Weekly line thread: Eagles +3/3.5 at Browns

[Hawkeye]

After the ship show we saw yesterday one would be tempted to take Cleveland,  lay the field goal and wander over to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame (it's next to the stadium).

But the Browns have terrible trends SU and ATS vs. the NFC and have padded their 6-3 record with wins against bad teams.  The Eagles are a bad team as well, but this is a good bounce back spot. We'll keep an eye on line movements this week but this could be an epically bad game. 

Eagles +3 to 3.5
Total: 47.5

[jsdarkstar]

This is the only possible win on the schedule over the next 5 games.

We won't beat the Seahawks, Packers, Saints, or Cardinals. 

3-5-1; Just plain awful. 

[b_west3]

You'd be STUPID not to take Cleveland. 

[time2rock]

20 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

But the Browns have terrible trends SU and ATS vs. the NFC and have padded their 6-3 record with wins against bad teams. L

 

At least they’re winning against bad teams.  Can’t say the same here. 

 

[wrestlevessel]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

After the ship show we saw yesterday one would be tempted to take Cleveland,  lay the field goal and wander over to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame (it's next to the stadium).

But the Browns have terrible trends SU and ATS vs. the NFC and have padded their 6-3 record with wins against bad teams.  The Eagles are a bad team as well, but this is a good bounce back spot. We'll keep an eye on line movements this week but this could be an epically bad game. 

Eagles +3 to 3.5
Total: 47.5

We are a bad team and a bottom feeder.

[Mortimer]

[UK_EaglesFan89]

I think Vegas are trying to give away money again. I'm absolutely taking that line. The bad Browns could turn up and cover that spread. 

[EagleJoe8]

There were 2 games this year where we had decent point totals and those were both 2nd half games after Pitt and Baltimore seemed to let off the gas. Aside from that, this team has struggled to score on anyone. I could see an easy Browns cover. 
 

But hey, at least we’re getting healthy! 👍

[philafan4o8]

-3 Browns = $$$

[UK_EaglesFan89]

5 hours ago, Bacarty2 said:

Lay the points and take the Browns

I think that seems reasonable yeah. I'm certainly taking the Browns on that spread. 

[Talonblood]

The 2-7 Giants beat the sh** out of this team and nearly won their other game. Cleveland is going to simply lay it on them bad. I am usually very positive and back the Eagles, and rarely pick against them. No more this year- I have seen enough. The Browns are going to put a hurting of them. Sorry guys. I'll be happy to eat crow on Monday, but I don't see me spitting feathers in my future.

[Cochis_Calhoun]

The Giants just put 150 yards rushing on us with Daniel Jones, Wayne Gallman and Alfred Morris.  The Browns have Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

We're going to get hammered.

[Godfather]

On 11/16/2020 at 1:32 PM, jsdarkstar said:

This is the only possible win on the schedule over the next 5 games.

We won't beat the Seahawks, Packers, Saints, or Cardinals. 

3-5-1; Just plain awful. 

I'd say the next 6 games. I don't think they'll beat Dallas

[Dutchman063]

I was convinced we'd luck our way to a win against a hapless giants team last week...  its going to happen and probably against the browns, i cant bet against us. not this week

[John_C]

I don't think the public has come close to figuring out just how bad the Eagles really are... you could probably make money, if you are so inclined, just fading the Birds each week.  Due to the Birds success in recent years you will likely have line value.

Based on this year alone, you would think the Browns should be -7 at least in this game, for example.  Browns - 3.5 is a bargain.  They are much more likely to win by double digits than they are to lose this game.

[Talkingbirds]

I’m not any football expert, but running the ball, short quick passes, move the chains and eat up the clock.  That should give the Eagles a chance.  Can offense do this, I think yes.  Defense is going to have to crowd the line of scrimmage to stop run, with blitzing to rattle QB.  Just don’t think we have players to do this.

[QBhunter58]

This year the sports (especially football) coverage has been bleak. I used to do my daily 'eagles' search to catch up on all the news and articles. I have become an every other day guy because there is just nothing... every week is dominated by bare bones coverage, including the betting lines. 

 

[NCTANK]

if their head coach has the IQ of a dung beetle then they’ll cover with no problem.

[Hawkeye]

Thursday update:

The line (we use MGM) has dropped a half point to Eagles +3 and the total has jumped 2 points to 47.5.

What's interesting is how the action breaks down:

89% of the Money Line action is on the Eagles.
77% of the side action is on the Eagles.
68% of the total action is on the Under.

 

[John_C]

5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Thursday update:

The line (we use MGM) has dropped a half point to Eagles +3 and the total has jumped 2 points to 47.5.

What's interesting is how the action breaks down:

89% of the Money Line action is on the Eagles.
77% of the side action is on the Eagles.
68% of the total action is on the Under.

 

Incredible.

Again I think the public has not yet caught up with how bad the Eagles are, and thus they are creating amazing line value in Eagles games.  The Eagles should be a money making opportunity (betting against them in each game) until this adjustment is made.

[Hawkeye]

7 minutes ago, John_C said:

Incredible.

Again I think the public has not yet caught up with how bad the Eagles are, and thus they are creating amazing line value in Eagles games.  The Eagles should be a money making opportunity (betting against them in each game) until this adjustment is made.

It's interesting because from a pure Vegas perspective, the trends are against the Browns.  The Eagles have had bounce-back games in spots like this over the years.  I don't have a feel for the side but the Eagles are +155 on the money line so someone sees value. 

[Birdman]

On 11/16/2020 at 11:32 AM, jsdarkstar said:

This is the only possible win on the schedule over the next 5 games.

We won't beat the Seahawks, Packers, Saints, or Cardinals. 

3-5-1; Just plain awful. 

4-11-1 

/book it 

[wrestlevessel]

According to nfl.com like 5 players on the Eagles got the coronavirus. Giants clinched this division.

[Birdman]

50 minutes ago, wrestlevessel said:

According to nfl.com like 5 players on the Eagles got the coronavirus. Giants clinched this division.

JJLOL, Hightower, Clement, Curry, Burnett 

Now I see why thery're resigning Howard....

[EagleJoe8]

9 hours ago, wrestlevessel said:

According to nfl.com like 5 players on the Eagles got the coronavirus. Giants clinched this division.

What time is your scheduled spaz out?