13 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

I disagree that it was a guaranteed touchback. We'll just leave it at that.

Not only is it inside the 2 yard line where he fields it, he turns sideways to catch it. It was a 58 yard punt. The chances of that landing in the field of play and then bouncing straight up or backwards is next to nothing.

Question to the STs fans who follow this thread. Is it a wise move to sign Aubrey away from the Cowboys this Offseason?

12 hours ago, mattwill said:

Question to the STs fans who follow this thread. Is it a wise move to sign Aubrey away from the Cowboys this Offseason?

Wouldn't he be a restricted free agent? The Cowboys would match any offer.

9 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Wouldn't he be a restricted free agent? The Cowboys would match any offer.

You are right.

Chargers fiasco.

Braden Mann punted three times for the Eagles with an average of about 52.3 yards and 4.56 hangtime. Two were in the air for at least 4.5 seconds. All three were hit outside the numbers. J.K. Scott punted five times for the Chargers. He averaged about 50.8 yards and 4.92 hangtime with four reaching the 4.5 second mark and only two hit outside the numbers. The better statistical game goes to Scott (the considerably higher hangtime more than made up for the small deficit in distance), putting Mann's mark at 10-3 on the year.

Through thirteen games, Mann is averaging 49.1 yards and 4.55 hangtime with 62% at 4.5 seconds and 65% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging about 45.4 yards and 4.39 hangtime with 41% at 4.5 seconds and 45% hit outside the numbers. Significant advantage for the Eagles.

The snap to foot times on punts were about 2.0 for the Eagles and 2.10ish for the Chargers.

Jake Elliott kicked off seven times with an average of 59.3 yards and an average starting position of 29.6. Cameron Dicker punted off seven times for the Chargers. He averaged about 60.4 yards with a starting position of 31.4.

On the season, Elliott is averaging 59.1/28.5. Opposing kickers are averaging 60.4/28.2. The numbers are getting closer but the Eagles are still in a deficit position here.

The snap to foot times on placekicks were about the same for both teams (although I was unable to examine a bunch of them). Around 1.30 across the board.

Elliott made four of five field goal attempts from distances with an EV of about 3.62. On the season, he's now 16-of-21 from distances with an EV of about 14.6. This puts him +1.4 which equates to about 4.2 points above expectation. Elliott's average attempt distance is a healthy 44.6 (league average is around 40.6). His Elo Kicking Rating dropped a point to 2282 which ranks twenty-second in the league. That's -0.16 standard deviations from the mean. The league average is 2293. The rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2233, which would rank tenth. That's +0.57 STD from the mean. Opposing kickers just naturally kick well against the Eagles. It feels like it's been that way for decades. Especially on long kicks. Sigh.

The Top Five Kickers after fourteen weeks were Folk (2422, +1.84); Aubrey (2421, +1.83); Dicker (2409, +1.66); Boswell (2408, +1.64); McLaughlin (2386, +1.33). The Bottom Five Kickers were Ryland (2217, -1.09); Mevis (2216, -1.10); Grupe (2207, -1.23); Smyth-PS (2198, -1.36); and Moody (2163, -1.86).

Other stuff:

• Low snap from Cal Adomitis on the first Eagles punt. Kinda knee high. Not awful or anything but worth noting/observing. He was subsequently released but I don't think this was a performance based demotion. His time had simply run out since Charley Hughlett was now healthy. Kudos to Adomitis for doing an overall solid job for a couple of months. He could be someone who could get another look in the future. If not here, I expect him to play somewhere again.

• I thought the Chargers punter was a bit slow mechanically. He has kind of a long legged motion. If I were the Eagles I'd have tried to block those. They've also had some snapping issues this year.

• Kylen Granson had an impressive crossfield chase-down on punt coverage.

• Britain Covey had several very nice punt returns. I've always liked him.

• Moro Ojomo was flagged for a leverage penalty on a Chargers field goal which extended their drive. Ridiculous (not the call but the actual infraction). Fortunately for the Eagles the Chargers had to settle for a field goal anyway.

• Covey fumbled on a kick return and was lucky to recover it in a crowd.

• Andre Sam with a solid tackle on a kickoff.

• Smael Mondon with a tackle on a kickoff.

• Covey bobbled a punt at his own six yard line and somehow managed a good return out to the twenty-eight. He was also facemasked on the play with a penalty.

