Calling all Capologists!

[Traveler Vic]

I saw a while back someone's post, who laid out our Cap situation, and the dates when we can release certain players scenarios. I searched for it, but could not  find it.

If anyone can find it or produce one, it would be awesome. I would love to know again How fast we can get rid of our DEAD WEIGHT, without drowning in the process. Thanks.

 

[20dawk4life]

https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2020/5/18/21261980/nfl-salary-cap-expert-explains-why-eagles-2021-situation-dire-appear-howie-roseman-carson-wentz-bgn

this was an interesting read. It paints the cap situation as not that bad. I still don't know if anyone can figure out Howie mess though

Quote

‘$50.7 million OVER the cap? The Eagles are totally screwed!’

Not quite. 

NFL salary cap expert Jason Fitzgerald recently talked about the Eagles’ 2021 outlook at length on the OTC Podcast. You can and should listen to the entire thing starting around the 48:42 mark but here’s a sampling for now: 

So, we have them about $50 million over our projected cap, and who knows what that will actually be [due to COVID-19 impact]. First thing I’ll throw in there is the [Marquise] Goodwin deal. I have, again, absolutely no idea as to what his numbers are. So, I have him counting at seven [million]. So, let’s just cut him, because he’s not going to count at seven and he’s probably just a one-year flier. So, effectively, you would probably look at this team and say they’re about 44 million over where they would be.

Okay, so now you start to slice and dice the roster. So, who are we getting rid of here? Just to go though some of these, you’ve got Alshon Jeffery, cut him. Now we’re at 36 [million]. […] DeSean Jackson, probably gonna go, that saves us another five [million]. You’re probably going to extend or doing something with [Derek] Barnett, but, whatever. […] You’ll probably do something with [Zach] Ertz’s deal. You’ll do something with Fletcher Cox’s deal. You can create a lot of money if you want to double down on Carson Wentz. […] Okay, so we brought him down to the minimum salary [by restructuring him], brought his cap number down to 16.3 [million]. So now we’ve brought the Eagles to $13 million over the cap. 

Now, remember where we talked about all that cap space they had from this year [2020]? That number is going to carry over. Now, it’s not going to be [the current figure of] $24 million at the end of the year, but let’s say they get into the regular season and you use up some of that. You’ll probably carry over $18 million.

 

So, basically what we’ve done is we’ve gotten rid of DeSean Jackson, we got rid of Alshon Jeffery, we restructured Carson Wentz, and we have about $6 million in cap space. And you look at Fletcher Cox at a $22 million cap charge, you’re probably going to be able to extend him. […] Cox has two years remaining on his contract plus one void [year]. You can easily extend him if you want to. You can probably bring that number down to 10 [million], you can probably extend him through 2024, that’ll bring him to 34 [years old] that year. You can probably work out an extension there to open a good amount of cap room where you’re $16 million under the cap at that point.

TL;DR — With the combination of 1) rollover money, 2) a couple cuts (and/or trades), and 3) some contract extensions/restructures, it’s hardly going to be impossible for the Eagles to get under the cap.

 

[B3]

11 minutes ago, Traveler Vic said:

I saw a while back someone's post, who laid out our Cap situation, and the dates when we can release certain players scenarios. I searched for it, but could not  find it.

If anyone can find it or produce one, it would be awesome. I would love to know again How fast we can get rid of our DEAD WEIGHT, without drowning in the process. Thanks.

 

Calling @paco

[paco]

2 hours ago, Traveler Vic said:

I saw a while back someone's post, who laid out our Cap situation, and the dates when we can release certain players scenarios. I searched for it, but could not  find it.

If anyone can find it or produce one, it would be awesome. I would love to know again How fast we can get rid of our DEAD WEIGHT, without drowning in the process. Thanks.

 

I went through their top 30 or so players and looked for the "fake years" on our players contracts that would result in a dead cap hit after their contract expires if that is what you are thinking of.   If you are interested, you can find it here.

 

Otherwise, I would suggest using Over the cap.  While its not 100% (things like incentives and various clauses are not made apparent), it gives you a good estimate as to the shape of the team.  

 

If you want to focus on the eagles specifically, here is what next year looks like:

