13 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

I disagree that it was a guaranteed touchback. We'll just leave it at that.

Not only is it inside the 2 yard line where he fields it, he turns sideways to catch it. It was a 58 yard punt. The chances of that landing in the field of play and then bouncing straight up or backwards is next to nothing.

Question to the STs fans who follow this thread. Is it a wise move to sign Aubrey away from the Cowboys this Offseason?

12 hours ago, mattwill said:

Question to the STs fans who follow this thread. Is it a wise move to sign Aubrey away from the Cowboys this Offseason?

Wouldn't he be a restricted free agent? The Cowboys would match any offer.

9 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Wouldn't he be a restricted free agent? The Cowboys would match any offer.

You are right.

Chargers fiasco.

Braden Mann punted three times for the Eagles with an average of about 52.3 yards and 4.56 hangtime. Two were in the air for at least 4.5 seconds. All three were hit outside the numbers. J.K. Scott punted five times for the Chargers. He averaged about 50.8 yards and 4.92 hangtime with four reaching the 4.5 second mark and only two hit outside the numbers. The better statistical game goes to Scott (the considerably higher hangtime more than made up for the small deficit in distance), putting Mann's mark at 10-3 on the year.

Through thirteen games, Mann is averaging 49.1 yards and 4.55 hangtime with 62% at 4.5 seconds and 65% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging about 45.4 yards and 4.39 hangtime with 41% at 4.5 seconds and 45% hit outside the numbers. Significant advantage for the Eagles.

The snap to foot times on punts were about 2.0 for the Eagles and 2.10ish for the Chargers.

Jake Elliott kicked off seven times with an average of 59.3 yards and an average starting position of 29.6. Cameron Dicker punted off seven times for the Chargers. He averaged about 60.4 yards with a starting position of 31.4.

On the season, Elliott is averaging 59.1/28.5. Opposing kickers are averaging 60.4/28.2. The numbers are getting closer but the Eagles are still in a deficit position here.

The snap to foot times on placekicks were about the same for both teams (although I was unable to examine a bunch of them). Around 1.30 across the board.

Elliott made four of five field goal attempts from distances with an EV of about 3.62. On the season, he's now 16-of-21 from distances with an EV of about 14.6. This puts him +1.4 which equates to about 4.2 points above expectation. Elliott's average attempt distance is a healthy 44.6 (league average is around 40.6). His Elo Kicking Rating dropped a point to 2282 which ranks twenty-second in the league. That's -0.16 standard deviations from the mean. The league average is 2293. The rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2233, which would rank tenth. That's +0.57 STD from the mean. Opposing kickers just naturally kick well against the Eagles. It feels like it's been that way for decades. Especially on long kicks. Sigh.

The Top Five Kickers after fourteen weeks were Folk (2422, +1.84); Aubrey (2421, +1.83); Dicker (2409, +1.66); Boswell (2408, +1.64); McLaughlin (2386, +1.33). The Bottom Five Kickers were Ryland (2217, -1.09); Mevis (2216, -1.10); Grupe (2207, -1.23); Smyth-PS (2198, -1.36); and Moody (2163, -1.86).

Other stuff:

• Low snap from Cal Adomitis on the first Eagles punt. Kinda knee high. Not awful or anything but worth noting/observing. He was subsequently released but I don't think this was a performance based demotion. His time had simply run out since Charley Hughlett was now healthy. Kudos to Adomitis for doing an overall solid job for a couple of months. He could be someone who could get another look in the future. If not here, I expect him to play somewhere again.

• I thought the Chargers punter was a bit slow mechanically. He has kind of a long legged motion. If I were the Eagles I'd have tried to block those. They've also had some snapping issues this year.

• Kylen Granson had an impressive crossfield chase-down on punt coverage.

• Britain Covey had several very nice punt returns. I've always liked him.

• Moro Ojomo was flagged for a leverage penalty on a Chargers field goal which extended their drive. Ridiculous (not the call but the actual infraction). Fortunately for the Eagles the Chargers had to settle for a field goal anyway.

• Covey fumbled on a kick return and was lucky to recover it in a crowd.

• Andre Sam with a solid tackle on a kickoff.

• Smael Mondon with a tackle on a kickoff.

• Covey bobbled a punt at his own six yard line and somehow managed a good return out to the twenty-eight. He was also facemasked on the play with a penalty.

• I didn't like the idea of Will Shipley returning the kickoff with eight seconds left in regulation. Man, just take a knee there. You're NOT going to return that for a touchdown. The only team that's going to win there is the Chargers. There was an actual risk of a fumble which would have put the Chargers in position to win the game on a last-play field goal. The Eagles actually lost a game exactly like that in the '94 finale against the Bengals. That was Kotite's last game. The Bengals made two field goals in the final six seconds as I recall.

Raiders game. There wasn't a lot.

Braden Mann only punted once. He "averaged" about 37.0 yards and 3.58 hangtime. His one punt was hit outside the numbers. A.J. Cole punted five times for the Raiders. He didn't impress. He averaged about 42.4 yards and 3.92 hangtime. None reached the 4.5 second mark. Four were hit outside the numbers. Although Cole's performance was decidedly mediocre, he ended up having the better statistical game, putting Mann's mark at 10-4 on the year.

Through fourteen games, Mann is averaging 48.9 yards and 4.54 hangtime with 61% at 4.5 seconds or better and 66% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging 45.1 yards and 4.34 hangtime with 37% at 4.5 or better and 51% hit outside the numbers. Strong advantage Eagles.

The snap to foot times for both teams were kinda slow. Around 2.15. Maybe the weather had something to do with that.

Jake Elliott kicked off six times for the Eagles. He averaged about 58.8 yards with an average starting position of 29.5. Daniel Carlson kicked off to start the game and never saw the field again. He "averaged" 63.0 yards with a starting spot of 33.0.

On the season, Elliott is averaging 59.1 and 28.6. Opposing kickers are averaging 60.4 and 28.3. Slight disadvantage for the Eagles, although the numbers are tightening up.

The Eagles snap to foot times on place kicks were around 1.3. The Raiders never had the opportunity.

Elliott made his only field goal attempt from a distance with an EV of about 0.95. On the season he's now 17-of-22 from distances with an expectancy of about 15.5. This puts him plus 1.5, which means he's earned the Eagles about 4.5 points over expected value. (I should point out that the EV is based on 2000 era data...kickers have gotten better since then.) His average attempt distance is 43.8, which is more than three yards higher than the league average. Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2283, which ranks twenty-first in the league. That's -0.18 STD from the mean. The league average is now 2295. The rating of Eagles Opponents remains at 2333, which would rank tenth. That's +0.56 STD from the mean.

Through fifteen weeks the Top Five Kickers are Folk (2426, +1.93); Dicker (2414, +1.75); Boswell (2408, +1.66); Aubrey (2400, +1.54); and McLaughlin (2395, +1.47). It seems like it's been these same five guys all year long! The Bottom Five Kickers are Fitzgerald (2222, -1.07); Ryland (2217, -1.15); Smyth (2211, -1.23); Koo (subsequently released) (2198, -1.43); and Moody (2183, -1.65).

Other stuff:

• Charley Hughlett returned as the Eagles longsnapper. Not surprisingly, there were no issues whatsoever.

