Special Teams blog

[mattwill]

The Special Teams were all quietly efficient yesterday.

With a 3 for 3 day, Elliott's Elo will climb once again from last week's 2342.  He started the day only 4 Elo points behind Nick Folk (in 5th) and only 2 points behind Younghoe Koo (in 6th), but Folk also was 3 for 3 for the day and Koo was 2 for 2, so Elliott will probably still be in 7th place in the rankings this week.

[mattwill]

Carlson goes 1 for 3 in the Monday night game.  His Elo rating will tumble.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

1 hour ago, mattwill said:

Carlson goes 1 for 3 in the Monday night game.  His Elo rating will tumble.

Correct. He fell all the way to seventh. Jake is now sixth.

[mattwill]

9 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Correct. He fell all the way to seventh. Jake is now sixth.

Looks like Tucker will once again be the #1 kicker.  Gano's 3 for 4 day should drop him at least 2 Elo points.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

14 minutes ago, mattwill said:

Looks like Tucker will once again be the #1 kicker.  Gano's 3 for 4 day should drop him at least 2 Elo points.

Yeah, Tucker regained his apparent rightful place at the top. I don’t recall the rest of the sequence. Don’t have it handy at the moment. Gano probably lost more points than you think. 

[mattwill]

3 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Yeah, Tucker regained his apparent rightful place at the top. I don’t recall the rest of the sequence. Don’t have it handy at the moment. Gano probably lost more points than you think. 

My guess was/is that Gano lost 12, dropping from 2372 to 2360.  

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

3 hours ago, mattwill said:

My guess was/is that Gano lost 12, dropping from 2372 to 2360.  

7, 2365. He also made 49 and 51 yard kicks.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Rams game. Damn, was I ever impressed with their punter/kickoff guy!

Braden Mann only punted once (and that's a good thing!) He hit it for 41 yards with 4.73 hangtime. Yes it was over 4.5 seconds and it was hit outside the numbers. Rookie seventh round pick Ethan Evans punted four times for the Rams. He averaged a whopping 54.3 yards with 4.59 hangtime. All four reached the 4.5 second mark. Three were hit outside the numbers. Obvious win for the Rams on this one. Mann's mark after three games is 1-2. Opponents after five games are 3-2.

On the season, Mann is averaging about 41.8 yards and 4.49 hangtime with 60% at 4.5 seconds and 40% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging about 49.2 yards and 4.37 hangtime with 45% at 4.5 seconds and 50% hit outside the numbers.

Snap to foot times on punts were all normal. Right around 2.0 seconds. Rams first punt was a little slower and I initially thought that maybe this guy is deliberate but that didn't prove to be the case.

Snap to foot times on placekicks were normal for the Eagles. Generally around 1.30 seconds. The Rams were a tad slower. More like 1.35. Brett Maher handled those kicks while Evans did the kickoffs.

Jake Elliott had four legit kickoffs. His final kickoff was a line drive that ended up going into the endzone for a touchdback. His four legit kickoffs averaged about 73.3 yards and 4.21 hangtime. That's more than eight yards deep in the endzone. Evans was unbelievable on kickoffs. He averaged about 79.7 yards (and yes it is tough to determine "how far" out of the endzone a kickoff actually lands) with 4.35 hangtime. Basically he was hitting them about five yards behind the end line. That's how strong a leg this rookie has. I don't wanna hear about the guy the Bills drafted last year anymore. THIS kid is the one who's special. How did he last til the seventh round? Why didn't we hear about him endlessly prior to the draft?

On the season, Elliott is averaging about 72.7 yards and 4.25 hangtime. Opponents are averaging 74.2 yards and 4.30 hangtime. That's about six yards further for opponents than they averaged a year ago.

Elliott made all three of his field goal attempts. They were pretty short ones. The expected value was about 2.79. On the season he's now 16-of-17 from distances with an expectancy of about 12.7. So he's plus 3.3 meaning he's earned the Eagles about ten points above standard. Yes, my "standards" are based on kickers from around 2000 through 2005. They've gotten better since then so most kickers are above standard now.

Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating improved slightly to 2344, which ranks sixth in the league. He's 1.09 standard deviations above the mean. His average attempt distance is 40.6 yards, which is still further than the league average. The Rating of Eagles Opponents remains at 2291, which is only slightly higher than the league average of 2290. That's 0.03 standard deviations above the mean. It would rank eighteenth in the league.

