How would you feel if the Eagles traded down significantly and did something like this?

[proveagle]

 

Tested a few mocks trading down multiple times to maximize picks in the 2nd and 3rd round.  Gained 3 2nd round picks for 2024.  How would you feel if the draft went something like this?

[UK_EaglesFan89]

I personally wouldn’t like it. And look I’ll be honest I don’t know a lot about the above players but I’m not a fan of trading out of the first entirely. We have an opportunity to add both future talent AND acquire extra picks this year.

[rrfierce]

Its solid but not particularly exciting.

 

Something like this could possibly be the best way to improve the team in terms of filling all the holes with decent quality

 

[MidMoFo]

Daniel Jeremiah’s latest mock has Deonte Banks, Mazi Smith and Will McDonald IV going in round 1.

 https://www.nfl.com/_amp/daniel-jeremiah-2023-nfl-mock-draft-3-0-bucs-colts-panthers-texans-vikings-pick-
 

I wouldn’t mind a trade down from 10 to the low teens or early 20’s if there isn’t a player the Eagles love available and they can add some later picks, same with pick 30. 
 

I don’t like the idea of trading out of the first round all together. Players get picked in the first round because there’s less risk and more likely to contribute and become a cornerstone of your team 5+ years from now… you can’t just trade back to later rounds and expect all your picks will become quality players.

[Godfather]

No

[proveagle]

There are many similar analysis out there but here is one from: https://theathletic.com/3242308/2022/04/13/nfl-draft-analysis-2022/#:~:text=NFL Draft analysis%3A Where do Pro Bowlers come,percentage. ... 6 Guard ... 7 Center

You can see any some cases based on position were you can stack the probabilities significantly in your favor with some volume from round 2/3 vs a single pick in round 1.   Hard not to get enamored by those "sure things" in the first round, and I think in some cases like QB, Edge, DT, T, and maybe CB it makes some sense.

[proveagle]

On 3/22/2023 at 4:05 PM, MidMoFo said:

Daniel Jeremiah’s latest mock has Deonte Banks, Mazi Smith and Will McDonald IV going in round 1.

 https://www.nfl.com/_amp/daniel-jeremiah-2023-nfl-mock-draft-3-0-bucs-colts-panthers-texans-vikings-pick-
 

I wouldn’t mind a trade down from 10 to the low teens or early 20’s if there isn’t a player the Eagles love available and they can add some later picks, same with pick 30. 
 

I don’t like the idea of trading out of the first round all together. Players get picked in the first round because there’s less risk and more likely to contribute and become a cornerstone of your team 5+ years from now… you can’t just trade back to later rounds and expect all your picks will become quality players.

I agree you can't expect to trade back and expect all your picks become quality players but its about probabilities.  Eagles 2023 draft they have 4 picks in top 100 for 2023.  My proposed draft above they have 7 picks in top 100 for 2023, and another 3 in top 64 for 2024.

That's a lot more chances at high quality players given the odds based on position that give you a greater chance overall of hitting on pro bowl / all-pro players. (see my last post)

Player evaluation etc still matters here, and I am not advocating strongly in one direction as I am conflicted myself but curious about the discussion. 🙂

[judunno]

10 players is likely too many. and as someone said some of those guys will be 1st rounders. Im on team trade up from 10 trade down from 30

[MidMoFo]

15 hours ago, proveagle said:

There are many similar analysis out there but here is one from: https://theathletic.com/3242308/2022/04/13/nfl-draft-analysis-2022/#:~:text=NFL Draft analysis%3A Where do Pro Bowlers come,percentage. ... 6 Guard ... 7 Center

You can see any some cases based on position were you can stack the probabilities significantly in your favor with some volume from round 2/3 vs a single pick in round 1.   Hard not to get enamored by those "sure things" in the first round, and I think in some cases like QB, Edge, DT, T, and maybe CB it makes some sense.

So over half of the players to make a pro bowl in the last ten years were drafted in the first round? Even though less than 14% of the players drafted (including comp picks) are picked in the first round?

Sounds like the best chance of getting a pro bowl caliber player is to make as many 1st round picks as possible.

The 2 lowest % share of pro bowls by position are Guard and RB, two low valued positions when it comes to 1st round picks (meaning very few players at those positions, even when considered elite, get drafted in round 1)

[proveagle]

3 hours ago, MidMoFo said:

 

Sounds like the best chance of getting a pro bowl caliber player is to make as many 1st round picks as possible.

 

Yes if you can acquire 1st round picks as easily as you can 2nd and 3rd round picks.  The higher # of 2nd and 3rd round picks depending on position could net you a higher probability of a probowl/all-pro player.

In my example, getting 10 picks in the top 100 vs 4 picks in top 100 could present quite an advantage depending on the positions picked.  Other factors impact if of course like what traits a team prioritizes and depth in draft based on those traits etc etc.

My personal feeling is unless you think you have a "sure thing" based on the traits that show the most promise for the player to maximize ability to hit their ceiling you are probably better off increases the # of chances to find players that have the highest likelihood to hit their ceiling balance with highest potential ceiling.  I am sure at this point they have quants on teams doing this type of analysis.

[NOTW]

Nope.

Give up the chance to draft in the top 10?  You only get that chance from a losing season.  Take advantage of taking a top prospect.  Maybe trade back a few spots but that's it.

[MidMoFo]

2 hours ago, NOTW said:

Nope.

Give up the chance to draft in the top 10?  You only get that chance from a losing season.  Take advantage of taking a top prospect.  Maybe trade back a few spots but that's it.

Exactly. Top 10 is even more important.

By the numbers… over half of the pro bowlers were drafted in the first round. 28% of the pro bowlers were from rounds 2 AND 3. So double the amount of total players from rounds 2&3 account for half the number of pro bowlers.

By averages, you would have to get 4 picks in rounds 2 & 3 to equal one 1st rounder. So yeah, I guess if you can get 4 total 2nd and 3rd rounders for each 1st round pick the numbers would work out. A top 10 pick would naturally be even higher.

[DeathByEagle]

Wouldn't have to worry about it cause it will not happen. They may trade back from 10 but they will get a 2023 first rounder back in the deal. They might trade out of the 30th pick but they will make at least 1 first round pick this year. 

[Cheesteakitis]

yeah don’t see this as an option according to this we would have 5 second round picks next year including ours and the saints.