Assuming the worst

[Iggles_Phan]

9 hours ago, cargo city said:

While I don’t think this is going to happen - for the sake of a hypothetical - let’s assume Hurts has a bad season and the organization determines he’s not our future qb. We then use both of our first rounders and draft a qb who isn’t ready to step in for game 1 of the 2023 season.

What’s Minshew’s contract situation next year? 

No worries.  Hurts would still be under contract, so they could let him hold the spot for the youngster... and Hurts would be dirt cheap on year 4 of his rookie deal.   Hard to believe that a guy that's been basically a rookie since the beginning would ever reach the end of his rookie deal.

[Iggles_Phan]

6 hours ago, nipples said:

I have a strong feeling that the Saints will be absolutely terrible this season. That pick will be top 10. There will be plenty of ammo to trade up even higher to grab a QB who can at least take over as the starter mid-season. 
 

Until then, there are always plenty of stop gap QBs to throw out there until the rookie is ready to go. 

Let's hope.   It all starts here:

Go Dirty Birds!!!

 

[pgcd3]

11 hours ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

What do you feel is an intermediate season where Howie will consider and extension but is otherwise is not particularly promising

There's a lot of factors but for example 3500 passing yards 22 TDs and a playoff win but generally not looking great against good teams

[EazyEaglez]

Most of the Jalen Hurts discussion is assuming the worst already. 😂 How about we assume the best for once?

[nipples]

5 hours ago, Shalodeep said:

Zero? They have weapons that could rival our own and a defense who isn't a slouch. 

7 wins tops. Let’s not forget who their QB is. They lost their head coach, who many believed to be one of the best coaches in the league. He was replaced by a retread who was already a failed head coach once.

Michael Thomas missed a bunch of games in 2020 then didn’t play at all last year… and is already questionable for week 1 this season. 

 

[Random Reglar]

13 hours ago, Mike030270 said:

If Hurts has a bad season then why would we need to use both 1sts to get a QB? We don't have a RB to lean on to win games. If he sucks and isn't the future then I'd assume we have a top pick

Also I don't know about the QB crop for 2023. I would think they would draft the QB who is able to start

Hurts won't have a bad season.  Someone might set a very high bar,  but Hurts won't be bad.  I can't really see an outcome where Hurts isn't starting next year.  It's possible they draft a qb if they don't want to pay Hurts 40 M a year in 2024

[Random Reglar]

4 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

No worries.  Hurts would still be under contract, so they could let him hold the spot for the youngster... and Hurts would be dirt cheap on year 4 of his rookie deal.   Hard to believe that a guy that's been basically a rookie since the beginning would ever reach the end of his rookie deal.

I can't see Hurts not starting at the  beginning of 2024. 

Most teams don't replace QBs who take the team to the playoffs every year. 

Lamar Jackson is starting his 5th year, he hasn't been signed to a long term contract. 

It would be reasonable for the Eagles to draft a Jalen Hurts type in the 2nd through 4th rounds.  A raw, high ceiling, fast runner.  Someone who is better than Minshew.  And then after the 2023 season, they make a decision about Hurts.  The titans have Tannehill and Willis, the falcons have Mariota and Ridder.  

Hurts could also do great and the Eagles could be ready to give them the big money after this season.

[Random Reglar]

11 hours ago, time2rock said:

I know that question wasn’t directed to me, but I'd say if Hurts makes only marginal improvement in his passing game and decision-making.  

Last year he had a completion % of 61.3 with 16 TDs vs 9 INTs and a rating of 87.2.

League average is approximately 66.5% and 92.2 rating.  

Ideally you'd like to see Hurts eclipse both to have sufficient confidence he can be "the guy" moving forward.  So you'd like to see him around 67-68% and a 97.0 rating (minimally).

If he improves on his 2021 numbers but only to around league average, that would qualify as an indeterminant season IMO since he does show improvement but is still "average".  I'd like to see a QB that falls within the top 10 before handing out a monster contract.  

If he does as well as last year or better, he'll be the starter in 2023.   Hurts is providing exceptional value on a 2nd round rookie deal.  They might be so happy they pay him early,  they might not, but they'd let him start in 2023.  Getting to the playoffs both years, good stuff.  

[Iggles_Phan]

11 hours ago, Random Reglar said:

I can't see Hurts not starting at the  beginning of 2024. 

Most teams don't replace QBs who take the team to the playoffs every year. 

Lamar Jackson is starting his 5th year, he hasn't been signed to a long term contract. 

It would be reasonable for the Eagles to draft a Jalen Hurts type in the 2nd through 4th rounds.  A raw, high ceiling, fast runner.  Someone who is better than Minshew.  And then after the 2023 season, they make a decision about Hurts.  The titans have Tannehill and Willis, the falcons have Mariota and Ridder.  

Hurts could also do great and the Eagles could be ready to give them the big money after this season.

That only happens if they give him an extension... and that's the biggest concern some folks (including me) have.   Investing big money into a QB that's limited as a passer and is overused as a runner is a bad investment.