The Top Five kickers through five weeks are Tucker (2371, 1.62); Gano (2365, 1.50); Gay (2363, 1.460; Folk (2354, 1.29); and Koo (2347, 1.15). It's good to see Tucker back in front where it just feels right. The Bottom Five kickers are Grupe (2233, -1.15); Moody (2232, -1.15); A Carlson (2231, -1.17); Lutz (2221, -1.37); and Ryland (2172; -2.35).

Other stuff (wasn't much):

* Britain Covey had a couple of good punt returns. I believe he now ranks third in the entire league in average.

* On the Eagles first field goal attempt, Lovato's snap was a little low. I don't think his overall precision is as good as it used to be.

[mattwill]

Ethan Evans stayed in North Carolina for college, going from North Surry High School to Dividion II Wingate in 2019. He started all four years for the Bulldogs, increasing his gross average each season, going from 40.3 (56-2,257, 14 fair catches, 23 inside the 20-yard line, two touchbacks) to 42.2 (17-717, five fair catches, five inside the 20, one touchback in the shortened 2020 season) to 42.5 (42-1,785, nine fair catches, 25 inside the 20, five touchbacks in 2021). Evans' boots traveled an average of 45.7 yards his senior year (77-3,518, 19 fair catches, 39 inside the 20, 13 touchbacks), garnering him first-team Associated Press Division II All-American and All-South Athletic Conference honors. Evans had three kicks blocked during his career (one each in 2019, 2020 and 2022) and was the team's kickoff specialist all four seasons (127 touchbacks on 221 kicks, 57.5%). -- by Chad Reuter go NFL.com

[mattwill]

On 10/9/2023 at 10:41 PM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Correct. He fell all the way to seventh. Jake is now sixth.

What is D Carlson's Elo?

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

2 hours ago, mattwill said:

What is D Carlson's Elo?

2340.

[mattwill]

9 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

2340.

Thanks

[mattwill]

Tucker 4 for 4 on field goals in the 1st Half today.  Three short ones and one over 40.  None over 50.

Nick Folk 2 for 2 from 26 yards and 27 yards

[mattwill]

Franklin, with a new kicker like Brandon Aubrey of the Cowboys who has hit on all of his first 14 Field Goals.  Whare does his Elo start and how far has it risen?

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

1 hour ago, mattwill said:

Franklin, with a new kicker like Brandon Aubrey of the Cowboys who has hit on all of his first 14 Field Goals.  Whare does his Elo start and how far has it risen?

Yeah, that's tricky to rate brand new players. The optimum way to do it is to base everything off of their first "x" (roughly twenty to thirty, whichever you choose) attempts. But that can take up to a year so it's impractical to incorporate. So I arbitrarily start everyone at the standard of 2200 and see where they go. Usually they go up gradually. Sometimes (like Cade York last year) they simply hover around that mark for awhile and eventually fall off. New England's Chad Ryland has already had an inauspicious start and is under 2200.

The thing is, when I started doing those, ratings around 2150 were pretty damn common. Even kickers who were perceived as "good" had ratings like that. Hell, in eight of the twelve years David Akers kicked for the Eagles, his season ending rating was under 2200. But nowadays once you fall to 2170 or so, you're already on thin ice.

To answer your question, Aubrey is now at 2249, which is twenty-fifth in the league. His attempt distance is only 33 yards, the distance of an extra point. So you have to take his sixteen of sixteen with a large grain of salt. Seven of them were from between the 20 and 29 yard line. He's only had three attempts from forty and beyond.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Jets debacle.

Braden Mann had two official punts but actually put his foot to the ball three times. His first punt was re-kicked from an improved position because of a Jets penalty. His three punts averaged about 39.7 yards and a strong 5.05 hangtime. In fact all three of his punts were over 5.0 seconds (and of course 4.5 seconds). All three were hit outside the numbers. Thomas Morstead had a strong game for the Jets. He averaged 49.8 yards and 4.76 hangtime with three over 4.5 seconds and only one hit outside the numbers. The better statistical day goes to Morstead, putting the Eagles at 2-4 on the season and Mann at 1-3.

On the season, Mann is averaging about 41.0 yards and 4.70 hangtime. 75% have been over 4.5 seconds and 63% have been hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging about 49.2 yards and 4.43 hangtime with 50% at 4.5 seconds and 46% outside the numbers. I'd certainly like to see Mann improve on his distance numbers. His hangtime numbers have been mostly impressive however.