Player	Base Salary	Prorated Bonus	Roster Bonus		Workout Bonus	Other Bonus		Guaranteed Salary		Cap Number		Dead Money & Cap Savings Cut (pre-June 1)Cut (post-June 1)Trade (pre-June 1)Trade (post-June 1)RestructureExtension
			Regular	Per Game
Fletcher Cox	$15,000,000	$6,447,000	$1,000,000	$0	$0	$0		$0		$22,447,000		$15,303,000	$7,144,000
Carson Wentz	$15,400,000	$9,273,536	$10,000,000	$0	$0	$0		$25,400,000		$34,673,536		$59,220,608	($24,547,072)
Alshon Jeffery	$12,750,000	$5,486,500	$0	$0	$250,000	$0		$0		$18,486,500		$10,509,500	$7,977,000
Zach Ertz	$8,250,000	$4,221,500	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$12,471,500		$7,769,500	$4,702,000
Lane Johnson	$9,565,000	$8,133,498	$0	$0	$150,000	$0		$9,565,000		$17,848,498		$39,002,494	($21,153,996)
DeSean Jackson	$8,200,000	$1,934,000	$0	$400,000	$400,000	$0		$0		$10,934,000		$5,802,000	$5,132,000
Brandon Brooks	$10,400,000	$4,054,235	$0	$0	$100,000	$0		$10,400,000		$14,554,235		$22,650,707	($8,096,472)
Jason Kelce	$5,500,000	$2,914,000	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$8,414,000		$10,142,000	($1,728,000)
Brandon Graham	$13,000,000	$4,928,000	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$17,928,000		$17,212,000	$716,000
Malik Jackson	$9,000,000	$3,611,000	$1,000,000	$0	$0	$0		$0		$13,611,000		$12,644,000	$967,000
Darius Slay	$12,000,000	$3,250,000	$0	$0	$500,000	$0		$12,000,000		$15,750,000		$21,750,000	($6,000,000)
Derek Barnett	$10,051,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$10,051,000		$0	$10,051,000
Javon Hargrave	$12,750,000	$2,450,000	$0	$0	$0	$0		$12,750,000		$15,200,000		$22,550,000	($7,350,000)
Andre Dillard	$1,619,692	$1,754,384	$0	$0	$0	$0		$1,619,692		$3,374,076		$7,310,498	($3,936,422)
Jake Elliott	$2,500,000	$774,000	$0	$0	$50,000	$0		$2,500,000		$3,324,000		$5,596,000	($2,272,000)
Jalen Reagor	$1,213,213	$1,802,850	$0	$0	$0	$0		$1,213,213		$3,016,063		$10,857,828	($7,841,765)
Rodney McLeod	$3,750,000	$600,000	$0	$750,000	$100,000	$0		$3,750,000		$5,200,000		$6,150,000	($950,000)
Isaac Seumalo	$4,000,000	$1,416,000	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$5,416,000		$4,864,000	$552,000
Dallas Goedert	$1,246,947	$542,597	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$1,789,544		$542,597	$1,246,947
Miles Sanders	$982,294	$479,587	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$1,461,881		$959,174	$502,707
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside	$945,112	$405,222	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$1,350,334		$810,444	$539,890
Rick Lovato	$990,000	$187,500	$0	$0	$50,000	$0		$0		$1,227,500		$562,500	$665,000
Jalen Hurts	$883,872	$485,486	$0	$0	$0	$0		$883,872		$1,369,358		$2,340,330	($970,972)
Avonte Maddox	$920,000	$156,478	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$1,076,478		$156,478	$920,000
Josh Sweat	$920,000	$149,398	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$1,069,398		$149,398	$920,000
Davion Taylor	$814,518	$208,073	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$1,022,591		$624,219	$398,372
K'Von Wallace	$780,000	$176,528	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$956,528		$529,584	$426,944
Matt Pryor	$920,000	$33,196	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$953,196		$33,196	$920,000
Craig James	$920,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$920,000		$0	$920,000
Genard Avery	$920,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$920,000		$0	$920,000
Jack Driscoll	$780,000	$123,600	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$903,600		$370,800	$532,800
Jordan Mailata	$920,000	$22,348	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$942,348		$22,348	$920,000
John Hightower	$780,000	$75,013	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$855,013		$225,039	$629,974
Nate Herbig	$850,000	$4,168	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$854,168		$4,168	$850,000
T.J. Edwards	$850,000	$4,168	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$854,168		$4,168	$850,000
Marcus Epps	$850,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$850,000		$0	$850,000
Shaun Bradley	$780,000	$42,855	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$822,855		$128,565	$694,290
Iosua Opeta	$850,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$850,000		$0	$850,000
Casey Toohill	$780,000	$23,008	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$803,008		$69,024	$733,984
Quez Watkins	$780,000	$42,415	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$822,415		$127,245	$695,170
Jason Huntley	$780,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$780,000		$0	$780,000
Marquise Goodwin	$3,950,000	$0	$0	$500,000	$50,000	$0		$0		$4,281,250		$0	$4,281,250

 

Cox, Jeffery, Ertz, Desean, Barnett, Goedart and Goodwin are the only players you can cut and save a million or more against the cap. (Assuming cuts made are considered before June 1 which is somewhat safe given we don't have a ton of space in 2022 either)  Furthermore, may of your big hits are players you don't want to extend or restructure due to their age or quality of play.  That's what makes next year so tricky.

The next few years are going to be painful.

[time2rock]

1 hour ago, 20dawk4life said:

https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2020/5/18/21261980/nfl-salary-cap-expert-explains-why-eagles-2021-situation-dire-appear-howie-roseman-carson-wentz-bgn

this was an interesting read. It paints the cap situation as not that bad. I still don't know if anyone can figure out Howie mess though

 

Interesting read, but at this point there is no way in hell I am "doubling down" on Wentz.  

[UK_EaglesFan89]

1 minute ago, time2rock said:

Interesting read, but at this point there is no way in hell I am "doubling down" on Wentz.  

Yeah absolutely no freaking way. I mean it's the kind of brain dead move Howie will make though. 

[time2rock]

9 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Yeah absolutely no freaking way. I mean it's the kind of brain dead move Howie will make though. 

Of course, it is more important for him to save face after making the decision to give up so much in order to draft Wentz.  And he's going to be desperate to make moves to get under the cap.  

[UK_EaglesFan89]

Just now, time2rock said:

Of course, it is more important for him to save face after making the decision to give up so much in order to draft Wentz.  And he's going to be desperate to make moves to get under the cap.  

I think they will double down on Wentz. Its such a Howie thing to do. 

[paco]

2 hours ago, 20dawk4life said:

https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2020/5/18/21261980/nfl-salary-cap-expert-explains-why-eagles-2021-situation-dire-appear-howie-roseman-carson-wentz-bgn

this was an interesting read. It paints the cap situation as not that bad. I still don't know if anyone can figure out Howie mess though

 

One thing that should be noted, those numbers are pre Covid.  With the loss of revenue due to the pandemic they are closer to 75 million over the cap.