[dawkins4prez]

12 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

No worries.  Hurts would still be under contract, so they could let him hold the spot for the youngster... and Hurts would be dirt cheap on year 4 of his rookie deal.   Hard to believe that a guy that's been basically a rookie since the beginning would ever reach the end of his rookie deal.

In a pinch you can even franchise him for a year.  A 1 yr overpay is fine at QB.

[CouchKing]

Speculating this early is mental mazzterbayshun.

Draft order needs to be set.

College prospect rankings need to develop based on their play this year.

The draft is fun, like a an off season appetizer.

But here comes the main course, the NFL season.

 

[EagleRob]

13 hours ago, JournalistMic said:

My question would be how many Eagles fans feel that Gardner Minshew is a better QB than Jalen Hurts and should start this week against the Lions?
I would assume that it would be a small percentage of Eagles fans, because he is a backup QB for a reason. I don't know how many trade requests came from the other 31 NFL teams and what they had offered for him to start for their team but I assume no offers came in.
Gardner is a decent backup QB, but I don't think he's a franchise QB. That being said if you feel that Jalen Hurts doesn't have what it takes to led the Eagles to a SuperBowl victory, I doubt you really believe that Gardner can.
That being said if Jalen doesn't play up to expectations, Gardner will get his chance. Way too much talent on this offense, the BEST OLine overall in Eagles history with depth.
The best receiving core (WR including TE Dallas & RB Boston is decent at catching too).

If you notice WRs having to correct, or slow down, or get overthrown too much in the Lions game it's time to be worried about Jalen.

No he won't.  This is Hurts make or break year. You can't determine that, if you pull him for the career backup. Only way you see Minshew this year is on clean up duty or if Hurts gets hurt.

I wouldn't be worried about my QB in week 1 after playing only 1 series in the preseason.  We can revisit this convo if he's struggling a 1/3 of the way into the season. 

[birdman#12]

With the supposed good QB class coming out next year and there are always 5-6 NFL teams that have QB as a top priority in the draft, the competition and the costs of drafting one will be very high.

The Eagles have the draft capital to make a run at one, especially if the saints sh-- the bed this year.  But just how bad does Hurts have to be for them to go that route?  Personally, I think Hurts makes a big jump this year and make the eagles decision next year pretty easy.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

23 hours ago, cargo city said:

While I don’t think this is going to happen - for the sake of a hypothetical - let’s assume Hurts has a bad season and the organization determines he’s not our future qb. We then use both of our first rounders and draft a qb who isn’t ready to step in for game 1 of the 2023 season.

What’s Minshew’s contract situation next year? 

I mean yeah sure but that's a really negative way to look at it. Maybe Hurts doesn't progress. Maybe he does have a bad year. But the team has the ammo to move up and get a QB next year if they want. And there will be guys who can come in and start whilst the rookie gets up to speed. 

[Cochis_Calhoun]

20 hours ago, time2rock said:

I know that question wasn’t directed to me, but I'd say if Hurts makes only marginal improvement in his passing game and decision-making.  

Last year he had a completion % of 61.3 with 16 TDs vs 9 INTs and a rating of 87.2.

League average is approximately 66.5% and 92.2 rating.  

Ideally you'd like to see Hurts eclipse both to have sufficient confidence he can be "the guy" moving forward.  So you'd like to see him around 67-68% and a 97.0 rating (minimally).

If he improves on his 2021 numbers but only to around league average, that would qualify as an indeterminant season IMO since he does show improvement but is still "average".  I'd like to see a QB that falls within the top 10 before handing out a monster contract.  

9 QB's in the history of the sport currently hold or registered a career rating above 97 and that's the minimum that you want him to hit?  We might as well start looking for a new guy now cos we'll be looking a loooong time, even a 92 for his career would make him top 20, that's top 20 all time.  A 67% completion percentage for his career as it stands as of right now would put him top 3 behind only the Houston Masseur botherer and Drew Brees, a full 3 percentage points better than Tom Brady and 2 better than the giant forehead.

[MF POON]

2 hours ago, 4for4EaglesNest said:

Holy F are you delusional.  He didn't take them to the playoffs.  The mere fact that they asked him to pass less is the reason the season turned around.  That's the complete opposite of "taking a team to the playoffs".  No to mention, if we didn't run into 3rd and 4th string QB's on Covid riddled teams the second half of last year, they wouldn't have made the playoffs anyway.  He was bottom half of the league in pretty much every statistical category for PASSING!  He held the offense back, especially against good teams.  

 

The Eagles will not draft another poor passing QB as a project, that I can guarantee you.  You used the Titans and Falcons as examples.  Yeah, that doesn't give anyone any sense of comfort.  Because neither one of those teams is in a good spot at the QB position, starter or back-up.  So yeah, great examples.  Ridder, Willis, Tannehill and Mariota?  🤣

His legs did help take us to the playoffs. This season we expect his arm to do so. Our defense was trash last year, so yes, I give a lot of credit to Hurts for getting us into the playoffs, even if it was against mostly crap teams.

