Narrowing Down the First 2 Picks

[EaglesAddict]

Now that the pre-draft visitations are over and with the tracking of the Eagles' pre-draft visits or other notable "interest" in players, let's try to narrow down who will be most likely in play at 10 and 30...or perhaps better stated as our first 2 selections (that will be either at 10 and 30 or somewhere relatively close to those slots after any possible trading).

Reference our in house draft prospect interest tracker in the NFL Draft section of this board.

 

Going by just pre-draft visits, the most heavily represented position we are showing interest in is DT (6 reported prospects), followed by DB with 7 (5 CBs and 2 Safeties), 5 Edge Rushers, 5 OTs, 2 RBs, 1 Guard and 1 QB.  That's 26 of an allotted possible 30 visits.  Either they didn't use the other 4 visits or nobody reported them.

Of the DT prospects, only Jalen Carter is worth the #10.  3 others could be in play for 30

Of the DBs, they notably didn't have Gonzalez or Witherspoon in, and nobody else that would really be in play at 10.  At 30 (or with a trade down from 10), there are several in play.

Of the Edge Rushers, 3 would be in play at 10 and 2 in play at 30.

Of the OTs, 2 would be in play at 10 and the other 3 in play with a trade down from 10 or at 30.

Of the RBs, one would be in play at 10 (you know who that is!).

At 10, I'd rank the possibilities as such (again, only based on pre-draft visits and guessing what Howie will do, not necessarily what I would do)

1. Jalen Carter

2. Paris Johnson

3. Lukas Van Ness

4. Peter Skoronski

5. Nolan Smith

6. Myles Murphy

7. Bijan Robinson

At 30, I'd rank them as such (but could be impacted by who they pick at 10, obviously)

1. Darnell Wright

2. Anton Harrison

3. Bryan Bresee

4. Mazi Smith

5. Gervon Dexter

6. Will McDonald

7. BJ Ojulari

8. Joey Porter

9. Emmanuel Forbes

10. Kelee Ringo

11. Brian Branch

Again, this is based on what I think Howie will do, not what I want him to do.

So, most likely pairs of players drafted ranked...

1. Van Ness and Harrison - I think Carter and Johnson will be gone before 10.

2. Skoronski and Dexter - I think they'll trade down from 30 and see Dexter as a player they'd like.

3. Smith and Harrison

4. Johnson and Mazi Smith - if by some chance Paris Johnson makes it to 10, I think he'll be the pick (if Carter doesn't). And Smith is the "stick and pick" at 30.

5. Robinson and Wright or Harrison - Eagles go for the gusto and take Robinson, then either trade up from 30 for Wright or take Harrison at 30.

What say you?

 

[time2rock]

I’ve been saying for quite some time, strong gut feeling our first pick will be DL.  
 

Really anything is in play with next pick.  I think we end up trading that pick.  

[opa-opa]

Not sure at this point why would any GM in NFL trade with Howie...

[Cochis_Calhoun]

Darnell Wright and Broderick Jones are both as likely to be picked at 10 as Johnson, there isn't a clear leader in that race, the idea you have to take Johnson at 10 but you can wait until 30 to take Wright is just wrong headed. Jeremiah thinks Wright is the best tackle prospect after Skoronski, PFF and ESPN think Jones is, Kiper thinks Johnson is.

By my count, the Raiders, Bears, Titans, Jets, Patriots, Bucc's and Steelers all need help at Tackle, and they all pick before our second pick.

I don't see ten being a tackle. I just hope we don't reach for someone like Nolan Smith, I'd rather they traded back with the Patriot's so they could take their pick at Tackle while we get some extra picks and take Smith closer to his true value as a prospect, or even better take O'Cyrus Torrence as a Guard, to play Guard.

[Captain F]

Howie is going to shake things up and go Bijan at 10. 

[NYEagle]

5 minutes ago, Captain F said:

Howie is going to shake things up and go Bijan at 10. 

I am no scout, but I watched highlights of both Robinson and Gibbs.....is it just me or does Gibbs just look more explosive?  If there was a way to get the top OL or DL (that we have rated at 10) and get Gibbs at 30....well I'd be good with that, especially if we trade back and get more picks like back to the teens and back from like 30 to high 2nd round with extra picks.  And still get Gibbs and a defensive lineman.  All though, that being said, we are not going to be picking at 10 for a looooong time hopefully, if you have someone you think can be an absolute stud, difference maker, take him at 10.  We have 12 picks next year to fill in!

