Serious Question: Do you think Trump will reduce the debt?

[JohnSnowsHair]

Nothing about how Trump goes about anything - either in business or as president 2017-2020 - suggests that he is some kind of deficit hawk. In fact the opposite is true.

If you think the debt will be reduced, I'd really like to hear cogent reasoning as to why. Provide more than feelings - show me how spending cuts coupled with what appears to be a looming recession (maybe we'll pull back - who knows) are going to do it. 

Explain it in real terms - most of our deficit is owed not to DEI research or policies but to large non-discretionary spending that's pretty much locked in.

So, here's your chance Trumpers.

[JohnSnowsHair]

To clarify I would say vote "yes" if the debt is merely reduced not in nominal terms but in relation to GDP. 

[PoconoDon]

The required budget surplus seems out of reach so I'd say t's unlikely. We'll see.

[JohnSnowsHair]

Reducing the debt relative to GDP doesn't require budget surpluses, just not deficits large enough to grow the debt faster than the economy.

What Musk is doing is introducing more economic pain than whatever pitiful savings come from it. It's causing a recession, though Musk will be fine because he's funneling tax dollars to his companies.

Are you all really ok with this? Republicans here are taking a "let him cook" view and he's doing just that: cooking the economy.

[PoconoDon]

8 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

Reducing the debt relative to GDP doesn't require budget surpluses, just not deficits large enough to grow the debt faster than the economy.

What Musk is doing is introducing more economic pain than whatever pitiful savings come from it. It's causing a recession, though Musk will be fine because he's funneling tax dollars to his companies.

Are you all really ok with this? Republicans here are taking a "let him cook" view and he's doing just that: cooking the economy.

I understand the analysis but a positive result being dependent on the tides of the US economy seems too uncertain. For my part, true debt reduction (reducing the overall number) does require many, many, many budget surpluses that can be applied directly to reducing the debt without any smoke and mirrors. Wasteful spending should be stopped. The thing is. not all gov spending is wasteful. There are programs that help people who genuinely need the help. Still, they are finding a lot of ridiculous spending that would've continued otherwise. A scalpel is usually better than a chainsaw, but we'll see how it goes.

[Gannan]

[JohnSnowsHair]

I would be shocked if the true final number of budget dollars saved was over $50B. And that's not a small number but also nowhere near worth the disruption.

Meaningful debt relief will only come in the form of changes to the massive entitlement programs. Raising the age of SS and Medicare eligibility to ensure that the total number of SS recipients relative to the workforce is at a sustainable level would go a long way towards addressing the deficit and thus the debt.

They're tinkering at the margins and parting themselves on the back over savings that aren't going to help.

[we_gotta_believe]

 

20 hours ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

So, here's your chance Trumpers

A serious question for unserious people.

[JohnSnowsHair]

1 hour ago, we_gotta_believe said:

 

A serious question for unserious people.

There's certainly been a lack of interest in this topic from the usual Trumpy supporting MAGAs.

Odd.

[toolg]

In order to reduce the debt Trump will have to raise taxes on the top 1%. He won’t do that. Or else Trump has to shut down most functions of Federal government. He will try, but ultimately I do not think he will succeed enough to reduce the debt. 

[BBE]

39 minutes ago, toolg said:

In order to reduce the debt Trump will have to raise taxes on the top 1%. He won’t do that. Or else Trump has to shut down most functions of Federal government. He will try, but ultimately I do not think he will succeed enough to reduce the debt. 

He will have to raise taxes on everyone while slashing spending to make any real headway in the short or medium term.  Servicing on the debt is going to be far too high.

[lynched1]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14470559/Trump-pressured-make-Puerto-Rico-independent-save-America-eye-watering-617-billion.html

The proposed order appears, the report says, to have been drafted by Congressional offices and third parties seeking secession from the U.S.,

[Phillyterp85]

Forget reducing the debt, he won't even reduce the deficit.  Just like last time.  

[JohnSnowsHair]

Maybe I'll put a second poll up about the deficit.

I don't think that's coming down either. Tax receipts are going to be ok for this year but he's crushing the tax base. I predict tax receipts for 2025 will be down from 2024, and I don't think I'm going out on a limb.