[Iggles_Phan]

2 hours ago, Cochis_Calhoun said:

9 QB's in the history of the sport currently hold or registered a career rating above 97 and that's the minimum that you want him to hit?  We might as well start looking for a new guy now cos we'll be looking a loooong time, even a 92 for his career would make him top 20, that's top 20 all time.  A 67% completion percentage for his career as it stands as of right now would put him top 3 behind only the Houston Masseur botherer and Drew Brees, a full 3 percentage points better than Tom Brady and 2 better than the giant forehead.

Except that looking at historic numbers doesn't make as much sense.  I don't agree with the number being 97, but the reality is that over the last 5 years the 16th highest rating each year is dramatically higher than the 16th highest spot was 20 years ago.

2021 = 92.2 (Allen)
2020 = 95.9 (Minshew)
2019 = 91.2 (also Minshew!   )
2018 = 95.4 (Trubisky)
2017 = 89.2 (Taylor)

 

2001 = 77.7 (Brad Johnson)
2000 = 79.7 (Steve Buerlein)
1999 = 78.6 (Steve McNair)
1998 = 80.1 (Steve McNair)
1997 = 79.1 (Elvis Grbac)

 

That's a 12-15 point jump.  

Go back 20 more years... the number is around 73.

Go back 20 more years... the number is in the 50s.

 

It's a very different game today than it has been.  Gaudy passing stats compared to historical values are the norm.  I'm not saying that 97 should be the mark... but... 

Last 5 years... 10th highest passer rating: 98.5 (Mahomes), 101.4 (Carr), 99.7 (Prescott), 99.7 (Cousins), 95.4 (Wilson).   97 might be a bit low for a mega-deal contract being a smart move.

[Shalodeep]

2 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Except that looking at historic numbers doesn't make as much sense.  I don't agree with the number being 97, but the reality is that over the last 5 years the 16th highest rating each year is dramatically higher than the 16th highest spot was 20 years ago.

2021 = 92.2 (Allen)
2020 = 95.9 (Minshew)
2019 = 91.2 (also Minshew!   )
2018 = 95.4 (Trubisky)
2017 = 89.2 (Taylor)

 

2001 = 77.7 (Brad Johnson)
2000 = 79.7 (Steve Buerlein)
1999 = 78.6 (Steve McNair)
1998 = 80.1 (Steve McNair)
1997 = 79.1 (Elvis Grbac)

 

That's a 12-15 point jump.  

Go back 20 more years... the number is around 73.

Go back 20 more years... the number is in the 50s.

 

It's a very different game today than it has been.  Gaudy passing stats compared to historical values are the norm.  I'm not saying that 97 should be the mark... but... 

Last 5 years... 10th highest passer rating: 98.5 (Mahomes), 101.4 (Carr), 99.7 (Prescott), 99.7 (Cousins), 95.4 (Wilson).   97 might be a bit low for a mega-deal contract being a smart move.

So asking for top 16ish ranking may be too much. Well damn lol

[Talonblood]

Their 1st few posts, and they are "assuming the worst." 

[time2rock]

On 9/9/2022 at 10:30 AM, Cochis_Calhoun said:

9 QB's in the history of the sport currently hold or registered a career rating above 97 and that's the minimum that you want him to hit?  We might as well start looking for a new guy now cos we'll be looking a loooong time, even a 92 for his career would make him top 20, that's top 20 all time.  A 67% completion percentage for his career as it stands as of right now would put him top 3 behind only the Houston Masseur botherer and Drew Brees, a full 3 percentage points better than Tom Brady and 2 better than the giant forehead.

You're talking about career stats ... passer rating and completion % have been increasing every year.  I was simply referring to what I'd like to see this year in order to feel 100% confident in handing Hurts a massive contract.  Looking at the numbers for the top 20 QBs in those two stats from the 2021 season (excluding backup/reserve QBs that threw less than say 100 passes), 11 QBs ended the season with a rating above 97 and 12 QBs with a completion percentage above 67.  I used those numbers as the bar for what I'd like to see Hurts capable of achieving to know he is worthy of being the guy moving forward (I believe he needs to show he is a top 10 QB to be awarded with that kind of contract, otherwise you're dedicating a significant chunk of the cap to a QB that most likely isn't going to lead you anywhere).

 

[birdman#12]

On 9/8/2022 at 5:17 PM, Iggles_Phan said:

Let's hope.   It all starts here:

Go Dirty Birds!!!

 

I think the Falcons, as an organization, believes that football games are only 3 quarters, with the 4th quarter being a combined practice. They always sh-- the bed.

[Iggles_Phan]

3 minutes ago, birdman#12 said:

I think the Falcons, as an organization, believes that football games are only 3 quarters, with the 4th quarter being a combined practice. They always sh-- the bed.

Yep.  Sad for us.   They screwed us with an opening day loss to Dallas a couple years ago that they had in the bag too.