Back in April on the old board (and I archived the posts over here), I went through ticket sales to come up with an estimate of what kind of hit a team will take with zero fans in the stands.  If you care, here it is.  Please note, this is ONLY taking into account ticket sales and not other factors  (TL;DR version - no ticket sales would result in roughly a 4 million dollar loss in space per team)

Spoiler

 I put WAYYYYYY too much work into this (for almost no payoff) to lose it on the old board:

On 4/10/2020 at 12:11 PM, paco said:

Total what if scenario.  What if the 2020 season is played, just in empty stadiums.  Would this cause a ripple effect and force the 2021 salary cap to experience the first decrease in NFL history?

 

Why could this be a possible outcome?  The cap is dictated by revenue.  That includes everything from TV contracts to jersey sales. And a big revenue generator is ticket sales.

 

How big?  Well, in 2019 recorded attendance was 16,894,856.  If you go VERY conservative and estimate that the average ticket cost was $150, that means ticket sales accounted for  $2,534,228,400.00 of league revenue.

 

So if COVID-19 is still a thing and they decide to play the season in empty stadiums\fields, that could cause the first decrease in salary cap.

 

Flame away

 

On 4/10/2020 at 1:47 PM, VaBeach_Eagle said:

As I understand it, only the 'profit' from ticket sales are included in the formula for the salary cap. Surely not 100% of ticket sales are counted as 'profit'. There's operating expenses and stadium salaries and field maintenance and so forth. Not to mention whatever money is owed on the stadium itself (if it isn't 100% paid for yet). So how much of the ticket sales are counted as profit?

 

On 4/10/2020 at 1:59 PM, VaBeach_Eagle said:

I found this article from last September, which speaks about NFL revenue:

Quote

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/062515/how-nfl-makes-money.asp

How The NFL Makes Money

TV is the NFL's golden goose, but gambling and streaming show potential.

 

By Jakob Eckstein

Updated Sep 24, 2019

By any measure, the NFL is the most successful American sports league in history. For all the talk of North America’s "Big Three” sports (or for hockey fans, Big Four), the reality is that there’s pro football, and then there’s everything else. 

 

In 2015, in response to mounting criticism for its quickly growing revenue, the NFL gave up the tax-exempt status it had held since 1947. The league now exists as a trade association made up of and financed by its 32 member teams. 31 of these teams are owned individually, only the Green Bay Packers retains its non-profit status. The NFL earns the lion’s share of its money with TV deals. According to Statista, more than 50% of the league’s revenue came from TV deals in 2015, a year when the league made about $12 billion. Other revenue streams include ticket sales, merchandising, and licensing rights and corporate sponsorships.

 

Despite steadily declining viewership since 2015 and recent controversies about concussions and the national anthem, the NFL is making more money than ever. Although, due to its private status, it is impossible to know exactly how much the NFL makes; Bloomberg estimates it earned around $15 billion during the 2018 season. This is up from estimates of $14.2 billion in 2017 and $13.3 billion in 2016. And the league is showing no intentions of slowing down. Commissioner Roger Goodell has targeted $25 billion in revenue by 2027, or 6% annual growth.

 

The Business Model

The NFL groups its revenue streams into two categories: "national revenue” and "local revenue.” 

 

National revenue consists of TV deals along with merchandising and licensing deals, which are negotiated at the national level by the NFL itself. This money is then divided evenly between the 32 teams regardless of individual performance. According to the Green Bay Packers’ 2018 annual report, the NFL earned over $8.1 billion in national revenue last year, meaning each team received about $255 million in national revenue from the league.

 

Local revenue, which consists of ticket sales, concessions, and corporate sponsors, is earned by the teams themselves. In 2018, the Packers earned $196 million in local revenue, 43% of their total revenue that year, which was $455 million.

 

However, the costs of running a professional football team are high. In 2018, the Packers spent $420 million on expenses. $213 million went to players, while $208 million went to stadium upkeep, marketing, and team and administrative costs. This leaves the team an operating income of $38.5 million. According to Forbes, the Dallas Cowboys are the NFL’s richest team, with $864 million in revenue and an operating income of $365 million in 2018.

 

This is the basic structure of the NFL’s business. Here’s how it breaks down.

 

 

• The NFL gave up its tax-exempt status in 2015.
• Commissioner Roger Goodell has targeted $25 billion in revenue by 2027.
• TV deals make up over half of the NFL’s revenue.
• The Green Bay Packers are the only NFL team run as a non-profit corporation.

Massive TV deals

Football is, hands down, the most-viewed sport in the U.S. Nineteen of the 20 most-viewed TV broadcasts in U.S. history are Superbowls of various years. In season, NFL games are broadcast live in the USA on Mondays, Thursdays, and Sundays. These games are consistently the highest rated shows on TV, so media companies have shelled out big bucks for the rights to broadcast them.

 

The NFL currently has TV deals with CBS, NBC (owned by Comcast), Fox, and ESPN (owned by Disney/Hearst). In contracts that were finalized in 2011, CBS, NBC, and Fox committed to pay the NFL a total of $39.6 billion between the 2014 and 2022 seasons. The three broadcasters share rights to "Sunday Night Football,” as well as annually rotating rights to the Super Bowl. Fees payed by these networks are set to rise about 7% annually, meaning they will each be paying the NFL about $3.1 billion per year by 2022.

 

In the same year, ESPN signed a deal to pay the NFL $15.2 billion through 2021 for the rights to "Monday Night Football.”

 

In 2018, Fox signed an additional deal for $3.3 billion for exclusive rights to "Thursday Night Football,” outbidding NBC and CBS.