The snap to foot times on punts seemed to favor the Eagles. I had them around 1.95 seconds. The Jets were inconsistent with theirs. Quick on one and semi-slow on two of them.

Jake Elliott only kicked off three times. He averaged about 74.3 yards and 4.46 hangtime. Greg Zuerlein kicked off five times for the Jets. He averaged about 74.4 yards and 4.32 seconds. Both kickers were hitting the ball to the back of the endzone. On the season Elliott is averaging 72.9 yards and 4.27 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 74.3 yards and 4.30 hangtime.

I'm wondering if the league has done something very subtle with the actual football this year. Perhaps the way that they are being handled. Or warmed. Or rubbed down. Something. Because kickers have been absolutely crushing the ball on kickoffs in ways that don't compare to the data from recent years. It's about a five yard improvement across the board with much better hangtime. And I don't think it's because these are the "good weather" months. The numbers will surely go down over the next three months but I'm pretty sure they will remain much higher than averages have been. At the same time, field goal numbers have been really really good the first six weeks of the season. It's usually around 84-86%. This year it's closer to 88%. Something isn't adding up to me. It just feels like something has changed. Anyway...

The snap to foot times on placekicks were normal for the Eagles. Around 1.30 or so. The Jets were slower. A couple of theirs looked to be around 1.45 seconds. Elliott's missed field goal may have been rushed a bit. Possible explanation for the awful miss.

As we painfully know, Elliott missed his only field goal attempt from a distance with an expectancy of about 84%. On the season he's now 16-of-18 from distances with an expectancy of about 13.5. So he's plus 2.5, earning the Eagles about 7.5 points above expected value. His average attempt distance is 40.4 yards. His Elo Kicking Rating dropped to 2322, which ranks tenth in the league and is 0.63 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is 2289. Eagles Opponents are now at 2303, which would rank seventeenth. The Top Five kickers are Tucker (2376, +1.67); Gay (2371, +1.58); Gano (2369, +1.54); Folk (2357, +1.31); and Koo (2351, +1.19). The Bottom Five kickers are A. Carlson (2231, -1.12); Lutz (2221, -1.32); Grupe (2208, -1.57); Moody (2200, -1.72); and Ryland (2179, -2.13).

Other stuff (not much):

* Lovato's second PAT snap looked to be a little off the mark. Just slightly. Mann fielded it smoothly however.

* I'm a little confused about the rule on this play. On the opening kickoff of the second half by the Jets, the ball landed out of bounds about six yards deep in the endzone. It obviously crossed over the goal line "in fair territory" but doesn't it have to actually land in bounds for it to be a clean kickoff? Shouldn't that have been a penalty for OOB? Perhaps the official standing there simply saw the ball fly over his head and called it a touchback without verifying that it landed in the endzone? Looking at him, it certainly doesn't look like he actually looked behind him. Now maybe I'm wrong and it doesn't matter. But I don't know.

* Braden Mann was roughed on his first punt and it was called running into the kicker. I'm not so sure the Jets didn't get away with something there. Just about every break in the game went their way, so it wouldn't surprise me if that should have been a fifteen yarder with an attached first down.

* I'm generally supportive of fielding punts closer to the goal line than most people seem to be. But I'm wondering if it was really the right call for Britain Covey to fair catch that one punt at the six yard line. Tough call. Close call.

* Covey didn't have a lot of room to return punts.

* Kelee Ringo was flagged for running into the punt returner. It was unfortunate but obvious. On a side note, I was recently asked what Ringo's role is and I noted that "he's the drummer".

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Dolphins game. Kinda weird.

Once again Braden Mann had limited opportunities, which is a good thing since it normally means the offense is moving the ball. He punted once for an "average" of 57.0 yards and 4.64 seconds hangtime. It was not hit outside the numbers. Jake Bailey punted three times for the Dolphins. He averaged about 44.3 yards and 4.71 seconds. Two were at or above 4.5 seconds and all three were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical day goes to Mann, putting his mark at 2-3 on the year and Eagles Opponents at 4-3 overall. (Siposs was 1-1 in his two games.)

On the season, Mann is averaging about 42.8 yards and 4.69 hangtime with 78% at 4.5 seconds and 56% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging about 48.7 yards and 4.46 hangtime with 52% at 4.5 seconds and 52% hit outside the numbers. Incidentally the Eagles as a team (Siposs had nine punts and Mann has had nine punts) are averaging 43.6 yards and 4.54 seconds.

None of the snap to foot times on punts were especially notable. They were all over two seconds.