• Jake Elliott somehow missed the ball on his final kickoff. I think it took him a moment to realize that this wasn't going to be a "do over" situation per se. The play clock was still ticking and he had to get the ball kicked before the clock hit zero. So he stepped back and then whacked it.

• Sydney Brown made another stupid special teams play, this time with a block in the back foul on an Eagles punt return. It's become so commonplace for him to do crap like this. It's so disappointing to see him not develop as a reliable player. You expect more from an early third rounder. Sigh.

Commanders game. Some mistakes were made.

Braden Mann punted twice with an average of about 43.0 yards and 4.19 hangtime. One had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. One was hit outside the numbers. Tress Way punted five times for Washington. He averaged 43.8 yards and 4.26 hangtime . None reached the 4.5 mark. Two were hit outside the numbers. The statistical edge goes to way, putting Mann's mark at 10-5 on the year.

Through fifteen games, Mann is averaging 48.8 yards and 4.53 hangtime with 61% at 4.5 seconds or higher and 65% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging 45.0 yards and 4.34 hangtime with 34% reaching the 4.5 mark and 50% hit outside the numbers. Significant overall advantage to the Eagles. Though he has tapered off a bit of late, Mann is absolutely having a very, very good year.

The snap to foot times kinda favored Washington. They were right around the 2.0 mark (their third one was slower). One of Mann's punts was closer to 2.10. Whatever.

Jake Elliott kicked off five times. He averaged about 59.8 yards with an average subsequent starting position of 29.6. Jake Moody kicked off three times for the Commanders. He averaged 61.0 and 25.7, with one of those starting drives being their own due to a fumble recovery. On the season, Elliott is averaging 59.1 and 28.7. Opposing kickers are averaging 60.5 and 28.2. So the Eagles are "losing" about half a yard per kickoff. Not a lot but still not insiginificant.

The snap to foot times once again kinda favored Washington. They seemed to be around 1.30. The Eagles were sort of around 1.33. Maybe. It's hard to tell.

Elliott missed his only two official field goal attempts. He also missed a third which was negated because of an offside call. The expected value of those two kicks was about 1.33. On the season he's now 17-of-24 from distances with an EV of 16.9. This means he's +0.1 which translates to +0.3 points. This numbers has gone down considerably over the past few weeks. Not good. His average attempt distance is 44.1, which is considerably higher than the overall league average of 40.6.

Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating dropped to 2247 which ranks twenty-fifth in the league. That's -0.72 standard deviations from the mean. The league average is 229.5 The rating of Eagles Opponents remained steady at 2333 which would rank tenth. That's+0.56 STD from the mean.

The Top Five kickers are the same five that seemingly have been there all year, in varying orders. Folk (2427, +1.97); Dicker (2415, +1.79); Aubrey (2401, +1.58); McLaughlin (2399, +1.55); and Boswell (2398, +1.54). The Bottom Five kickers are Smyth (2231, -0.96); Mevis (2215, -1.20); Sauls-PS (2206, -1.34); Ryland (2205, -1.35); and Moody (2183, -1.68).

Other stuff:

• Will Shipley lost the ball on a fumble on the opening kickoff. This illustrates the point I was trying to make in the Chargers game when he returned the ball with seconds left in regulation. I felt then that that decision didn't make sense. (He should have quickly run out of bounds or taken a knee). Losing the ball on a fumble in that situation could have lost you the game on the spot. Thankfully this one happened with about 59 minutes and 50 seconds left so there was still a lot of time left to recover. But overall, a bad, bad play.

• There was a low snap on Washington's first field goal.

• The second Commanders kickoff was nearly to the exact same spot as the first kickoff. Weird.

• Sydney Brown made a superb play on an Eagles punt with an immediate tackle.

• Shipley had another bad play on a kickoff. He fielded the ball in the endzone and was prepared to take a knee which would put the ball at the thirty-five yard line. But he lost his balance, stumbled forward, and was forced to return it. He only made it to the nineteen. I wouldn't classify this as a "bad decision" because the decision ("dammit, now I HAVE TO RUN IT OUT!") was a good one. It was just sort of bad luck that he lost his balance.

• All three of Elliott's missed field goals were wide left.

• Shipley made a strong 1-on-1 tackle on the kickoff after the Eagles went ahead in the second half 14-10.

• The Eagles got away with a delay of game on the fourth quarter punt that Mann hurried and shanked. This was a weird play sequence all around.

• I was shocked and pleased that Washington punted with 6:44 left in the fourth quarter down by eleven points. Thank you indeed. I'm sure Cowboys fans were pissed at the time.

• I hated giving up the late touchdown which forced the Eagles to have to recover an onside kick with 1:10 left in the game. Fortunately the ball took a happy bounce and DeVonta Smith was able to haul it in without much difficulty.

• Washington got away

Special teams were the difference in today's game. Elliot was good. Mann was good. Covey was fine. And the blocked XP was huge.

Bills game in a downpour. Mostly good, although there was one awful play of significance.

Braden Mann punted seven times with an average of about 51.1 yards and 4.40 hangtime. Three reached the 4.5 second mark. Five were hit outside the numbers on the field, toward the sideline. Mitch Wishnowsky punted six times for the Bills. He averaged 41.8 yards and 4.66 hangtime. Five of the six reached the 4.5 second mark. Four of the six were hit outside the numbers. Mann's significant edge in distance outweighs the greater hangtime of Wishnowsky, so Mann gets credit for the theoretical 1-on-1 victory. This puts his mark at 11-5 on the year.

Through sixteen games, Mann is averaging 49.0 yards and 4.51 hangtime with 59% at 4.5 or more and 69% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging 44.7 yards and 4.37 hangtime with 39% at 4.5 or greater and 52% hit outside the numbers. This is a notable edge for the Eagles. I've been tracking this for well over thirty years and this is easily the best season the Eagles have ever had in comparison to their opponents. Historically the Eagles have had the worse of it in the punting game. I'm not even kidding when I say that they have almost never had better numbers than their opponents. So kudos to Mann for sure.

On the punt from the back of the endzone, the snap to foot time for the Eagles was under 1.6 seconds, which is remarkable. About a half second faster than many NFL punts. Mann was absolutely not going to have that punt blocked. The hangtime wasn't very good (sub 3.3) but he hit it almost fifty yards. There was one punt which was closer to 2.2 seconds (the snap seemed a bit off) but the rest were generally between 2.02 and 2.12 seconds. The Bills were generally between 2.05 and 2.12. So overall both teams were in the same range, excluding the hurried punt from the endzone.

Jake Elliott kicked off four times with an average of 62.0 yards and a resulting starting field position of 24.3. Michael Badgley kicked deep twice. He averaged about 58.0 and 29.0. On the season, Elliott is averaging 59.3 and 28.5 Opposing kickers are averaging 60.4 and 28.2. The numbers are almost evening out at this point.

The snap to foot times for the Eagles were about 1.35. The Bills were exceptionally slow on their only PAT. Almost 1.5 seconds. You might even get a kick blocked when you're that slow!

Elliott made his only two field goal attempts. The expected value of his two attempts was about 1.6. On the season, he's now 19-of-26 from distances with an EV of about 18.5. This puts him +0.5, which equates to +1.5 points. Elliott's average attempt distance is a hefty 43.6. The league average is about 40.6. Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2254, which ranks 25th in the league. That's -0.62 standard deviations from the mean. The league average is now at 2295. The rating of Eagles Opponents remains at 2333, which is +0.58 STD from the mean. That would rank twelfth in the league. Basically opposing kickers when kicking against the Eagles perform as one kicker who's performing at the level in the top third of the league. In other words, they just kick better when they're playing against us.

