Special Teams blog

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

On 9/18/2019 at 8:29 PM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Falcons game.

Cameron Johnston punted four times, with an average of about 47.2 yards and 4.20 hangtime. Only one had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Three of the four were hit outside the numbers. The injured Matt Bosher punted three times for the Falcons. He averaged about 39.0 yards and 4.50 hangtime. Only one had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. None were hit outside the numbers. All were hit to the middle of the field. I think it was all Bosher could do to just punt the ball, let alone worry about aiming it. The better statistical game goes to Johnston, the first time for him this year. On the season, he's averaging about 49.0 yards and 4.32 hangtime, with 28% reaching the 4.5 mark and 71% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging about 48.4 yards and 4.58 hangtime, with 67% reaching the 4.5 mark and only 22% hit outside the numbers. Johnston tended to hit the ball to the middle of the field a lot last year, so this is sort of a departure thus far, his aiming more towards the sideline.

The Eagles were quicker with their punts than the Falcons were. They were about 1.9 from snap to foot, while the Falcons were closer to 2.0 on the one punt I was able to fully observe.

Jake Elliott kicked off four times with an average of about 74.5 yards (pretty much the back of the endzone) and 4.18 hangtime. Bosher usually kicks off for the Falcons because the aging Matt Bryant isn't any good at it anymore. But Bryant was forced into kickoff duties because of Bosher's injuries. It was obvious why he doesn't do it regularly anymore. He was pretty bad. He averaged only about 59.8 yards (around the five yard line) with only 3.62 hangtime. He gave the Eagles very returnable kicks.

The Eagles were also quicker on their placekicks than the Falcons were. Around 1.20 from snap to foot compared to around 1.35. Bryant is actually pretty deliberate in his old age.

Elliott made both of his field goal attempts, from distances where he would be expected to make about 1.67. On the season, he's three of three from distances where he would be expected to make about 2.64. His average attempt distance is only 32.3 yards, which is about a 90% kick based on the expectancies I use. (I use the norms from around 2000. Kickers are actually a little more accurate than they were in those days). Elliott's Elo rating improved to 2274, which now ranks 13th in the league. The rating of "Eagles Opponents" dropped to 2238, which would rank 21st in the league. The league average is 2254. The standard is 2200. The Top Five kickers are Tucker (2405), Bryant (2370), Gould (2363), Lutz (2317), and Zuerlein (2314). The Bottom Five are Bailey (2193), Gay (2191), Gonzalez (2190), Long (2171), and Ficken (2160). I didn't include Long in the list a week ago because he's actually a punter who was forced into duty because of an injury. But the Chargers kept him on for the week, and he did his best Mike Michel (look him up) impersonation, leading to a Chargers loss. So I included him this week.

Other stuff:

* Corey Clement ruined the Eagles second half by fumbling the second half kickoff, leading almost directly to a Falcons touchdown which put them up by two scores. Brutal play. Brutal change of momentum. 

* Mack Hollins downed a punt at the one yard line. Actually he threw it out of bounds. Nice play. 

* As an aside, I wonder what the stats are regarding opponents drives that begin inside the ten yard line. I have a hunch they make an initial first down about 90% of the time. Over the years, I'm talking about. It's maddeningly frustrating how the Eagles can never seem to stop a team when they're pinned back like that. Instead, it seems like three plays later they're always at the twenty. Sigh.

* Rick Lovato's first punt snap was a bit low. Johnston had to reach down to snag it.

* Miles Sanders returned kickoffs after Clement's fumble and injury. He was better than Clement. I still get the "I'm going to fumble" vibe from him, however.

* Darren Sproles was hit by a Falcons player after a fair catch but it was a good "no call" because he was actually blocked into him. 

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

On 9/25/2019 at 6:06 PM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Lions game.

Cameron Johnston punted three times with an average of about 48.7 yards and 4.43 hangtime. Two of the three had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Two of the three punts were hit outside the numbers. Sam Martin punted five times for the Lions with an average of about 44.6 yards and 4.65 hangtime. Three of the five had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Three of the five were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical game goes to Johnston for the second time in three games. On the season, Johnston is averaging about 48.9 yards and 4.36 hangtime with 40% reaching the 4.5 second mark and 70% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging about 47.1 yards and 4.61 hangtime with 64% reaching the 4.5 second mark and 36% hit outside the numbers. So....the Eagles are hitting it farther and more towards the sidelines whereas opponents are hitting it higher and more toward the middle of the field.

The snap to foot times on punts once again favored the Eagles. That will probably be the norm all season. They were around 1.9 seconds. The Lions were a bit slow, certainly slower than the Redskins and Falcons were. They were around 2.0 seconds.