Kickoffs for the game were nowhere near as good as they had been the first six weeks. I assume the colder weather and the wind were contributing factors. Jake Elliott kicked off six times and averaged about 65.3 yards and only 3.93 seconds. Jason Sanders kicked off four times but his opening kick was a mis-hit. His three "deep" kickoffs averaged about 68.7 yards and 3.99 hangtime.

On the season, Elliott is averaging about 71.6 yards and 4.21 hangtime. Opposing kickers are averaging about 73.6 yards and 4.27 hangtime.

The snap to foot times on placekicks were as expected. Around 1.30 seconds with the Eagles perhaps a tick or two faster.

Elliott made his only field goal attempt from a distance with an expectancy of around 97%. (The three out of a hundred that are missed are more likely to be blocked than shanked.) On the season, he's now 17-of-19 from distances with an expectancy of about 14.5. So he's plus 2.5 meaning he's earned the Eagles about 7.5 points over standard on 19 kicks. Very good.

Elliott's Elo Kicking rating remained at 2322 (at his rating you're not gaining anything by making a field goal from a distance THAT short). That's eleventh in the league and is +0.66 standard deviations above the mean (more on that later). The league average is 2287. The rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2306, which would be tied for fifteenth if he was a real person instead of an entity. That ranks 0.36 standard deviations above the mean.

The Top Five kickers are Tucker (2377, +1.70); Koo (2359, +1.36); Gay (2358, +1.34); Folk (2357, +1.32); and Gano (2347, +1.14). The Bottom Five kickers are Slye (2232, -1.03); A Carlson (2214, -1.37); Grupe (2202, -1.60); Moody (2193, -1.77); and Ryland (2191, -1.80). About the standard deviations. I discovered a mistake in my formula that I had been carrying for about the past seven or eight years. I was mistakenly not counting the top kicker in the average and that threw everything off. So these are the "right" numbers going forward.

Other stuff:

* Boston Scott had a strong kickoff return. Olamide Zacchaeus had a good block to assist.

* Rick Lovato's first PAT snap was a bit low. It feels like I'm calling these out every week now.

* Christian Elliss and Kelee Ringo assisted on a kickoff tackle. I'm starting to get a good impression from Ringo on special teams. I like that. Well, his penalty last week excluded.

* Nolan Smith made a tackle on a kickoff.

* Elliss and Nicholas Morrow combined on a punt tackle.

* Lovato got creamed on a PAT. This was the one which put the Eagles up 24-17 late in the third quarter. His snap was again a little low, this time to the inside.

* Ringo and Sydney Brown came together on a tackle on a kickoff.

 

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Washington game. Been sitting on this one for a bit. Had some things to deal with the past couple days so I couldn't find the time to do this. Til now.

Braden Mann punted twice. His second punt was very difficult to decipher but I think I have something to work with. His two punts averaged about 53.5 yards and an excellent 5.20 hangtime. Neither was hit outside the numbers. Both had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Tess Way also only punted twice. He averaged about 48.0 yards and 4.78 hangtime. Both hit the 4.5 second mark. One was hit outside the numbers. Better statistical day goes to Mann, putting his mark at 3-3 on the season. Opponents are 4-4 on the season.

Mann is now averaging about 44.7 yards and 4.78 hangtime with 82% at 4.5 seconds or more and 45% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging 48.6 yards and 4.48 hangtime with 55% at 4.5 seconds and 52% hit outside the numbers. We can see a trend developing. Mann is doing very well in hangtime, better than the other team but isn't hitting it quite as far. Still, I would say he has done well. I think that's fair to say.

The Eagles were quicker with their punt process than the Commanders were. Looked like they were around 2.0 seconds from snap to foot. Washington was, as far as I could tell, around 2.05 and 2.18 on their two punts.

Kickoffs were difficult to work out. It looked to me as though Jake Elliott averaged about 72.4 yards and 4.34 hangtime on his seven kickoffs. Joey Slye kicked off six times but one was a squib at the end of the first half, and his final kickoff (more on that later) was an onside attempt. His four deep kickoffs averaged about 78.0 yards and 3.92 hangtime. So he was drilling them very deep but without the average height usually associated with that.

On the season, Elliott is averaging about 71.7 yards and 4.23 hangtime. Opposing kickers are averaging about 74.2 yards and 4.22 hangtime. Really strong numbers here.

