September 26Sep 26 Author Rams game. There was a lot of big plays, most which went against us but the biggest ones went for us.Braden Mann punted four times for the Eagles. He averaged about 55.3 yards and 4.49 hangtime. Three were at 4.5 seconds or greater. One was hit outside the numbers. Ethan Evans only punted once for the Rams. He "averaged" about 36.0 yards and 4.97 hangtime. Your mileage may vary. It was hit outside the numbers. The better statistical day goes to Mann, putting his mark at 2-1 on the season.Through three games, Mann is averaging 53.3 yards and 4.75 hangtime with 75% at 4.5 seconds or greater and 58% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging 49.8 yards and 4.84 hangtime with 83% at 4.5 or more and 50% hit outside the numbers. I would say that the Eagles have had the better of it so far in terms of the punting game.The snap to foot times on punts for the Eagles were around 2.05. The snap to punter times seemed to be in the low 0.8s but those are extremely difficult to time. I do what I can. It looked like the Rams were at about 2.0 seconds on their one punt.Jake Elliott kicked off five times. He averaged about 57.8 yards, and the average opposing starting spot was the 28.8. Joshua Karty had an amazing game kicking off. He had seven kickoffs which averaged about 55.1 yards (to around the ten yard line, but that includes the kickoff at the end of the first half that was intentionally bombed into the endzone for a touchback). The Eagles average starting position was the 18.3. (I'll get into this later in this report.)On the season, Elliott is averaging 58.1 yards (irrelevant, really) with an average starting position of 26.6. Opposing kickers are now averaging 58.9 yards with an average starting position of 22.7. The Eagles are absolutely getting crushed here.The snap to foot times for the Eagles on placekicks was around 1.25 seconds. The Rams were definitely slower than that. (More on that later too.)Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating remains at 2326 since he attempted no field goals. That ranks tenth in the league and is +0.58 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is 2290. The rating of Eagles Opponent dropped to 2284, which ranks sixteenth. That's -0.09 from the mean.The Top Five kickers after three weeks are Boswell (2420, +2.08); Folk (2411, +1.93); Aubry (2400, +1.76); Dicker (2389, +1.58); and Myers (2356, +1.06). Boswell is approaching Justin Tucker's record for highest rating ever. The thing is, even if he passes him I think I'll be more impressed with Tucker because Tucker's standard deviation was a lot higher. He was significantly better than his peers. Boswell is almost in a position where he's "first among equals". The Bottom Five kickers after week three are Grupe (2224, -1.05); Ryland (2218, -1.14); Romo-PS (2215, -1.19); Szmyt (2207, -1.37); and Borregales (2202, -1.90)Other stuff:Joshua Karty's kickoffs were brilliant. He didn't even handle kickoff last year. Their punter did because he has a bigger leg and he was more capable of just blasting the ball into the endzone for touchbacks. But with the new rule this year which puts a greater emphasis on keeping the ball in play, Karty has taken over the role. Apparently he's been fantastic all year. His performance on Sunday shows why. It was amazing how he was able to not only hit line drives into the "landing zone" in front of the Eagles returners, but he was able to strike the ball in such away that they behaved erratically. The Eagles returners struggled to field the ball cleanly in just about every instance and the return game was almost nil. I suspect that every kicker in the league is going to be working on this art of their game. Elliott has shown some ability to hit the ball into that area with some skill, but he hasn't perfected the art of getting the ball to "knuckle" the way Karty has. It was a disgusting performance by the Eagles return game but I'm going to simply chalk that up as the result of a fantastic performance by the Rams kicker. I think we'll start getting it right in the return game.Grant Calcaterra punt tackle.Calcattera and Trotter were both flagged for holding on a kickoff return which put the Eagles back to their own nine yard line. Ugh.Trotter made a tackle on a punt.Jahan Dotson had another fair catch on a punt. It seems like that's all he's done this year.Trotter made a tackle on a kickoff.This was a game with tons of "hidden yardage" as a result of those amazing Rams kickoffs. I would say the the Eagles "lost" about sixty yards of field position throughout the course of the game. That is a significant amount of yardage. I would say that a disparity like that would generally lead to about three points on the scoreboard. That's an approximation anyway. Fortunately it didn't end up costing them.Jalen Carter blocked the Rams fifth field goal and Jordan Davis blocked the potential game-winner on the final play of the game (and returned it for a touchdown as the crowd -- me included -- went nuts.) In both instances they got tremendous push (probably more so on the final kick) and got their arms up. What I found most interesting about those two blocks is that the Rams were actually significantly quicker in their process than they had been on their kicks throughout the game. Karty looked kinda leisurely on some of his earlier kicks. His first PAT was about 1.45 seconds and there were two other kicks over 1.40 seconds. The others were in the 1.35 to 1.40 range. Yet on the kick that Carter blocked, Karty struck the ball at about 1.24 seconds after it was snapped. (The holder did a good job fielding a snap that wasn't exactly perfect). And on the final kick, the time was around 1.31 seconds. My hypothesis is that the Rams were so concerned about blocks, that they hurried it up and that may have led to a lower trajectory than normal. That doesn't mean that Carter and Davis weren't vital to what happened.I've never been as excited at the conclusion of an Eagles regular season victory as I was on Sunday. I screamed repeatedly for about three straight minutes. It was glorious.
