Survivor Season 40: Winners at War

[Gern Blanston]

Definitely late to the comment party, didn't get around to watching the finale until Friday and was aggressively avoiding spoilers...

Great analysis and review above.

Tony was by far the best player this season and absolutely has to be viewed as (arguably) the all time great in this game.  That nobody wrote his name down all season blows my mind.

Probably hard to make the decision/move in the moment, but as @20Safety_Hazards mentions above, Natalie's only real chance in the Final 4 would have been to give up the immunity and go head to head with Tony in the fire challenge for any legit shot at the title.

Fire Tokens - just based on the way it was hyped all season long, I think its a safe bet, it will be a part of the game moving forward.  It wasn't as gimmicky as it first sounded and does throw an added wrinkle into strategy and decision making.

My fix for Edge - Have one for everyone booted pre-merge.  Winner goes back in the game at the merge, maybe 2nd and 3rd place can stay, everyone else goes home.  Have one last one no later than final 7 or 8.

I missed having the reunion show, but was happy to hear Jeff say they're committed to coming back in the Fall.

My guess is the next full All Star Season probably won't happen again until the 50th.  Probably see a "Fans vs Faves" or a "Blood vs Water" type mixed in maybe before then.

[20Safety_Hazards]

Their was an argument to be made for sending Michelle in. Michelle was the best at fire and would have had a better chance to beat tony. The fall back being if Tony and Sarah are in jury together they may split the votes and let Natalie come in and steal first. If Natalie takes 6 votes and Sarah and Tony split the rest, Natalie wins. But the reality is, Natalie lost the game when she left Sarah and Tony in the game at final 4 assuring one of them got the finals. If She’s sitting next to Ben and Michelle she has an argument to be made. Ben is not well liked on the jury and Michelle was always on the wrong side of the vote. 
 

Adam Klein recently did an AMA on reddit and made an interesting point on that idol play episode. When both Michelle and Natalie were immune they should have voted Tony. At best you vote out Tony with an idol in his pocket, worst case he burns his idol. It’s a win win. If Tony didn’t play his idol, he’d have been guaranteed final 4. Either way someone from the 4 was going home, but this way you force Tony to burn his idol or go home. But then after that, they should have forced fire, try and eliminate Sarah and make Denise realize she was on the bottom of her alliance and, if she comes back in the game, that’s a possible number. 

[Gern Blanston]

17 hours ago, 20Safety_Hazards said:

Their was an argument to be made for sending Michelle in. Michelle was the best at fire and would have had a better chance to beat tony. The fall back being if Tony and Sarah are in jury together they may split the votes and let Natalie come in and steal first. If Natalie takes 6 votes and Sarah and Tony split the rest, Natalie wins. But the reality is, Natalie lost the game when she left Sarah and Tony in the game at final 4 assuring one of them got the finals. If She’s sitting next to Ben and Michelle she has an argument to be made. Ben is not well liked on the jury and Michelle was always on the wrong side of the vote. 
 

Adam Klein recently did an AMA on reddit and made an interesting point on that idol play episode. When both Michelle and Natalie were immune they should have voted Tony. At best you vote out Tony with an idol in his pocket, worst case he burns his idol. It’s a win win. If Tony didn’t play his idol, he’d have been guaranteed final 4. Either way someone from the 4 was going home, but this way you force Tony to burn his idol or go home. But then after that, they should have forced fire, try and eliminate Sarah and make Denise realize she was on the bottom of her alliance and, if she comes back in the game, that’s a possible number. 

Interesting "what if" exercise...  Do you think Sarah would have siphoned off that many Tony votes?  Maybe Ben?  Denise?  Who else might flip from Tony?  I guess its plausible...   

I didn't blame them for getting Denise out when they did, if you swap her out for Sarah on that boot, you then run the risk of sitting next to Denise at the end who might have had a stronger case to make than Sarah.

[20Safety_Hazards]

15 minutes ago, Gern Blanston said:

Interesting "what if" exercise...  Do you think Sarah would have siphoned off that many Tony votes?  Maybe Ben?  Denise?  Who else might flip from Tony?  I guess its plausible...   

I didn't blame them for getting Denise out when they did, if you swap her out for Sarah on that boot, you then run the risk of sitting next to Denise at the end who might have had a stronger case to make than Sarah.