[Kz!]

I honestly can't imagine us taking a RB at 10. If they truly want to target Robinson, I'd guess they'd trade down from 10 and go after him with whatever first rounder they got back in return. Still hard for me to imagine snagging a RB in the first round when we have much more pressing issues elsewhere, and the RBBC approach negating the need for a star #1 back.

[EaglesAddict]

2 hours ago, Cochis_Calhoun said:

Darnell Wright and Broderick Jones are both as likely to be picked at 10 as Johnson, there isn't a clear leader in that race, the idea you have to take Johnson at 10 but you can wait until 30 to take Wright is just wrong headed. Jeremiah thinks Wright is the best tackle prospect after Skoronski, PFF and ESPN think Jones is, Kiper thinks Johnson is.

By my count, the Raiders, Bears, Titans, Jets, Patriots, Bucc's and Steelers all need help at Tackle, and they all pick before our second pick.

I don't see ten being a tackle. I just hope we don't reach for someone like Nolan Smith, I'd rather they traded back with the Patriot's so they could take their pick at Tackle while we get some extra picks and take Smith closer to his true value as a prospect, or even better take O'Cyrus Torrence as a Guard, to play Guard.

I really don't think Wright will be in play at 10.  I think he'd be more of a trade down from 10 target or a trade up from 30 target.  And while I do think Jones would be in play (for the Eagles, in reality), we didn't have him in for a pre-draft visit...which is what I'm basing this on.  

[EaglesAddict]

29 minutes ago, NYEagle said:

I am no scout, but I watched highlights of both Robinson and Gibbs.....is it just me or does Gibbs just look more explosive?  If there was a way to get the top OL or DL (that we have rated at 10) and get Gibbs at 30....well I'd be good with that, especially if we trade back and get more picks like back to the teens and back from like 30 to high 2nd round with extra picks.  And still get Gibbs and a defensive lineman.  All though, that being said, we are not going to be picking at 10 for a looooong time hopefully, if you have someone you think can be an absolute stud, difference maker, take him at 10.  We have 12 picks next year to fill in!

I'm no scout either, lol.  But, I believe what the analysts think is that Bijan has better size and can do it all (3-down back, power between tackles/speed out wide, elusive, good pass route runner/catcher and pass blocker) whereas Gibbs is seen as more of a 3rd down back who is a bit smaller.

[EaglesAddict]

16 hours ago, time2rock said:

I’ve been saying for quite some time, strong gut feeling our first pick will be DL.  
 

Really anything is in play with next pick.  I think we end up trading that pick.  

My gut is telling me it's going to be OL.  But yeah, either way it's gonna be a lineman, lol.  That's just what Howie does...and it's smart.  I just hope that the player he picks turns out to be a long term pillar.  Because if we have to watch Bijan tearing it up for the next few years (especially if he winds up in the NFC East) and the player we took at 10 busts, that's gonna be a hard pill to swallow.

[time2rock]

17 minutes ago, EaglesAddict said:

My gut is telling me it's going to be OL.  But yeah, either way it's gonna be a lineman, lol.  That's just what Howie does...and it's smart.  I just hope that the player he picks turns out to be a long term pillar.  Because if we have to watch Bijan tearing it up for the next few years (especially if he winds up in the NFC East) and the player we took at 10 busts, that's gonna be a hard pill to swallow.

Regarding OL ... typically you are drafting OTs with 1s ... not OGs.  You could draft an OL you plan to eventually move to OT but more immediately will play OG. Only catch is, absent a major injury or something tragic, there isn't going to be an open OT spot for several years.  Mailata, who is only 26, is locked in for several years (and with the recent contract restructure he isn't going anywhere).  And with Lane's contract situation (see below), he likely isn't going anywhere for at least 3 more years as well. So to take a player you plan to move to OT in 3 or more years just doesn't make sense to me ... unless he is a super special prospect, and I'm just not getting that from any of the top OL in this class.  

[judunno]

17 hours ago, time2rock said:

I’ve been saying for quite some time, strong gut feeling our first pick will be DL.  
 

Really anything is in play with next pick.  I think we end up trading that pick.  

Agreed I don't think they're making that pick at 30.