Kickoffs. Jake Elliott averaged about 71.4 yards and 3.95 hangtime on his five kickoffs. Sam Martin averaged about 65.9 yards and 4.15 hangtime on his seven kickoffs, one of which was a re-kick after the Lions were flagged for an illegal formation. On the season, Elliott is averaging about 70.7 yards and 4.13 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 66.3 yards and 4.02 hangtime. Obvious better distance and hangtime for the Eagles. (The opponents numbers are heavily influenced by the injury to the Falcons regular kickoff guy.)

The Eagles place kicks were quicker than the Lions. They were around 1.20 seconds. Detroit was closer to around 1.35 seconds. Their final kick, the blocked one, was more like 1.4 seconds. That's around the time where you can start to get kicks blocked. Going into the game, I might have suggested that the Lions might be vulnerable to a block on special teams, either on punts or FGs. I didn't say that because I didn't know at the time that the Lions were a bit slower than usual. But they are/were. So having a blocked kick isn't a surprise.

Elliott made his only field goal, from a distance where the expectancy was around 96%. On the season, he's now 4-of-4 from distances where he would be expected to make about 3.6 of them. His average attempt distance is only 30.5 yards. His Elo rating nudged forward slightly to 2275, which ranks tied for 11th in the league. The league average is now at 2252. The rating of Eagles Opponents dropped to 2223, which would rank 25th in the league. The Top Five kickers are Tucker (2406), Bryant (2371), Gould (2363), Lambo (2317), and Lutz (2317). The Bottom Five are Gonzalez (2201), Maher (2193), Gay (2190), Long (2181), and Ficken (2160).

Other stuff:

* The Eagles allowed a kick return for a touchdown, a play which could be argued led to the Lions victory. Rudy Ford missed a tackle at around the twenty yard line. In addition to that gaffe, several Eagles got too deep too quickly. Rodney McLeod's pursuit was a bit loafish, and Josh Sweat allowed himself to be walled off on the sideline.

* As mentioned previously, Malcolm Jenkins blocked a field goal. Unfortunately the ball didn't take a Herm Edwards/Matt Ware bounce so Rasul Douglas had to wait a tick to pick it up. And Jenkins got called for a block in the back. It looked like an accurate call. Stupid play on his part.

* The Lions got away with one of the most flagrant facemask infractions of all time. (Not a good job of blocking by Johnathan Cyprien on the play, by the way.) Miles Sanders had his helmet literally ripped off without a flag being thrown. Embarrassing job by the referee there.

* Sanders returned kicks this week and didn't really show much. 

* Johnston had a phenomenal punt that landed at the two yard line and took a sideways bounce out of bounds. The Lions began the drive at that spot, and of course made a first down before punting. As mentioned previously, the Eagles never seem able to force an immediate punt after pinning an opponent deep. It's really quite annoying.

* Johnston had to make a tackle on one of his punts. Not a good play by his teammates there.

* The Lions twice punted the ball into the endzone for touchbacks late in the game. Huge break for the Eagles there.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

On 10/3/2019 at 2:22 PM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Packers game.

Cameron Johnston punted four times, with an average distance of 41.8 yards (from the line of scrimmage to where the ball actually went) and about 4.24 hangtime. Three of the four punts were hit outside the numbers. Only one of the four had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. J.K Scott punted twice for the Packers. He averaged about 41.5 yards and 4.84 hangtime. Both were over 4.5 seconds. One was outside the numbers, while the other was not. The better statistical game goes to Scott, putting Johnston's theoretical record at 2-2 on the season.

On the season, Johnston is averaging about 46.9 yards and 4.32 hangtime with 36% reaching the 4.5 second mark and 71% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging about 46.4 yards and 4.63 hangtime with 69% reaching the 4.5 second mark and 38% hit outside the number. So opponents are hitting the ball just as far but noticeably higher and much more to the middle of the field.

The Eagles were definitely quicker with their punting mechanics than the Packers were. Around 1.9 seconds from Lovato's snap until Johnston's foot hit the ball. The Packers were right around 2.0 seconds.

The Eagles kicked off six times. The sixth kickoff was a low line drive that didn't have enough height to warrant inclusion in the records. The second kickoff was difficult to judge. As far as I can tell, Elliott averaged about 70.8 yards and 3.76 hangtime on the 'real' kickoffs. Definitely much lower than usual. Mason Crosby kicked off six times for the Packers. Only four were hit well enough to count. One was hit out of bounds. Another was a squib at the end of the first half. He averaged about 68.3 yards and 3.85 seconds. On the season, the Eagles (Elliott) are averaging about 70.7 yards and 4.04 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 66.7 yards and 3.98 hangtime.

Once again, the Eagles were quicker on their place kicks than the Packers. Around 1.20 compared to 1.25-to-1.30 (with one closer to 1.4). The Packers also got away with a relatively poor snap on one of their kicks.