Several jury members respected Sarah's game and believed she had a much better social game than Tony.  Tony made the big moves, but Sarah was the glue.  She easily get's Sophie who, if healthy, may have been a more persuasive voice arguing for her on the jury.   I still think Tony wins but the final vote is much closer and Natalie probably comes in third with Sarah getting 4-5 votes herself, maybe even taking one of Natalies. The problem for Natalie is how does she get to 6 votes. That's the minimum she would need to win.  She only had 4. But without Sarah, Natalie likely needed the majority or at least 8 and hope that Michelle stole a vote or two from Tony. In fact several jurors admitted that they wanted throw a vote or two to michelle but felt it created a risk that Natalie would backdoor her way to a victory.  With Sarah, I guarantee you people are willing to put her name down thinking she played the best game, thus its much more likely that there is a scenario where the total votes needed to win is lower.  I don't think Natalie wins regardless, but I believe Natalie thought she had move votes from the edge.  Thus if she could find a way to lower the bar of votes needed to win (a la a 3 way split vote), she stands a better chance of winning. 

On Denise, the problem wasn't targeting Denise.  It was more the logic of the move.  Yes, there is a risk of Sitting next to Denise at the end but I think Sarah's resume is just as good as Denise so its a wash.  The reason I say force fire is twofold.  One, Sarah was so clearly Tony's ride or die.  Everyone knew it. You take her out you, you can at least potentially make a play on the other two.  But more importantly, by forcing a tie vote and going to fire, you force Tony and Ben to reveal their hand.  Denise now sees she was at the bottom of their alliance and that Tony and Ben were willing to cut their losses of Denise for Sarah.  Yeah, Denise could ultimately decide to go with Tony and Ben anyway, but at least if you're Michelle and Natalie you give yourself at least the potential to establish a relationship with Denise.  Say, look we voted to save you, when your alliance voted to get rid of you. And even if she goes to jury, the last moment for Denise before leaving the game was Michelle and Natalie giving her a chance to stay in the game.  There are just too many positives to the scenario to just roll over.  Worst case scenario, Sarah wins fire and you still get rid of one of the four like you planned.   But by voting for Sarah, you basically let the majority pick who was going home.  You had power in that situation and you gave it away.  Same problem with the second vote. By bringing in Sarah you let Sarah control the vote, not yourself.  Natalie should have told Sarah that Michelle had the idol and see if she could convince Sarah to bring her over.  That way, if Sarah flips, you play it on yourself, you stay safe and its more likely you nulify the votes.  Instead, she played the idol on herself,  Michelle got the votes and but for Sarah, Michelle goes home.  Natalie found advantages, she was a beast on the Edge and she won one immunity, but her strategic game... just wasn't that good.  

 

[Gern Blanston]

On 5/19/2020 at 2:24 PM, 20Safety_Hazards said:

Several jury members respected Sarah's game and believed she had a much better social game than Tony.  Tony made the big moves, but Sarah was the glue.  She easily get's Sophie who, if healthy, may have been a more persuasive voice arguing for her on the jury.   I still think Tony wins but the final vote is much closer and Natalie probably comes in third with Sarah getting 4-5 votes herself, maybe even taking one of Natalies. The problem for Natalie is how does she get to 6 votes. That's the minimum she would need to win.  She only had 4. But without Sarah, Natalie likely needed the majority or at least 8 and hope that Michelle stole a vote or two from Tony. In fact several jurors admitted that they wanted throw a vote or two to michelle but felt it created a risk that Natalie would backdoor her way to a victory.  With Sarah, I guarantee you people are willing to put her name down thinking she played the best game, thus its much more likely that there is a scenario where the total votes needed to win is lower.  I don't think Natalie wins regardless, but I believe Natalie thought she had move votes from the edge.  Thus if she could find a way to lower the bar of votes needed to win (a la a 3 way split vote), she stands a better chance of winning. 