• I didn't like the idea of Will Shipley returning the kickoff with eight seconds left in regulation. Man, just take a knee there. You're NOT going to return that for a touchdown. The only team that's going to win there is the Chargers. There was an actual risk of a fumble which would have put the Chargers in position to win the game on a last-play field goal. The Eagles actually lost a game exactly like that in the '94 finale against the Bengals. That was Kotite's last game. The Bengals made two field goals in the final six seconds as I recall.

Raiders game. There wasn't a lot.

Braden Mann only punted once. He "averaged" about 37.0 yards and 3.58 hangtime. His one punt was hit outside the numbers. A.J. Cole punted five times for the Raiders. He didn't impress. He averaged about 42.4 yards and 3.92 hangtime. None reached the 4.5 second mark. Four were hit outside the numbers. Although Cole's performance was decidedly mediocre, he ended up having the better statistical game, putting Mann's mark at 10-4 on the year.

Through fourteen games, Mann is averaging 48.9 yards and 4.54 hangtime with 61% at 4.5 seconds or better and 66% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging 45.1 yards and 4.34 hangtime with 37% at 4.5 or better and 51% hit outside the numbers. Strong advantage Eagles.

The snap to foot times for both teams were kinda slow. Around 2.15. Maybe the weather had something to do with that.

Jake Elliott kicked off six times for the Eagles. He averaged about 58.8 yards with an average starting position of 29.5. Daniel Carlson kicked off to start the game and never saw the field again. He "averaged" 63.0 yards with a starting spot of 33.0.

On the season, Elliott is averaging 59.1 and 28.6. Opposing kickers are averaging 60.4 and 28.3. Slight disadvantage for the Eagles, although the numbers are tightening up.

The Eagles snap to foot times on place kicks were around 1.3. The Raiders never had the opportunity.

Elliott made his only field goal attempt from a distance with an EV of about 0.95. On the season he's now 17-of-22 from distances with an expectancy of about 15.5. This puts him plus 1.5, which means he's earned the Eagles about 4.5 points over expected value. (I should point out that the EV is based on 2000 era data...kickers have gotten better since then.) His average attempt distance is 43.8, which is more than three yards higher than the league average. Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2283, which ranks twenty-first in the league. That's -0.18 STD from the mean. The league average is now 2295. The rating of Eagles Opponents remains at 2333, which would rank tenth. That's +0.56 STD from the mean.

Through fifteen weeks the Top Five Kickers are Folk (2426, +1.93); Dicker (2414, +1.75); Boswell (2408, +1.66); Aubrey (2400, +1.54); and McLaughlin (2395, +1.47). It seems like it's been these same five guys all year long! The Bottom Five Kickers are Fitzgerald (2222, -1.07); Ryland (2217, -1.15); Smyth (2211, -1.23); Koo (subsequently released) (2198, -1.43); and Moody (2183, -1.65).

Other stuff:

• Charley Hughlett returned as the Eagles longsnapper. Not surprisingly, there were no issues whatsoever.

• Jake Elliott somehow missed the ball on his final kickoff. I think it took him a moment to realize that this wasn't going to be a "do over" situation per se. The play clock was still ticking and he had to get the ball kicked before the clock hit zero. So he stepped back and then whacked it.

• Sydney Brown made another stupid special teams play, this time with a block in the back foul on an Eagles punt return. It's become so commonplace for him to do crap like this. It's so disappointing to see him not develop as a reliable player. You expect more from an early third rounder. Sigh.

Commanders game. Some mistakes were made.

Braden Mann punted twice with an average of about 43.0 yards and 4.19 hangtime. One had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. One was hit outside the numbers. Tress Way punted five times for Washington. He averaged 43.8 yards and 4.26 hangtime . None reached the 4.5 mark. Two were hit outside the numbers. The statistical edge goes to way, putting Mann's mark at 10-5 on the year.

Through fifteen games, Mann is averaging 48.8 yards and 4.53 hangtime with 61% at 4.5 seconds or higher and 65% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging 45.0 yards and 4.34 hangtime with 34% reaching the 4.5 mark and 50% hit outside the numbers. Significant overall advantage to the Eagles. Though he has tapered off a bit of late, Mann is absolutely having a very, very good year.

The snap to foot times kinda favored Washington. They were right around the 2.0 mark (their third one was slower). One of Mann's punts was closer to 2.10. Whatever.