September 27Sep 27 9 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:Jalen Carter blocked the Rams fifth field goal and Jordan Davis blocked the potential game-winner on the final play of the game (and returned it for a touchdown as the crowd -- me included -- went nuts.) In both instances they got tremendous push (probably more so on the final kick) and got their arms up. Franklin, I think you will find this assessment of the Eagles Field Goal blocking very interesting. I'd love to hear your thoughts after you watch it.9 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:What I found most interesting about those two blocks is that the Rams were actually significantly quicker in their process than they had been on their kicks throughout the game. Karty looked kinda leisurely on some of his earlier kicks. His first PAT was about 1.45 seconds and there were two other kicks over 1.40 seconds. The others were in the 1.35 to 1.40 range. Yet on the kick that Carter blocked, Karty struck the ball at about 1.24 seconds after it was snapped. (The holder did a good job fielding a snap that wasn't exactly perfect). And on the final kick, the time was around 1.31 seconds. My hypothesis is that the Rams were so concerned about blocks, that they hurried it up and that may have led to a lower trajectory than normal. That doesn't mean that Carter and Davis weren't vital to what happened.
September 27Sep 27 9 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:Braden Mann punted four times for the Eagles. He averaged about 55.3 yards and 4.49 hangtime. Three were at 4.5 seconds or greater. One was hit outside the numbers. Ethan Evans only punted once for the Rams. He "averaged" about 36.0 yards and 4.97 hangtime. Your mileage may vary. It was hit outside the numbers. The better statistical day goes to Mann, putting his mark at 2-1 on the season.Through three games, Mann is averaging 53.3 yards and 4.75 hangtime with 75% at 4.5 seconds or greater and 58% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging 49.8 yards and 4.84 hangtime with 83% at 4.5 or more and 50% hit outside the numbers. I would say that the Eagles have had the better of it so far in terms of the punting game.In another thread there has been a lot of criticism of the Eagles Punt Coverage efforts. I made the point that the increased distance on a punter's punts does come with some risk ... specifically, the possibility that the returner has added time (and distance from the gunners) to set up his return. Any thoughts about that? With the above said, how much weight do you place on a punter's Net Punt average?
September 27Sep 27 Author 55 minutes ago, mattwill said:Franklin, I think you will find this assessment of the Eagles Field Goal blocking very interesting. I'd love to hear your thoughts after you watch it.Well, yes I agree with him.
September 27Sep 27 Author 52 minutes ago, mattwill said:In another thread there has been a lot of criticism of the Eagles Punt Coverage efforts. I made the point that the increased distance on a punter's punts does come with some risk ... specifically, the possibility that the returner has added time (and distance from the gunners) to set up his return. Any thoughts about that?With the above said, how much weight do you place on a punter's Net Punt average?Yes, I would agree that longer kicks can yield bigger returns because the return man in such cases is able to build up some speed before he encounters tacklers coming his way.And yes, net punting average is a solid statistic.
October 4Oct 4 Author Bucs game. A Tale of Two Halves.Braden Mann punted seven times for the Eagles. He averaged about 49.9 yards and 4.28 hangtime. Only three had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Five were hit outside the numbers, several very close to the sidelines (which is a good thing.) Riley Dixon had three measurable punts. The fourth was blocked. His three punts averaged about 37.0 yards and 4.36 hangtime with one reaching the 4.5 mark and one hit outside the numbers. The better statistical game clearly goes to Mann, putting his mark at 3-1-0 on the season.Through four games, Mann is averaging about 52.1 yards and 4.57 hangtime with 63% at 4.5 seconds or more and 63% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging 45.6 yards and 4.68 hangtime with 67% at 4.5 seconds and 44% hit outside the numbers. Solid advantage for the Eagles.The snap to foot times on punts for the Eagles were maybe a tad slower than usual. A couple around 2.1 and one closer to 2.2. The others around 2.05. The Bucs were uncommonly slow, which definitely impacted the block. They were around 2.15, roughly, on the day. That ain't good. You might get kicks blocked when you're putting up numbers like that.Jake Elliott kicked off six times. He averaged about 53.9 yards (irrelevant, really) with an average subsequent starting field position of 21.7. Chase McLaughlin kicked off five times and averaged 62.4 yards with an average starting position of 32.2. That's about TEN YARDS per kickoff in terms of field position for the Eagles. That is massive. On the season, Elliott is averaging 56.9 yards with an average start of 25.1. Opponents are averaging 59.8 and 25.2. So virtually identical average starting position despite the debacle against the Rams.The Eagles place kick times were mostly between 1.25 and 1.30 with the final one closer to 1.35. The Bucs were generally in the 1.35 range. The Eagles almost always are quicker than their opponents.Elliott made his only field goal attempt, from a distance with an expected value (as calculated at the turn of the century -- I understand that kickers are better nowadays) of about 82%. On the season, he's now 4-of-4 from distances with an EV of 2.25. This means he's +1.76 which means he's earned the Eagles about 5.28 points above expectation. Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2328, which ranks ninth in the league and is +0.63 STD above the mean. The league average is at 2289. The rating of Eagles Opponents improved dramatically to 2294, which would rank sixteenth. That's +0.09. STD above the mean.The Top Five Kickers after four weeks were Folk (2418, +2.07); Boswell (2405, +1.86); Aubry (2400, +1.78); Dicker (2391, +1.64); and McLaughlin (2360, +1.11). The Bottom Five kickers are Romo (2220, -1.10); Fitzgerald (2217, -1.15); McAtameny-PS (2205, -1.34); Borregales (2202, -1.39); and Szmyt (2198, -1.45).Other stuff:Cameron Latu blocked the first punt of the game and Sydney Brown got a charity hop for an easy scoop and score touchdown. Great play all around but the Bucs played their part too. For one thing, the snap drifted considerably to the right and the snap to foot time came in at around 2.17 seconds. That's pretty damn slow and presumably to the right of where they had been wanting to strike the ball. Everything came together for the Eagles on this play. I'd also like to take a moment to note that I've been quietly singing the special teams praises of Latu for about a month now, so I'm feeling somewhat vindicated. It feels good to be right.Uche make a tackle on a kickoff.Tank Bigsby showed some juice and some finishing aggressive on a couple of his kickoff returns. He has power on contact that's impressive.Nickerson was flagged for holding on a shanked Buccaneers punt. Ugh.OF COURSE that Bucs kicker was going to make that 65 yarder, which turned out to be the longest outdoor field goal in NFL history. I had no doubt he was going to drill that thing. On a HOT day like that, the ball is going to fly. Plus, that stadium is a house of horrors for us. So I just knew it was going to be good. It was of course quite gross.I was really ticked off on the Eagles first punt of the second half. With a running clock and a 24-6 lead, the Eagles snapped the ball with seventeen seconds left on the play clock. My God, could you at least milk some time (FOR FREE) when you're ahead by so much? Why the damn hurry?There was brutal coverage on one great Mann punt which pinned the Bucs returner near the sideline. With almost nowhere to go, he returned the ball about 45 yards into Eagles territory. It looked to me like the main culprit was Will Shipley. He just completely whiffed and overran the play. And Latu blew a tackle there too. And I'm not certain but I have a hunch that our longsnapper was injured on this play too. Brutal, brutal play.Charley Hughlett had a couple of somewhat high snaps on punts in the second half. I'm wondering if he was already hurt and was just powering through.Shipley allowed a kickoff to hit the ground at the one yard line. I have no problem with this decision. If it goes into the endzone, the Eagles are getting the ball at the 35. Instead, the ball took a weird bounce and stayed in the field of play. Fortunately Bigsby picked it up and got the ball all the way out to the 23.For several days, I've been arguing that there should have been a second left on the clock after the Eagles intentional safety. The ball was snapped with six seconds left and I claimed that the play took about 5.8 seconds. I'm going to change my tune. I now think that while Mann kinda headed out of the back of the endzone with a fraction of a second left on the clock, he really didn't hit out of bounds until a half second later. This makes me feel better. Incidentally I think the Bucs smelled out what was going to happen on that play and they had two outside rushers just making a bee-line at Mann hoping to tackle him in the field of play. But they couldn't get there in time.
October 6Oct 6 Other than the kick blocking units, our ST are a net negative. It's seriously time to get Covey into some games. Our returners are constantly making the wrong decisions. Kickoffs that will land in the endzone should never be returned. Every time we return those it results in a minus 10-15 net yards. Dotson had one nice punt return, but he's mostly Greg Ward out there signaling fair catch when there's ample room to cleanly field and then there's those decisions to run back to field a punt (fair catch) inside the 5 yard line. I mean ... these are basic things that don't seem to be getting taught. We are losing the field position battle because of coverage and return teams. All of our games so far have been 1 score margins, so this should be a huge concern.