 

Merchandising and Licensing Deals

Although the majority of its national revenue comes from its monster TV deals, the NFL also makes money by selling companies the rights to sell items that represent the NFL. For instance, the NFL, in partnership with Nike, signed a 10-year licensing deal with online sports-retailer Fanatics in 2018. This deal makes Fanatics the exclusive manufacturer of all adult-sized, Nike-branded merchandise sold through the NFL’s online store. 

 

The value of this deal went undisclosed, but in all likelihood, it’s pennies compared to the NFL’s TV deals. According to Navigate Research, a Chicago-based firm that specializes in the evaluation of sports and entertainment marketing investments, only about 10% of the NFL’s yearly revenue comes from these deals.

 

Ticket Sales and Concessions

Although ticket sales constitute an important revenue stream for individual NFL teams, they are nonetheless relatively small compared to quickly growing revenue from TV deals (you’re probably noticing a pattern here). On average, NFL stadiums seat about 70,000 people, and games usually sell out. This doesn’t leave much opportunity for growth. The average ticket price has increased about 7% annually since the turn of the century. Tickets cost about $30 in 2000 to about $102 in 2017, but the added revenue from these increases are negligible when compared to revenue growth from TV.

 

The one thing teams can do is choose to renovate their stadiums to add more seats and concession stands. Such renovations are costly and disruptive, but usually pay off. Since 2010, the Packers spent more than $370 million gradually updating its stadium, Lambeau Field, including adding more seats. Since then, their yearly ticket revenue has jumped from $48 million to $71 million.

 

NFL teams can also use their stadiums to host non-football events, like concerts, but opportunities for revenue growth from these events have the same limitations.

 

An NFL team earned about $7 million, on average, in ticket sales from a single stadium event in 2016. About 55% of that revenue is used to pay athletes or musicians. 10% goes to general stadium administration, 5% goes to the team’s coaching staff, 5% is paid in taxes, and the remaining 8% are profit.

 

Like ticket sales, concessions are peanuts compared to TV deals. Concessions contribute only about $3-5 million to the average NFL team’s revenue, but the margins on selling food at games are extremely high. Beer and soda sold at stadiums have margins of over 90%.

 

Only 8%

The average NFL team's profit margin of ticket sales.

Corporate Sponsors

Corporate sponsors pay NFL teams to display their logos on players’ uniforms, TV transitions, merchandise, etc. In 2018, the NFL pulled in over $1.3 billion in sponsorships. The most coveted sponsorships are naming rights to NFL stadiums. According to the New York Times, the naming rights to Met Life Stadium in New York and the AT&T Stadium in Dallas are both worth $19 million a year.

 

Future Plans

TV Growth

Contrary to some claims, TV isn’t dying, at least not when it comes to football. The value of the NFL’s TV deals has skyrocketed in the last few decades; by all accounts, it will likely continue to do so. As a result, the NFL’s biggest focus for reaching its aspirational $25 billion in revenue by 2025 is continuing to secure bigger and bigger TV deals.

 

Streaming

Although TV is still king when it comes to watching football, streaming is on the rise. In 2017, Verizon signed a new $2.5 billion deal with the NFL for five years of streaming rights. This is twice the size of the deal Verizon had with the NFL before. In April of 2018, Amazon signed a comparatively small deal of $130 million for two years of streaming rights. If the growth of TV deals in the last few decades are any indication, these deals will also continue to grow rapidly over the coming decades.

 

Gambling

Although the NFL has always officially been against sports gambling, that is likely to change soon. In May, the Supreme Court decided to let states determine whether or not to legalize sports gambling. As of July, eight states have already fully legalized the practice, while seven more have passed bills to do so. A legislative wave has begun. To capitalize on this, the NFL could set up betting parlors in stadiums, partner with established casinos, set up online sports gambling portals, etc. The possibilities are vast and there is no way the growth-obsessed NFL won’t explore as many as it can.

 

$150 Billion Annually

Estimated value of American sports gambling.

Key Challenges

Reliance on Star Power

The NFL relies on its star athletes to keep fans coming back, and when their biggest stars begin to fade, so do TV ratings. This was the case in 2016, 2017, and 2018, when ratings fell slightly for three consecutive years. In 2017, for instance, many of the league’s most popular players were injured—J.J. Watt, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Rob Gronkowski—stuck with bad teams—Russell Wilson, Von Miller, Eli Manning—or both, like Odell Beckham Jr.

 

This same logic also applies to popular teams. When few popular teams make the playoffs, fewer fans watch. According to the research firm MoffetNathanson, only half of the 10 most popular teams made it to the postseason in 2017. This could be connected to the 20% drop in viewership that year.

 

Political Controversy

As most Americans probably already know, President Trump has had some problems with the NFL in recent years and he’s made his distaste very clear. He repeatedly admonished the NFL in 2017 and 2018 about not cracking down hard enough on players for kneeling during the national anthem to protest police brutality. Many of his supporters boycotted the league as a result. However, it remains to be seen whether this political entanglement will last.

 

 

On 4/10/2020 at 3:12 PM, paco said:

 

Thats a good point, thank you!

 

So if profit is roughly 8%, that means  $202,738,272.00 of profit lost at 2019 attendance numbers and an average ticket price of $150.  (Again, this is very conservative)

I forget what the split is in the new CBA, but lets say 50/50 because I'm too lazy to look it up. That takes us to  $101,369,136.00 or  $3,167,785.50 per team.