The Top Five Rated Kickers are Folk (2428, +2.02); Dicker (2400, +1.60); Aubrey (2397, +1.55); Myers (2387, +1.40); and Boswell (2385, +1.37). The Bottom Five/Six are Mevis/Borregales (2218, -1.16); Sauls-PS (2209, -1.20); Ryland (2205, -1.36); Karty (2197, -1.48); and Moody (2196, -1.50).

Other stuff:

• The Eagles were flagged for an illegal formation on the opening kickoff of the game. It's ridiculous.

• Questionable fair catch by Britain Covey on the Bills first punt of the game. He had about ten yards of space and would likely have been able to gain a decent chunk of yardage. He usually doesn't make that kind of mistake.

• Covey was subsequently interfered with on a later punt. Sydney Brown was obliterated by the Buffalo gunner who then tripped and fell into Covey. Thankfully the officials didn't pick up the flag, which I feared they might. Even though he was contacted by Brown, it was the Bills player who initiated all of the contact on the play.

• Later on Covey did NOT call for a fair catch near the sideline on a punt where it appeared he would. He ended up gaining about eight yards. That's what I would classify as "hidden yardage". Covey is sneaky good at plays like that.

• With only seconds left in the first half, the Eagles smartly tried to kick it out of the back of the endzone on a kickoff. They didn't want to risk the possibility of a big return. Unfortunately Elliott wasn't able to reach the back of the endzone. Fortunately the return wasn't especially effective and the half came to a quiet end.

• The Boneheaded Play of the Year Award goes to Cameron Latu, who inexplicably tried to down a punt which had come to a rest at the one yard line. He didn't need to do anything and the Bills drive would have started there. Yet he decided to "down" the ball and then proceeded to put a foot in the endzone, resulting in a touchback which cost the Eagles nineteen yards. He's one of our better special teams players so I'm not going to call for his head, but my goodness he has to be smarter than that!

• A couple of Hughlett punt snaps looked a little high and to the right. One if particular seemed to put the ball in harm's way as Mann had to drift to the right, very close to where the Bills rush was coming from.

• Jalen Carter made the play of the game when he skied to block the Bills first (and only in hindsight) PAT attempt. Buffalo's process on that play was remarkably slow and I have little doubt that that was part of the reason for their failure. That extra tenth of a second allowed Carter to get just a hair more penetration and perhaps a hair more elevation. Great play by Carter though.

• I thought Will Shipley looked far too tentative on one kick return. He really doesn't stand out very much as a kick returner.

• The onside kick with seconds left in the game took a very happy bounce right in the arms of Dallas Goedert. We were all able to breath a sigh of relief at that point.

• Hughlett was subsequently released and signed to the practice squad. I do not believe this was performance related. I think they just needed to create a roster spot for an extra offensive lineman for the final game of the regular season. With the intention to "rest the starters" they needed more bodies on the offensive line.

Does our Punter still have a right leg?? Or did it fall off by now??

🫣😎

Season finale.

Braden Mann punted three times with an average of 38.0 yards and 4.43 hangtime. Two reached the 4.5 mark. One was hit outside the numbers on the field. Tress Way punted three times for the Commanders. He averaged 48.0 yards and 4.45 hangtime with none reaching the 4.5 mark and none hit outside the numbers. The better statistical game goes to Way, putting Mann's mark at 11-6 on the year.

On the season, Mann averaged 48.6 yards (not the "official" NFL stats but the actual true distance with rolls not counting) and 4.51 hangtime with 59% reaching the 4.5 second mark and 64% hit outside the numbers. Eagles Opponents averaged 44.8 yards and 4.37 hangtime with 37% at 4.5 and 49% hit outside the numbers. This is one phase of special teams where the Eagles definitely had the advantage.

Touch to toe times on punts were unremarkable. Right around 2.0 seconds for both teams. No issues. No complaints.

Jake Elliott kicked off four times. He averaged about 70.5 yards with an average starting spot of 32.8. Jake Moody kicked off four times for Washington. He averaged 62.0 yards and 34.3. On the season, Elliott averaged about 59.8 yards and 28.7. Opponents averaged about 60.5 and 28.6. For the most part, I would say the kickoff game this year was a "neutral" outcome for the Eagles. They didn't give up big returns regularly but they also didn't generate too much on their own.

The snap to foot times on placekicks were about 1.3 to 1.35 for the Eagles. Washington was around the same, except for one which was around 1.22.

Jake Elliott made his only field goal attempt from a distance with an expected value (based on what kickers were making at the turn of this century) of 0.82. On the season, he was 20-of-27 from distances with an EV of 19.3. This puts him +0.7, which equates to +2.1 points earned. His average attempt distance was 43.4 yards, much higher than the league average of 40.6. Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating is now 2257, which ranks twenty-fifth in the league. That's -0.64 STD from the mean. The league average is 2296. The rating of Eagles Opponents dropped to 2318, which would rank sixteenth. That's +0.33 STD from the mean.

The final regular season ratings saw the following as the Top Five Kickers. Folk (2428, +1.98); Dicker (2400, +1.56); Boswell (2393, +1.46); Aubrey (2380, +1.26); and Fairbairn (2377, +1.21). The Bottom Five Kickers were Fitzgerald/Ryland (2224, -1.09); Sauls-PS (2221, -1.13); Borregales (2212, -1.27); Karty (2197, -1.49); and Moody (2196, -1.66).

Other stuff:

• For the first time this year, the Eagles intentionally tried to kick the ball deep on kickoffs rather than place the ball short to force returns. I presume this was because the backups were playing regularly so there was no need to have them also have to cover kicks. Saves some wear and tear and possibly prevents injuries. It made sense.

• It was weird but the the placekick that Washington got off quickly (I clocked it at 1.22 seconds from the snap to the foot) was the long field goal at the end of the half. Usually it's the long kicks that end up being slower mechanically. I was surprised.

• Britain Covey made a poor decision on a punt. Instead of fielding it, he let it bounce at the sixteen. The ball bounced toward the goal line and was rescued by a Washington player before being downed at the nine yard line. This resulted in a net loss of seven yards...and even more if you consider that Covey would have had room to gain positive yards on the return.

• Grant Calcaterra was flagged for a false start on a punt, turning a fourth and one into a fourth and six.

• Kelee Ringo made an excellent 1-on-1 tackle on a punt to bring the returner down immediately. It's a good thing that he occasionally makes standout plays on special teams because at this point it doesn't look like he's ever going to amount to much as a cover corner. He was brutal at times.

It took me months before I could stomach this. 49ers playoff game.

Braden Mann punted four times with an average of 51.5 yards and 4.26 hangtime. Two reached the 4.5 second mark. One was hit outside the numbers. Thomas Morstead punted three times for the Niners. He averaged 36.7 yards and 3.79 hangtime. None reached the 4.5 mark. Two were hit outside the numbers. The better stats go to Mann, putting his season ending record at 12-6.