October 9Oct 9 Author Okay, let's do this Broncos game, as disgusting as it was.Braden Mann punted seven times. He averaged about 50.3 yards and 4.81 hangtime. Five had hangtimes of at least 4.5 seconds. Three were hit outside the numbers. Rookie Jeremy Crawshaw also punted seven times for the Broncos. He averaged about 44.4 yards and 4.28 hangtime with only one (the first one) having a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Four were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical day goes to Mann, putting his mark at 4-1-0 on the season.Through five games, Mann is averaging about 51.6 yards and 4.64 hangtime with 65% at 4.5 or more and 58% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging about 45.1 yards and 4.51 hangtime with 43% at 4.5 seconds or more and 50% hit outside the numbers. The Eagles are absolutely killing it this year in the punting game.The Eagles have a new longsnapper, Cal Adomitis. It's possible he'll be here all year. He's no rookie, as he's been with the Bengals for a few years. I'm not worried.The snap to foot times on punts for the Eagles were kinda/mostly around 2.05 to 2.10. The Broncos were about the same except for their last two in the first half. Those two, especially the latter one, were super quick "just don't get the thing blocked" type punts. Jake Elliott kicked off four times. He averaged 58.3 yards with an average starting spot of 24.3. Two of those kicks resulted in Broncos penalties. Wil Lutz kicked off five times for the Broncos. He averaged 63.0 yards with 28.0 starting spot. On the season, Elliott is averaging 57.1/25.0. Opposing kickers are averaging 59.8/25.2.Snap to foot times on place kicks were normal for the Eagles. Roughly 1.25. The Broncos were around 1.3 to 1.35 on their three kicks.Elliott made his only field goal attempt from a distance with about a 91% expectancy. On the season, he's 5-of-5 from distances with an expected value of about 3.15. This means he's +1.85 on the year, meaning he's earned the Eagles about 5.55 points over expected value. That's really, really good for five kicks. His Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2329, which puts him ninth in the league. He's at 0.62 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is 2290. The rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2305, which would rank fifteenth if he were a single real player. That is 0.24 +STD.The Top Five kickers through five weeks are Folk (2420, +2.07); Boswell (2405, +1.83); Aubry (2401, +1.76); Dicker (2397, +1.70); and McLaughlin (2364, +1.18). The Bottom Five kickers are Romo (2220, -1.10); Grupe (2217, -1.15); Borregales (2214, -1.20); McAtamney-PS (2205, -1.34); and Szmyt (2200, -1.42).Other stuff:Kickoff tackle by Latu.The new snapper Adomitis looked to be around 0.75 on his punt snaps. Totally fine.Tank Bigsby made an exceptionally poor decision on the Broncos first kickoff. He fielded the ball at the goal line when it was going into the endzone for a touchback which would have put the ball at the thirty-five yard line. He kinda jumped in front of Will Shipley to field the ball, which put Shipley BEHIND him as he began to run upfield. Without that extra blocker (Shipley), the return was doomed from the start and he only managed to get to the seventeen. Bad, bad play.Jahan Dotson sometimes seems a bit too eager to field catch punts. There was one play where he seemed to have some room to make a play -- okay, maybe he wouldn't have gotten a lot but he probably could have made a positive play -- but simply fair caught it.Bigsby made a fine play in punt coverage when he grabbed the returner's shirt and wouldn't let him free himself. Good tackle.I have to question Dotson's decision to fair catch the ball on the Broncos punt with seconds left in the half. The only things that can happen when doing that are bad. Even though it may seem like the easy play, there is always the risk of a fumble/turnover/free points. Unless the ball dies at the half yard line and you're forced to run a play from there (and in the Eagles case, a tush push would solve things), nothing bad is going to happen by letting the punt bounce. I guess this is one of my pet peeves in the punting game. I've always been bothered by this very thing.Dotson had a pretty good return (about sixteen yards) on Denver's final punt.Excellent openfield tackle by Latu.Shipley returned a kickoff to the 43.On the final Broncos kickoff with 1:11 left in the game, Bigsby fielded the ball at the goal line. It could be argued that he should have let it go into the endzone for a touchback. It could also be argued that, hey, you need to try to make a big play at that point. It's hard to say what was the right call there. I really don't know.
October 10Oct 10 I think it's time to consider Covey. This team could use a spark from somewhere. He'd be an improvement for sure on punt returns and I've got to believe he can at least field a kickoff. I'm done with Bigsby as KR and Dillon is not one. When the offense is struggling, the last thing we need is to start drives pinned inside our 10 yard line.
