January 26, 20232 yr Author 5 minutes ago, Portyansky said: I never understood if he was such a huge fan, why he wasn't watching the biggest game of the year.... good grief Harold! Working that weekend night shift. Come on, Harold!
January 26, 20232 yr Author 4 hours ago, we_gotta_believe said: Full practice participant. Lines shift on a dime now as information that used to take a couple of days to hit the papers is blasted out within seconds. If you want to catch KC getting points at home on a line that's off by at least 1 or 1.5 - really rare - you have to do it in a matter of minutes.
January 26, 20232 yr Purdy is going to experience a pass rush he's never seen before......the eagles have to make him as uncomfortable as possible. I think the defensive line goes nuts this weekend......even Quinn gets in on the act.
January 27, 20232 yr Author The Eagles remain steady 2.5 point favorites as we head into the weekend. The total is up a full point to 46.5. Meanwhile, the AFC line has the Chiefs still laying 1.5. Right now, I'm considering a 6.5 point teaser (-130) using San Francisco and Cincinnati. So it would be: San Francisco +9 with Cincinnati +8, which sounds eminently possible.
January 27, 20232 yr 13 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The Eagles remain steady 2.5 point favorites as we head into the weekend. The total is up a full point to 46.5. Meanwhile, the AFC line has the Chiefs still laying 1.5. Right now, I'm considering a 6.5 point teaser (-130) using San Francisco and Cincinnati. So it would be: San Francisco +9 with Cincinnati +8, which sounds eminently possible. For the Eagles line, I’m seeing -3 in some places.
January 27, 20232 yr 21 hours ago, Hawkeye said: Lines shift on a dime now as information that used to take a couple of days to hit the papers is blasted out within seconds. If you want to catch KC getting points at home on a line that's off by at least 1 or 1.5 - really rare - you have to do it in a matter of minutes. Lines shift as big money and people that know what they are doing come in. So they know something we don't. General public has no sway on lines.
January 27, 20232 yr Author 16 minutes ago, Devaster said: Lines shift as big money and people that know what they are doing come in. So they know something we don't. General public has no sway on lines. Lines shift as Vegas either reacts to one-sided action or anticipates it. Vegas moved the Eagles line almost 4 points before the news broke that Hurts was going miss the Cowboys game. 69% of the action over in the AFC is on the Bengals.
January 28, 20232 yr On 1/27/2023 at 8:42 AM, Hawkeye said: Lines shift as Vegas either reacts to one-sided action or anticipates it. Vegas moved the Eagles line almost 4 points before the news broke that Hurts was going miss the Cowboys game. 69% of the action over in the AFC is on the Bengals. Exactly. But that is because people in the know and big money are getting involved. Vegas doesn't shift the line just because the general public is betting heavily on one side. That is free money for Vegas if Vegas trusts its line. However, when people in the know and reputable bettors come into the action and bet the other side then Vegas may start shifting the line to hedge their bets.
January 28, 20232 yr This one is confusing too. How are the Chiefs favored then? Unless everyone thinks the Bengals lose by 1 point. I guess the question is, is the age old phrasing that Vegas is looking for a 50/50 split in betting still accurate?
January 28, 20232 yr The issue with Chiefs line is due to the swings caused by the Mahomes injury and subsequent updates. A lot of that movement was preemptive. As for the adage that Vegas is always looking for a 50/50 split, it's not an absolute truth by any means, especially not in the regular season. We see the linesmakers shading a side while anticipating lopsided action all the time. Probably one of the biggest gambling misconceptions. But in the playoffs, especially with so much volume in these final two rounds, I don't think they're gonna take on too much risk in these spots.