On the season, Mann averaged 48.7 and 4.50 with 59% at 4.5 seconds and 63% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters averaged 44.5 and 4.35 with 35% at 4.5 seconds and 50% hit outside the numbers. This was an overwhelming advantage for the Eagles. I've been tracking these numbers for almost forty years and the Eagles historically have not fared as well as their opponents. This is by far the best the Eagles punting game has ever been in relation to their opponents. I'm not surprised at all that Mann was re-signed to a higher contract. We're fortunate to have him.

Jake Elliott kicked off five times. He averaged about 58.8 yards with an average subsequent starting field position of 28.0. Eddy Pineiro kicked off five times for the Niners. He averaged 66.6 yards and and an average starting position of 34.4. So yes, the Eagles had an advantage in the kickoff game too.

On the season, Elliott averaged 59.8 yards (not really relevant anymore with the silly kickoff rules) and an average of 28.6. Opponents averaged 60.9 and 28.9. So for the year, the Eagles were ever so slightly better than their opponents on starting field position following kickoffs. But our return game still doesn't impress.

Elliott made both of his field goal attempts, curiously from 41 and 33 yards, which are numbers I love as an Eagles fan. The expectancy was 1.68. So he was a "plus" on field goals. On the season, he was 22-of-29 from distances with an expectancy of 21.0. This puts him at plus 1.0 on the year, which means he earned the Eagles 3.0 points over standard expected value. His average attempt distance was a hefty 43.0, about three yards longer than the league average. His Elo Kicking Rating ended up at 2263, which is -0.49 standard deviations from the mean. He finished the year tied for twenty-third. The league average was 2297. The rating of Eagles Opponents was 2320, which would rank sixteenth. That was +0.34 STD from the mean.

The final, end of season, postseason included Top Five were Folk (2428, +1.93); Dicker (2400, +1.53), Boswell (2395, +1.45), Fairbairn (2387, +1.33); Pineiro (2382, +1.25). The Bottom Five kickers were Ryland (2224, -1.07); Sauls (2221, -1.11); Borregales (2198, -1.45); Karty (2197, -1.46), and Moody (2186, -1.63).

There is another statistical measure that I track on kickers which involves points earned per kick over expected value. In this metric, Elliott finished 35th out of 42 kickers on the season.

Other stuff:

* It was windy, so both teams kicked off using a holder.

* Elliott missed a PAT early in the game which kinda changed the flow of the game. Even so the Eagles had a lead in the second half so I'm not going to "blame" him for the loss.

* Pineiro also missed a PAT late in the game. It didn't matter much.

Preseason game nonsense. Ravens blowout.

Braden Mann punted eight times. He averaged about 46.9 yards and 4.20 hangtime. Probably below average for a preseason game. Punters tend to be fresh at that point in the season and are generally kicking under ideal temperature conditions. (The ball flies in hot weather). So they generally have great games. Mann's first punt was very good but there was a stretch of four punts where he failed to reach the 4.0 second threshold. Kinda ugh.

Jake Elliott kicked off twice. He averaged 59.5 yards (irrelevant based on the new stupid rules) with 3.94 hangtime (mostly irrelevant).

Elliott made his only PAT.

The new snapper Rocco Underwood had a mixed bag. I was very impressed with his velocity on punt snaps. It looked to me like he was sub .70 on a bunch of them. The norm is generally around .75, so that's good. One of his snaps was a big high. Helmet high. Not great but not particularly alarming either. What really troubled me was that his only PAT/FG snap was off the mark. It was low and wide, forcing Mann to have to reach for it. It worked out okay, but that's definitely alarming. That process has to be automatic, and on his first ever snap in the NFL it wasn't. If I see another PAT snap that's off target, I'm going to be officially "out" on him.

The return game stunk. Quez Watkins was meh on kick returns, twice. Erik Ezukanma looked sluggish on his first return, fell down on his second, and finally on his third he looked halfway decent. Overall an uninspiring performance. My guess is that it's going to end up being Will Shipley again (not to say he's a roster lock) this year.

10 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Preseason game nonsense. Ravens blowout.

Braden Mann punted eight times. He averaged about 46.9 yards and 4.20 hangtime. Probably below average for a preseason game. Punters tend to be fresh at that point in the season and are generally kicking under ideal temperature conditions. (The ball flies in hot weather). So they generally have great games. Mann's first punt was very good but there was a stretch of four punts where he failed to reach the 4.0 second threshold. Kinda ugh.

Jake Elliott kicked off twice. He averaged 59.5 yards (irrelevant based on the new stupid rules) with 3.94 hangtime (mostly irrelevant).

Elliott made his only PAT.

The new snapper Rocco Underwood had a mixed bag. I was very impressed with his velocity on punt snaps. It looked to me like he was sub .70 on a bunch of them. The norm is generally around .75, so that's good. One of his snaps was a big high. Helmet high. Not great but not particularly alarming either. What really troubled me was that his only PAT/FG snap was off the mark. It was low and wide, forcing Mann to have to reach for it. It worked out okay, but that's definitely alarming. That process has to be automatic, and on his first ever snap in the NFL it wasn't. If I see another PAT snap that's off target, I'm going to be officially "out" on him.

The return game stunk. Quez Watkins was meh on kick returns, twice. Erik Ezukanma looked sluggish on his first return, fell down on his second, and finally on his third he looked halfway decent. Overall an uninspiring performance. My guess is that it's going to end up being Will Shipley again (not to say he's a roster lock) this year.

Mann was probably pretty tired from getting no rest.

I'm all for Quez battling for a roster spot at WR. I think fans overreacted to a couple plays during his first stint. However, we already know he isn't a kick returner. That experiment didn't work the last time we tried it. Most likely Quez will get cut when we go down to 53. But I'd like to get him back on the practice squad again like last year. He's a familiar target for Hurts if we have a bunch of injuries at WR at one time.

Patriots game stuff.

Braden Mann punted four times with an average of 44.5 yards (not an official number the measurement from the LOS to where the ball landed, was caught, or was marked out of bounds on the fly) and 4.27 hangtime. His two game preseason average is 46.1 and 4.22. That's below his normal average, which is kinda surprising based on the hot weather conditions that summer games provide.

Jake Elliott kicked off four times with an average (irrelevant) of 59.5 yards and 3.83 hangtime. His preseason average is 59.5 and 3.86. Irrelevant but factual.

Elliott made all three of his PATs.

Rocco Underwood's punt snaps were all right around .71 seconds. This is EXTREMELY difficult to time accurately so I can't fully vouch for that number, but I feel confident that he's a hair quicker than any of the snappers the Eagles have used over the past decade. Perhaps more importantly his PAT snaps were all somewhat routine. I still don't think he's going to make the 53 man roster on final cuts. The reason is that he doesn't have to. He's gonna clear waivers (what other team would actually claim an undrafted rookie?) and be eligible for the PS. He'll dress for games for about a month, and when his eligibility expires he'll be officially promoted. If he does get claimed or if he struggles early on, they could easily sign one of the veterans (Hughlett or Adomitis) they used last year.

Other stuff:

• On the opening kickoff, Ja'Quinden Jackson suffered what appeared to be a head injury and was taken off the field on a stretcher and taken to a hospital. He recovered and was subsequently waived-injured. That's a tough way to go out.

• Britain Covey fumbled a fair catch but quickly fell on the ball. He's usually pretty reliable so I'm not overly concerned. But it's not good to see.