Jake Elliott kicked off five times. He averaged about 59.8 yards with an average subsequent starting position of 29.6. Jake Moody kicked off three times for the Commanders. He averaged 61.0 and 25.7, with one of those starting drives being their own due to a fumble recovery. On the season, Elliott is averaging 59.1 and 28.7. Opposing kickers are averaging 60.5 and 28.2. So the Eagles are "losing" about half a yard per kickoff. Not a lot but still not insiginificant.

The snap to foot times once again kinda favored Washington. They seemed to be around 1.30. The Eagles were sort of around 1.33. Maybe. It's hard to tell.

Elliott missed his only two official field goal attempts. He also missed a third which was negated because of an offside call. The expected value of those two kicks was about 1.33. On the season he's now 17-of-24 from distances with an EV of 16.9. This means he's +0.1 which translates to +0.3 points. This numbers has gone down considerably over the past few weeks. Not good. His average attempt distance is 44.1, which is considerably higher than the overall league average of 40.6.

Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating dropped to 2247 which ranks twenty-fifth in the league. That's -0.72 standard deviations from the mean. The league average is 229.5 The rating of Eagles Opponents remained steady at 2333 which would rank tenth. That's+0.56 STD from the mean.

The Top Five kickers are the same five that seemingly have been there all year, in varying orders. Folk (2427, +1.97); Dicker (2415, +1.79); Aubrey (2401, +1.58); McLaughlin (2399, +1.55); and Boswell (2398, +1.54). The Bottom Five kickers are Smyth (2231, -0.96); Mevis (2215, -1.20); Sauls-PS (2206, -1.34); Ryland (2205, -1.35); and Moody (2183, -1.68).

Other stuff:

• Will Shipley lost the ball on a fumble on the opening kickoff. This illustrates the point I was trying to make in the Chargers game when he returned the ball with seconds left in regulation. I felt then that that decision didn't make sense. (He should have quickly run out of bounds or taken a knee). Losing the ball on a fumble in that situation could have lost you the game on the spot. Thankfully this one happened with about 59 minutes and 50 seconds left so there was still a lot of time left to recover. But overall, a bad, bad play.

• There was a low snap on Washington's first field goal.

• The second Commanders kickoff was nearly to the exact same spot as the first kickoff. Weird.

• Sydney Brown made a superb play on an Eagles punt with an immediate tackle.

• Shipley had another bad play on a kickoff. He fielded the ball in the endzone and was prepared to take a knee which would put the ball at the thirty-five yard line. But he lost his balance, stumbled forward, and was forced to return it. He only made it to the nineteen. I wouldn't classify this as a "bad decision" because the decision ("dammit, now I HAVE TO RUN IT OUT!") was a good one. It was just sort of bad luck that he lost his balance.

• All three of Elliott's missed field goals were wide left.

• Shipley made a strong 1-on-1 tackle on the kickoff after the Eagles went ahead in the second half 14-10.

• The Eagles got away with a delay of game on the fourth quarter punt that Mann hurried and shanked. This was a weird play sequence all around.

• I was shocked and pleased that Washington punted with 6:44 left in the fourth quarter down by eleven points. Thank you indeed. I'm sure Cowboys fans were pissed at the time.

• I hated giving up the late touchdown which forced the Eagles to have to recover an onside kick with 1:10 left in the game. Fortunately the ball took a happy bounce and DeVonta Smith was able to haul it in without much difficulty.

• Washington got away

Special teams were the difference in today's game. Elliot was good. Mann was good. Covey was fine. And the blocked XP was huge.

Bills game in a downpour. Mostly good, although there was one awful play of significance.

Braden Mann punted seven times with an average of about 51.1 yards and 4.40 hangtime. Three reached the 4.5 second mark. Five were hit outside the numbers on the field, toward the sideline. Mitch Wishnowsky punted six times for the Bills. He averaged 41.8 yards and 4.66 hangtime. Five of the six reached the 4.5 second mark. Four of the six were hit outside the numbers. Mann's significant edge in distance outweighs the greater hangtime of Wishnowsky, so Mann gets credit for the theoretical 1-on-1 victory. This puts his mark at 11-5 on the year.