On Denise, the problem wasn't targeting Denise.  It was more the logic of the move.  Yes, there is a risk of Sitting next to Denise at the end but I think Sarah's resume is just as good as Denise so its a wash.  The reason I say force fire is twofold.  One, Sarah was so clearly Tony's ride or die.  Everyone knew it. You take her out you, you can at least potentially make a play on the other two.  But more importantly, by forcing a tie vote and going to fire, you force Tony and Ben to reveal their hand.  Denise now sees she was at the bottom of their alliance and that Tony and Ben were willing to cut their losses of Denise for Sarah.  Yeah, Denise could ultimately decide to go with Tony and Ben anyway, but at least if you're Michelle and Natalie you give yourself at least the potential to establish a relationship with Denise.  Say, look we voted to save you, when your alliance voted to get rid of you. And even if she goes to jury, the last moment for Denise before leaving the game was Michelle and Natalie giving her a chance to stay in the game.  There are just too many positives to the scenario to just roll over.  Worst case scenario, Sarah wins fire and you still get rid of one of the four like you planned.   But by voting for Sarah, you basically let the majority pick who was going home.  You had power in that situation and you gave it away.  Same problem with the second vote. By bringing in Sarah you let Sarah control the vote, not yourself.  Natalie should have told Sarah that Michelle had the idol and see if she could convince Sarah to bring her over.  That way, if Sarah flips, you play it on yourself, you stay safe and its more likely you nulify the votes.  Instead, she played the idol on herself,  Michelle got the votes and but for Sarah, Michelle goes home.  Natalie found advantages, she was a beast on the Edge and she won one immunity, but her strategic game... just wasn't that good.  

 

LOL - Have you auditioned yet?!?  That's some damn good strategery right there!

 

Natalie needed to thread the needle and most likely needed to sit next to Michelle and Ben for any realistic shot.  I guess Sarah played a good social game and that might have helped her with jury votes.  I think/hope that any combination with Tony in the final 3 he would have won.  Any threesome without him I think probably would have been a closer vote because they all had flaws in their total resume that would have been more picked over.  Tony was pretty much straight A's across the board.

[20Safety_Hazards]

Honestly I’d love to play. I auditioned in college, but never got the call. But today I just don’t have the kind of job where I can take off for 40 days. 

As for Tony, I think he wins Regardless of who was final 3 unless someone had just a balls to the walls finish that left Tony out of all the votes. But no one felt they needed to do that which was their mistake. 

[VaBeach_Eagle]

Tony Vlachos reveals all his antics we DIDN'T see on Survivor

 

 

Quote

 

By Dalton Ross 

May 14, 2020 at 01:58 AM EDT

https://ew.com/tv/survivor-tony-vlachos-finale-winners-at-war-interview/

Warning: This article contains spoilers about Wednesday’s season finale of Survivor: Winners at War.

He won the war.

Tony Vlachos turned in a dominant performance in Survivor: Winners at War. Going up against the stiffest competition the show has ever seen, the cop from New Jersey and Cagayan victor excelled in every facet of the game — social, strategic, and challenge — and he did it all while perched in a freakin’ Spy Nest. Whether he was winning four immunity challenges, finding a hidden immunity idol, overcoming an extortion by getting people from different alliances to give him tokens, or dramatically flipping the vote at the last second for a shocking blindside even his biggest ally did not see coming, Tony set a new standard for excellence in the game. Nobody cast a single vote against him all season. And nobody held it against him when he voted them out. He is the champion of champions. The second two-time winner ever. The king to stand beside the queen.

How confident was Tony that he had the votes at the end to win the game? And how weird was it to have those votes naming him the $2 million winner read via webcam due to a pandemic? How does this win stack up to his Cagayan victory? And what can he tell us about what we didn’t see this season on TV? We asked the newest face on the Mount Rushmore of greatest Survivor players ever all that and more.

ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY: Congratulations, Tony on an epic outing.

TONY VLACHOS: Oh my God. Thank you so much, Dalton. Oh my God. I just finished watching the show. It is so epic.

Were you feeling pretty confident when you walked off that Tribal Council set 10 months ago that you had won?

You know how I am. I'm never confident until I see the final result. I'm always, always thinking. My wheels are always spinning. I'm always keeping myself on my toes. So, I'd never just let my cards down. So I can never say I'm confident. I'm always giving some kind of doubt in my head. So I just don't slip on anybody and get caught off guard.

 

Well, I'm sure you're doing the jury math in your head, and then they showed the votes on the episode, and we see that Tyson, Jeremy, Ethan, and Parvati all voted for Natalie instead of you. Any votes that you were surprised you either got or did not get?

