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Brian Baldinger says Eagles ‘missed the boat’ with many of their NFL draft picks


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Brian Baldinger says Eagles ‘missed the boat’ with many of their NFL draft picks

by Paul Domowitch, Updated: April 28, 2020
 
Brian Baldinger says Eagles ‘missed the boat’ with many of their NFL draft picks
 

Add Brian Baldinger to the long list of people scratching their heads over many of the decisions the Eagles made in last week’s draft.

And this is a guy who liked the Jalen Hurts pick.

"I just think they missed the boat on this thing,’’ said the NFL Network analyst. "Just about every pick they made seemed to be driven by analytics, not production or projecting to the NFL or anything like that.’’

Baldinger understands the Eagles’ desire to get faster, particularly at wide receiver. We’re talking about a unit that had just 11 touchdown catches and a league-low eight receptions of 30 or more yards last year.

The Lions’ Kenny Golladay had as many touchdown catches as all of the Eagles’ wide receivers. The Saints’ Michael Thomas had 78 more receiving yards. So, yeah, they needed to find some reinforcements.

But Baldinger thinks they went overboard on NextGen stats and other metrics at the expense of production and actual football ability.

"There’s such a thing as functional speed,’’ said Baldinger, a former NFL offensive lineman who finished his 11-year career in 1993 after two seasons with the Eagles. "Everybody wants to get faster. But if you’re not able to get on the field, if you’re not productive, what’s the point in being fast? Anybody can collect fast guys. They’re everywhere. But that doesn’t mean they’re good football players or can make plays.

"It’s bizarre. Outside of [fourth-round safety] K’Von Wallace, I don’t know one player they drafted that is going to help them out Week 1. Even [first-round wide receiver] Jalen Reagor. I like him personally. He’s a good kid. Good bloodlines and all that stuff.

"But I honestly don’t know how anybody could look at Reagor the last two years and look at Justin Jefferson and take Reagor over Jefferson [who went to the Vikings at No. 22 after the Eagles took Reagor at No. 21]. I don’t know how anybody can do that.’’

Baldinger’s no-holds-barred take on the Eagles’ 10 draft selections:

WR Jalen Reagor, Round 1

"I just don’t understand why they passed on Jefferson. Minnesota spit their teeth out when the Eagles passed on him. They couldn’t get the Jefferson pick in fast enough.

"Jefferson was the best route-runner in this draft. There was nobody close to him. Reagor can’t run routes like him and he’s not as big.

"I don’t want to hear this he’s-just-a-slot-guy stuff. Jefferson can play inside or outside. Just go back and look at LSU in 2018 before [offensive coordinator] Joe Brady got there. He was an outside receiver. Led the team in receiving. Averaged more than 16 yards per catch.

"Brady came in and said to him, ‘We’re going to get five [receivers] out every play this year. [Joe] Burrow can read defenses and get the ball out. How about if you go in the slot? You’ll just kill teams in there.’ And that’s exactly what he did.

"I think Jefferson’s already better than Stefon Diggs. I saw Reagor a lot last year. Did a lot of Big 12 games [for Fox Sports]. He had a lot of drops. He didn’t have a lot of production. He looks like a gadget player to me and not much more.

"You can say Reagor is faster than the 4.47 he ran at the combine. But why didn’t he show it? People can look at these metrics all they want. He ran a 4.46 short shuttle. You look at a guy like Odell Beckham Jr., he ran a 3.92 when he came out. Shaun Bradley, the linebacker the Eagles took in the sixth round, ran a 4.24 short shuttle.

"I agree that his numbers were impacted a little bit by the fact that he had a true freshman throwing to him last year. But I did his first game last year. He had three drops in that game. Three. Uncharacteristic drops. He was dropping bubble screens. If I was a personnel director, I’d be asking, why the drops? What happened? That’s the first thing you ask. Is it concentration? Is it the new quarterback? What happened? I mean, his production took a nosedive.

"Going into last year, I thought [Oklahoma’s] CeeDee Lamb and Reagor were the two best receivers in the Big 12. But you can’t tell me after watching CeeDee, after watching Denzel Mims [Baylor], after watching [Devin] Duvernay [Texas], you can’t say Reagor was better than them last year.’’

QB Jalen Hurts, Round 2

"I said back in March that the Eagles should consider taking this kid with the 53rd pick. I said it for a couple of reasons. No. 1, the Eagles need a backup quarterback. They’ve played six postseason games the last three years and Carson Wentz has played nine snaps in those six games.

