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2023: Continued dead cap hell (Currently $54 Million)


paco
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Everyone is talking about how we are $71 million over the cap next year and there has been debate about "oh, we just cut this guy and restructure that guy and carry over this years space and..."  to handle our 2021 cap situation.  What is not being talked about is how Howie loves to build in "fake years" into ne contracts to further spread out the signing bonus to lower current year cap #'s.  ("Fake years" meaning the contract may be for 5 years, but the last two years automatically void when you get to year 4, so it has 2 fake years)  Sure, it looked great this year when we got Slay, Hargrave, etc for about 5 cents, but that bill will be paid at some point.  Its something I've been wondering.... how many of these contracts do we have on the books and when will it hit?

Well, I haven't done the entire roster yet (but I am at a point where I hit all the big contracts and wont find anything significantly different) and its already worse that I thought.  Below are all of the "fake years" and the dead cap hit for each player.  Note that the entirety of the dead cap hit takes place on the first of the fake years (it is not spread out)

 

Fletcher Cox - Fake year in 2023.  $3.6 million
Alshon Jeffery - Two fake years starting 2022.  $5 million
Zach Ertz - Two fake years starting 2022.  $3.5 million
Lane Johnson - Three fake years starting in 2026.  $1.2 million
DeSean Jackson - Two fake years starting 2022.  $3.86 million
Jason Kelce - Three fake years starting in 2022.  $7.2 million
Brandon Graham - Three fake years starting in 2022.  $12.2 million
Malik Jackson - Three fake years starting in 2022.  $9 million
Darius Slay - Two fake years starting 2022.  $2.5 million
Javon Hargrave - Two fake years starting 2023.  $5 million
Rodney McLeod - Three fake years starting in 2022.  $1.8 million
Isaac Seumalo - Two fake years starting 2023.  $2 million

 

 

What does this mean?  Well, assuming 1) everyone lives out their contract and 2) there is no further restructuring, in 2022 we are looking at a $45 MILLION DOLLAR DEAD CAP HIT.  

VKL5P2YOIZC4TOS7LMIKZFYMZI.jpg

 

CAP GENIUS 

 

Edit:

Running totals:

2022: $52 million

2023: 

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His time has come, he has made a complete mess out of this roster and hitched our wagon to what he hoped would be a star QB but is nothing more than average.  It's just unfortunate that Lurie will likely continue to give him the benefit of the doubt because of the SB year (at least for a few more years ... I'd think we'd have to have a string of really bad seasons, like 3 or 4 win seasons before Lurie would consider a change).   

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9 minutes ago, paco said:

Everyone is talking about how we are $71 million over the cap next year and there has been debate about "oh, we just cut this guy and restructure that guy and carry over this years space and..."  to handle our 2021 cap situation.  What is not being talked about is how Howie loves to build in "fake years" into ne contracts to further spread out the signing bonus to lower current year cap #'s.  ("Fake years" meaning the contract may be for 5 years, but the last two years automatically void when you get to year 4, so it has 2 fake years)  Sure, it looked great this year when we got Slay, Hargrave, etc for about 5 cents, but that bill will be paid at some point.  Its something I've been wondering.... how many of these contracts do we have on the books and when will it hit.

Well, I haven't done the entire roster yet (but I am at a point where I hit all the big contracts and wont find anything significantly different) and its already worse that I thought.  Below are all of the "fake years" and the dead cap hit for each player.  Note that the entirety of the dead cap hit takes place on the first of the fake years (it is not spread out)

 

Fletcher Cox - Fake year in 2023.  $3.6 million
Alshon Jeffery - Two fake years starting 2022.  $5 million
Zach Ertz - Two fake years starting 2022.  $3.5 million
Lane Johnson - Three fake years starting in 2026.  $1.2 million
DeSean Jackson - Two fake years starting 2022.  $3.86 million
Jason Kelce - Three fake years starting in 2022.  $7.2 million
Brandon Graham - Three fake years starting in 2022.  $12.2 million
Malik Jackson - Three fake years starting in 2022.  $9 million
Darius Slay - Two fake years starting 2022.  $2.5 million
Javon Hargrave - Two fake years starting 2023.  $5 million
Rodney McLeod - Three fake years starting in 2022.  $1.8 million
Isaac Seumalo - Two fake years starting 2023.  $2 million

 

 

What does this mean?  Well, assuming 1) everyone lives out their contract and 2) there is no further restructuring, in 2022 we are looking at a $45 MILLION DOLLAR DEAD CAP HIT.  

VKL5P2YOIZC4TOS7LMIKZFYMZI.jpg

 

CAP GENIUS 

And if they chose to get out of Wentz contract after 2021? Believe that adds another $24M in dead cap. So we are either stuck with a crap load of dead cap, an extremely expensive backup QB, or more of the same Wentz BS for the next few years. Wonderful. 
 

Thank god the Flyers look to be heading in the right direction or Philly sports would be entirely unbearable for the foreseeable future. 