I'm disappointed. I'm disappointed in Parvati actually because I know Parvati respects the game, and I'm not knocking Natalie whatsoever. She did amazing. I watched it on the TV, but just because she did great in the game for the last five days, I did great for 39 days. So I was kind of upset. If the votes weren't going to come to me, I think Michele deserves to get the votes, because she played 39 days in the game, dodging bullets. It's a war, and she had to be there dodging landmines, and the game is part of a strategy, influence, and goals. It's a lot to do with that.

Natalie did crush it on the Edge, and that's a whole totally different game as far as I'm concerned, but I was shocked that Pavarti did that. Ethan again, for no fault of my own, I never got to meet him. So he, like, how's he going to vote for me? He never even got to talk to me or say hello to me. But I wasn't surprised that Jeremy, I know why he voted for Natalie. I definitely understand that. Natalie's like family to him. So, family comes first.

He told me before the game that winners shouldn't vote for someone from the Edge.

Yeah, but I forgive him because I put myself in his shoes and I'm saying, "What if Sarah had made it to the end?” I don't care if she was a goat. I don't care if she was dragged in. I don't care if she did nothing to get there. I would have still given Sarah my vote just for loyalty. And that's how it is. You got to understand that. You got to respect that, I guess, right?

How does this win — beyond the money, because obviously you got double the money this time — but how does this win stack up for you compared to your previous victory in Cagayan?

Oh man, let me tell you about that. I mean, it still hasn't even settled in that, like, I'm watching myself on TV and I'm like, "Oh my God. How was I that patient in the beginning? Oh my goodness, how did I do that? How did I do that? How did I avoid getting any votes on me?" And for the first time in my Survivor career, that Ben blindside was the first time that I was not included in the vote. That's the first time in my career that I was ever blindsided by a vote. Most, every single vote off, or person that got booted, I was always involved in it or I knew where the votes were going. That was the first time. And I'm like, "Wow!" So this time, this season, I just went through everything. I went through the social game. I went from winning challenges that I'd never done before. I got blindsided — that never happened to me before. I built a Spy Nest. So, there were a lot of firsts for me this time around. It was insane.

Having watched you for three seasons, I know you're always up to something, but when you have 20 winners out there and the Edge of Extinction and all this stuff, there's only so much they can show on TV. So hit me up with some things that happened out there that you wish had made it to air?

Oh, man, where do I begin, man? There's so many. Even from day one. Sandra, as a matter of fact, she stole my Spy Bunker! I was building it with her because I trusted her. And then I wind up finding out she was ratting me out to Kim that I was spying by the well. It was just so many things.

Me and Nick and Wendell and Sandra formed an alliance and we called ourselves the Justice System. And then when Sandra tried to blindside me, we said, "Uh-oh, the system is corrupt! We have to find another way of getting by the game." I was out every single night, every single night, I was out making fires, looking for idols, searching the jungle, making fake idols. I was doing it all, Dalton. I did not sleep.

You made a fake idol? What's the deal with the fake idol?

All right, so I made a fake idol and I showed it to Nick, and that's another reason why a lot of people watch it and they comment on Twitter. I've seen it. "Oh, Nick is dumb. He helped people." No, Nick wasn't dumb. Nick was playing it safe. He was a little bit afraid. Because I told them I had two idols. I showed him two idols! I woke him up in the middle of the night when he was a bit disoriented. And I said, "Come with me." And I showed him the fake idol. And he thought it was real because it was late at night. He was in the middle of his sleep. And I said, "I got you. I got your back, Nick. I got your back. Anybody tries anything, I got your back. And if they try anything on me, I'm going to use my idols." So there were a lot of things that people were confused about because they didn't show it. But there's a lot of things that went on.

The most impactful moment of the entire finale was you and Sarah after battling at fire. Have you ever felt lower in this game than after securing your place in the final three, which should be your happiest moment, but at the expense of your partner in Sarah?

Watching that back right now, I was in full tears, man. I usually try to act tough in front of my kids and my wife. I tried to hold back tears, even though they want to come out. But, this time, I couldn't even hold it. I couldn't hold back. Man, I was balling like a baby, man. That was so impactful. I can't believe that. That hurt me so bad. I mean, it needed to be done in order for me to win, I guess, so I'm happy with that, of course. But that hurts so bad, man.