Through sixteen games, Mann is averaging 49.0 yards and 4.51 hangtime with 59% at 4.5 or more and 69% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging 44.7 yards and 4.37 hangtime with 39% at 4.5 or greater and 52% hit outside the numbers. This is a notable edge for the Eagles. I've been tracking this for well over thirty years and this is easily the best season the Eagles have ever had in comparison to their opponents. Historically the Eagles have had the worse of it in the punting game. I'm not even kidding when I say that they have almost never had better numbers than their opponents. So kudos to Mann for sure.

On the punt from the back of the endzone, the snap to foot time for the Eagles was under 1.6 seconds, which is remarkable. About a half second faster than many NFL punts. Mann was absolutely not going to have that punt blocked. The hangtime wasn't very good (sub 3.3) but he hit it almost fifty yards. There was one punt which was closer to 2.2 seconds (the snap seemed a bit off) but the rest were generally between 2.02 and 2.12 seconds. The Bills were generally between 2.05 and 2.12. So overall both teams were in the same range, excluding the hurried punt from the endzone.

Jake Elliott kicked off four times with an average of 62.0 yards and a resulting starting field position of 24.3. Michael Badgley kicked deep twice. He averaged about 58.0 and 29.0. On the season, Elliott is averaging 59.3 and 28.5 Opposing kickers are averaging 60.4 and 28.2. The numbers are almost evening out at this point.

The snap to foot times for the Eagles were about 1.35. The Bills were exceptionally slow on their only PAT. Almost 1.5 seconds. You might even get a kick blocked when you're that slow!

Elliott made his only two field goal attempts. The expected value of his two attempts was about 1.6. On the season, he's now 19-of-26 from distances with an EV of about 18.5. This puts him +0.5, which equates to +1.5 points. Elliott's average attempt distance is a hefty 43.6. The league average is about 40.6. Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2254, which ranks 25th in the league. That's -0.62 standard deviations from the mean. The league average is now at 2295. The rating of Eagles Opponents remains at 2333, which is +0.58 STD from the mean. That would rank twelfth in the league. Basically opposing kickers when kicking against the Eagles perform as one kicker who's performing at the level in the top third of the league. In other words, they just kick better when they're playing against us.

The Top Five Rated Kickers are Folk (2428, +2.02); Dicker (2400, +1.60); Aubrey (2397, +1.55); Myers (2387, +1.40); and Boswell (2385, +1.37). The Bottom Five/Six are Mevis/Borregales (2218, -1.16); Sauls-PS (2209, -1.20); Ryland (2205, -1.36); Karty (2197, -1.48); and Moody (2196, -1.50).

Other stuff:

• The Eagles were flagged for an illegal formation on the opening kickoff of the game. It's ridiculous.

• Questionable fair catch by Britain Covey on the Bills first punt of the game. He had about ten yards of space and would likely have been able to gain a decent chunk of yardage. He usually doesn't make that kind of mistake.

• Covey was subsequently interfered with on a later punt. Sydney Brown was obliterated by the Buffalo gunner who then tripped and fell into Covey. Thankfully the officials didn't pick up the flag, which I feared they might. Even though he was contacted by Brown, it was the Bills player who initiated all of the contact on the play.

• Later on Covey did NOT call for a fair catch near the sideline on a punt where it appeared he would. He ended up gaining about eight yards. That's what I would classify as "hidden yardage". Covey is sneaky good at plays like that.

• With only seconds left in the first half, the Eagles smartly tried to kick it out of the back of the endzone on a kickoff. They didn't want to risk the possibility of a big return. Unfortunately Elliott wasn't able to reach the back of the endzone. Fortunately the return wasn't especially effective and the half came to a quiet end.

• The Boneheaded Play of the Year Award goes to Cameron Latu, who inexplicably tried to down a punt which had come to a rest at the one yard line. He didn't need to do anything and the Bills drive would have started there. Yet he decided to "down" the ball and then proceeded to put a foot in the endzone, resulting in a touchback which cost the Eagles nineteen yards. He's one of our better special teams players so I'm not going to call for his head, but my goodness he has to be smarter than that!

• A couple of Hughlett punt snaps looked a little high and to the right. One if particular seemed to put the ball in harm's way as Mann had to drift to the right, very close to where the Bills rush was coming from.

