Weekly line thread: Eagles +2.5 vs. Chargers

[Hawkeye]

Los Angeles comes to town riding a two-game losing streak and with one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.  Will Nick and the boys stick with the running game and once again allow Hurts, Scott and Howard to pound it?  Or will they return to a state  of cluelessness?  

Line: Chargers -2.5/Eagles
Total:  50/50.5
ML: Chargers -148/Eagles +120

[UK_EaglesFan89]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Los Angeles comes to town riding a two-game losing streak and with one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.  Will Nick and the boys stick with the running game and once again allow Hurts, Scott and Howard to pound it?  Or will they return to a state  of cluelessness?

Almost feels inevitable that we will lose next week and after the game we will be talking about how we can't believe they hardly ran the ball again. Just feels like that's how it is with this team.

[SB52]

Some early money coming in on the Eagles. That’s interesting. I wonder if it’s a sharp head fake?

[EazyEaglez]

Really hope they stick to the run again this week. Maybe not to the extent they did against the Lions, but running the ball could open up the pass. Hurts needs to trust the passing process though and stop bailing too early. Might be some chances to take some shots downfield to Quez Watkins if they catch the Chargers sneaking up a safety. 

[toolg]

I predict the Chargers will get an early score. The Eagles will throw all afternoon in a futile attempt to catch up.

[SNOORDA]

Chargers came down to earth and eagles feeling some confidence.   who knows with this game.
 

 If our rb’s produce similar to last week (doubtful but) and we don’t turn the ball over we have a fighting chance.  

[Hawkeye]

The line is now down to Eagles +1

[UK_EaglesFan89]

Eagles +1? What The... Sorry but that's just giving away money. Chargers may be up and down but they have way too much talent to lose to us. 

[time2rock]

23 hours ago, EazyEaglez said:

Really hope they stick to the run again this week. Maybe not to the extent they did against the Lions, but running the ball could open up the pass. Hurts needs to trust the passing process though and stop bailing too early. Might be some chances to take some shots downfield to Quez Watkins if they catch the Chargers sneaking up a safety. 

Chargers with one of the worst rushing defenses in the league - I believe only Texans worse.  I don’t know if as heavy a rushing attack as last weekend is needed (or a sustainable approach) but if Sirianni is a smart man he’ll definitely make it a bigger part of the game plan than he did prior to that Detroit game.  Or he can be like Andy and Doug and outsmart himself, thinking, "they know they have a weak run defense so they’re probably thinking "we should expect a heavy dose of the run from them” … SOOOOOO I’ll show them and go pass heavy to throw them off!!!”

[time2rock]

1 hour ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Eagles +1? What The... Sorry but that's just giving away money. Chargers may be up and down but they have way too much talent to lose to us. 

Most west coast teams have a difficult time traveling to the east coast to play.  I’m sure that factors in as much as the 2 game losing skid.  I don’t think any bet is "safe” with this one.  

[EazyEaglez]

1 hour ago, time2rock said:

Chargers with one of the worst rushing defenses in the league - I believe only Texans worse.  I don’t know if as heavy a rushing attack as last weekend is needed (or a sustainable approach) but if Sirianni is a smart man he’ll definitely make it a bigger part of the game plan than he did prior to that Detroit game.  Or he can be like Andy and Doug and outsmart himself, thinking, "they know they have a weak run defense so they’re probably thinking "we should expect a heavy dose of the run from them” … SOOOOOO I’ll show them and go pass heavy to throw them off!!!”

This is what I’m afraid of. 😂

[toolg]

19 hours ago, time2rock said:

Most west coast teams have a difficult time traveling to the east coast to play.  I’m sure that factors in as much as the 2 game losing skid.  I don’t think any bet is "safe” with this one.  

There's a distinct east coast advantage when it's a 1:00pm EST start time. Sunday's game starts at 4:00 pm. 

[Hawkeye]

34 minutes ago, toolg said:

There's a distinct east coast advantage when it's a 1:00pm EST start time. Sunday's game starts at 4:00 pm. 

Actually that advantage has eroded with time as bettors and bookmakers adjusted the line to take travel into account.  From Covers.com:

Since 2013 West Coast teams have had a winning ATS record in this situation. These teams have gone 58-40-4 (59.2%) ATS when playing on the road against an East Coast team.

There are two reasons for the change. One, teams have become better at managing this situation by changing when they leave for an East Coast game.

Two, as this trend became popular among bettors, the oddsmakers adjusted knowing gamblers would want to fade teams traveling from West to East.

There is no longer value fading West Coast teams traveling east. While West Coast teams have been undervalued in this situation the past few seasons, it is likely that the trend will regress.

The key takeaway is that profitable betting trends lose value over time as they become popular and force bookmakers to adjust.

[toolg]

Thanks for the info @Hawkeye. I stand corrected.

[Hawkeye]

58 minutes ago, toolg said:

Thanks for the info @Hawkeye. I stand corrected.

I thought the same thing you did.  Road teams from the west coast covering 60% of their east coast games is a really strange stat.  

[toolg]

8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I thought the same thing you did.  Road teams from the west coast covering 60% of their east coast games is a really strange stat.  

fwiw I like the Chargers to beat the spread on Sunday. Just a hunch, regardless the trend.