"No. 2, Hurts is the kind of guy I just want on my football team. Taking him with the 53rd pick is a little expensive. But he’s a winner. He got beat out by Tua [Tagovailoa] at Alabama and stayed. Not just stayed, but graduated and then helped them win the SEC against Georgia coming off the bench in 2018 after Tua got hurt.

"Then he goes to Oklahoma and wins the job and put up incredible numbers. He learned a completely new system and got better. I thought he showed a lot of improvement. And the way the game is being played now with Kyler [Murray] and Lamar [Jackson] and Russell [Wilson], he plays that style of game. His eyes are down the field. He’s an elite athlete.

"Everybody is going to see his talent. Everybody is going to see the way he runs. They’re going to see his arm strength. Now, is he accurate enough? We’ll see. But I think he’s an ascending player.

"They have a good football team. They have a good quarterback. But if Carson gets hurt again, they need to have somebody that can win games. Marty [Mornhinweg, the Eagles’ senior offensive consultant] was in Baltimore with Lamar when they drafted him. He knows packages right now that they can put in [for Hurts].

"People have suggested they could use him the way the Saints have used Taysom Hill. I don’t know about that. Hill plays on every special team. I’m not putting this guy out there on my punt teams. I’m not doing any of that stuff they’re doing with Hill.

"Carson probably isn’t going to handle this well. He’s going to be constantly asked about it. It’s going to become annoying to him. But you can’t not ask about how it’s going to be and what his role is going to be. If Carson goes out there and plays well, everything will take care of itself.’’

LB Davion Taylor, Round 3

"I don’t understand this pick at all. This is just a pure analytics pick. If you watched Colorado play last year, you can’t find the guy. First of all, they played that silly, soft defense with the three-man fronts that everybody in the Pac-12 plays. So he wasn’t in the box. He’s not an in-the-box linebacker. He’s out there on the perimeter against slot receivers and he’s just running to the ball.

"Like a lot of people, I use the term position-less football when describing certain players. Derwin James. Isaiah Simmons. But where is this kid going to line up and play? If you’re playing the New York Giants with Saquon [Barkley] or the Cowboys with Zeke [Elliott], where is he going to play exactly? Is he an off-the-ball inside linebacker? Where is he going to play and how is his speed going to be used when you play teams like that?

"I don’t know what position he is. Are you really going to put him against Cole Beasley in the slot? What is he going to do? I don’t understand the pick at all.

"He’s hardly played. Didn’t play in high school. Played just two years of Division I ball. He has no instincts for the game. That’s why I say it was completely driven by analytics. So he’s fast. So what? The mistake they’re making is it’s not going to make you faster if you’re not on the field.

"I guess they’ll use him on special teams. He probably can go chase some kicks for you, though 80 percent of all kickoffs are out of the end zone. He can chase some punts. But I just don’t see how he is going to help that defense any time soon or where he’s going to line up. It just seemed like a bizarre pick.’’

S K’Von Wallace, Round 4

"I liked this pick. I thought it was a really solid pick. They drafted him in the right spot. He was a four-year player. Started 36 games. You can watch him cover slot receivers. He covered Justin Jefferson in the national championship game.

"He’s not really a free safety. He’s more of a down-in-the-box guy. But he’s a good tackler, a good blitzer, a good cover guy. He’s just a good, smart football player. I thought he was probably the one guy they drafted who has a chance to get on the field on Day 1. Nothing’s going to be too big for him. He’s played in the postseason every year. He’s been durable. If you look at his analytics, he runs well. He has good short-area quickness.

"He was a really good selection. I could see him becoming one of their starting safeties within a short period of time.’’

G Jack Driscoll, Round 4

"He’s OK. Basically a developmental player. Took him a little high. But just give him to Stout [offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland] and let him develop and maybe he’ll compete with Matt Pryor for the backup guard spot at some point.’’

WR John Hightower, Round 5

"I just look at him and say, if he’s playing against Stephon Gilmore, is he really going to catch a ball? There’s just nothing about him that jumps out. I don’t care how fast he is. I didn’t see anything from the guy. I didn’t see great production. I see questionable hands. He’s fast, but I don’t see him running away from people.’’

LB Shaun Bradley, Round 6

"A good pick. He’s tough. I think he can actually play. I have a feeling he’ll help them more than Davion Taylor ever will. He’s got short arms, which could be a little bit of a problem. Length is important at linebacker. You’re diving all the time. Guys with long arms seem to make more tackles. But he’s been trained and coached the right way.

WR Quez Watkins, Round 6

"He couldn’t get off the line against Louisiana Tech. I think it’s a real stretch thinking he’s going to be an NFL player.’’