• Covey fielded a punt near his goal line, which some may criticize, but under the circumstances I don't think it was a bad decision since he had plenty of room to make a play. He ended up returning the ball all the way out to the twenty-six. He's a good return man. I hope he makes the 53 man roster. He cleared waivers a year ago when the Rams cut him but he was coming off an injury from the year before which isn't the case now. I wouldn't guarantee that he would make it back to the PS this year.

• Erik Ezukanma had a couple of decent kick returns.

• Quez Watkins had a couple of lousy kick returns. On one of them, he actually ran BACKWARDS!!! It looks like all he wants to do is bounce his returns to the left sideline. It's what I remember about him returning years ago. Do not want.

• Cole Wisniewski made a solid diving tackle on a KO.

Sure looked to me like Mann was working on directional punts. Not well as they went out of bounds too early. Might account for the low hang times as he seems to line drive those kicks.

Bengals game. In hindsight I'm happy I didn't go. I had planned on it but some family obligations became a thing.

Braden Mann punted five times with an average of 50.2 and 4.41 HT. His preseason average was 47.3 and 4.28. Those numbers were significantly lower than the past two preseasons (49.1/4.60 last year and 47.6/4.74 the year before that.)

The snap to foot times on punts were right around 2.0 seconds. It looked to me like Underwood was in the low 0.7 range, which is better than average. So that's good.

Jake Elliott kicked off three times. He averaged 61.0 yards and 3.51 hangtime. With the rules in place, these numbers don't matter at all. On the preseason, he averaged 60.0 and 3.75. Again, doesn't matter.

Elliott made his only two field goal attempts, from 45 and 56 yards. Neither were right down the middle but they went in. Including PATs, Elliott made all seven on his kicking attempts this preseason. Based on the distances involved, the expected number was 5.7. He scored 11 points with an expected total of 9.8. So he was a "plus" for the preseason.

The snap to foot times on the FGs were about 1.30. Surprisingly the PAT was slower. Overall no issues.

Other stuff:

• The Eagles used Cole Payton on punts (at least once and possibly twice). This was actually illegal since he wears the same number as Mann. It's against the rules to have two players on the field at the same time with the same number. Brian Billick threw a hissy-fit one year when the Eagles did that in a preseason game. Perhaps the rules have changed since then to accommodate the larger rosters.

• Erik Ezukanma returned a couple of kickoffs but didn't exactly show much. Two were blah. One was okay.

• Kapena Gushiken made a spectacular openfield tackle on a punt. It's the kind of play that makes one think that he could be a special teams standout. I hope he clears waivers and makes the practice squad. He could make an impact on ST for a few games...and perhaps even longer. I kinda think I like him.

• Jordan Mims forced a fumble on a kickoff.

• Tahj Washington returned three kickoffs and didn't look special at all. You could kinda tell on one of the returns that he was absolutely determined to try to make a play. By rights he should have taken a touchback but he wanted to be a star. Can't really blame him under the circumstances.

• Makai Lemon was used as a punt returner once and muffed the ball before picking it up and getting swarmed. Not very inspiring. I'm still hopeful that Britain Covey is our primary return man this year.

Season opener against Washington. At least we won.

Braden Mann punted seven times with an average of about 49.9 yards (as measured from LOS to where the ball actually went, bounces not included) and 4.58 hangtime. Five of the seven had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Four were hit outside the numbers. Tress Way punted six times for the Commanders. He averaged 52.0 yards and 4.70 hangtime. Five of the six reached the 4.5 second mark. Only one was hit outside the numbers. (It was obvious that their objective was to effectively "kick it to the middle"). The better statistical day goes to Way, putting Mann's season mark at 0-1. He still had a really good game though. But Way was excellent too. What probably tipped the scales was that Mann had one semi-crappy punt in the second half that most fans have overlooked.

The snap to foot times on punts favored the Eagles. That's been the norm for decades, it seems. The Eagles were generally right around 2.0 seconds with rookie longsnapper Rocco Underwood getting the ball back fourteen yards in about .70 seconds. Roughly. That's a good time, by the way. Washington had a couple around 2.0 but were probably closer to 2.1 overall. Their first was closer to 2.2, which is actually leisurely.

Jake Elliott kicked off five times with an average distance of 61.4 yards and an average resulting starting spot of 34.4. Drew Stevens had four regular kickoffs which averaged 63.8 and 29.0 respectively. The Eagles clearly had the worst of it in the kickoff game.

The snap to foot times on placements were about the same for both teams. Generally between 1.30 and 1.35. No issues there.

Elliott made his only field goal attempt from a distance with an EV of about .87. On the season he's now 1-of-1. The expected value would be about 2.61 points, which means he's +0.39 after one game. Yay!

Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating improved slightly to 2265, which ranks twenty-second in the league. He's about -0.60 standard deviations from the norm. The league average is 2303. The rating of "Eagles Opponents" dropped to 2311, which would rank thirteenth. That's +0.13 STD from the league average. After one week, the Top Five kickers are Folk (2404, +1.60); Dicker (2400, +1.54); Fairbairn (2395, +1.46); Aubrey (2380, +1.22); and Boswell (2380, +1.22). The Bottom Five are mostly "newbies". Ryland (2228, -1.18); Smack (2222, -1.28); Borregales (2207, -1.51); Zveda (2200, -1.62); and Stevens (2199, -1.64).

Other stuff:

• The Eagles kickoff coverage units were deficient the entire game. Washington was gaining about 5.4 yards per kickoff (34.4 for their starting spot compared to 29.0 for the Eagles). With nine kickoffs (disregarding the onside kick) in the game, that means they had a 49 yard advantage. That is massive "hidden yardage" that favored the Commanders. Not good.

• Darius Cooper had a shoestring tackle on one punt return and later had a very secure 1-on-1 tackle on another. Good job him.

• Washington tried to block the Eagles second punt and kinda came close.

• Britain Covey had three returns of more than ten yards. He appeared confident and "good" overall. I'm pleased that he was permanently added to the roster. An injury may be inevitable with his size and the way he plays the game but we should be good until/if that happens.

• Tank Bigsby returned several kickoffs without any distinction. They kicked it to Will Shipley the final time instead and he didn't really do much either.

• Jalen Carter blocked a PAT which was huge in retrospect the way the game developed. He got a strong two yard penetration and then elevated for the deflection. An example of "big players making big plays".

• Mann deadened one punt at the goal line that Kelee Ringo downed at the two yard line with about thirty seconds left in the first half. With a poorer punt they might have had a chance to try to get some points so this was a big play.

• Jeremiah Trotter impressed with several tackles.

• A.J. Epenesa made a tackle on a punt.

• DeVonta Smith saved the game with an onside kick recovery with a minute to go on a tricky "in between" hop. It was scary in the moment but he made it look easy. I'm pretty sure it was not "easy" after all. But he's just a great player accustomed to doing great things.

Titans game. Mostly good.

Braden Mann only punted two times, which is generally a good number. He averaged 55.5 yards and 4.37 hangtime. One reached the 4.5 second mark. One was hit outside the numbers and an argument could be made that both did. But I'm just going with the one. Tommy Townsend punted four times for the Titans. He averaged 48.3 yards and 4.41 hangtime with only one reaching the 4.5 second mark and three hit outside the numbers. The better statistical game goes to Mann, putting his season "record" at 1-1.