• Jalen Carter made the play of the game when he skied to block the Bills first (and only in hindsight) PAT attempt. Buffalo's process on that play was remarkably slow and I have little doubt that that was part of the reason for their failure. That extra tenth of a second allowed Carter to get just a hair more penetration and perhaps a hair more elevation. Great play by Carter though.

• I thought Will Shipley looked far too tentative on one kick return. He really doesn't stand out very much as a kick returner.

• The onside kick with seconds left in the game took a very happy bounce right in the arms of Dallas Goedert. We were all able to breath a sigh of relief at that point.

• Hughlett was subsequently released and signed to the practice squad. I do not believe this was performance related. I think they just needed to create a roster spot for an extra offensive lineman for the final game of the regular season. With the intention to "rest the starters" they needed more bodies on the offensive line.

Does our Punter still have a right leg?? Or did it fall off by now??

🫣😎

Season finale.

Braden Mann punted three times with an average of 38.0 yards and 4.43 hangtime. Two reached the 4.5 mark. One was hit outside the numbers on the field. Tress Way punted three times for the Commanders. He averaged 48.0 yards and 4.45 hangtime with none reaching the 4.5 mark and none hit outside the numbers. The better statistical game goes to Way, putting Mann's mark at 11-6 on the year.

On the season, Mann averaged 48.6 yards (not the "official" NFL stats but the actual true distance with rolls not counting) and 4.51 hangtime with 59% reaching the 4.5 second mark and 64% hit outside the numbers. Eagles Opponents averaged 44.8 yards and 4.37 hangtime with 37% at 4.5 and 49% hit outside the numbers. This is one phase of special teams where the Eagles definitely had the advantage.

Touch to toe times on punts were unremarkable. Right around 2.0 seconds for both teams. No issues. No complaints.

Jake Elliott kicked off four times. He averaged about 70.5 yards with an average starting spot of 32.8. Jake Moody kicked off four times for Washington. He averaged 62.0 yards and 34.3. On the season, Elliott averaged about 59.8 yards and 28.7. Opponents averaged about 60.5 and 28.6. For the most part, I would say the kickoff game this year was a "neutral" outcome for the Eagles. They didn't give up big returns regularly but they also didn't generate too much on their own.

The snap to foot times on placekicks were about 1.3 to 1.35 for the Eagles. Washington was around the same, except for one which was around 1.22.

Jake Elliott made his only field goal attempt from a distance with an expected value (based on what kickers were making at the turn of this century) of 0.82. On the season, he was 20-of-27 from distances with an EV of 19.3. This puts him +0.7, which equates to +2.1 points earned. His average attempt distance was 43.4 yards, much higher than the league average of 40.6. Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating is now 2257, which ranks twenty-fifth in the league. That's -0.64 STD from the mean. The league average is 2296. The rating of Eagles Opponents dropped to 2318, which would rank sixteenth. That's +0.33 STD from the mean.

The final regular season ratings saw the following as the Top Five Kickers. Folk (2428, +1.98); Dicker (2400, +1.56); Boswell (2393, +1.46); Aubrey (2380, +1.26); and Fairbairn (2377, +1.21). The Bottom Five Kickers were Fitzgerald/Ryland (2224, -1.09); Sauls-PS (2221, -1.13); Borregales (2212, -1.27); Karty (2197, -1.49); and Moody (2196, -1.66).

Other stuff:

• For the first time this year, the Eagles intentionally tried to kick the ball deep on kickoffs rather than place the ball short to force returns. I presume this was because the backups were playing regularly so there was no need to have them also have to cover kicks. Saves some wear and tear and possibly prevents injuries. It made sense.

• It was weird but the the placekick that Washington got off quickly (I clocked it at 1.22 seconds from the snap to the foot) was the long field goal at the end of the half. Usually it's the long kicks that end up being slower mechanically. I was surprised.

• Britain Covey made a poor decision on a punt. Instead of fielding it, he let it bounce at the sixteen. The ball bounced toward the goal line and was rescued by a Washington player before being downed at the nine yard line. This resulted in a net loss of seven yards...and even more if you consider that Covey would have had room to gain positive yards on the return.

• Grant Calcaterra was flagged for a false start on a punt, turning a fourth and one into a fourth and six.

• Kelee Ringo made an excellent 1-on-1 tackle on a punt to bring the returner down immediately. It's a good thing that he occasionally makes standout plays on special teams because at this point it doesn't look like he's ever going to amount to much as a cover corner. He was brutal at times.