October 17Oct 17 Author Giants debacle.Braden Mann punted four times. He averaged about 52.5 yards and 4.24 hangtime. Two reached the 4.5 second mark. All four were hit outside the numbers. Jamie Gillen punted four times for the Giants. He averaged about 41.8 yards and 4.15 hangtime. None reached the 4.5 mark. Two were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical day goes to Mann by a fairly significant margin. He's now 5-1 on the season in his theoretical 1-on-1 matchup with the opposing punter.On the season, Mann is averaging 51.7 yards and 4.58 hangtime with 63% reaching the 4.5 second mark and 63% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging about 44.4 yards and 4.43 hangtime with 35% at the 4.5 mark and 50% hit outside the numbers. That's a pretty overwhelming edge for the Eagles. About seven more yards of distance in the air per punt with greater hangtime and more efficiency in terms of pinning the opposing team to the sideline. The snap to foot times on punts were normal. Around 2.05 for the Eagles. The Giants were about the same, except for their first punt which was actually quicker.Jake Elliott kicked off four times. He averaged 58.3 yards with an average starting spot of 32.8. That's not good. (Not Elliott's fault really, of course.) Gillen kicked off six times. He averaged 57.8 yards with average starting spot of 22.8. That's with one drive starting at the 40 because the ball was kicked short of the stupid landing zone. But the Eagles were inept on a couple of returns bringing the average down considerably. On the season, Elliott is averaging 57.3/26.1. Opposing kickers are averaging 59.8/25.2. We gotta do better here.The snap to foot times on place kicks were around 1.30 (slightly faster, I'd say, on the last one) for the the Eagles. The Giants were closer to 1.35.Elliott made his only field goal attempt from a distance with an expectancy of about 77%. On the season, he's now 6-of-6 from distances with an expectancy of 3.92. This means that he's made 2.08 above expected value, which translates to 6.24 points. That's a remarkable number for only six kicks. His average attempt distance is 46.5. The league average is 41.4.Elliott's Elo Kicking rating improved to 2332, which is tied for tenth best in the league. That's 0.74 standard deviations above the mean. The league average rating is 2282. The rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2305, which would rank sixteenth (about average) with a STD of 0.34.The Top Five Kickers after six weeks are Folk (2425, +2.14); Aubry (2401, +1.78); Dicker (2401, +1.78); Boswell (2399, +1.75); and Prater (2349, +1.00). The Bottom Five (six in this case) kickers are Borregales (2215, -1.01); Szmyt (2215, -1.01); McAtamney-PS (2205, -1.16); Romo (2202, -1.21); Havrisik (2180, -1.54); and Moody-PS (2143, -2.09). Other stuff:Tank Bigsby and A.J. Dillon both had aggressive, powerful kickoff returns out to about the thirty but both also had very bad plays too.Sydney Brown overran the punt returner on one long Mann punt. He flew it out of control and whiffed allowing a decent return down the sideline. I'm sure the coaches are beginning to wonder if this dude is ever going to play with discipline. And after that initial comment was made, he added to the boneheadedness with a personal foul on another punt. I've been rooting for this guy for a long time and I like his aggressiveness but I'm not sure he's ever going to really put it together.In the preseason, Jake Elliott demonstrated a proficiency in lifting his kickoffs short of the goal line, to about the one or two yard line. It's a decent strategy given the new touchback rules this year. Yet for some reason the Eagles aren't doing that anymore. It feels like every kickoff of his is gift-wrapped to the opposing team at about the eight yard line. That position on the field can be okay if you're making the returner have to scramble for the ball somehow, but that's not the case. The Eagles are simply allowing the returner to camp under the ball and begin his return about five yards further upfield than he needs to be. I'm baffled. (Not saying it's Jake's fault as I'm sure he's under instructions.)Jeremiah Trotter made a firm tackle on a kickoff. Good play.On the Giants first punt, they rolled the blocking to the left and the punter shifted left prior to striking the ball. I think they were highly suspicious of the Eagles inside rush.Bigsby's boneheaded kickoff came when he muffed a ball at about the three yard line and went into the endzone to field it (smart), only to actually run it out (not smart) and only made it to the seven yard line. Dude, that's a touchback if you just down it. Not good. Not good at all. His panic pretty much killed any chance for a last minute drive for the Eagles before the half.Joshua Uche with a tackle on a kickoff.Dillon's boneheaded kickoff came when he muffed a kickoff at the four yard line and the ball calmly rolled out of bounds at the five. The game was getting out of hand at this point and this sort of encapsulated what this night was going to be. Just a ish-show all around. (By the way, I'm not opposed to Dillon as a return man. The way the kickoffs are being handled these days, a bigger, more powerful returner is a decent strategy. Just don't fumble the f'in ball.)Watch the Vikings kicker nail a 65-yarder this week. I'm smelling it already.
October 25Oct 25 Author Vikings game stuff. Good and bad.Braden Mann punted three times for an average of 48.0 yards and 4.74 hangtime. Two were over 4.5 seconds. Two were hit outside the numbers. Ryan Wright punted only once for the Vikings. He "averaged" about 34.0 yards and 3.74 hangtime. His single punt was hit outside the numbers and did not reach 4.5 seconds. The better statistical game goes to Mann, putting his mark at 6-1 on the season.On the season Mann is averaging 51.4 yards and 4.60 hangtime with 64% reaching 4.5 seconds and 64% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging 43.9 yards and 4.40 hangtime with 33% at 4.5 seconds and 52% hit outside the numbers. Overwhelming advantage (more than seven yards further with better hangtime) for the Eagles.The snap to foot times on field goals for the Eagles was a little slower than usual. Maybe 2.10 on average. The Vikings looked to be a little quicker on theirs. Around 2.07.Jake Elliott kicked off five times for the Eagles and averaged 50.6 yards