[judunno]

4 minutes ago, time2rock said:

Regarding OL ... typically you are drafting OTs with 1s ... not OGs.  You could draft an OL you plan to eventually move to OT but more immediately will play OG. Only catch is, absent a major injury or something tragic, there isn't going to be an open OT spot for several years.  Mailata, who is only 26, is locked in for several years (and with the recent contract restructure he isn't going anywhere).  And with Lane's contract situation (see below), he likely isn't going anywhere for at least 3 more years as well. So to take a player you plan to move to OT in 3 or more years just doesn't make sense to me ... unless he is a super special prospect, and I'm just not getting that from any of the top OL in this class.  

Need the depth. I'm not sure how much longer Lane will hold on and injuries don't reduce at his age. When you have a 1/4 billion QB you better have enough depth to protect him. Worth having the insurance IMO. I'd rather not have some guy you have to develop for years to need to step in when Lane isn't available.

[EaglesAddict]

18 minutes ago, time2rock said:

Regarding OL ... typically you are drafting OTs with 1s ... not OGs.  You could draft an OL you plan to eventually move to OT but more immediately will play OG. Only catch is, absent a major injury or something tragic, there isn't going to be an open OT spot for several years.  Mailata, who is only 26, is locked in for several years (and with the recent contract restructure he isn't going anywhere).  And with Lane's contract situation (see below), he likely isn't going anywhere for at least 3 more years as well. So to take a player you plan to move to OT in 3 or more years just doesn't make sense to me ... unless he is a super special prospect, and I'm just not getting that from any of the top OL in this class.  

I can understand that thinking.  But, I think it's a depth thing and Lane hasn't been the epitome of health lately.  Paris Johnson can play Guard (played there for 2 seasons before moving to OT) and Skoronski can play both as well.  Jones would be a projection at G.  As we stand right now, if we lose Mailata or Lane for any extended period of time, we go to Driscoll...and while Driscoll is solid, it's definitely a drop-off.  

This is almost certainly going to be Kelce's last season. Lane said he plans on playing 2 more seasons (not 3).  Next year's starting OL could be Mailata/Dickerson/Jurgens/Johnson/Johnson...with Paris (or Jones/Skoronski) providing depth at OT as well.  I think they value OL slightly more than DL.

[T-1000]

OL or DL at 10, take it to the bank. The orher or a DB will be addressed with the 2nd pick after a trade down to the late 30's.

Gun to my head and I have to guess right now, Nolan Smith and Kelee Ringo and I think they move Ringo to S. 

[time2rock]

19 minutes ago, EaglesAddict said:

I can understand that thinking.  But, I think it's a depth thing and Lane hasn't been the epitome of health lately.  Paris Johnson can play Guard (played there for 2 seasons before moving to OT) and Skoronski can play both as well.  Jones would be a projection at G.  As we stand right now, if we lose Mailata or Lane for any extended period of time, we go to Driscoll...and while Driscoll is solid, it's definitely a drop-off.  

This is almost certainly going to be Kelce's last season. Lane said he plans on playing 2 more seasons (not 3).  Next year's starting OL could be Mailata/Dickerson/Jurgens/Johnson/Johnson...with Paris (or Jones/Skoronski) providing depth at OT as well.  I think they value OL slightly more than DL.

I certainly recognize the need for depth and also the fact that a couple guys are nearing the ends of their careers.  I just don't see how he goes after only 2 years with $33.6M in dead money tied to 2025.  

Big V was more than servicable as a swing tackle.  He was taken in the 5th.  

[EaglesAddict]

22 minutes ago, time2rock said:

I certainly recognize the need for depth and also the fact that a couple guys are nearing the ends of their careers.  I just don't see how he goes after only 2 years with $33.6M in dead money tied to 2025.  

Big V was more than servicable as a swing tackle.  He was taken in the 5th.  

I don't disagree.  But if Carter is off the board by 10 (more than likely), which DL as a player is better than Paris, Jones or Skoronski?  Myles Murphy? Van Ness?  Nolan Smith?  I don't think any of those 3 guys are better players than the OL trio.  That's subjective, of course.

[Godfather]

2 hours ago, Captain F said:

Howie is going to shake things up and go Bijan at 10. 