On the season Mann is averaging 51.1 yards and 4.53 hangtime with 67% at 4.5 seconds and 56% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging 505 yards and 4.58 hangtime with 60% at 4.5 seconds and 40% hit outside the numbers. Pretty close overall.

The snap to foot times on punts were around 2.05 for both teams. Roughly. The Eagles had some issues, however. More on that later.

Jake Elliott kicked off five times with an average distance of 55.0 yards. The average Titans starting position was 30.0. Joey Slye kicked off four times for the Titans with an average of 63.0 yards and 36.3. Big edge for the Eagles. 6.3 yard advantage over nine kickoffs equates to about 45 yards of "hidden yardage".

On the season, Elliott is averaging 61.1 yards (irrelevant) and 32.8. Opposing kickers are averaging 63.8 yards (irrelevant) and 29.0 yards. Advantage to the opposition.

The snap to foot times on placekicks were better for the Eagles. They were right around 1.35 (roughly -- one appeared to be under 1.3). The Titans were leisurely on their attempts (around 1.4 to 1.45) until their final go-ahead kick. That one was more normal.

Elliott made his only field goal attempt. It was from a distance (58) with an expectancy of about 41%. On the season, he's now 2-of-2 from distances with an expected value of 1.3. That means he's +0.7 on the season, which equates to +2.1 over expected value. His average attempt distance is a pretty lofty 46.5. League averages are usually around 39 yards, although that number has been steadily increasing over the years as more teams tend to "go for it" on fourth down than they used to. The league average this year is closer to 42 yards. Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2275, which ranks twentieth in the league. That's -0.43 standard deviations from the average. The averaging rating is 2303. The rating of "Eagles Opponents" is 2315 which would rank 16th and is +0.20 STD from the mean.

The Top Five Kickers after two weeks are Aubrey (2393; +1.45); Folk (2392, +1.43); Dicker (2389; +139); McLaughlin (2385, +1.32); and Fairbairn (2383, +1.29). The Bottom Five Kickers are Ryland (2228; -1.20); Smack (2226; -1.23); Zvada (2211; -1.47); Borregales (2199; -1.66); and Stevens (2194; -1.74). The three rookie kickers are all among the latter group. And though it's been awhile, Aubrey has finally emerged as the number one kicker, which is something that appeared inevitable.

Other stuff:

• The Eagles tried a new approach on kickoffs. They took advantage of the rule which allows for an extra twelfth man who can hold for kicks but must immediately hurry off the field. With Mann positioning the ball in an awkward angle, the hope is that the ball would travel in an awkward trajectory and become more difficult for the returner to handle. I'm not sure this worked out as effectively as hoped although it did seem to help somewhat. I'm curious if this will be a permanent strategy or whether this was something they thought would only work well on artificial turf.

• Jeremiah Trotter Jr. made a tackle on a kickoff return. He always seems to be around the ball in coverage. He's a legitimately good special teams player.

• Some people might complain about Britain Covey fielding a punt at the five yard line but I think he made the smart play. It was a monster punt and because of that, he had a LOT of room to operate once he fielded the ball. All he had to do was make that first guy miss and he was bound to take it past the twenty, which is the best that they could have hoped for had he not fielded it. He ultimately got it out to the 29 yard line. He later had a nice spinning return. I'm definitely a big Covey fan.

• Covey made another head's up play on a punt that was bounding toward the endzone. He let it go, and as soon as an opposing player touched it he smartly made a gesture towards picking it up and trying to get some extra yardage. Even if he had fumbled it would have been Eagles ball at the spot of first touching so it would have been a good play. But as soon as the ball went into the endzone he backed off. He's just a very alert football player. Yes, I'm definitely a big Covey fan.

• They used Covey on kick returns replacing Tank Bigsby who at that moment had been effectively promoted to first team running back. He had zero returns however.

• Smael Mondon had a kick tackle. There was another solid kickoff tackle that I think was made by Tank Bigsby although I'm not certain. Someone else might know.

• Darius Cooper made a secure strong tackle on a kickoff. He's really emerged as a strong special teams guy.

• The Eagles had some issues with both of their punts. In both instances, the Titans got significant pressure from their left side working against Jihaad Campbell. He has to do a better job of shoring that up. I'm worried that we're going to have a punt blocked this year. This, in spite of the fact that the Eagles are traditionally one of the better teams in the league in terms of getting the ball off quickly.

• Both the Titans and Eagles strategically kicked off deep into the endzone (in the Eagles case out of the back of the endzone) in the final two minutes. Smart move, especially in the Eagles case with only nine seconds left. You don't want to run the risk of a big return there. Just let the other team start at the 35 and go to work stopping them.

Bears debacle.

Braden Mann, like most of his teammates, did not have a good game. He punted four times with an average of about 42.0 yards and only 4.29 hangtime. One reached the 4.5 mark. Two were hit outside the numbers. Tory Taylor punted (only) twice for the Bears with an average of 52.0 yards and 4.89 hangtime. Both cracked the 4.5 second barrier. One was hit outside the numbers. Taylor was the obvious "winner" putting Mann's record at 1-2 on the season.

Through three games Mann is averaging 48.3 yards and 4.46 hangtime with 54% reaching the 4.5 second mark and 54% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging 50.8 yards and 4.64 hangtime with 67% at 4.5 or better and 42% hit outside the numbers. The Eagles are having the worst of it so far in the punting game. I still feel confident in Mann, however. I'm not worried.

The snap to foot times on punts favored the Eagles. The first one was very quick (sub 1.9) while the others appeared to be around 2.05. The Bears were particularly slow on their punts. Around 2.1 for the first and around 2.25 for the second. Wow.

Jake Elliott kicked off to start the game and never kicked off again. He "averaged" 59.0 yards with an average starting spot of 30.0. Cairo Santos kicked off six times. He averaged 57.0 yards and 32.2. The Eagles had the better of it on kickoffs.

On the season, Elliott is averaging 60.8 (irrelevant) and 32.9. Opposing kickers are averaging 63.8 (irrelevant) and 29.0. So basically the Eagles have been "losing" about four yards of field position on every kickoff. That adds up over the course of a game and the course of the season.

Elliott did not attempt any field goals, so his numbers remain the same. 2-of-2 on the season from 46.5 yards out with an expectancy of about 1.3. Snap to foot times on placekicks seemed pretty normal for both teams. Around 1.30 for the Eagles and between 1.25 and 1.40 for the Bears.

Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating remains at 2277, which ranks 21st. That's about -0.46 STD from the mean. The league average is 2305. The rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2321, which would rank 15th. That's +0.26 STD from the mean.

The Top Five Kickers are Folk (2395, +1.46); McLaughlin (2393, +1.43); Fairbairn (2383, +1.27); Aubrey (2380, +1.22); and Pineiro (2378, +1.19). The Bottom Five Kickers are Ryland (2241, -1.05); Zvada (2222, -1.36); Stevens (2211, -1.54); Smack (2209, -1.57); and Borregales (2187, -1.83).

Other stuff:

• It looks like the league forced the Eagles to use a tee to kickoff when Mann is holding the ball crooked. I'm not sure what would be illegal about holding it on the ground. Feels to me like the league has an agenda against us for some reason.