January 28, 20232 yr Author 1 hour ago, Devaster said: Exactly. But that is because people in the know and big money are getting involved. Vegas doesn't shift the line just because the general public is betting heavily on one side. That is free money for Vegas if Vegas trusts its line. However, when people in the know and reputable bettors come into the action and bet the other side then Vegas may start shifting the line to hedge their bets. Lines move as the money comes in. Sports books certainly pay attention to sharp players but if squares overwhelmingly load up on one side of a game (or total or prop) Vegas moves the line to attract attention to the other side and offset risk. And as @we_gotta_believe points out above, the Bengals/Chiefs line has jumped the fence at least 4 times based on the constantly changing Mahomes news. Wagers came in guardrail to guardrail. Chiefs! Bengals! Chiefs! Bengals! So Vegas is keeping it tight, right down the middle.
January 28, 20232 yr Interesting, so at -3, we do get closer to 50/50. Curious to see what happens in the AM. Would think things settle at -3.
January 28, 20232 yr Author 11 minutes ago, Thrive said: Interesting, so at -3, we do get closer to 50/50. Curious to see what happens in the AM. Would think things settle at -3. That's why the hook matters, but do does the vig. I use MGM for line data and as of today, they have the Eagles -3 even money. Yesterday, they had the Eagles -2.5 -115, which is a big difference. Conversely, they have San Francisco getting the 3 -120.
January 28, 20232 yr 4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: That's why the hook matters, but do does the vig. I use MGM for line data and as of today, they have the Eagles -3 even money. Yesterday, they had the Eagles -2.5 -115, which is a big difference. Conversely, they have San Francisco getting the 3 -120. I’m an idiot so…
January 28, 20232 yr Author 1 minute ago, Thrive said: I’m an idiot so… All good. Generally, you risk $110 to win $100. That 10% is called the vigorish, or "the vig" in slang, which is essentially the commission the book keeps on losing bets. That's why people think Vegas wants an even amount bet on each side - 50/50 means it doesn't matter who covers, the house wins $10% regardless (not always the case but let's set that aside for this discussion). But there are many ways Vegas manipulates the system. We've been talking about the line moves in the Bengals/Chiefs game. That's one way. In the Niners/Eagles game, however, the line has been pretty consistent but the vigorish/price of the bet has been moving around. If you use the Eagles -3 at even money, you're betting $100 to get $100 back. However if you take the Niners +3 at -120, you're risking $120 to win $100 back. Make sense?
January 28, 20232 yr Author Here's how the line and prices have moved on this game. The price changes with the spread. Niners (+) are the left column and the Eagles (-) are on the right. Sat, Jan 28 8:25 AM ET (ET) +3.0 -120 -3.0 +100 Fri, Jan 27 1:05 PM ET (ET) +2.5 -105 -2.5 -115 Fri, Jan 27 1:00 PM ET (ET) +2.0 +100 -2.0 -120 Tue, Jan 24 1:00 PM ET (ET) +2.5 -105 -2.5 -115 Tue, Jan 24 12:35 PM ET (ET) +2.0 +100 -2.0 -120 Mon, Jan 23 3:50 PM ET (ET) +2.5 -105 -2.5 -115 Mon, Jan 23 9:08 AM ET (ET) +3.0 -115 -3.0 -105 Mon, Jan 23 8:53 AM ET (ET) +3.0 -125 -3.0 -105 Sun, Jan 22 11:13 PM ET (ET) +2.5 +100 -2.5 -120
January 28, 20232 yr 23 hours ago, EazyEaglez said: Shots fired. This was from 2021, but national media just decided to look past that and run with the story
January 28, 20232 yr 57 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: All good. Generally, you risk $110 to win $100. That 10% is called the vigorish, or "the vig" in slang, which is essentially the commission the book keeps on losing bets. That's why people think Vegas wants an even amount bet on each side - 50/50 means it doesn't matter who covers, the house wins $10% regardless (not always the case but let's set that aside for this discussion). But there are many ways Vegas manipulates the system. We've been talking about the line moves in the Bengals/Chiefs game. That's one way. In the Niners/Eagles game, however, the line has been pretty consistent but the vigorish/price of the bet has been moving around. If you use the Eagles -3 at even money, you're betting $100 to get $100 back. However if you take the Niners +3 at -120, you're risking $120 to win $100 back. Make sense? Makes sense. Thank you.
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