Elliott made his only field goal attempt from a distance with an expectancy of about 60%. On the season, he's now 18-of-20 from distances with an expectancy of about 15.1. So he's plus 2.9, meaning he's earned the Eagles about 8.7 points above standard. Very good. His average attempt distance is about 40.2 yards which would normally carry about an 80% expectancy. He's at 90%.

The kicking times for the Eagles seemed to be just a tick under 1.30 seconds. Washington's were closer to 1.35 throughout the day.

Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2328, which now ranks eleventh in the league. He's at 0.74 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is now 2288. The "standard" is 2200, which all but two kickers are above. The rating of Eagles Opponents is at 2319, which would rank thirteenth. That's 0.58 standard deviations above the mean.

The Top Five Kickers (after week eight) surprisingly has someone new in the top spot. He doesn't have the biggest of legs and he has the benefit of kicking indoors a lot of the time, but the dude hardly ever misses. The top kickers are Koo (2366, +1.45); Tucker (2362, +1.37); Gay (2361, +1.35); Folk (2357, +1.28); and Butker (2345, +1.06). Butker has quietly had a fantastic year, I should add. The Bottom Five kickers are A. Carlson (2216, -1.32); Havrisik (2210, -1.49); Grupe (2203, -1.56); Moody (2197, -1.68); and Ryland (2195, -1.71).

Other stuff:

* There was never a doubt in my mind that Slye was going to make that 61 yard field goal at the end of the half. Especially so after getting a free practice shot from 56 yards which was also good.

* Covey had a 24 (or 25?) yard punt return to start an Eagles drive in good field position. Nolan Smith almost made the tackle.

* Lovato's snap to put the Eagles up 31-24 was a bit high.

* I suspect that Elliott's final kickoff may have been intentionally kicked off short in an attempt to force some time off the clock. The play took six seconds. Little did we realize how ineffective the Eagles defense would be at forcing time to run on the ensuing drive. Instead they gift wrapped about seventy yards in about a minute. Gross.

* The final onside kick (which never should have happened, and it wouldn't have if D'Andre Swift would have gone to the ground instead of scoring a stat padding touchdown) was a damn good try by the Commanders. It came pretty close to being up for grabs. Fortunately DeVonta Smith was able to aggressively go up and secure the ball, only a beat before the opposing player could get a hand in there. And there was much rejoicing. But it still shouldn't have come down to that.

[opa-opa]

Its still crazy that special teams has actually been the one consistent good part of this team this year.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Game against the enemy.

Braden Mann punted five times for the Eagles. He averaged about 46.2 "true" yards, as measured from the line of scrimmage to where the ball landed with rolls not counting. His hangtime average was about 4.08 seconds. Only one had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Three were hit outside the numbers. Bryan Anger's two punts for the Cowboys averaged about 41.5 yards and 4.76 hangtime. Both were over 4.5 seconds. One was hit outside the numbers. The way I calculate it, the theoretical "win" goes to the opposing punter, putting Mann's mark at 3-4 in his seven games. Opponents are 5-4 overall.

On the season, Mann is averaging about 45.2 yards and 4.57 hangtime with 63% at 4.5 seconds and 50% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging about 48.2 yards and 4.50 hangtime with 58% at 4.5 seconds and 52% hit outside the numbers. The other guys are hitting it a lot farther. We're hitting it slightly higher. Overall edge to the opposition, I'd say.

The snap to foot times on punts once again favored the Eagles. That's almost always the case. Around 1.95 vs 2.05. Roughly.

Jake Elliott kicked off five times. He averaged about 70.2 yards with only 3.95 hangtime. Brandon Aubrey kicked off five times for the Cowboys. He averaged about 68.0 yards and 4.03 hangtime. The numbers are going down as the weather cools off. That's normal. On the season, Elliott is averaging about 71.6 yards and 4.20 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 73.3 yards and 4.19 hangtime. Those are strong numbers across the board.

Not to sound like a broken record (do young people even understand what that means?), but the snap to foot times on placekicks once again favored the Eagles. In the 1.25 to 1.30 range for us. Dallas was closer to 1.35. Their long field goal came in around 1.40. It looked to me like Aubrey is a bit deliberate mechanically. Something to keep note of for the future.

Elliott's kicking numbers remained the same since he didn't attempt any field goals. His current Elo Kicking Rating is at 2328, which ranks eleventh in the league. That's +0.75 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is 2284. The rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2325, which would rank twelfth. That's +0.70 STD.