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5 minutes ago, time2rock said:

His time has come, he has made a complete mess out of this roster and hitched our wagon to what he hoped would be a star QB but is nothing more than average.  It's just unfortunate that Lurie will likely continue to give him the benefit of the doubt because of the SB year (at least for a few more years ... I'd think we'd have to have a string of really bad seasons, like 3 or 4 win seasons before Lurie would consider a change).   

You may get your wish.  We won't be able to sign any FA's to plug in holes for 2 years, our last few drafts have been Meh.  AT LEAST we haven't been passing a ton of picks away like he did the last few years.

 

So yeah, its going to be rough

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6 minutes ago, nipples said:

And if they chose to get out of Wentz contract after 2021? Believe that adds another $24M in dead cap. So we are either stuck with a crap load of dead cap, an extremely expensive backup QB, or more of the same Wentz BS for the next few years. Wonderful. 
 

Thank god the Flyers look to be heading in the right direction or Philly sports would be entirely unbearable for the foreseeable future. 

It would be 24.5 million with  a 6.7 million dollars "savings".  They could also designate it to be a post june cut\trade and spread it out over two years making it a 2022 $9.2 million dollar dead cap hit and a $22 million dollar "savings".

 

That might be one of their best outs making the Hurts pick make a bit more sense

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howie threw money at the wrong players and that's going to hurt us for a long time, pats were successful because they didnt overpay for anyone.

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3 minutes ago, Madriver said:

Does Doug's contract factor into this at all? Didn't he just get re-upped recently?

No.  You can pay a coach eleven billionty dollars and it doesn't affect the cap.

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14 minutes ago, paco said:

You may get your wish.  We won't be able to sign any FA's to plug in holes for 2 years, our last few drafts have been Meh.  AT LEAST we haven't been passing a ton of picks away like he did the last few years.

... not that Howie makes the best use of those picks on draft day.  

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12 minutes ago, time2rock said:

... not that Howie makes the best use of those picks on draft day.  

i mean we had two chances to get two good receivers, heck even a great running back last year, it's a disaster.

if howie doesnt get canned, we are going to be bad for years.

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Seems like from now till at least 2024 the Eagles are gonna be in cap purgatory thanks to Howie’s bad contracts, and terrible draft selections. Worst part is DP likely gets blamed for Howie giving him trash to work with. 

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Nobody knows what the cap is going to look like next year. There is a lot of speculation but nothing solid. The NFL/NFLPA will probably come to some agreement as the NFL doesnt want some of these teams to purge half their roster and the NFLPA wants to make sure their players are paid.

Even with that said, the NFL might say F it and teams like the Eagles will have to purge their roster in 2021. That means that a lot of these guys will be gone and those fake years will escalate into next year.

I have been a fan of Howie and thought that he has this, but I think he is really playing with fire here. This team might be consistent of a bunch of UDFA playing meaningful time next year.

 

 

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Well at least we've strung together a bunch of decent drafts so we'll have some young talent develop and step up.

Oh wait....

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I think that Howie started to get too cocky thinking he was a cap genius, GM of the year and his moves resulted in a Super Bowl win.  You have to admit, his trades and free agent signings in 2017 did help them win.

However, since then he's extended players he should have let walk, given bad contracts, traded away draft capital thinking he could buy another championship and put them in a bad cap situation.  He's kicked the can down the road too much and now it's a real problem.  As @paco explained, there will be no money to sign outside free agents to plug holes anymore.  Some players might not even want to restructure anymore and instead force them to pay what they agreed or be traded or released.  

He also has no business being over the draft at all.  When I look back, I think the good draft picks they've made were on players pretty much everyone knew were going to be good like Goedert and Sanders.  

If they lose a bunch of games and are looking like the season is over, watch for a fire sale before the trade deadline.

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He moved the issue down the road because they felt they were in a good SB window. Had they have backed it up with another and one good play off run then fine he may have gotten away with it. But that didn't happen. Now they are in a really bad situation. 

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Regardless of what happens, at least we came out of this era with a long overdue Lombardi!!  I’m ready to move on from Howie and bringing in someone who has a real eye for talent to begin a rebuild.  It makes it much easier to feel OK with the "take a step backward to take two steps forward” approach knowing we did win it all just a couple years ago.  I just don’t want to replicate the Phils that hung on to aging, overpriced talent far too long mistakenly thinking their window was still open (anyone thinking ours is, that we are legitimate championship contenders, that we’d be able to go toe-to-toe with the likes of Seattle (I have them as my next Super Bowl champs), Baltimore (I have them as the team that loses to Seattle in the next Super Bowl), KC, NO, GB, etc. are delusional.  I pray we do not drag this out too long.  I’m OK with stinking for a couple years to make the changes needed.  LII makes that pill easier to swallow.

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There are no decent FA QBs in 2021, but 2022? After we somehow dump Wentz' contract?

I wouldn't mind a Cam Newton-type of QB. Someone who is good and experienced, but unhappy in their current scenario, looking for new life. 