Our dream — Sarah and I, we would always say, "Imagine Cops ‘R’ Us at the end." But now thinking about it, Sarah would have kicked my a** at the final Tribal. So, I guess it worked out perfectly for me, but it was so hurtful, man. That was the worst, that was the worst feeling in the world.

If Sarah beats you at fire, how do you think she does against Natalie and Michele?

I would hope Sarah wins. She 100% gets my vote. I don't know for sure, but I truly believe Sarah would win. I mean, you've seen, there was plenty of opportunities to try to break up me and Sarah, and Sarah was vulnerable while I was protected and nobody even wanted to get her out. That was her social game. I seen it with Kim. I seen it with Sophie. I seen it with Ben. I seen it with Denise. I seen it with everybody. So she's great at what she does. I mean, she's a great Survivor player. And I think she learned from the best! I think she gave me credit for my Cagayan game.

At any point, over 39 days, did you ever feel like you were in serious danger in this game? We never saw your name written down once. I'm sure you got nervous and you were worried as anyone would be out there, but did you ever feel like you were in serious doo-doo at any point in this game?

Honestly, I don't think there was a point where I really thought that I was endangered like that. I don't remember being in like panic mode, like, "Oh my God, this is my night. I'm going home tonight." I never felt like that. And that's mind-boggling to me how that happened in the game. But I guess it all just goes down with me being goofy. Me just making everybody laugh. Me keeping my shoulders shrugged down. Me hunching my back over, keeping my arms down, never crossing them, talking to people from a lower ground, so they could look down at me when they talked to me, instead of me looking down at them.

It was just all those little things that make it count where it makes you look like, I just own people that way. They're like, "Okay, okay. He's not that threatening." I was never in their face. I was like, "What do you think? Okay. Okay. This is what I think. Okay. That's what you think? I'm with you, whatever you want." You know like, it was just crazy. The little things that counted, that meant so much in the end.

Your final words at that final Tribal Council were, "I know it's a big, huge, Super Bowl season of Survivor. And I tried to be a great player for the season." That's a pretty, savvy, calculated attempt to appeal to the pride of these jurors as winners, right? Like they should want to have a big, epic winner?

Absolutely. When I go to a final Tribal Council, like I did in my first season, I'm always cautious of what words to use. I choose my words wisely because I don't want to trigger any flashbacks of me being a villain in Cagayan. I didn't want to trigger any words that might turn the people off. So, I didn't want to say, "You guys need to vote for me because this is a season that you want to be represented by the best. And I am the best. I don't think you should vote for Nat." I couldn't talk like that.

So again, just like I played my whole game, I chose my words wisely. I was very cautious of what I said and dropping those little subtle hints, like, "Hey guys, just think about it for a second. This is the biggest season of Survivor. You guys are all involved in it. What more could you have asked from me? I won challenges. I won a fire challenge. My social game was on point. My strategy was on point. I created blindsides. I built a Spy Nest. Like, I did it all. There's nothing more I could have done in the game." But I'm not going to throw it out like that, you know? But they got the point. My game spoke for itself.

You just literally minutes ago won the $2 million. How weird was it to have Jeff Probst give you those $2 million over a webcam?

Oh, man, I don't care how he gives it to me, as long as I get it! $2 million, that is huge, man! Oh my God.

And this time you got to have your family with you when you won.

Oh, what a blessing. This whole season's been a blessing all around. Just from the family visit, all my kids. It's just, it's just amazing. And I got to share it with my family on my sofa in my house. It's just so epic.

Tony, you've now played Survivor three times. You've won twice. You're on the Mount Rushmore. You are the king. Will we see you back on the island for season 50?

Oh, absolutely. The Seniors edition. Survivor Seniors Edition!

 

 

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Does anyone know the status of any new Survivor series? Was there one that had been filmed that was already earmarked for the fall? I don't even remember if they advertised a new series during the finale.

[VaBeach_Eagle]

3 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Does anyone know the status of any new Survivor series? Was there one that had been filmed that was already earmarked for the fall? I don't even remember if they advertised a new series during the finale.

Funny that you posted this, I had thought about looking it up last night but forgot to. 

It would be unusual if they had anything filmed before the pandemic shut everything down. They normally film two seasons during the spring/summer months (May-ish through July-ish), then those air in the fall of that year and winter of the following year.