The Top Five kickers are Koo (2380, +1.64); Gay (2369, +1.45); Tucker (2368, +1.44); Folk (2364, +1.37); and Butker (2345, +1.04). The Bottom Five kickers are A Carlson (2203, -1.38); Ryland (2201, -1.42); Grupe (2198, -1.47); Moody (2197, -1.49); and York (2184, -1.71). York was signed by the Giants last week so that's why he's included even though he didn't dress for the game. I think that's the way I normally process that. And I excluded the running back who kicked a short field goal for the Texans on Sunday. His rating is included in the averages but it seems silly to include him in a list like this.

Other stuff:

* The Eagles first PAT was an adventure. Five yard penalty for a delay of game followed by another five yards for a false start by Tyler Steen. Fortunately Elliott casually drilled the kick from 43 yards.

* On the kickoff after the first touchdown, the Eagles allowed a strong return. Bad job in the middle of the field. I'd lay primary blame on Nakobe Dean, who has never stood out to me on specials despite what the team has said. Ellliott failed to make the tackle (understandable) before Kelee Ringo dragged the returner down around midfield. Bad play.

* Patrick Johnson made a super openfield tackle on a punt. Kudos.

* Rashaad Penny allowed a kickoff to go out of bounds to put the ball on the forty. I'm still not convinced that he was attempting to properly execute the "put your foot out of bounds and touch the ball" play. Maybe that's what happened. I'm not sure. Ultimately the play worked out well, but for an instant I was rather frightened about what might be happening.

* The Eagles caught a break on the Cowboys punt in the second half on 4th and 8 from the Eagles 43. The Eagles were lined up offside. It looked to me like it was Josh Sweat. By rights it should have then become and 4th and 8 from the 38, and I'm thinking Dallas probably goes for it. It was a really stupid play and the Eagles got bailed out. But then again, the Cowboys lined up offside frequently throughout the game so maybe it evens out.

* Nolan Smith made a tackle on a kickoff.

* On the Eagles punt from the six yard line late in the game, they got away with movement on the end of the line just prior to the snap of the ball. Lucky break, although the punt wasn't great and a re-do, even from three yards back, might have favored the Eagles.

* Without Boston Scott, the Eagles used two deep kickoff returners. It was Penny and Olamide Zacchaeus. OZ fair caught one kickoff in the field of play. New rule thingee.

* I think the most troubling special teams play of the game came late in the game when Micah Parsons came ever so close to blocking an Eagles punt. Practice squad callup Ben VanSumeren did a very poor job on the end of the line. He barely impacted the Cowboys star before turning upfield to chase the punt. Not good. It was so damn dangerous.

[mattwill]

There is a huge difference between Mann’s punts in the last two games.  Hang times well over 5 down to hang times barely over 4.  Any thoughts about why.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

21 hours ago, mattwill said:

There is a huge difference between Mann’s punts in the last two games.  Hang times well over 5 down to hang times barely over 4.  Any thoughts about why.

He had a reputation for not being particularly good. I’m guessing he’s simply proving why.

[RLC]

On 11/9/2023 at 9:56 AM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

* I think the most troubling special teams play of the game came late in the game when Micah Parsons came ever so close to blocking an Eagles punt. Practice squad callup Ben VanSumeren did a very poor job on the end of the line. He barely impacted the Cowboys star before turning upfield to chase the punt. Not good. It was so damn dangerous.

I can't think of a tougher assignment for a UDFA LB than trying to block Micah Parsons in your first game. He won't face a more challenging block the rest of the way (unless it's Parsons again). Good to know for the rookie. 

Anecdotally, Mann just feels like a better punter than Siposs. I don't hold my breath the same way on punts.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Chiefs game. Monday night. Short week. Hustled through this process to have it done before Thanksgiving. Let's go.

Braden Mann punted seven times for the Eagles. He averaged about 44.9 yards (not the "official" stats but it's what actually happened on the field, as measured from the line of scrimmage to where the ball landed or was caught) and 4.24 hangtime. Only two of the seven had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Three were hit outside the numbers. Four were not. Tommy Townsend punted six times for the Super Bowl champions. He averaged about 42.7 yards and 4.54 hangtime. Three (and a fourth was super duper close) had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Three were hit outside the numbers. The slight statistical edge goes to Townsend, as the extra .30 seconds outweighs the yardage deficit. This punts Mann's mark at 3-5 on the season and the Eagles as a team at 4-6 on the season.

