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Assuming the worst


cargo city
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While I don’t think this is going to happen - for the sake of a hypothetical - let’s assume Hurts has a bad season and the organization determines he’s not our future qb. We then use both of our first rounders and draft a qb who isn’t ready to step in for game 1 of the 2023 season.

What’s Minshew’s contract situation next year? 

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Just now, cargo city said:

While I don’t think this is going to happen - for the sake of a hypothetical - let’s assume Hurts has a bad season and the organization determines he’s not our future qb. We then use both of our first rounders and draft a qb who isn’t ready to step in for game 1 of the 2023 season.

What’s Minshew’s contract situation next year? 

Minshew is not under contract next year, but could be extended.

Jalen Hurts is under contract.

Ian Book is under contract.

Carson Strong is available.

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We could re-sign Minshew to be the Pederson/Bradford guy, but I think we just let him walk and get someone dirt cheap.

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The worst is Hurts has an indeterminant season and they pay him a lot of money.

But if Hurts proves to not be the guy I think it depends on how the rest of the team does.  If they are as good as some think they are they might look for a vet to try to make a run. If all these 'great' moves turn out to be less than advertised they could go the young route

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Just now, pgcd3 said:

The worst is Hurts has an indeterminant season and they pay him a lot of money.

But if Hurts proves to not be the guy I think it depends on how the rest of the team does.  If they are as good as some think they are they might look for a vet to try to make a run. If all these 'great' moves turn out to be less than advertised they could go the young route

What do you feel is an intermediate season where Howie will consider and extension but is otherwise is not particularly promising

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If Hurts has a bad season then why would we need to use both 1sts to get a QB? We don't have a RB to lean on to win games. If he sucks and isn't the future then I'd assume we have a top pick

Also I don't know about the QB crop for 2023. I would think they would draft the QB who is able to start

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Worst case:

Eagles finish as wildcard or just out of playoffs. Draft pick around 16-19.

Saints pick probably higher than Eagles. Draft pick around 9-14.

Might be able to trade both of these for around #5 pick.

Really need to watch Howie trading up. This year he traded a lot of picks to move up.

Probably only 2 top ten QBs. We'll see how that shapes up.

I like DE Myles Murphy with the Saints pick and then QB Will Levis with the Eagles pick.

 

 

 

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Eagles' own pick 
From Saints 
Eagles' own pick 
Eagles' own pick 
Eagles' own pick 
Eagles' own pick 
From Vikings 
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I have a strong feeling that the Saints will be absolutely terrible this season. That pick will be top 10. There will be plenty of ammo to trade up even higher to grab a QB who can at least take over as the starter mid-season. 
 

Until then, there are always plenty of stop gap QBs to throw out there until the rookie is ready to go. 

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5 hours ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

What do you feel is an intermediate season where Howie will consider and extension but is otherwise is not particularly promising

I know that question wasn’t directed to me, but I'd say if Hurts makes only marginal improvement in his passing game and decision-making.  

Last year he had a completion % of 61.3 with 16 TDs vs 9 INTs and a rating of 87.2.

League average is approximately 66.5% and 92.2 rating.  

Ideally you'd like to see Hurts eclipse both to have sufficient confidence he can be "the guy" moving forward.  So you'd like to see him around 67-68% and a 97.0 rating (minimally).

If he improves on his 2021 numbers but only to around league average, that would qualify as an indeterminant season IMO since he does show improvement but is still "average".  I'd like to see a QB that falls within the top 10 before handing out a monster contract.  

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3 hours ago, Mike030270 said:

If Hurts has a bad season then why would we need to use both 1sts to get a QB? We don't have a RB to lean on to win games. If he sucks and isn't the future then I'd assume we have a top pick

Also I don't know about the QB crop for 2023. I would think they would draft the QB who is able to start

Because they’re going to have to pay him sooner or later. He can just be OK this year and that wouldn’t be good enough. But with a weak schedule, it’s likely still good enough to win 8 games minimum with the rest of this roster being solid. 

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2 minutes ago, nipples said:

Because they’re going to have to pay him sooner or later. He can just be OK this year and that wouldn’t be good enough. But with a weak schedule, it’s likely still good enough to win 8 games minimum with the rest of this roster being solid. 

They're going to have to pay who sooner or later? My question to the OP was about the number of picks used to get a new QB

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1 hour ago, nipples said:

I have a strong feeling that the Saints will be absolutely terrible this season. That pick will be top 10.