 

For giggles, I created a quick table of per team losses based on the above information at different average ticket prices.  I probably went too far on the high end, only because I don't know how much $$$ the suites bring in and what that does to the overall average.  But screw it, its a nice even number

ATC    Cap lost per team
 $150.00      $3,167,785.50 
 $175.00      $3,695,749.75 
 $200.00      $4,223,714.00 
 $225.00      $4,751,678.25 
 $250.00      $5,279,642.50 
 $275.00      $5,807,606.75 
 $300.00      $6,335,571.00 
 $325.00      $6,863,535.25 
 $350.00      $7,391,499.50 
 $375.00      $7,919,463.75 
 $400.00      $8,447,428.00 
 

And you can probably tack on another 2-3 million with the loss of concessions.

 

On 4/10/2020 at 3:47 PM, VaBeach_Eagle said:

Not sure how much this would add, but you can also include parking fees.

 

On 4/10/2020 at 4:58 PM, paco said:

Welp, I found an average price of tickets by team.   I guess I can now hook that into my spreadsheet and get closer to the real total for 2019.  But I'm not doing that now

 

Average Ticket Prices Per NFL Team

The following average ticket prices for NFL teams listed below are ranked by their 2019 prices, from most to least expensive.

Average Ticket Cost
NFL Team	2017	2018	2019
New England Patriots	$348	$355	$501
Chicago Bears	$186	$246	$376
Green Bay Packers	$226	$243	$243
New Orleans Saints	$160	$216	$301
Denver Broncos	$264	$196	$278
Seattle Seahawks	$223	$236	$248
Philadelphia Eagles	$199	$208	$256
Pittsburgh Steelers	$201	$195	$221
Los Angeles Chargers	$191	$157	$191
Washington Redskins	$109	$131	$167
Dallas Cowboys	$225	$141	$258
Cleveland Browns	$62	$80	$190
Oakland Raiders	$179	$145	$149
Kansas City Chiefs	$90	$102	$209
Miami Dolphins	$139	$104	$143
Detroit Lions	$117	$108	$122
Houston Texans	$123	$126	$145
Minnesota Vikings	$156	$172	$187
San Francisco 49ers	$98	$126	$178
Baltimore Ravens	$105	$100	$129
Tennessee Titans	$127	$185	$148
Atlanta Falcons	$210	$136	$170
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	$153	$151	$150
New York Jets	$75	$88	$117
Cincinnati Bengals	$70	$86	$114
Carolina Panthers	$156	$169	$131
Arizona Cardinals	$107	$82	$93
New York Giants	$155	$137	$152
Los Angeles Rams	$108	$119	$114
Jacksonville Jaguars	$61	$113	$98
Indianapolis Colts	$59	$107	$114
Buffalo Bills	$86	$63	$105

 

 

On 4/10/2020 at 5:40 PM, paco said:

Looks like I wasn't too far off with the estimate.  Average ticket price, not adjusted for attendance, was $187.  (Average ticket price adjusted for attendance is  $190.14)

 

I did take each teams average ticket price and linked it to each teams attendance for 2019 and came up with a "real" sum

TEAM	Total Attendance	Avg Ticket	Total revenue
Dallas	727,432	$  258.00	$ 187,677,456.00
NY Jets	628,184	$  117.00	$  73,497,528.00
Green Bay	622,762	$  243.00	$  151,331,166.00
Denver	607,497	$  278.00	$ 168,884,166.00
NY Giants	597,316	$  152.00	$ 90,792,032.00
Kansas City	587,723	$  209.00	$ 122,834,107.00
New Orleans	584,660	$  301.00	$  175,982,660.00
Carolina	577,765	$  131.00	$  75,687,215.00
Houston	574,345	$  145.00	$ 83,280,025.00
Atlanta	572,811	$  170.00	$ 97,377,870.00
Los Angeles Rams	498,605	$  114.00	$  56,840,970.00
Baltimore	565,020	$  129.00	$ 72,887,580.00
San Francisco	562,443	$  178.00	$ 100,114,854.00
Philadelphia	558,268	$  256.00	$ 142,916,608.00
Seattle	551,927	$  248.00	$ 136,877,896.00
Buffalo	550,713	$  105.00	$  57,824,865.00
Cleveland	539,448	$  190.00	$ 102,495,120.00
Minnesota	534,794	$  187.00	$ 100,006,478.00
New England	526,024	$  501.00	$ 263,538,024.00
Washington	523,906	$  167.00	$ 87,492,302.00
Tennessee	516,074	$  148.00	$ 76,378,952.00
Jacksonville	504,686	$    98.00	$ 49,459,228.00
Miami	504,540	$  143.00	$ 72,149,220.00
Pittsburgh	497,896	$  221.00	$ 110,035,016.00
Chicago	495,332	$  376.00	$ 186,244,832.00
Detroit	490,737	$  122.00	$ 59,869,914.00
Arizona	490,586	$    93.00	$ 45,624,498.00
Indianapolis	488,886	$  114.00	$ 55,733,004.00
Las Vegas	367,848	$  149.00	$ 54,809,352.00
Tampa Bay	415,189	$  150.00	$ 62,278,350.00
Cincinnati	377,432	$  114.00	$ 43,027,248.00
Los Angeles Chargers	254,007	$  191.00	$ 48,515,337.00
	16,894,856.00	$  187.44	$ 3,212,463,873.00

 

So what does that all mean in regards to the cap? $4 million in cap space lost per team.  Not including concessions.

Total revenue	$ 3,212,463,873.00
Estimated profit %	8%
Profit	$  256,997,109.84
Player %	50%
Players share	$  128,498,554.92
Cap Revenue lost per team	$ 4,015,579.84

 

 

 

 

 

 

28 minutes ago, time2rock said:

Interesting read, but at this point there is no way in hell I am "doubling down" on Wentz.  

Sadly, a restructure of his contract to convert his base salary into bonus money may be the only way to get under next year.  And of course this will make it more difficult to move on from him if they decide he is not their guy.  