Take em

[Cochis_Calhoun]

1 minute ago, time2rock said:

I certainly recognize the need for depth and also the fact that a couple guys are nearing the ends of their careers.  I just don't see how he goes after only 2 years with $33.6M in dead money tied to 2025.  

I'm with you, I think drafting offensive tackle at 10 to have him compete at Guard for at least two years would be ridiculous, plus  Fashanu at Penn State will likely come out next year with another year of college seasoning and he genuinely could be something special.

I just don't see a blue chip standout guy at tackle this year, Skoronski is a safe low ceiling high floor guy who is solid in terms of build and technique, Johnson, Wright and Jones all have weaknesses.

[judunno]

3 hours ago, Captain F said:

Howie is going to shake things up and go Bijan at 10. 

Bijan will go before 10 the way he's being hyped.

[judunno]

You left Tyree Wilson off of your list.

[time2rock]

2 hours ago, EaglesAddict said:

I don't disagree.  But if Carter is off the board by 10 (more than likely), which DL as a player is better than Paris, Jones or Skoronski?  Myles Murphy? Van Ness?  Nolan Smith?  I don't think any of those 3 guys are better players than the OL trio.  That's subjective, of course.

Maybe Tyree Wilson is there?  Or maybe Howie trades down to a team wanting a QB.  I don't think we're going to end up picking at 10 ... I think he either moves up for a player he is targeting (like he did Davis last year, Smith in '21) or he trades back to get more picks.  I just can't decide which is more likely.  

[EaglesAddict]

30 minutes ago, time2rock said:

Maybe Tyree Wilson is there?  Or maybe Howie trades down to a team wanting a QB.  I don't think we're going to end up picking at 10 ... I think he either moves up for a player he is targeting (like he did Davis last year, Smith in '21) or he trades back to get more picks.  I just can't decide which is more likely.  

Yeah the 10 spot looks tricky this year.  I just can't imagine trading up from 10 for the price that will cost vs. the player.  I don't think any player in this draft (including QBs) is worth the price of a trade up.  I mean, is Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson or Jalen Carter that transcendent of a player where it's worth it?  IMO, no.  They're def good prospects, but are they that good where it's worth it to trade up and give up valuable resources?    

Last year, the only player I thought was that good was Sauce Gardner.  This year, I just don't see any one particular prospect that screams "great player, go get him!" at the cost of trading up from 10.

Now, trading up from 30 is a different story.  I can see where it could def be worthwhile to trade up from there to land a prospect that would be measurably better than what is likely to be available at 30.  

 

 

[time2rock]

3 minutes ago, EaglesAddict said:

Yeah the 10 spot looks tricky this year.  I just can't imagine trading up from 10 for the price that will cost vs. the player.  I don't think any player in this draft (including QBs) is worth the price of a trade up.  I mean, is Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson or Jalen Carter that transcendent of a player where it's worth it?  IMO, no.  They're def good prospects, but are they that good where it's worth it to trade up and give up valuable resources?    

Last year, the only player I thought was that good was Sauce Gardner.  This year, I just don't see any one particular prospect that screams "great player, go get him!" at the cost of trading up from 10.

Now, trading up from 30 is a different story.  I can see where it could def be worthwhile to trade up from there to land a prospect that would be measurably better than what is likely to be available at 30.  

Ross Tucker is thinking the same as you.  

https://www.audacy.com/national/sports/what-ross-tucker-thinks-eagles-will-do-with-10th-pick

[EaglesAddict]

10 minutes ago, time2rock said:

Ross Tucker is thinking the same as you.  

https://www.audacy.com/national/sports/what-ross-tucker-thinks-eagles-will-do-with-10th-pick

Nice.  I'm starting to think Darnell Wright will be in play too.  I didn't see him as a possible pick at 10 but I'm starting to waver.  But my gut is def telling me it's going to be OL at 10.  And, I think the ideal scenario is that they can swing a small trade back...say, no further than to 14th...and land an OL there while getting an extra pick or 2.  I believe that is at the top of the "what Howie will do" list.

This, of course, is if Carter, Wilson or Anderson aren't there at 10...and I don't think any of those 3 will be.

Wouldn't it be something if something like this happened: Trade down to 14 with the Pats and get a 3rd rounder (pick 76).  Draft one of the top 4 OL (or DL) at 14.  Then use that 3rd rounder to trade up from 30 in order to snag Bijan.