Unless they were to quarantine the entire cast and crew for a few weeks, then get a government to agree to allow them to go to their country and film, and then be 100% isolated while they're there, I don't know how they could have filmed anything. 

I'll see if I can find out anything though.

[VaBeach_Eagle]

3 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Does anyone know the status of any new Survivor series? Was there one that had been filmed that was already earmarked for the fall? I don't even remember if they advertised a new series during the finale.

Just found this article from earlier this month:

Quote

Everything to know about ‘Survivor 41’

https://www.goldderby.com/feature/survivor-41-premiere-date-cast-everything-to-know-1203618593/

 August 2, 2020 4:00PM

Timothy Kuratek/CBS

For the first time in two decades, "Survivor” won’t be airing any new episodes in the fall. That’s because of the coronavirus pandemic, which wreaked havoc on TV and film productions worldwide. Season 41 of CBS’s reality TV juggernaut originally planned a September 2020 premiere date, but that was scrapped when Jeff Probst and co. weren’t able to travel to Fiji due to safety restrictions. Fear not, "Survivor” fans, the new season will still air … eventually. In the meantime, viewers are keeping themselves entertained during this annoying hiatus by watching old episodes on DVD and streaming services.

Here’s everything to know so far about the upcoming season of "Survivor 41.” Bookmark this page as we’ll be updating when new information is revealed.

It has not yet been filmed
Typically "Survivor” films two seasons back to back in early summer, then airs them in the fall of that year and the following spring. (For example, Seasons 39 and 40 filmed between March and June of 2019, and debuted in September 2019 and February 2020, respectively). Due to COVID-19, production unfortunately could not travel to film Seasons 41 and 42. "The situation is unprecedented and we are learning more information every day. It is out of concern for the well-being of all of you that we have taken this step,” Probst explained about the show’s hiatus. As of August 2020, the new season still has not yet been filmed.

SEE Updated ‘Survivor’ winners list: King Tony is second 2-time champion after Queen Sandra [PHOTOS]

The cast has already been chosen
All of the contestants for Season 41 had already been selected prior to production being shut down. They were officially cast in February 2020 with protocols being put into place so they’d be tested for coronavirus upon their arrival in Fiji, and then put into quarantine for the CDC-recommended time span of 14 days. It’s assumed that the cast would be made up of entirely new players, as the past season, "Winners at War,” memorably welcomed back 20 returning champions.

Probst is back — duh
Yep, "Survivor’s” host with the most Probst will obviously return as host/showrunner of Season 41. Why wouldn’t he? The 58-year-old has appeared in all 596 episodes so far, winning four Emmys for his hosting abilities (2008-2011).

SEE‘Survivor’ flashback: 20 years ago, Richard Hatch celebrated birthday by walking around naked [WATCH]

What’s with the teenager rumors?
During the finale of "Winners at War,” Probst put a call out to teenagers to apply for a future edition of the show. It’s likely this was going to be the plan for Season 42, as the cast of Season 41 had already been finalized before he made the announcement. "You should apply, especially if you’re young,” Probst said at the remote reunion shortly after declaring Tony Vlachos the winner. "I’m talking teenagers — 16, 17, 18, 19. Do it. Cool parents and a cool school? Who knows. It could happen.”

Fiji, Fiji, Fiji
As mentioned above, Mamanuca Islands, Fiji will once again be the location of "Survivor 41” … and presumably all future cycles. After 16 years of globe-trotting and exploring, the show officially moved to this locale in the South Pacific Ocean in Season 33 (“Millennials vs. Gen X”). "I hope we stay here forever,” Probst declared in 2017 while praising Fiji’s clear water, beautiful beaches and friendly government.

 

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

So when is the next season starting?

[20Safety_Hazards]

Possibly the fall. They haven’t filmed it yet, but reports are they are starting filming for 41 soon, and given they film back to back that means we should get a spring 2022 season as well.

[Gern Blanston]

Think I read they planned on starting S41 this month, a very quick break and S42 right after.  Apparently the physical logistics involved of moving away from Fiji would have been massive, and the fact that the production crew is comprised of citizens from over a dozen different countries made it impossible for them to stage and plan things out any earlier or anywhere else.