 

Needing to constantly restructure contracts just to field a team?  Welcome to Cap Hell.

[20dawk4life]

32 minutes ago, paco said:

One thing that should be noted, those numbers are pre Covid.  With the loss of revenue due to the pandemic they are closer to 75 million over the cap.

I didn’t reread that article but one of the ones I read the other day did mention the covid situation. And screw you im staying positive. 

[time2rock]

44 minutes ago, paco said:

Sadly, a restructure of his contract to convert his base salary into bonus money may be the only way to get under next year.  And of course this will make it more difficult to move on from him if they decide he is not their guy.  

I haven't fully given up hope on Wentz ... he has proven in the past to be very good ... with the right support system.  I think a lot of the issues with Wentz now are from a stagnant offense that Doug is calling that lacks any kind of creativity and from the lack of a strong QB coach to help with Wentz's continued development - it seems to have led to a lack of confidence.  I wonder if Doug were let go and someone new were in charge of bringing in a new offensive system would help.  But until he proves he can get somewhat close to what he was in 2017, I'm doing anything I can to avoid restructuring his contract that makes it even harder to move on from him.  

[paco]

28 minutes ago, 20dawk4life said:

I didn’t reread that article but one of the ones I read the other day did mention the covid situation. And screw you im staying positive. 

It's doom and gloom damn it!!  Cats marrying dogs!  Beer replaced with white claw!  The R-words will finish higher than us!!!

[Alpha_TATEr]

1 hour ago, paco said:

I went through their top 30 or so players and looked for the "fake years" on our players contracts that would result in a dead cap hit after their contract expires if that is what you are thinking of.   If you are interested, you can find it here.

 

Otherwise, I would suggest using Over the cap.  While its not 100% (things like incentives and various clauses are not made apparent), it gives you a good estimate as to the shape of the team.  

 

If you want to focus on the eagles specifically, here is what next year looks like:

Player	Base Salary	Prorated Bonus	Roster Bonus		Workout Bonus	Other Bonus		Guaranteed Salary		Cap Number		Dead Money & Cap Savings Cut (pre-June 1)Cut (post-June 1)Trade (pre-June 1)Trade (post-June 1)RestructureExtension
			Regular	Per Game
Fletcher Cox	$15,000,000	$6,447,000	$1,000,000	$0	$0	$0		$0		$22,447,000		$15,303,000	$7,144,000
Carson Wentz	$15,400,000	$9,273,536	$10,000,000	$0	$0	$0		$25,400,000		$34,673,536		$59,220,608	($24,547,072)
Alshon Jeffery	$12,750,000	$5,486,500	$0	$0	$250,000	$0		$0		$18,486,500		$10,509,500	$7,977,000
Zach Ertz	$8,250,000	$4,221,500	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$12,471,500		$7,769,500	$4,702,000
Lane Johnson	$9,565,000	$8,133,498	$0	$0	$150,000	$0		$9,565,000		$17,848,498		$39,002,494	($21,153,996)
DeSean Jackson	$8,200,000	$1,934,000	$0	$400,000	$400,000	$0		$0		$10,934,000		$5,802,000	$5,132,000
Brandon Brooks	$10,400,000	$4,054,235	$0	$0	$100,000	$0		$10,400,000		$14,554,235		$22,650,707	($8,096,472)
Jason Kelce	$5,500,000	$2,914,000	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$8,414,000		$10,142,000	($1,728,000)
Brandon Graham	$13,000,000	$4,928,000	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$17,928,000		$17,212,000	$716,000
Malik Jackson	$9,000,000	$3,611,000	$1,000,000	$0	$0	$0		$0		$13,611,000		$12,644,000	$967,000
Darius Slay	$12,000,000	$3,250,000	$0	$0	$500,000	$0		$12,000,000		$15,750,000		$21,750,000	($6,000,000)
Derek Barnett	$10,051,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$10,051,000		$0	$10,051,000
Javon Hargrave	$12,750,000	$2,450,000	$0	$0	$0	$0		$12,750,000		$15,200,000		$22,550,000	($7,350,000)
Andre Dillard	$1,619,692	$1,754,384	$0	$0	$0	$0		$1,619,692		$3,374,076		$7,310,498	($3,936,422)
Jake Elliott	$2,500,000	$774,000	$0	$0	$50,000	$0		$2,500,000		$3,324,000		$5,596,000	($2,272,000)
Jalen Reagor	$1,213,213	$1,802,850	$0	$0	$0	$0		$1,213,213		$3,016,063		$10,857,828	($7,841,765)
Rodney McLeod	$3,750,000	$600,000	$0	$750,000	$100,000	$0		$3,750,000		$5,200,000		$6,150,000	($950,000)
Isaac Seumalo	$4,000,000	$1,416,000	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$5,416,000		$4,864,000	$552,000
Dallas Goedert	$1,246,947	$542,597	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$1,789,544		$542,597	$1,246,947
Miles Sanders	$982,294	$479,587	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$1,461,881		$959,174	$502,707
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside	$945,112	$405,222	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$1,350,334		$810,444	$539,890
Rick Lovato	$990,000	$187,500	$0	$0	$50,000	$0		$0		$1,227,500		$562,500	$665,000
Jalen Hurts	$883,872	$485,486	$0	$0	$0	$0		$883,872		$1,369,358		$2,340,330	($970,972)
Avonte Maddox	$920,000	$156,478	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$1,076,478		$156,478	$920,000
Josh Sweat	$920,000	$149,398	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$1,069,398		$149,398	$920,000
Davion Taylor	$814,518	$208,073	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$1,022,591		$624,219	$398,372
K'Von Wallace	$780,000	$176,528	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$956,528		$529,584	$426,944
Matt Pryor	$920,000	$33,196	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$953,196		$33,196	$920,000
Craig James	$920,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$920,000		$0	$920,000
Genard Avery	$920,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$920,000		$0	$920,000
Jack Driscoll	$780,000	$123,600	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$903,600		$370,800	$532,800
Jordan Mailata	$920,000	$22,348	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$942,348		$22,348	$920,000
John Hightower	$780,000	$75,013	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$855,013		$225,039	$629,974
Nate Herbig	$850,000	$4,168	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$854,168		$4,168	$850,000
T.J. Edwards	$850,000	$4,168	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$854,168		$4,168	$850,000
Marcus Epps	$850,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$850,000		$0	$850,000
Shaun Bradley	$780,000	$42,855	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$822,855		$128,565	$694,290
Iosua Opeta	$850,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$850,000		$0	$850,000
Casey Toohill	$780,000	$23,008	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$803,008		$69,024	$733,984
Quez Watkins	$780,000	$42,415	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$822,415		$127,245	$695,170
Jason Huntley	$780,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0		$0		$780,000		$0	$780,000
Marquise Goodwin	$3,950,000	$0	$0	$500,000	$50,000	$0		$0		$4,281,250		$0	$4,281,250