• Santos is doing something innovative on kickoffs this year. (I saw a video about it the other day). Instead of lining up in a traditional position which gives information to the receiving team (they can tell from the stance what direction the ball is likely headed), he's turning his back to the defense and then suddenly twisting around and approaching the ball for the kick. I have a feeling we're going to see a lot of other kickers try this. Anything that can help, y'know...

• Smael Mondon and Chance Campbell combined on a kickoff tackle.

• On the Bears punt that was downed at the one yard line but was subsequently ruled a touchback, I saw it immediately and did not worry at all during the commercial break about the Eagles impending horrible field position. His foot was on the line.

• Rocco Underwood had a reputation for being very aggressive in punt coverage, and you can see it already in the NFL. He's pretty active getting downfield.

• Darius Cooper had another standout play on special teams. He made a very strong tackle on a punt from his position as a gunner. He's a tough dude and a strong ST player.

• It looks to me like our standout former first round pick (sarcasm intended) Jihaad Campbell was replaced on the punting unit. He gave up a lot of pressure last week. His replacements were much better.

• Kelee Ringo committed another boneheaded penalty. With the game still somewhat in reach (only down thirteen late in the third quarter), the Eagles had the Bears backed up. With a solid return, they could easily get the ball around midfield to spark a rally. But Ringo held a defender and knocked the Eagles back pretty damn far. (Hell, they probably wouldn't have done jack anyway but the momentum was stifled.)

• For the second week in a row, an opposing team mis-hit a kickoff short of the landing zone giving the Eagles the ball at the forty. Of course they didn't do anything with it.

• QUASI SPECIAL TEAMS COMPLAINT -- why the hell were were punting from around midfield instead of going for it on fourth and about a yard and a half? Sure, it was too far for a tush push, but My God, you HAVE to have a play in your playbook that can get two yards! Is our entire FOURTH AND SHORT offense based solely on a tush push?

On that touchback punt, it really highlights how bad the TV coverage has gotten. How may replays did they show before the commercial break only to cut it off before you could visually verify it? The announcers, meanwhile are hyper-focused on the first guy that touches it and not the guy that secured it. The announcers suck. the producers suck.

... and since I'm on the subject ... when is it ever acceptable to not show the snap on a play? Replays can wait. Cameras on players and coaches on the sideline can wait. This is sport, not a work of art. Real fans want to see teams coming out of the huddle , see who is on the field, see how teams lineup. Covering football is the easiest thing ever. Just show the game. /rant

Eagles/Rams game.

Braden Mann punted seven times, although only six were official. The seventh was on a re-kick after a penalty. He averaged 46.1 yards and 4.47 hangtime with five reaching the 4.5 second mark and four hit outside the numbers. Ethan Evans punted four times for the Rams. He averaged 50.5 yards and 4.55 hangtime. Three reached the 4.5 mark and all four were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical day goes to Evans, putting Mann's mark at 1-3 on the season.

On the season, Mann is averaging 47.6 yards and 4.46 hangtime with 60% at 4.5 seconds or more and 55% hit outside the numbers. Opposing teams are averaging 50.7 yards and 4.61 hangtime with 69% at 4.5 seconds and 56% hit outside the numbers. Overall Mann's numbers are down slightly this year. And I would say that opposing teams have had the better of it thus far in the punting game, excluding the returns, which the Eagles have been pretty good at.

The snap to foot times on punts were normal for both teams. Eagles were right around 2.0 the whole game. The Rams averaged similarly with one quicker and one slower. But overall, nothing out of the ordinary.

Jake Elliott kicked off five times with an average of 55.4 yards and an average resulting starting position of 26.8. Harrison Mevis kicked off five times for the Rams with one going out of bounds. He averaged 60.4 yards with an average resulting starting position of 32.0. The Eagles definitely had the edge here, a far cry from the year before when the then Rams kicker bewildered the Eagles with bouncing kicks that they nightmarishly struggled to handle. On the season, Elliott is averaging 59.1 and 31.0. Opposing teams are averaging 68.8 and 29.0. Long story short, this means the Eagles are essentially losing two yards of field position for every kick.

The snap to foot times on placekicks were around 1.35 for the Eagles and closer to 1.20 for the Rams. I got the distinct impression that the Rams were absolutely determined to NOT have the Eagles block any of their attempts this year after losing the game last year on a blocked kick. Kudos to them, I guess. At any rate, this is one of the very few times where the Eagles kicking process was slower than their opposition.

Elliott made both of his field goal attempts from distances with an expectancy of about 1.40. On the season, he's now 4-of-4 from distances with an EV of about 2.68. This puts him +1.32 which translates to +3.96 points. His average attempt distance is a healthy 44.50, about three yards longer than the league average. His Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2288 which ranks twentieth in the league and is -0.38 STD from the mean. The league average is 2310. The rating of Eagles Opponents dropped to 2305, which would rank seventeenth and is -0.09 from the mean.

The Top Five kickers after four weeks were Folk (2396, +1.45); Fairbairn (2395, +1.43); McLaughlin (2393, +1.40); Reichard (2389, +1.33); and McPherson (2376, +1.11). The Bottom Five kickers were Zvada (2244, -1.12); Mevis (2243, -1.14); Smack (2223, -1.47); Stevens (2215, -1.61); and Borregales (2187, -2.08).

Other stuff:

• Superb gunner play by Kelee Ringo on the first punt of the game. Openfield tackle for no gain. He later had another very good play although his penalty for going out of bounds negated the effort. And he later made another tackle on a punt.

• I thought Rocco Underwood was a little erratic (not necessarily in an alarming fashion) with the placement of some of his snaps. There was one high one on a punt, and Mann had to reach a bit on a PAT.

• The Eagles had Mann hold the ball on their first kickoff but didn't do so again. I wonder why. Maybe the rain?

• Smael Mondon made a tackle on a kickoff.

• Britain Covey had one nice punt return of about fourteen yards and then had a superb return down the sideline for over forty yards. He's now ranked in the top five in average return. He's a really positive player on special teams.

• Darius Cooper continues to impress. He had a tackle on a punt.

• I want to rave about Britain Covey some more. Here's an example of how unselfish he is. On one Rams punt, he eschewed a fair catch with a defender nearby and squirmed for about two yards before getting swarmed. He simply doesn't care about his return numbers (in terms of average). He's willing to sacrifice numbers there just to help the Eagles gain a few yards.

• I realize I made a slight math mistake in last week's Bears game but no one will ever notice it so I'm not going to update it here. I fixed it in my own records.

Jaguars fiasco. A lot to unpack here. And I hate doing this one.

Braden Mann punted six times with an average of about 49.5 yards and 4.50 hangtime. I do these numbers off the TV broadcast so the final punt was difficult to interpret. I did the best I could. Two reached the 4.5 mark. Four were hit outside the numbers. Logan Cooke punted five times for the Jagwires. He averaged about 44.6 yards and 4.06 hangtime. Two of the five reached the 4.5 second mark. Two were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical day goes to Mann, putting his mark at 2-3 on the season.

On the season, Mann is now averaging about 48.0 yards and 4.47 hangtime with 54% at 4.5 seconds or more and 58% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging about 49.2 yards and 4.48 hangtime with 62% at 4.5 or more and 52% hit outside the numbers. Slight edge to the other team but pretty close to even.

