ridiculous overpay. They're not as good as they think they are.

Question from @old_chester: Was Josh Innes the worst radio host in Philly sports talk radio history? Or was he just the biggest name associated with failure in Philly sports talk radio?

I had kind of forgotten about him. Is he even a notable name? I only know of him because he was a gigantic a-hole here for a few years. Otherwise, who in Philly would even know who he is? People are oddly attracted to the worst humanity has to offer (see, um, nevermind), so he did have a following. In that respect, he’s probably not the worst ever, because there are plenty of radio hosts who come and go and never gain any traction at all. I remember giving him a chance early on, but my impression of him was a guy desperate to be edgy, but not actually having the talent or humor to pull it off.

Question from JaxBill10: What is one press box food that has been so good that you wanted to order it in a restaurant? What is one press box food thar has been so bad that you can never eat it again anywhere?

The Cowboys' mac and cheese is one of the best things I've ever eaten. It has won multiple Jimmy Kempski Press Box Food Spread MVP awards. Dallas' local ABC TV even did a feature on it (that I participated in).

As for worst press box foods, there have been dozens of offerings that I would never put in my mouth. As for foods I wish I hadn't tried, I have had chicken at FedEx Field where I've taken a bite or two, and realized, "What am I doing?"

https://www.phillyvoice.com/mailbag-what-could-eagles-pick-saints-fetch-trade-out-scenario-top-five/

[time2rock]

Quote

But just for fun, let's look at the recent history of teams trading out of a top five pick:

• 2021: The Dolphins traded the third overall pick (Trey Lance) to the 49ers for the 12th overall pick, first- and third-round picks in 2022, and a first-round pick in 2023.

If we end up with a top 5 pick from NO, it is going to be tough to choose between using that pick on a top edge rusher like Anderson or Murphy or trading back if they can swing a deal similar to what Miami got in return for the 3rd overall pick in 2021.  Moving back 9 spots (such that we still have a top 15 pick and our own later in the 1st) and picking up 2 future 1st rd picks and a 3rd would be extremely tempting.  

[eggs]

2 hours ago, time2rock said:

If we end up with a top 5 pick from NO, it is going to be tough to choose between using that pick on a top edge rusher like Anderson or Murphy or trading back if they can swing a deal similar to what Miami got in return for the 3rd overall pick in 2021.  Moving back 9 spots (such that we still have a top 15 pick and our own later in the 1st) and picking up 2 future 1st rd picks and a 3rd would be extremely tempting.  

I agree. To stay an elite team while signing Hurts to a long term deal, they’re going to need a surplus of inexpensive talent from the draft for the next few years so looking for a haul from a trade back makes sense. 

[Guest]

3 hours ago, time2rock said:

If we end up with a top 5 pick from NO, it is going to be tough to choose between using that pick on a top edge rusher like Anderson or Murphy or trading back if they can swing a deal similar to what Miami got in return for the 3rd overall pick in 2021.  Moving back 9 spots (such that we still have a top 15 pick and our own later in the 1st) and picking up 2 future 1st rd picks and a 3rd would be extremely tempting.  

 

39 minutes ago, eggs said:

I agree. To stay an elite team while signing Hurts to a long term deal, they’re going to need a surplus of inexpensive talent from the draft for the next few years so looking for a haul from a trade back makes sense. 

If the intention is to make Hurts the future, and sign him to a big deal, need to stop trading to future drafts and get talent on the roster ASAP.

5 starters on defense are free agents after this year, stay out and draft the BPA

[eaglesfan0075]

There are quite a few key free agents this offseason, especially on defense. We can't re-sign everyone but my guess is the team tries to focus on re-signing their defensive back free agents such as Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, James Bradberry, Marcus Epps, etc... over Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Javon Hargrave, since that top 5-10 pick is going to put them in a position to snatch an elite DT/DE prospect to pair with Jordan Davis. Especially with Howie's success with drafting DL compared to DB, I don't see the team using a first round pick on a DB in the near future. Guys like Jalen Carter and Myles Murphy are going to be valued over Kelee Ringo and Cam Smith by the front office IMO.