 

OT Prince Tega Wanogho, Round 6

"He’s got some size to him. Basically a free-agent prospect. He hasn’t played a ton of football, but he’s athletic and has pretty good feet. Let’s see how he does against Brandon Graham in one-on-ones. Let’s see how he holds up.’’

Edge Rusher Casey Toohill, Round 7

"An athletic kid who showed some pretty good pass-rush ability. Had 11 1/2 sacks last year. Needs to get bigger and stronger. Needs to improve his overall game. But he’s got some traits you can work with.’’

https://www.inquirer.com/eagles/eagles-draft-brian-baldinger-missed-boat-analytics-jalen-reagor-justin-jefferson-jalen-hurts-carson-wentz-packages-kvon-wallace-starter-20200428.html

Bit surprising to see Baldy be so negative about anything Eagles. He also got some of the stats wrong.

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4 minutes ago, KOJO said:

Just about every pick they made seemed to be driven by analytics, not production or projecting to the NFL or anything like that

Well hang on. In recent years all we have done is seemingly pick based on production. Now we move away from that and there's questions about it?

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In past drafting for production they did not account for strength of competition.  I know that sounds hard to believe for an NFL franchise's drafting brain trust but it is the undeniable fact.  Howie admitted as much in his press conference just after the season ended.  So they go all in on pure speed without that much context as a football player transitioning to the next level.  I have to agree with Baldinger on that.  They did get some useful pieces in the 2 4th rounders.  Hurtz should be at least a decent back up with a strong body that should be less prone to injury.  The OT may end up being a steal and was worth the gamble in the 6th round.  Hopefully Rieger can play and one of the 2 late WRs can contribute.  Maybe a LB can play.  We'll see.  Nothing can be as bad as the 2017 draft and if the Charmin soft USC OT busts, 2019 will be Sanders and nothing else.  From a sheer numbers standpoint this draft will be better than both of those, hopefully a lot better, but then again just about any draft in the league would be too.

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4 minutes ago, Hpowner said:

Damn this is depressing.

Why? It's a mixed bag in terms of the 'experts' opinions on our draft. In previous years those same 'experts' have swooned over our haul and it's turned out to be a poor draft. I will never fully trust Howie when it comes to picking the right guys but we need to see first.

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So is this a true "Howie" draft or is Teflon Howie going to blame someone else if the picks don't work out?

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Just now, Perforator said:

So is this a true "Howie" draft or is Teflon Howie going to blame someone else if the picks don't work out?

Not sure who he can blame? But ultimately the responsibility there lies with Lurie doesn't it? Howie hasn't drafted well and he has made a number of mistakes and yet he seems safe.

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He changed his tune a little on the Hurts pick. On the radio interview it sounded like he didn't agree with that one either.

 

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Really.....how much tape and investigation did baldinger do?  The same as the fans and the media.....almost nothing but highlight films and an occasional game film.

Unless baldinger is talking offensive line technique, he's just another media talking head.

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5 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Not sure who he can blame? But ultimately the responsibility there lies with Lurie doesn't it? Howie hasn't drafted well and he has made a number of mistakes and yet he seems safe.

The hardware in the trophy case likely bought Howie a really long leash.  

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Uh-oh.  Didn’t he say he actually covered Big 12 games?  Baldy is a huge Eagles fan so this is concerning.

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Without knowing much about the WRs taken later (Hightower, Watkins) so admittedly an uninformed opinion, I do agree with Baldy in that they seemed to be focused solely on adding speed.  I was so hoping they'd add WRs that did not have questionable hands, that had the "game speed" and refined route running abilities to be able to beat press coverage/get off the LOS and be a good vertical threat, that excelled at tracking the ball in the air.  Seems many of the draft analysis reports (for what they are worth, but when the majority say the same, have to figure there is some truth to them) think it is all of those latter traits that are missing from the players we drafted (to include Reagor).  

 

 

 

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The thing that got me is this

 

 

Quote

WR John Hightower, Round 5

"I just look at him and say, if he’s playing against Stephon Gilmore, is he really going to catch a ball? There’s just nothing about him that jumps out. I don’t care how fast he is. I didn’t see anything from the guy. I didn’t see great production. I see questionable hands. He’s fast, but I don’t see him running away from people.’’

I'm sorry but this is a 5th rounder WR that they drafted. If he is lining up against anyone like Stephon Gilmore in 2020 the Eagles have much bigger problems.

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Just now, pallidrone said:

The thing that got me is this

 

 

 

A 5th rounder lining up against Stephon Gilmore would be an upgrade over last year.