Okay, on the season Mann is averaging about 45.1 yards and 4.47 hangtime with 52% at 4.5 seconds and 48% hit outside the numbers. Through half a season, that's the best we've had since Donnie Jones in 2015. Actually the second best ever, I suppose. Eagles opponents are averaging about 47.3 yards and 4.50 hangtime with 56% at 4.5 seconds and 51% hit outside the numbers. Those opponents numbers are exceptionally close to the season-ending numbers of last year.

The snap to foot times on punts for both teams were around 2.00 to 2.05 or so. The Chiefs final punt was the slowest of the night, perhaps a little slower than 2.10.

Kickoffs were tough to work out but it looks like Jake Elliott's four kickoffs averaged about 72.3 yards and 4.10 hangtime. Harrison Butker's three kickoffs seemed to average about 74.7 yards and 4.14 hangtime. That's the best I could make out of it. On the season Elliott is averaging about 71.6 yards and 4.20 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 73.4 yards and 4.19 hangtime. Very strong numbers all around.

The snap to foot times on place kicks were right around 1.30 seconds, with the Eagles perhaps being a tick faster.

Elliott did not attempt any field goals so his kicking numbers for the year remain the same. His Elo Kicking Rating of 2328 is tied for twelfth in the league. The league average is 2284. The standard of course is always 2200. The rating of Eagles Opponent is exactly the same as Elliott's 2284. That is +0.69 standard deviations above the mean by the way.

After week eleven, the Top Five ranked kickers are Koo (2381, +1.51); Gay (2358, +1.15); Prater (2357, +1.14); Tucker (2356, +1.12); and D. Carlson (2349, +1.01). The Bottom Five kickers are Havrisik (2205, -1.23); A. Carlson (2193, -1.42); Ryland (2185, -1.55); York (2184, -1.56); and Ammendola(PS) (2123, -2.51). York has yet to even dress for the Giants since they signed him so I'm not sure if I should be including him. But I did. I'm curious what the Giants choose to do for their next game since their other punter (Bullock) is out of free activations off the practice squad. Bullock is better anyway so I'm not sure why they signed York in the first place. Whatever.

Other stuff:

* The Eagles continue to deploy two deep returners on kickoffs.

* Elliott's first PAT clanged off the upright but went in.

* Covey had a nice punt return of about ten yards, as he quickly and decisively charged to the sideline to beat the angle of the pursuit. His decisiveness continues to impress. No diddling around and waiting like so many punt returners seem to do.

* On a couple of punt returns, the Eagles had a defender peel back in the middle of the field as soon as the ball was kicked in order to give more support for the returner. I believe this was Eli Ricks.

* Sydney Brown and Christian Elliss both missed tackles -- and Zach Cunningham fell down -- allowing Toney a pretty significant punt return. Nicholas Morrow eventually made the tackle. Bad play.

* Braden Mann's punt in the final minute of the first half was a dud. Worse than the punt that Siposs had that everyone went nuts about. It only went 34 yards in the air, and after the bounce Toney picked up a quick twenty yards setting up the field goal at the gun. Really disgusting sequence all around, with the Eagles failing to properly run out the clock on their possession, all the way to a crappy punt and the subsequent free three points.

* VanSumeren and Stoll made tackles on punts.

* Covey had a superb punt return of about 26 yards. Again I love his quick feet and his penchant for changing directions WHILE ALSO RUNNING FORWARD. That is so key. He's decisive, fearless, quick footed, and always moving forward.

* Elliss missed another tackle later on.

* I was surprised and ever so thankful when the Chiefs chose to punt from the Eagles 39 yard line in the fourth quarter. The Eagles got a break there. And they got another break when the Chiefs player was unable to catch the ball at the one yard line. Instead of starting there, they got it at the twenty and went the whole way for the go-ahead (and winning) score.

* Poor snap by Lovato on the final PAT. Nice job by Mann of digging out a low snap. Lovato continues to concern me with his occasional slightly errant snaps. They're never truly awful but I'm not comfortable with how often our holder is forced to make an adjustment.

* With a little over five minutes left in the game, Covey had another solid punt return of about twenty yards which flipped field position a bit.

* Josh Jobe had a great 1-on-1 tackle on the final punt. He timed it up well and came through in a clutch way.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Bills game in the rain.

Braden Mann punted five times for the Eagles, with an average of about 52.6 yards and 4.65 hangtime. Four of the five had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. (The last one did not.) Only one of the five was hit outside the numbers. Sam Martin punted four times for Buffalo. He averaged about 43.0 yards and 4.65 seconds. Three of the four had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Two were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical day goes to Mann, putting his mark at 4-5 on the season. As a team, the Eagles are 5-6 in their theoretical 1v1 battle with the opposing punter.