 

Cox, Jeffery, Ertz, Desean, Barnett, Goedart and Goodwin are the only players you can cut and save a million or more against the cap. (Assuming cuts made are considered before June 1 which is somewhat safe given we don't have a ton of space in 2022 either)  Furthermore, may of your big hits are players you don't want to extend or restructure due to their age or quality of play.  That's what makes next year so tricky.

The next few years are going to be painful.

bye bye jackson and jeffery. 

[paco]

5 minutes ago, Alpha_TATEr said:

bye bye jackson and jeffery. 

 

 

Also why I'm good with a fire sale.  This season is done.  Trade players like Cox, Ertz, etc.  We need to get younger and cheaper fast. 

 

We do have some young talent on the team and it will be squandered if we keep trying to make moves to try to be competitive short term.  Take the medicine, suffer a year or two and come out of it with a younger team and cap flexibility.  

[time2rock]

5 minutes ago, paco said:

Also why I'm good with a fire sale.  This season is done.  Trade players like Cox, Ertz, etc.  We need to get younger and cheaper fast. 

We do have some young talent on the team and it will be squandered if we keep trying to make moves to try to be competitive short term.  Take the medicine, suffer a year or two and come out of it with a younger team and cap flexibility.  

Some will argue the division is extremely weak and we could sneak into the playoffs as a result (if we put it together enough to win the division ... which I don't see happening ... as much as it pains me to say it, we aren't competing with Dallas).  Even if we did we'd only be hurting our draft position as we'd in all likeliness be one and done (again).  I do agree it may be time to start looking to reload with younger players, and to do that it sure would help to have additional draft picks at our disposal (so trading Ertz and Cox doesn't seem so far-fetched).  The only problem with that approach is, you have someone who can't draft worth a ish using those picks.  So the best approach would be to have a change at GM coincide with having those extra picks.  

[Alpha_TATEr]

14 minutes ago, paco said:

 

 

Also why I'm good with a fire sale.  This season is done.  Trade players like Cox, Ertz, etc.  We need to get younger and cheaper fast. 

 

We do have some young talent on the team and it will be squandered if we keep trying to make moves to try to be competitive short term.  Take the medicine, suffer a year or two and come out of it with a younger team and cap flexibility.  

i would do it. division's is weak so even with a fire sale, the team can probably stay some what competitive during the transition. 

[paco]

8 minutes ago, time2rock said:

Some will argue the division is extremely weak and we could sneak into the playoffs as a result (if we put it together enough to win the division ... which I don't see happening ... as much as it pains me to say it, we aren't competing with Dallas).  Even if we did we'd only be hurting our draft position as we'd in all likeliness be one and done (again).  I do agree it may be time to start looking to reload with younger players, and to do that it sure would help to have additional draft picks at our disposal (so trading Ertz and Cox doesn't seem so far-fetched).  The only problem with that approach is, you have someone who can't draft worth a ish using those picks.  So the best approach would be to have a change at GM coincide with having those extra picks.  

Yup.  I couldn't agree more.  

 

I would suggest we bring in a consultant.  One dirty little secret that most people don't realize is that after the R-words fired and drug his name through the mud, the eagles brought in their former GM Scot McCloughan for two years to help with scouting.  And what happened?  We nailed the FA class and even had some decent picks while he was here.  Why not go back to that well again?  Howie is hanging on to power, understandably, so why not bring in a team to support him.  He could EAISLY save his job by saying "ok, here is where we are at and here is the plan and these are the people who are going to execute it".  

[20dawk4life]

27 minutes ago, paco said:

It's doom and gloom damn it!!  Cats marrying dogs!  Beer replaced with white claw!  The R-words will finish higher than us!!!

 

[Godfather]

A lot of overpaid ish players will be gone next season

[Dawkins 20]

The bottom line, as @paco has done a great job discussing, is that the team has essentially two options: 1. Blow it up, rip the bandaid off, and have a couple of painful years by jettisoning older/expensive players and slowly rebuilding with younger and cheaper talent. Unfortunately this option doesn't operate in a vaccum and there is no guarantee of success just because they started over. The team needs to not only hit on their draft picks, but develop them properly as well. If you don't feel like you have the proper front office and coaching personnel to accomplish that, then you're doing a full blown organizational reset. 

Option number two is to stay the course, continue kicking the salary cap can down the road, and never really addressing the situation properly until it blows up in spectacular fashion. You basically become to mid-2000's Redskins. The Raiders and Titans were in this boat around the same time too. All 3 had some truly awful rosters at one point out of necessity. 