I can see both 1st round picks going towards the DL, but it's still too far away from the draft/free agency to flesh out an exact strategy. 

[Procus]

6 hours ago, eaglesfan0075 said:

There are quite a few key free agents this offseason, especially on defense. We can't re-sign everyone but my guess is the team tries to focus on re-signing their defensive back free agents such as Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, James Bradberry, Marcus Epps, etc... over Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Javon Hargrave, since that top 5-10 pick is going to put them in a position to snatch an elite DT/DE prospect to pair with Jordan Davis. Especially with Howie's success with drafting DL compared to DB, I don't see the team using a first round pick on a DB in the near future. Guys like Jalen Carter and Myles Murphy are going to be valued over Kelee Ringo and Cam Smith by the front office IMO.

I can see both 1st round picks going towards the DL, but it's still too far away from the draft/free agency to flesh out an exact strategy. 

Bradberry will be tough to re-sign - he'll command too much on the open market and will be turning 30.  I suspect as well that CGJ will fetch too much money.  Cox and Graham should not fetch much on the open market given their age, and I'd otherwise suspect a home team discount.  They're set financially for life and comfortable playing here.

[PoconoDon]

On 10/22/2022 at 8:58 AM, time2rock said:

If we end up with a top 5 pick from NO, it is going to be tough to choose between using that pick on a top edge rusher like Anderson or Murphy or trading back if they can swing a deal similar to what Miami got in return for the 3rd overall pick in 2021.  Moving back 9 spots (such that we still have a top 15 pick and our own later in the 1st) and picking up 2 future 1st rd picks and a 3rd would be extremely tempting.  

More is almost always better. If you're staring at a HOF talent I understand using the pick, and you better be right. If however you're not, trade back and collect the haul. It'll serve the team best moving forward.

[time2rock]

1 hour ago, PoconoDon said:

More is almost always better. If you're staring at a HOF talent I understand using the pick, and you better be right. If however you're not, trade back and collect the haul. It'll serve the team best moving forward.

Pretty much sums up my thoughts as well.  Many are calling Anderson a generational talent (and he also happens to play a position of need for us).  If he is there do you take him or the picks (if the hypothetical trade offer arises)?  

[UK_EaglesFan89]

I can definitely see us trading down if we have a top 5 pick from the Saints. It makes a lot of sense especially if Hurts is our franchise QB.

[PoconoDon]

57 minutes ago, time2rock said:

Pretty much sums up my thoughts as well.  Many are calling Anderson a generational talent (and he also happens to play a position of need for us).  If he is there do you take him or the picks (if the hypothetical trade offer arises)?  

At 6'4" and only 245lbs, he seems like he'd grow into a 3-4 LB'er who would be used as a situational pass rusher. Can he be a down 4-3 DE and stop the run against NFL OT's? I doubt it. Therefore, I say even if he is cat quick, offenses should use a TE or RB to chip him and help the OT on passing downs and just in-line bury him in the run game.

Here's the part where I may look foolish going forward but...I take the trade, not the single undersized pass rusher. That's just me though.

[time2rock]

7 hours ago, PoconoDon said:

At 6'4" and only 245lbs, he seems like he'd grow into a 3-4 LB'er who would be used as a situational pass rusher. Can he be a down 4-3 DE and stop the run against NFL OT's? I doubt it. Therefore, I say even if he is cat quick, offenses should use a TE or RB to chip him and help the OT on passing downs and just in-line bury him in the run game.

Here's the part where I may look foolish going forward but...I take the trade, not the single undersized pass rusher. That's just me though.

I take the picks too.  

[Portyansky]

On 10/22/2022 at 8:18 AM, time2rock said:

Question from @Boston_Sucks: If you could only guarantee one of these happens, which would you guarantee? This doesn’t mean the other isn’t allowed to happen, but you can guarantee one. 1) Eagles get the No. 1 seed in the NFC. 2) Eagles get the No. 1 overall pick from the Saints. 

No. 1 seed and it's not even close. Get a bye week to rest. And home field advantage is huge!

Vs.

A crap shoot