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Calling a guy drafted in the 4th 5th 6th round an odd pick because hes not ready to contribute day 1 as a starter is a foolish statement.

Those guys arent drafted to be starters right away, if they were theyd be 1st and 2nd round picks.

Theyre all going to need time and coaching.

Even reagor, sure he might not be as game ready day one as jefferson but hus ceiling is much higher.

One can plug jefferson in at slot receiver and hell be productive from day one can he play on the outside? To be determined.

Interesting that he likes the hurts pick. He rips all the other picks for not being starter material then likes the backup qb pick😒

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16 hours ago, KOJO said:

"I think Jefferson’s already better than Stefon Diggs.

This is all the "analysis" I needed to see.

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1 hour ago, time2rock said:

The hardware in the trophy case likely bought Howie a really long leash.  

An extremely long leash yeah. Unfortunately. 

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Last year Wentz had around a 90 percent completion rate throwing to Sanders/Scott, around a 72 percent completion rate throwing to Ertz/Goedert/Ward and around a 55 percent completion rate throwing to Jeffery/Algholor/JJ. So it is pretty clear that they needed to upgrade the outside wr spot.

Adding Reagor and Goodwin and getting DJax back will unquestionably help this offense. As far as the Reagor over Jefferson discussion, I think it is pretty obvious that they are completely different types of players. If you want a better version of Jordan Matthews, Jefferson is your guy. If you want Tyreek Hill, you weren't going to get him with Jefferson, but you might with Reagor.

 

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1 hour ago, jsb235 said:

Last year Wentz had around a 90 percent completion rate throwing to Sanders/Scott, around a 72 percent completion rate throwing to Ertz/Goedert/Ward and around a 55 percent completion rate throwing to Jeffery/Algholor/JJ. So it is pretty clear that they needed to upgrade the outside wr spot.

Those are some interesting stats. Where did you find that bud? I mean you'd expect that sort of trend right? Not to that extent but I mean you'd expect throws to your RBs to be the highest completion, then middle of the field then outside the numbers. 

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I think Baldinger is partially right. I do think Howie was probably going mostly by analytics because I can see Howie relying mostly on that because he is more of a data type of guy. It's an interesting debate though in terms of size vs. speed, vs. should there be a balance between the two and where the NFL is headed as a League.  I have my questions about Reagor and Quez, in terms of are they just speed, gadget WR or are they going to be well rounded WRs at the NFL level. When I look at Hightower, I see traits that I think could translate.  I' know Reagor had a freshman QB, but good WRs tend to still produce at least to some level with bad WRs. Harold Carmichael is an example of that.  I'm not saying that Reagor is a bust, but I am  concerned about the excuse for drops and the bad QB excuse for such a big stat disparity.  I think Aiyuk is going to be one of the best WRs from this draft. I hope Howie got that right.

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3 minutes ago, CaliEagle said:

I think Baldinger is partially right. I do think Howie was probably going mostly by analytics because I can see Howie relying mostly on that because he is more of a data type of guy

And that's fine but in previous years he's gone more on production rather than analytics and athleticism and been criticized for that too. 

I'm not Howie fan but seems to me he can't win. 

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45 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Those are some interesting stats. Where did you find that bud? I mean you'd expect that sort of trend right? Not to that extent but I mean you'd expect throws to your RBs to be the highest completion, then middle of the field then outside the numbers. 

I just did the simple math with targets and catches.

What is interesting is the spread. Dak, for example, completed 62 percent of his passes to Gallup and Cooper, 66 percent of his passes to Cobb and 75 percent of his passes to the TEs and RBs.

Matt Ryan completed 65 percent of his passes to Jones and Ridley, 66 percent of his passes to Gage (slot) and 80 percent of his passes to TEs/RBs.

In NO, the rbs caught 71 percent of their targets, Cook caught 66 percent of his targets, and Thomas/Ginn caught 74 percent of their targets. They are kind of unique in that Thomas and Ginn move in and out of the slot. Also, Bridgewater saw a lot of time, so they had two different qbs.

It's interesting to me that in the three random teams I looked at, no one had a bigger spread between the RBs/TEs/SlotWRs and outside WRs like the Eagles. Obviously Cooper/Jones/Thomas are better than a hobbled Jeffery and JJ, and if you think CeeDee is going to be in their class, then not trading up for him makes absolutely no sense, regardless of the price.

But as long as DJax/Goodwin/Reagor can provide somewhat of an upgrade over what they had last year, the offense should just explode. Because Wentz is pretty elite at making the other throws. But a 55 percent completion rate to the outside wrs is just not going to get it done.

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