Nope, Eagles original pick will be higher than the pick acquired from the Saints.

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5 hours ago, time2rock said:

I know that question wasn’t directed to me, but I'd say if Hurts makes only marginal improvement in his passing game and decision-making.  

Last year he had a completion % of 61.3 with 16 TDs vs 9 INTs and a rating of 87.2.

League average is approximately 66.5% and 92.2 rating.  

Ideally you'd like to see Hurts eclipse both to have sufficient confidence he can be "the guy" moving forward.  So you'd like to see him around 67-68% and a 97.0 rating (minimally).

If he improves on his 2021 numbers but only to around league average, that would qualify as an indeterminant season IMO since he does show improvement but is still "average".  I'd like to see a QB that falls within the top 10 before handing out a monster contract.  


I think because league average mobility isn’t close to his, id be pleased with 65%. That’s my threshold between "he’s still not quite there” and "this guy figured it out”. Get the YPA up (what I think will naturally happen with no Ertz and a ful season of Goedert + AJ) with that completion % and we have something

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3 hours ago, downundermike said:

Nope, Eagles original pick will be higher than the pick acquired from the Saints.

Not a chance. 

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3 hours ago, Mike030270 said:

They're going to have to pay who sooner or later? My question to the OP was about the number of picks used to get a new QB

What I’m saying is Hurts can be just OK this year, which will be good enough to win 9 or 10 games but not good enough for the Eagles to keep him for next year knowing he’ll need to be paid by the following offseason. 
 

 So it very well could take two picks to get a new QB with the Eagles own pick being late teens to early 20s. 
 

 

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33 minutes ago, nipples said:

Not a chance. 

Zero? They have weapons that could rival our own and a defense who isn't a slouch. 

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1 hour ago, nipples said:

Not a chance. 

Tell that to Peter King who predicts NO ends with the #1 seed in the NFC.  Obviously just one man’s opinion (and personally I think he is crazy for thinking that) but he does know his ish more than most of us.  Anyway have to always consider all possibilities as being, well, possible.

https://sports.nbcsports.com/2022/09/05/peter-king-2022-nfl-season-predictions/

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8 minutes ago, time2rock said:

Tell that to Peter King who predicts NO ends with the #1 seed in the NFC.  Obviously just one man’s opinion (and personally I think he is crazy for thinking that) but he does know his ish more than most of us.  Anyway have to always consider all possibilities as being, well, possible.

https://sports.nbcsports.com/2022/09/05/peter-king-2022-nfl-season-predictions/

Peter king hasn't been right since 1992.  It's almost uncanny how somebody can have that much inside info and sport the prediction success rate of a dart throwing chimp.

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8 hours ago, Mike030270 said:

If Hurts has a bad season then why would we need to use both 1sts to get a QB? We don't have a RB to lean on to win games. If he sucks and isn't the future then I'd assume we have a top pick

Also I don't know about the QB crop for 2023. I would think they would draft the QB who is able to start

A lot of fans assume the two 1sts would be packto trade up for their top QB target.

 

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49 minutes ago, dawkins4prez said:

Peter king hasn't been right since 1992.  It's almost uncanny how somebody can have that much inside info and sport the prediction success rate of a dart throwing chimp.

Name one "expert” or otherwise that has gotten their predictions close.  I can’t recall any.  

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9 hours ago, cargo city said:

While I don’t think this is going to happen - for the sake of a hypothetical - let’s assume Hurts has a bad season and the organization determines he’s not our future qb. We then use both of our first rounders and draft a qb who isn’t ready to step in for game 1 of the 2023 season.

What’s Minshew’s contract situation next year? 

My question would be how many Eagles fans feel that Gardner Minshew is a better QB than Jalen Hurts and should start this week against the Lions?
I would assume that it would be a small percentage of Eagles fans, because he is a backup QB for a reason. I don't know how many trade requests came from the other 31 NFL teams and what they had offered for him to start for their team but I assume no offers came in.
Gardner is a decent backup QB, but I don't think he's a franchise QB. That being said if you feel that Jalen Hurts doesn't have what it takes to led the Eagles to a SuperBowl victory, I doubt you really believe that Gardner can.
That being said if Jalen doesn't play up to expectations, Gardner will get his chance. Way too much talent on this offense, the BEST OLine overall in Eagles history with depth.
The best receiving core (WR including TE Dallas & RB Boston is decent at catching too).

If you notice WRs having to correct, or slow down, or get overthrown too much in the Lions game it's time to be worried about Jalen.

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