September 11Sep 11 Too many variables to say for sure. But generally speaking, I’d want a team with the #1 defense and a top-10 offense in the Super Bowl. Defense wins in the playoffs, no doubt, but you still need to score. There needs to be some balance. If a team with the #1 defense can't score, then that's not good either.
September 11Sep 11 Author The talking heads who posed the question on the Pregame weren’t assuming team vs team, but simply unit vs unit. Which one would impose its will on the other in an irresistible force vs. an immovable object sense.
September 11Sep 11 In 1985, the dolphins had the #2 passing offense and jumped to a big lead early, beating the bears who had the overwhelming #1 defense.
September 15Sep 15 The 85 Dolphins #2 passing offense lost to 6/7 ranked NE D by 17 so they didn't face the #1 D in the SB.
September 17Sep 17 3 hours ago, SB52 said:The team who doesn’t turn the ball over.That would be the one without Peyton Manning.3 TD passes in 4 SBs and 2 pick sixes in the same games. 💩Unless his opponent is Sexy Rexy or someone afraid of fumbles who cries after the game.
September 17Sep 17 On 9/10/2026 at 8:27 PM, JamesK said:Too many variables to say for sure. But generally speaking, I’d want a team with the #1 defense and a top-10 offense in the Super Bowl. Defense wins in the playoffs, no doubt, but you still need to score. There needs to be some balance.If a team with the #1 defense can't score, then that's not good either.#1 offense and a top 10 defense isn't so shabby either.
September 17Sep 17 OK here we go @mattwill ....NFL games (regular season and playoffs) in which the team that finished the season as #1 offense by points scored played the team that finished the season with #1 defense by points scored. Of note...this is season finishing, not the rankings at the time they played (that data gets muddier and isn't as solid as the total final product). Since 1999.Season#1 offense#1 defenseStageResult2006San Diego ChargersBaltimore RavensRegular season, Week 4Ravens 16, Chargers 13 Pro Football Reference2007New England PatriotsIndianapolis ColtsRegular season, Week 9Patriots 24, Colts 20 New England Patriots2009New Orleans SaintsNew York JetsRegular season, Week 4Saints 24, Jets 10 New York Jets2010New England PatriotsPittsburgh SteelersRegular season, Week 10Patriots 39, Steelers 26 NFL2012New England PatriotsSeattle SeahawksRegular season, Week 6Seahawks 24, Patriots 23 NFL2013Denver BroncosSeattle SeahawksSuper Bowl XLVIIISeahawks 43, Broncos 8 Seattle Seahawks2014Green Bay PackersSeattle SeahawksRegular season, Week 1Seahawks 36, Packers 16 Packers2014Green Bay PackersSeattle SeahawksNFC ChampionshipSeahawks 28, Packers 22 (OT) Packers2015Carolina PanthersSeattle SeahawksRegular season, Week 6Panthers 27, Seahawks 23 Carolina Panthers2015Carolina PanthersSeattle SeahawksNFC DivisionalPanthers 31, Seahawks 24 Carolina Panthers2016Atlanta FalconsNew England PatriotsSuper Bowl LIPatriots 34, Falcons 28 (OT) Atlanta Falcons2017Los Angeles RamsMinnesota VikingsRegular season, Week 11Vikings 24, Rams 7 Minnesota Vikings2019Baltimore RavensNew England PatriotsRegular season, Week 9Ravens 37, Patriots 20 NFL Clubs2020Green Bay PackersLos Angeles RamsNFC DivisionalPackers 32, Rams 18 Packers2022Kansas City ChiefsSan Francisco 49ersRegular season, Week 7Chiefs 44, 49ers 23 Kansas City Chiefs2025Los Angeles RamsSeattle SeahawksRegular season, Week 11Rams 21, Seahawks 19 NFL2025Los Angeles RamsSeattle SeahawksRegular season, Week 16Seahawks 38, Rams 37 (OT) NFL2025Los Angeles RamsSeattle SeahawksNFC ChampionshipSeahawks 31, Rams 27 Los Angeles RamsSo the headline numbers27 seasons studied: 1999–202515 seasons had a #1 scoring offense actually play the #1 scoring defense.Because 2014 and 2015 each produced two meetings, and 2025 produced three meetings, that gives:18 total #1 offense vs. #1 defense games.And the results are pretty striking:#1 defense: 12 wins#1 offense: 6 winsSo the league's eventual #1 scoring defense went 12–6 (.667) against the eventual #1 scoring offense.Even more interesting is what happened in the playoffs. There were 6 postseason 1-vs-1 games:2013: Seattle over Denver, 43–82014: Seattle over Green Bay, 28–22 OT2015: Carolina over Seattle, 31–242016: New England over Atlanta, 34–28 OT2020: Green Bay over LA Rams, 32–182025: Seattle over LA Rams, 31–27The #1 defense went 4–2 in them.
September 18Sep 18 So here’s an important wrinkle: the #1 offense against the #1 defense is literally only half the battle. We’ve got the #1 offenses defense against the #1 defenses offense.And in a small sample size of 18 instances, that matters. And, for reasons we can speculate, the #1 defense has had notably better counterpart offenses (8.11) than the #1 offense has had defenses (11.61). And that gap has been even larger in playoff matchups.