The snap to foot times on punts were right around 2.0 for the Eagles. Jacksonville was around 2.2 for the most part. They had some issues which I'll talk about later.

Jake Elliott kicked off five times. The first was returned for a touchdown but was negated by offsetting penalties. I normally include data like that but in this case I couldn't find a way to make it work. So I ended up only using the other four kicks. Elliott averaged about 57.3 yards with an average subsequent spot of 36.2. Cam Little kicked off four times with an average of about 57.8 and 33.5.

On the season, Elliott is averaging 58.8 and 32.2. Opposing teams are averaging 60.1 and 32.5. And I realized that I had been carrying an error in this calculation for the past three weeks. It's correct now.

The snap to foot times on placekicks were slow-ish for both teams. Eagles were around 1.4. The Jags were around 1.5 or so. It varied. They had isssues.

Elliott made his only field goal attempt -- a presumed game-winner no less -- from a distance with an expectancy of about 66%. On the season he's now 5-of-5 from distances with an EV of about 3.35. This puts him +1.65 which equates to about 4.95 points. His average attempt distance is 45.2, much higher than the league average of 41.7. Elliot's Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2284, which ranks nineteenth in the league. That's -0.38 standard deviations from the mean. The league average rating is 2309. The rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2316, which would rank fourteenth. That's +0.10 STD from the mean.

After five weeks, the Top Five rated kickers are Fairbairn (2404, +1.44); Reichard (2402, +1.41); Folk (2401, +1.39); McLaughlin (2395, +1.30); and Myers (2385, +1.15). The Bottom Five kickers are Stevens (2221, -1.34); Zvada (2217, -1.40); Mevis (since released) (2210, -1.51); Smack (2190, -1.81); and Borregales (2189, -1.83).

Other stuff:

• Jeremiah Trotter Jr was ejected after the opening kickoff and I'm not sure why. There was a scuffle but it didn't look like any punches were thrown, so I don't understand it. Incidentally on the opening kickoff, the Eagles had Mann line up as a holder but then had him run off, presumably to somehow fool the Jags. Then on the re-kick, Mann held. And didn't hold the rest of the game. Weird.

• A.J. Epenesa made a tackle on a kickoff.

• Britain Covey had a good game returning punts. He had multiple returns of over ten yards including one of nineteen that was negated because of a penalty on Carson Steele.

• The Jags longsnapper was injured at the sideline during the first play of the game. They had to "get by" with a defensive lineman snapping for them the rest of the game. He had multiple high snaps on field goals/PATs that led to adventures from their holder. But kudos to their holder (Cooke) for getting the job done.

• Covey also had a very good kickoff return.

• Smael Mondon made a tackle on a kickoff.

• Kelee Ringo had a great tackle on another kickoff.

• Dameon Pierce had a pretty good kickoff return that was negated by a penalty on Darius Cooper.

• The snap by Rocco Underwood on the clutch go-ahead field goal by Jake Elliott was not a good one. Mann did a nice job of snagging the low snap and getting it placed.

• I want to talk about the decision to kick the ball "short" with eight seconds left in the game. I think it was a good decision. I suspect most fans don't feel that way but I believe they're being influenced by the result rather than the decision. With that little time left, the only realistic way the Jags can win is with a last second field goal. And not to be lost in the matter is that they have the best long distance kicker in NFL history. Cam Little has the longest FG ever, as well as a 70-yarder in a preseason game a year ago.

• If you kick it into the endzone and give the Jags the ball at the 35-yard line, you're giving them one play to try to get the ball to about midfield. And yes, they have no timeouts remaining and you can defend the sideline. So what would be the odds that the Jags could run a play that takes less than eight seconds and gets them roughly fifteen yards? I'm pretty sure it's NOT zero. I would suspect it's about a 1-in-20 shot. About five percent. There could be a roughing the passer penalty. There could be a relatively well defended pass at the sideline that is somehow completed. And more likely, I believe a well-executed "hook and ladder" play could get the requisite yardage. The Bills have run that play quite effectively recently for example. The odds aren't very good of course, but I think there was a chance of something weird happening. And I'd say that was around 5%.

• By kicking the ball off and forcing a return, you're forcing the Jags to make a big play. If you tackle them at an appropriate position, they'll be too far to kick a field goal and would have to get lucky on a Hail Mary from an extreme distance. I decided to look at recent data (since the start of the silly kickoff rules) to see how often an Eagles opponent has returned a kick to midfield. Of all kickoffs that did not put the ball at the touchback spot (in my data, when I list the starting spot as the 35, it's possible it was returned there and wasn't the result of a touchback), there were 138 instances. Of those, ONLY ONE was past midfield -- it went to the Eagles 43. There was another that was returned to the 48 (the spot where a 70-yard field goal attempt would be possible.) So basically two times out of nearly 140 times. That's less than 2%. Closer to 1%. I think it was the right call. Kick it deep. Make the tackle. Stop the Hail Mary. Win the game.

• Instead, the Eagles allowed the returner to get the ball to the Eagles 39 yard line to set up a 57-yard attempt. I can't say for sure who the culprits were but I would put it on Kelee Ringo, Jonathan Jones, and Arnold Ebiketie. Ringo got too far outside. Jones got spun around. And Ebiketie overran the play. Smael Mondon came close to making a diving tackle from the other side. And I suppose one could argue that Elliott could have done a better job of slowing up the returner, but that's a hard "ask" for a kicker.

• So, what were the odds that a 57-yard field goal would be made? Normally that's about a 44% kick, probably much less with an very shaky longsnapper who consistently made the holder have to reach extraordinarily high just to place it. HOWEVER, I was pretty CERTAIN that the kick would be made. Why? BECAUSE OTHER TEAMS DO NOT MISS REALLY LONG KICKS AGAINST THE EAGLES.

• I went through the records this week to verify this, and the data was alarming. And nauseating. The point at which a field goal becomes a 50-50 proposition is about about 55 yards. Anything further is less than 50%. Since 2010, opposing kickers have now attempted TWENTY TWO field goals from 56+ yards and successfully made SIXTEEN of them. The odds of a coin being flipped 22 times and having it come up heads (or tails) more than fifteen times is about 2.6%. But that implies a 50-50 coin. Based on the distances of those 22 kicks against the Eagles, the expectancy was about 36%. And the odds of something that happens 36% of the time happening 16 out of 22 times is about .05%.

• There is a formula I use to evaluate how a kicker is doing for a specific year. It involves percentage over expectancy per attempt. Last year the league leader was Pineiro at .692. The year before it was Folk at .610. Previous bests were .525, .534, .565, .745, .416, and .590 (Dicker, Gano, Tucker, Crosby, Tucker, and Bryant). Opposing kickers attempting field goals from 56+ yards since 2010 are at a rate of 1.086. Basically TWICE AS GOOD as the BEST kicker in the league. This would be like going up against someone TWICE as good as Babe Ruth. Like going up against a batter who hits about .600 and hits 100 home runs a year. That is what it's like when opposing teams try astronomical kicks against the Eagles. It's nauseating. So yes, I fully expected Little to make that kick. It was inevitable.

• End rant.

Even though the opening kickoff return TD was called back, I was pretty upset with Ringo's inability to use the sideline to prevent the TD. He just ran up behind the dude and then just pushed him 10 yards into the endzone when all he had to do was give him a little tap to go out of bounds.