I'm having serious regrets about moving on from Foles.

 

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5 minutes ago, time2rock said:

Regardless of what happens, at least we came out of this era with a long overdue Lombardi!!  I’m ready to move on from Howie and bringing in someone who has a real eye for talent to begin a rebuild.  It makes it much easier to feel OK with the "take a step backward to take two steps forward” approach knowing we did win it all just a couple years ago.  I just don’t want to replicate the Phils that hung on to aging, overpriced talent far too long mistakenly thinking their window was still open (anyone thinking ours is, that we are legitimate championship contenders, that we’d be able to go toe-to-toe with the likes of Seattle (I have them as my next Super Bowl champs), Baltimore (I have them as the team that loses to Seattle in the next Super Bowl), KC, NO, GB, etc. are delusional.  I pray we do not drag this out too long.  I’m OK with stinking for a couple years to make the changes needed.  LII makes that pill easier to swallow.

Well said. I feel a whole lot less freaked out with a Lombardi in the trophy case. 

We might've taken Seattle last year but they have re-tooled that offense and look deadly so far. No chance in heck we keep up with them now.

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10 minutes ago, Madriver said:

There are no decent FA QBs in 2021, but 2022? After we somehow dump Wentz' contract?

I wouldn't mind a Cam Newton-type of QB. Someone who is good and experienced, but unhappy in their current scenario, looking for new life. 

I'm having serious regrets about moving on from Foles.

 

Someone said the other day that Foles is like Fitzpatrick:  sometimes you get greatness, sometimes mediocrity and sometimes bad.  Foles hasn't played a single full season in his career.  He was widely criticized in 2014 when he struggled and then got injured again.  People called his 2013 success a fluke (like people are now doing with Wentz' 2017 season).  Foles had chances in KC then retired, then after his success here got beat out by Minshew and can't beat Trubinsky in Chicago.  Foles is a journeyman backup who played excellent football on a team that rallied around him and a lot of things were going right in that playoff run.  The offensive coaches that since left, the veterans who gave it their all for one last push, the underdog mentality...that all went away.  Foles played some downright bad games in 2018 when he took over and was ok in the playoffs.  We love him forever for what he did, but he was not the full-time answer at QB.

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7 hours ago, time2rock said:

His time has come, he has made a complete mess out of this roster and hitched our wagon to what he hoped would be a star QB but is nothing more than average.  It's just unfortunate that Lurie will likely continue to give him the benefit of the doubt because of the SB year (at least for a few more years ... I'd think we'd have to have a string of really bad seasons, like 3 or 4 win seasons before Lurie would consider a change).   

Agreed. His drafts have been horrendous and his contract decisions (who to give big money to and who to let walk) seem to be more misses than hits. 

11 minutes ago, NOTW said:

Someone said the other day that Foles is like Fitzpatrick:  sometimes you get greatness, sometimes mediocrity and sometimes bad.  Foles hasn't played a single full season in his career.  He was widely criticized in 2014 when he struggled and then got injured again.  People called his 2013 success a fluke (like people are now doing with Wentz' 2017 season).  Foles had chances in KC then retired, then after his success here got beat out by Minshew and can't beat Trubinsky in Chicago.  Foles is a journeyman backup who played excellent football on a team that rallied around him and a lot of things were going right in that playoff run.  The offensive coaches that since left, the veterans who gave it their all for one last push, the underdog mentality...that all went away.  Foles played some downright bad games in 2018 when he took over and was ok in the playoffs.  We love him forever for what he did, but he was not the full-time answer at QB.

I actually compared Wentz to Fitzpatrick. 

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8 hours ago, Traveler Vic said:

You got to pay the piper. Howie has to Go.

Howie does have to go no doubt.

But are we reaching the point where Doug / Carson have to go also? Does this whole franchise need rebuilding?

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12 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

He moved the issue down the road because they felt they were in a good SB window. Had they have backed it up with another and one good play off run then fine he may have gotten away with it. But that didn't happen. Now they are in a really bad situation. 

That Brandon Brooks injury vs the Saints during that Playoff game was the difference, otherwise Eagles would have repeated the Superbowl victory.....

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16 minutes ago, Jeep_man said:

That Brandon Brooks injury vs the Saints during that Playoff game was the difference, otherwise Eagles would have repeated the Superbowl victory.....

Maybe they would have. We don't know that for sure. Just like we don't know what happens if Jeffrey makes that catch. Just like we don't know what would have happened in 2017 if Wentz would have stayed healthy. We can make assumptions, we can make best guesses but we don't actually know.

Look this team had a really good run. 3 successive years in the play offs. Potentially 1 dropped pass or 1 injury away from returning to the NFC Championship game. And who knows what would have happened last year if Wentz wouldn't have suffered an ugly hit to the head. But ultimately this time, this moment was always coming. Kicking the cap can down the road, having an ageing roster with a GM who can't draft very well. It's time to rebuild and potentially do so at all levels.

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