with an average starting spot of 32.4. Reichard kicked off seven times for the Vikings with an average of 59.1 yards and 29.1. The Vikings definitely won this aspect of the hidden yardage game. More than three yards better on twelve kicks is about forty yards of free field position. On the season, Elliott is averaging 56.2 yards and 27.0. Opposing kickers are averaging 59.8 and 25.2 yards. We're about two yards worse here. Too many stupid penalties have played a part here. That, plus that awful game against the Rams when they couldn't field his tricky kicks.The snap to foot times on placekicks for the Eagles was generally around 1.25 seconds. The Vikings were closer to 1.30 on theirs with one up around 1.40. Definitely quicker for the Eagles.Elliott missed his only field goal attempt from a distance with an expected value of about 0.77. On the season, he's now 6-of-7 from distances with an expected value of 4.69. This means he's +1.31, which equates to 3.93 points above expected. His average attempt distance is 45.9 yards (the league average is around 41 yards). Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating dropped to 2311, which ranks thirteenth in the league. That's 0.40 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is 2284. The rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2322, which would rank tied for tenth in the league. That's 0.56 STD above the mean.The Top Five Kickers through seven weeks are Folk (2427, +2.14); Aubry (2410, +1.88); Dicker (2402, +1.76); Boswell (2401, +1.75); and McLaughlin (2353, +1.03). The Bottom Five kickers are Karty/Szymt (2217, -1.01); Romo (2206, -1.18); McAtamney (2205, -1.19); Havrisik (2200, -1.27); and Moody-PS (2155, -1.94).Other stuff:The local Fox station didn't show the opening kickoff because of a political ad. It was disgusting.I had no doubts that the Vikings would make their VERY long field goal attempt because opposing kickers simply do not miss kicks of that nature against the Eagles. Since 2010, they have made 14-of-18 from 56+ yards. A kick of 55-yards is roughly the 50% point. According to the math, the odds of a 50% event happening fourteen (or more) times out of eighteen attempts is about 1.5%. The Eagles are definitely getting some really bad luck in this realm.Shipley had a decent kickoff return.The new longsnapper Cal Adomitis had a couple of snaps that were a little high. This happened more than once and is something to keep an eye on in the future. It's not problematic or anything but it's just something to note.Xavier Gipson was active for the first time and handled kickoff duties several times. He did well. He looked very fast and also showed quick feet. I think he could be dangerous for us in the future if he's able to hold onto a roster spot. But that could be difficult with some activations looming in the future. We'll see. But so far so good for him.Unfortunately the Eagles had two kick returns negated because of stupid penalties. One on an unnamed player for lining up incorrectly and the other on Cameron Latu for an illegal combo block. Sirianni was incensed about the call.Eagles second half kickoffs did not go well. One Vikings return made it out to nearly midfield (I blame Shipley and Brown on that one) and on another kick Elliott hit it short of the landing zone, putting the ball on the forty. Yeah, kickoffs in the second half did not go well for the Eagles at all. I'm not smart enough to tell if it was a reason for the missed field goal, but I think I can say that the snap to foot time on that Eagles kick was the quickest of the entire game. It's possible that Elliott's haste to the ball somehow prompted the wide right trajectory. But I can't say that for sure.
November 5Nov 5 Author Giants game...the good one. I've had this on my desk for almost a week now but we were on a bye week. May as well get to it now.Braden Mann only punted once. It went 56 yards with a 4.50 hangtime. Yes it was hit outside the numbers. Jamie Gillen punted for times for the Giants. He averaged about 48.8 yards with 4.40 hangtime. Two reached the 4.5 mark and two were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical game goes to Mann, putting his mark at a very impressive 7-1 on the season. I'm talking about his theoretical 1-on-1 matchup with the opposing punter.On the season, Mann is averaging 51.5 yards and 4.60 hangtime with 65% at 4.5 seconds and 65% hit outside the numbers on the field. Opposing punters are averaging 44.7 yards and 4.40 hangtime with only 36% at 4.5 seconds or more and 52% hit outside the numbers. Significant edge for the Eagles punting game. I've been tracking this stuff for almost forty years and this is easily the best season the Eagles have ever had. Historically the Eagles have been outpunted by the other team. Consistently.The snap to foot times on punts favored the Eagles. That's almost always the case. Around 2.0 for the Eagles. The Giants were more like 2.1. Roughly.Jake Elliott kicked off seven times. He averaged 66.1 yards (irrelevant because of the stupid landing zone nonsense) with an average resulting starting spot of 32.1. (Eagles kickoff coverage wasn't good.) Jamie Gillen kicked off four times, excluding an onside kick late in the game. He averaged about 61.0 yards (irrelevant) with an average starting position of 38.0. Yes, the Eagles return game was actually good in this one.On the season, Elliott is averaging 58.0/27.9. Opposing kickers are 59.9/27.1. Slight edge to the opponents.The snap to foot times on kicks was around 1.25 to 1.3 for the Eagles. The Giants looked to be a tad over 1.3 on theirs with one hard to discern.Elliott made 1-of-2 field goal attempts from distances with an expectation of about 1.21. On the season he's 7-of-9 from distances with an expectancy of about 5.9. This means he's +1.1 which equates to 3.3 points over expected value. Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating dropped to 2300, which ranks fifteenth in the league. That's 0.16 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is 2290. The rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2328, which would rank tenth in the league. That's 0.60 STD above the mean. Elliott's average attempt distance is 45.9, which is about five yards longer than the league average. The Top Five Kickers after Week 8 (this doesn't include data from the bye week) were Folk (2429, +2.19); Boswell (2414, +1.95); Aubry (2410, +1.89); Dicker (2392, +1.61); and McLaughlin (2372, +1.29). The Bottom Five Kickers were Borregales (2228, -0.97); Karty (2217, -1.14); Romo (2213, -1.21); Havrisik (2200, -1.41); and Szmyt (2200, -1.41). Other stuff:Will Shipley smartly fielded the opening kickoff a yard deep in the endzone and took a knee, putting the ball at the 35. The Eagles were initially flagged for Smael Mondon lining up incorrectly but after Sirianni's histrionics the officials reversed themselves.Allegedly there was a phantom whistle on Elliott's missed 58 yard field goal which we were told should have resulted in a no-play and a do-over. The officials didn't do anything about it. You can kind of see the Eagles argument as while the ball is in the air, the official on the Eagles sideline came running in to the middle of the field. That's not something they normally do, so it was obvious that something had happened. Oh well.Shipley took a kickoff out to the 47 yard line. It should have been at the 48 if it had been marked correctly.Shipley also returned a kickoff to the 42.The Eagles made a smart decision with only 21 seconds left in the first half. Instead of kicking the ball into the landing zone and enabling a potential return, Elliott drilled it to the back of the endzone for a touchback. The Giants subsequently took a knee and went into the half.Just like in their game from a couple weeks earlier, the Giants ran a roll-to-the-left punt.Xavier Gipson had a pretty decent return on a punt. He's been okay for us. I'm still not sure I trust him though, as he has a reputation for being a fumbler.Sydney Brown foolishly tried to leap over a blocker on a Giants kick return and allowed a big gap. Really bizarre and reckless.The Giants tried the rare dropkick onside kick. The ball happily bounced nicely to Dallas Goedert for the easy recovery.
November 5Nov 5 One thing to watch this week is the personnel on special teams. We have Carter II, Alexander, Phillips, BG, Bennett, and potentially N. Smith all probably being activated. There's a good chance we'll see some ST players affected by these decisions.
November 14Nov 14 Author Packers game. There wasn't all that much.Braden Mann had five official punts but he actually punted six times with one of the punts being negated by penalty. Since it was still an actual live play (if for example the Packers had returned it for a touchdown it would have counted), I include it in the stats. Mann's six punts averaged 44.8 yards and 4.17 hangtime. Only two had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Three were hit outside the numbers. Daniel Whelan punted five times for the Packers. He averaged 46.8 yards and 4.15 hangtime. Only one had a 4.5 second or more hangtime. Four were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical game goes to Whelan, albeit slightly. This puts Mann's mark at 7-2 on the season. On the season Mann is averaging 50.5 yards and 4.53 hangtime with 60% at 4.5 or more and 63% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging about 45.0 yards and 4.36 hangtime with only 33% at 4.5 or more and 57% hit outside the numbers. Solid advantage for the Eagles.Snap to foot times on punts were unremarkable. Around 2.0 for both teams, although one Packers punt was notably slower.Jake Elliott kicked off three times. He averaged 58.3 yards with a subsequent average field position of 30.3. Brandon McManus only kicked off twice for Green Bay. He averaged 62.0 yards and 28.5. On the season, Elliott is averaging 58.0/28.1. Opposing kickers are averaging 60.0/27.2. In effect the Eagles are "losing" about a yard per kickoff. In effect that's about eight or ten yards of field position per game. It's not insurmountable but it's not necessarily insignificant either.Snap to foot times on kicks...I simply couldn't tell.Elliott made his only field goal attempt from a distance with about 82% expectancy. On the season he's 8-of-10 from distances with an expectancy of 6.71. This means he's +1.29, which equates to +3.87 points. His average attempt distance is 45.9 yards, which is extremely long. The average is around 41 yards. So hitting 80% from plus-distance is a definite positive. Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2303, which ranks twelfth in the league. That's +0.28 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is 2286. The rating of Eagles Opponents dropped to 2321, which would rank eleventh. That's +0.57 STD above the mean.After ten weeks the top five rated kickers are Folk (2430, +2.31); Aubry (2410, +1.99); Boswell (2407, +1.95); Dicker (2390, +1.67); and McLaughlin (2373, +1.40). The Bottom Five kickers are Fitzpatrick/Koo-PS (2222, -1.02); Szymt (2208, -1.25); Havrisik (2200, -1.38); Mevis-PS (2200, -1.38); and Karty (2197, -1.42).Other stuff:Xavier Gipson fielded a punt at the three and returned it out to the 21. Very nice return. He's looked better to me than I was expecting.Gipson had another good return darting through traffic.Kelee Ringo got called for a BS holding penalty on a punt. The ten yard penalty turned into a huge net negative because the Packers ended up with a pretty good return on the second one.Gipson showed me a lot on the play where the Packers batted a punt back into the field of play. He smartly picked the ball up at about the two yard line and made an attempt to gain positive yardage. He didn't. In fact he lost yardage. But there was nothing lost by giving it a shot. Even if he had fumbled, it would still have been Eagles ball at the spot of "first touching". Buck and Aikman did a horrific job on this play. They never explained anything, leading viewers to perhaps think that Gipson had done some reckless. He hadn't.It was ridiculous that the Packers were able to get a free "test" kick from 64-yards with five second left after the Eagles called a timeout. The referee is suppose to prevent that. He didn't. It was short by about two yards, which informed the Packers they needed to try another play to pick up an extra couple of yards. We were fortunate that that didn't work. And the final kick was simply mis-hit and missed by about forty yards. Frankly I thought it was silly of them to try that kick instead of a Hail Mary. The odds were probably worse on the kick. Plus, even if good it only forces overtime. A successful desperation pass would have won the game for the Packers. Thankfully it all worked out well for us.