September 18Sep 18 11 hours ago, eagle45 said:So here’s an important wrinkle: the #1 offense against the #1 defense is literally only half the battle. We’ve got the #1 offenses defense against the #1 defenses offense.And in a small sample size of 18 instances, that matters. And, for reasons we can speculate, the #1 defense has had notably better counterpart offenses (8.11) than the #1 offense has had defenses (11.61). And that gap has been even larger in playoff matchups.Pittsburgh has had a long running philosophy of using a ball control offense to limit how much the defense is on the field. Just based on the law of averages alone, it's reasonable to conclude that an average defense will give up fewer yards if it plays less plays. There's no doubt in my mind that in 2024, our defense also benefitted from an effective ball-control offense. We had 115 more offensive plays that season than defensive plays. Then if you compare that to the Andy Reid era where we often scored quickly and left the defense playing a larger chunk of the game than the offense --- that had a negative effect on the defense's totals and rankings. There are other factors to consider as well like if your offense is racking up yards playing from behind vs prevent defenses or if the opposite is true because you have a big lead. It's hard to really separate the individual success of one side of the ball from the other.
September 18Sep 18 41 minutes ago, brkmsn said:Pittsburgh has had a long running philosophy of using a ball control offense to limit how much the defense is on the field. Just based on the law of averages alone, it's reasonable to conclude that an average defense will give up fewer yards if it plays less plays. There's no doubt in my mind that in 2024, our defense also benefitted from an effective ball-control offense. We had 115 more offensive plays that season than defensive plays. Then if you compare that to the Andy Reid era where we often scored quickly and left the defense playing a larger chunk of the game than the offense --- that had a negative effect on the defense's totals and rankings. There are other factors to consider as well like if your offense is racking up yards playing from behind vs prevent defenses or if the opposite is true because you have a big lead. It's hard to really separate the individual success of one side of the ball from the other.All kinds of things that you can argue (but not exactly prove) with that data:By happenstance, the #1 defenses were just luckier to be buffered by better offenses (than vice versa) and that impacted the outcomes of 18 matchups.An elite defense does more to help out their offense than an elite offense helps their defense.An elite defense is cheaper than an elite offense and allows more resources to build the other side of the ball.
September 18Sep 18 Author 18 hours ago, eagle45 said:So here’s an important wrinkle: the #1 offense against the #1 defense is literally only half the battle. We’ve got the #1 offenses defense against the #1 defenses offense.And in a small sample size of 18 instances, that matters. And, for reasons we can speculate, the #1 defense has had notably better counterpart offenses (8.11) than the #1 offense has had defenses (11.61). And that gap has been even larger in playoff matchups.Indeed … an important wrinkle. In fact I would call it a chasm.
September 18Sep 18 I think what makes offenses great is obviously putting points on the board. But the other factors are not turning the ball over, dominating time of possession, racking up first down, a good 2 minute offense, a good red zone scheme and the ability to come back late in the game. Great defenses make big plays at critical times. In today's NFL, with the rules skewed towards offense, even good defenses are going to give up 20-25 points now and then. But when they make a critical play once or twice a game, can make a huge difference. Forcing turnovers can flip momentum.Just like this past weekend, the eagles defense didn't look as good as expected, but the blocked extra point and ojomo's stop on the 2 pt conversion were the difference in the game.So does a #1 offense or a #1 defense win? .........who knows? but that's why they play the game.....
September 19Sep 19 In 2022, we had the #3 offense and the defense ranked #2 in yards and #8 in points against. The Chiefs had the #1 offense and their defense ranked #11 in yards and #16 in points against. I really appreciate defensive football. But on the topic of this thread, I don't think rankings mean squat. I strongly agree with the "defense wins championships" argument. But I also disagree with the idea that rankings matter in championships. A team can have a mediocre defense that plays great in the championship and that is way better than a statistically #1 ranked defense (based on the regular season) that doesn't have a good game. The 2007 Patriots had the #1 offense and #4 defense, a perfect season record and lost the super bowl to a team with middle of the league rankings.
September 19Sep 19 @birdman#12 You make some good points and people try to factor other things in for what makes a good team.For D I like to use 5 rankingspoints allowedyards allowedturnoverspasser rating allowedrushing yards allowedYou could throw sacks in as a 6th if you wanted.The 2024 Eagles D was:2nd in points1st in yards6th in turnovers3rd in passer rating10th in rushing yardshttps://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2024/opp.htmThe 2025 Seahawks were:1st in points6th in yards6th in turnovers4th in passer rating3rd in rushing yardsTo pick a great D from the past, lest go 2015 Broncos4th in points1st in yards8th in turnovers4th in passer rating3rd in rushing yardsTo pick a juggernaut lets go 2000 Ravens1st in points2nd in yards1st in turnovers3rd in passer rating1st in rushing yardsYou are still leaving out things like TOP, penalties, etc but its a much better picture than yards, points, or yards and points.
September 19Sep 19 The 1991 Eagles (best stats D off all recorded history by DVOA)5th in points1st in yards1st in turnovers1st in passer rating1st in rushing yards(1st in sacks)I still hate Bryce Paup.
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