The problem with the Eagles is that they have so many big-money players that actually cost more to trade/cut than they do to keep (due to, you guessed it, restructures/kicking the can down the road). They also have a huge problem that paco pointed out with fake years lowering the annual cap hits for a number of players, but all becoming due for cap purposes as soon as these deals automatically void. 

I feel like the Eagles will be forced to extend/kick the can even further down the road with a few players just to be cap compliant. Wentz is almost a necessity to be restructured which is a huge problem if they don't feel like he's the guy long-term. They're almost in this weird hybrid mix of option one and two, which IMO is a horrible position to be in. There are no magic wand situations, no "HoWiE iS a CaP gEnIuS aNd WiLl FiGuRe It OuT!!!" scenario. It's either pain now, pain later, or pain for a few years depending on how they decide to move forward. 

[eagle45]

Extending Carson Wentz isn't an option right now.  It just isn't.

I don't like kicking the can further down the road with Cox.  

[Dawkins 20]

19 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

Extending Carson Wentz isn't an option right now.  It just isn't.

I don't like kicking the can further down the road with Cox.  

Back in the middle of the summer I made a post in the WU Eagles thread about lowering Wentz's cap number for the upcoming salary cap crunch next year. It didn't involve extending him, but it severely inflated his cap numbers beyond 2021 for the remainder of his contract in order to be compliant in '21. I'm kinda busy at work but I'll see if I can dig it up this afternoon. 

[Dawkins 20]

I was able to find a couple of posts I made on this subject back in the summer:

 

On 7/29/2020 at 1:11 PM, Dawkins 20 said:

It's going to be a chore for them to even get under the cap in 2021 without significant restructures/releases. Right now they're $22m under so they can roll that forward to next year which leaves them at around $50m over for 2021.

 

Here is everyone else that carries a 7 figure cap savings if cut prior to June 1:

Fletcher Cox - $7.1m in savings ($15.3m dead money)

Alshon Jeffery - $7.9m in savings ($10.5m dead money)

Zach Ertz - $4.7m in savings ($7.7m dead money)

DeSean Jackson - $5.1m in savings ($5.8m dead money)

Brandon Brooks - $2.3m in savings ($12.2m dead money)

Marquise Goodwin - $7.0m in savings ($0 dead money - not sure how this works tho with him opting out)

Derek Barnett - $10.0m in savings ($0 dead money)

Dallas Goedert - $1.2m in savings ($500k dead money)

 

That's it. Literally everyone else is either a 6 figure cap savings if cut before June 1 or has their cap hit actually INCREASE if cut (ie: Wentz's cap hit for 2021 is $34.6m but if we released him prior to June 1, his cap hit jumps to $59.2m. Same situation applies albeit with different amounts for Lane Johnson, Jason Kelce, Darius Slay, Javon Hargrave, Andre Dillard, .... you get the idea).

Yes, we can designate players as post-June 1st cuts. And yes, we can restructure some guys to lower their 2021 cap hits. But all you're doing in those situations is kicking the can down the road. Eventually the piper must be paid. Howie is most likely going to have to get a few guys to restructure and cut a few more just to even get under the cap (with post-June 1 designations to boot)... and that doesn't even include bringing in any free agents (get ready for the scrap heap/3rd wave of free agents if we get any at all). So not only is next year's cap boned, but if (when) Howie ends up restructuring a few deals and making some post-June 1 designations, he's also boning the 2022 cap and possibly a couple of years after that as well.

This team is Foooked. They better win the Super Bowl this year.... if there even is one.

 

 

On 7/29/2020 at 3:16 PM, Dawkins 20 said:

Realistically, without extending Wentz again, they could convert his 2021 base salary and roster bonus to a signing bonus and amortize it over the four remaining years. I'm not sure if there are any limits in place for doing this or what his base salary would need to be, but for argument's sake let's say his base salary for 2021 becomes $1m.

 

So essentially you're taking $14,400,000 from his base salary plus the $10,000,000 roster bonus and converting it to a signing bonus of $24,400,000 and then amortizing that over the 4 remaining years of the contract ($6,100,000 per year). You save $18,300,000 for cap purposes in 2021 but punt it down the road to count against the 2022-2024 cap years. This is a no brainer move to get out from under Capageddon 2021, but we can't keep doing this year after year after year.

 

 

[Traveler Vic]

So basically as far as the cap: COX, Ertz, Jeffery, Jackson, Brooks, Goodwin, Barnett are on my trade /release list in 2021. Goedert is a keeper.

Considering we are Fed: We may not need expensive services of Graham, Malik Jackson, and Barnett in the future years.

Lurie has to wake up, for any meaningful change to begin.

HOWIE has to GO!

Doug??? We will see what happens with Doug..as long as he is not a signal caller.

JS??? JS's troops are dropping like flies and his soft scheme is a liability. Howie's idiotic LBs don't matter.. dug a grave for JS scheme.  JS was not this bad when he had LBs. Bradham and  Kendricks, or Jenkins sliding in.

Wentz..we are married to him whether we like it or not for some time. 

I would rather make changes ASAP than keep stagnating for a decade, if the Howie keeps kicking the can down the road the way he has been doing it.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

11 hours ago, Traveler Vic said:

So basically as far as the cap: COX, Ertz, Jeffery, Jackson, Brooks, Goodwin, Barnett are on my trade /release list in 2021. Goedert is a keeper.

I think that's a pretty good list there. Certainly they could get something for Cox and Ertz and perhaps even Brooks. Not sure they'd get a lot for the others though so that's a simple cut for those.