On the season, Mann is averaging about 46.4 yards and 4.50 hangtime with 57% at 4.5 seconds and 43% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging about 46.9 yards and 4.52 hangtime with 58% at 4.5 seconds and 51% hit outside the numbers. Slight edge to the other team.

Both teams were a hiccup slower than usual on their punt process. Around 2.1 seconds from snap to foot. Eagles maybe a tad faster, Bills a tad slower.

The snap to foot times in placekicks was unusual. Unusual since for about the first time in a long time, the "other team" was faster than the Eagles. The Bills were amazingly quick with their kicks. Around 1.20 seconds with some seemingly faster than that, including the field goal that was blocked. The Eagles were in the high 1.2s to low 1.3s, which is more than fine. I never realized how fast and short to the ball Tyler Bass is. Impressed, even though I think he's only an average kicker. Middle tier kind of guy.

Jake Elliott kicked off seven times with an average of about 69.9 yards (yes I accounted for the fact that one of his kickoffs was from the 40 rather than the 35) and 4.03 hangtime. Bass kicked off seven times for the Bills. One was difficult to time. If I got it correct, he averaged about 65.0 yards and 4.28 seconds. (The intentionally hit it short several times.) On the season, Elliott is averaging about 71.4 yards and 4.18 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 72.1 yards and 4.20 hangtime.

Elliott obviously made his only kick, a super clutch last second 59-yarder. Based on my methodology, I have that as about a 38% kick under normal conditions. On the season, he's now 19-of-21 from distances with an expectancy of about 15.5. So he's plus 3.5, meaning he's earned the Eagles about 10.5 points above expected value. His average attempt distance is a robust 41.0 yards. The league average is generally in the 38 or 39 yard range. So he's been kicking them further and with better than average accuracy. It's a great performance

Elliott's Elo Kicking rating improved to 2339, which now puts him at ninth in the league. He's +0.85 standard deviations above the mean. With two missed field goals, the rating of Eagles Opponents dropped to 2293, which would rank nineteenth in the league. The league average is 2285. The standard is 2200.

Amazingly, Justin Tucker is no longer in the Top Five of rated kickers. I suspect he'll return sooner than later. The Top Five are Koo (2383, +1.54); Folk (2353, +1.07); Butker (2349, +1.01); Hopkins (2349, +1.01); and Gay (2348, +0.99). The Bottom Five are Moody (2212, -1.14); A Carlson (2194, -1.42); Havrisik (2191, -1.47); Ryland (2164, -1.89); and Ammendola-PS (2103, -2.84). Ammendola was subsequently waived by the Texans. Frankly I'm not sure why they signed him in the first place. He's always been a very lowly rated kicker. Surely the Texans had better options.

Other stuff:

* I thought Ben VanSumeren may have been lined up offside on the punt after the first series of downs by the Bills. If not, he was cutting it too damn close. It's inexcusable really.

* Sydney Brown had a couple of secure, aggressive tackles in punt coverage. He's showing up well on specials.

* Once again the Eagles used two kick returners, Scott and Zacchaeus. They ended up calling for fair catches several times. Since our kick return game sucks, that's probably a good idea.

* The Bills changed up their kickoff process throughout the game. Sometimes Bass would take a regular approach, but most of the time he took only a couple of steps before popping the ball short of the goal line. I guess they wanted to induce the Eagles to return the ball...or force them to actually fair catch a wet ball in the rain. Strategy.

* Jalen Carter blocked a field goal. Impressive timing. And as I mentioned earlier, the Bills got that ball off quickly so it was no fault of their snapper, holder, or kicker.

* Josh Jobe made a tackle from behind on a punt.

* The Bills went offside on a PAT. The Eagles might have considered taking the ball at the one and going for two points but based on the score at the time, there wasn't really an advantage for doing so. So they kicked off from the 40 instead and Elliott hit it out of the back of the endzone.

* Britain Covey had a nice (approximate 17 yard) punt return. He's just so quick and decisive. I remain impressed.

* Patrick Johnson made a tackle on a punt.

* Tony Franklin was NOT a great kicker for the Eagles. He was wildly inconsistent and missed a lot of mid-range kicks. I wish I had access to his career data so that I could retroactively give him a rating. I suspect he would barely crack 2100.