9 hours ago9 hr Author Lions game in windy conditions.Braden Mann punted seven times with an average of 40.1 yards and 4.51 hangtime. Five of the seven had a hangtime of 4.5 or more. Five were hit outside the numbers. Jack Fox punted four times for Detroit. He averaged 39.8 yards and 4.06 hangtime with one at 4.5 or more and one hit outside the numbers. A comfortable "win" for Mann, putting his mark at 8-2 on the season.Through ten games, Mann is averaging 49.0 yards (not official NFL stats mind you, but actual distance from the line of scrimmage to where the ball landed...basically) and 4.53 hangtime with 62% at 4.5 and 64% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging about 44.1 yards and 4.32 hangtime with 32% at 4.5 and 53% hit outside the numbers. This is a VERY STRONG positive for the Eagles.Snap to foot times on punts once again favored the Eagles. They were consistently right around 2.0 seconds, maybe a tad slower but under 2.05. The Lions were closer to 2.2 on theirs which is uncommonly slow. Fox has a weird hesitation in his mechanics. It's just...weird. Presumably he only does this when he's not hurried.Jake Elliott kicked off five times with an average of 65.6 yards (irrelevant) and an average starting position of 29.0. Jake Bates kicked off only(!) three times for the Lions. He averaged 61.7 and 35.3. Definite advantage for the Eagles. On the season, Elliott is averaging 58.8/28.2. Opposing kickers are averaging 60.1/27.7. Slight advantage to the opposing team on kickoffs. We don't return the ball as well as we allow other teams to return the ball. (Although I have a feeling Gipson is going to break one soon.)The snap to foot times on kicks were about 1.30 for the Eagles (the first one seemed slower than that) and about 1.35 for the Lions.Elliott made all three of his field goal attempts in windy conditions. The expected value of his three attempts was 2.47. On the season, he's 11-of-13 from distances with an expectancy of 9.18. This means he's +1.82 which equates to +5.46 points. That's a lot of points on only thirteen kicks. Elliott's average attempt distance is a healthy 45.9 yards, about five yards further than the league average. His Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2311, which ranks twelfth in the league. That's +0.36 STD above the mean. The league average is 2288. The rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2328, which would be tied for tenth in the league. That's +0.63 STD above the mean.After eleven weeks, the top five rated kickers are Folk (2430, +2.24); Aubry (2412, +1.96); Boswell (2408, +1.89); Dicker (2395, +1.69); and McLaughlin (2374, +1.36). The bottom five kickers are Borregales (2218, -1.11); Szymt (2218, -1.11); Havrisik (2200, _1.39); Mevis (2200, -1.39); and Karty (2198, -1.42). The lowest two play for the Rams, by the way. I wouldn't be surprised if their kicking game winds up costing them something big in the long run.Other stuff:Cal Adomitis made a tackle on a punt. He's been more active in coverage than other longsnappers we've had over the years. In fact, that was a reputation he had coming out of college. That he was good in coverage. Of course there is kind of a risk involved in this as it could make a player more vulnerable to injury. And a longsnapper being injured during a game (you can always find one during the week) can have huge consequences. He was also involved in another tackle later.Cam Latu with a good tackle/hit on the Eagles first kickoff.Jeremiah Trotter was flagged for holding on the Lions first punt.Kelee Ringo solid tackle on a punt.Trotter was flagged for a fifteen yard facemask penalty on an Eagles punt. So he was responsible for TWENTY-FIVE yards of field position lost in the game. C'mon man!The Lions failed to convert a fake punt on a fourth and two. The Eagles sniffed it out the entire time and kept their starting defense on the field. Good job.Adomitis was slightly low (being very nitpicky here) on at least one placekick. I'm not especially concerned but I want it noted.Gipson made his first "bad" play for the Eagles on a punt in the fourth quarter. He was impacted by Sidney Brown's blocking of a Lions player and allowed the ball to hit the ground. Okay so far. But he then tried to field it (dangerous) and the ball eventually found its way out of bounds. It ended up working out okay but this could have been a game-changing play. Scary.On the Lions final punt with about five minutes left (and I still wonder why they punted rather than go for it on fourth down, as it felt like a surrender), the Eagles kept their defense on the fieldThe Lions missed a 48-yard PAT due to the wind. That was nice of them.
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