Game Preview – Playoffs – NYG at PHI

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Game Preview – Playoffs – NYG at PHI

Posted: January 19th, 2023 | Author: Tommy Lawlor 

The Eagles head into Saturday night’s meeting with the Giants as 7-point favorites. This isn’t just a case of the Eagles having the better record. You can study the raw stats, the analytics or go by the good old eye test. The Eagles are absolutely the better team.

Some people are buying into the idea of the Giants pulling off an upset. I understand where that comes from. They played well last week and the Eagles had the week off. Recency bias can be a real thing.

Let’s not forget how good the Eagles were this season. They had the best record in the league and finished 3rd in DVOA. The Eagles were a complete team, playing at a high level on offense and defense. Their STs unit struggled early, but played well down the stretch.

Postseason upsets tend to happen for a couple of reasons. The first is matchups. If the lesser team has a matchup they can exploit or if they can neutralize a key part of the opponent’s game, that levels the playing field. The other reason for upsets is the mental side of things. If one team is locked in and the other lacks focus, you can get an upset.

Neither reason favors the Giants this week. They don’t match up well with the Eagles on offense or defense. They have advantages in a couple of spots, but not overall. As for the mental side of things, Jalen Hurts is all business. That is one of the most driven young players I’ve ever seen in the NFL. I can’t imagine he’d let the Eagles be overconfident.

Injuries are an X-factor in every game. Hurts seems to be good to go, functionally. Pain looks like the biggest issue at this point. Lane Johnson has practiced two days in a row and looks okay in the limited clips we’ve seen. It sounds like pain is a primary issue for him as well. My guess is that he’ll try to go. With those guys on the field, the Eagles are in good shape. The only starter who won’t play is Avonte Maddox.

I expect the Eagles to come out throwing the ball. That’s what they did in the first meeting, which they won 48-22. That’s what they did in the second game, when they built up a 19-0 lead. The Vikings lost last week, but did score 24 points and Kirk Cousins was 31 for 39 passing. Throwing on the Giants makes a lot of sense.

They do struggle on run defense. The Eagles piled up 253 rushing yards in the first game, but 192 of them came in the second half. The Eagles threw to build a lead and then turned Miles Sanders loose. Boston Scott, too, of course.

The Eagles gameplan will start with controlling #97, Dexter Lawrence. He is the one difference-maker the Giants have on their defense.

https://twitter.com/nickfalato/status/1616042411607691268

Williams can be disruptive, but the Eagles OL can block him 1-on-1. Landon Dickerson, Jason Kelce and Isaac Seumalo are all strong, tough and athletic. Two of them can double Lawrence while the other takes Williams. Wink Martindale knows this too and will mix in blitzes, stunts and anything else he can think of to disrupt the Eagles protections.

Jeff Stoutland is the best in the business when it comes to designing blocking schemes and then teaching them to his guys. You can bet he’ll have some plans for how to handle anything the Giants throw at the OL.

This is the playoffs and that means the Eagles will use the full playbook with Jalen Hurts. There will be designed runs. There will be scrambles. There will be RPOs. Hurts needs to be smart about running, but he’s going to do everything he can to win this game. I expect Hurts to play well and lead the Eagles to points. The Giants aren’t going to stop the Eagles on a regular basis unless turnovers and penalties are major issues.

I am curious to see if the Eagles make a concerted effort to get the ball to Dallas Goedert. He missed the first game. The Giants struggle with TEs so going to Goedert would make sense. With AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith also out there, you don’t want to force things. Get the ball to the open receiver. With the Giants, that just might be Goedert.

Hurts running will help to open the overall run game back up. Don’t expect a lot of work for Miles Sanders in the first half. The coaches are likely to attack through the air. They’ll want to run more after halftime.

When it comes to defense, the Eagles might see a different Giants offense. The G-men came out throwing last week and might choose the same strategy this time as well. Daniel Jones is coming off a great game. That strategy will be tougher when facing the Eagles secondary and pass rush.

The best way to beat the Eagles is to have methodical drives that work the clock. That requires third down conversions. The Giants started off 5 for 6 on third downs last week and that helped lead at halftime. The Saints and Commanders both used methodical drives to get the best of the Eagles defense and keep the Eagles offense sitting on the sideline. The Giants would love to do that. Going deep isn’t a big part of their offense.

That’s a wow stat. The Giants don’t go deep for a couple of reasons. First, they don’t have field-stretching WRs. Their guys are better short and intermediate. The OL isn’t good enough to be holding blocks for deep throws on a regular basis.

We’ll see how accurate Jones is when he’s under more pressure this time out. The Eagles can mix in press coverage and take more chances if they want because the Giants aren’t as likely to attack vertically.

I am curious to see how they use Saquon Barkley. I’m guessing Brian Daboll will try to get him into space against Eagles LBs or DBs. That would be one offensive mismatch to try and exploit. The Eagles must be disciplined. They need to gang-tackle and take good angles to the ball. If Barkley gets a bit of space, he can deliver big plays.

The Eagles defense hasn’t played a complete game in a while. They gave up 40 points to Dallas and then let the Saints score 13 points in the first half. The Eagles then let the Giants cut into a good lead in the season finale.

Jonathan Gannon has a great group of players. He needs them to come out and play at a high level and stay that way for 60 minutes. The Giants will make some plays. That stuff happens in the playoffs. But the Eagles can’t go to sleep for a long stretch. They need to have a shutdown mentality from the get-go.

The Eagles haven’t played a complete game as a team in a while. It would be great to see them come out and flex their muscles, showing the rest of the league that the team that started 13-1 is still here to be dealt with.

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