Elliott attempted no field goals, so his numbers remain the same as last week. His Elo rating of 2275 ranks tied for ninth in the league. The league average is currently (after four weeks) at 2252. The rating of Eagles Opponents comes in at 2226, which would rank 24th. The current Top Five kickers are Tucker (who else?) (2407), Gould (2363), Bryant (2350), Lutz (2324), and Lambo (2323). The Bottom Five are Bailey (2203), Sanders (2196), Maher (2195), Gonzalez (2170), and Ficken (2160). Ficken plays for the Jets, so this could be a good week for the Eagles.

Other stuff:

* Miles Sanders had a big kickoff return to jump start the Eagles resurgence after a disappointing first few minutes. Goedert and Gerry had big blocks to spring him, and a group of players (Cyprien being the most notable in my view) cleared out the second wave. Huge play.

* Massive hit by Rudy Ford on the Eagles first punt of the game. It should have been flagged for a helmet-to-helmet hit. I gotta say, Ford has been as advertised when the acquired him. The dude flies down the field with a purpose and makes things happen. 

* Eagles were flagged for an illegal formation on one of their kickoffs. Silly.

* Sanders fielding the squib kick at the end of the first half was a but unnerving, especially when he briefly bobbled the ball initially. He still scares me with ball security. 

* I guess it's a special teams play of sorts. The Eagles went for two rather than kick for one after going up 27-20. It didn't work. It's an understandable strategy though.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

On 10/11/2019 at 2:00 PM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Jets game.

Cameron Johnston punted five times. He averaged about 44.6 yards and 4.40 hangtime. Two of the five had at least 4.5 hangtime. Four of the five were hit outside the numbers. Lachlan Edwards punted eight times for the Jets. He averaged about 47.4 yards and 4.14 hangtime. None of his punts reached the 4.5 second mark. Four were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical game goes to Johnston, putting his mark at 3-2 on the season.

For the season, Johnston is averaging about 46.3 yards and 4.34 hangtime, with 37% of his punts reaching the 4.5 second mark and 74% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging about 46.7 yards and 4.47 hangtime, with 46% reaching the 4.5 second mark and 42% hit outside the numbers.

The Eagles were again quicker than their opponents were on punts. From snap to foot about 1.85 to 1.90 seconds. The Jets were in the 1.95 to 2.0 second range, except for the one punt from the back of the endzone. On that one, they were incredibly quick at around 1.65 seconds. Really had to hurry that one.

Kickoffs. Jake Elliott kicked off six times. He averaged about 72.3 yards and 3.94 hangtime. Sam Ficken kicked off twice for the Jets with an average of about 66.5 yards and 4.34 hangtime. On the season, Elliott is averaging about 71.1 yards and 4.01 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 66.6 yards and 4.02 hangtime.

The Eagles were a little quicker than the Jets on their place kicks. Around 1.20 to 1.25. The Jets were at around 1.28 on their long field goal attempt. Their snap was a little off on that one.

Elliott made his only field goal attempt from a distance where the expectancy was about .94. On the season, he's 5-of-5 from distances with an expectancy of about 4.54. So he's earned the Eagles about 1.4 points above expectancy. His average attempt distance is only 30 yards. Elliott's Elo rating nudged up slightly to 2276, which now ranks ninth in the league. The rating of Eagles Opponents dropped to 2213 with the 55-yard miss. That rating would rank 28th in the league. So really, the Eagles have been pretty fortunate the past couple of years with regard to opponents. For years it seemed like they never missed but now they're missing at a rate even worse than the average. The league average is currently at 2245. The Top Five kickers are Tucker (2411), Bryant (2351), Lambo (2327), Lutz (2325), and Prater (2309). The Bottom Five are McLaughlin (2193), Maher (2165), Santos (2161), Gonzalez (2155), and Ficken (2149). Santos was subsequently released.

Other stuff:

* I'm not sure how evident it was watching the game on television, but the Eagles were a joke on the opening kickoff. They couldn't get lined up properly. Guys kept running around from one side to the other, only to realize they were still not in the right spot. And then they'd switch it again. Laughable. On the opening play of the game too! I think the only reason they didn't get a delay of the game penalty was because the ball blew off the tee. It was embarrassingly comical. Not good.

* The Eagles only had ten men on the field when the Jets were lining up for their 55-yard field goal. That was another joke. Again, they got lucky that the Jets didn't know what the hell they were doing too and called a timeout.

* Josh Sweat made a diving tackle on one kickoff return. He's been catching my eye a bit on special teams this year. Kudos to him.

* Darren Sproles allowed a punt to hit the ground and roll for an additional sixteen yards. This was on the Jets punt from out of their endzone. Huge flip of field position on that play. The punt only had about 3.3 hangtime, so it would have been a challenge to scurry up to get it. But damn, that's a play you have to make.

* I think Cameron Johnston is getting better this year at directional kicking towards the sidelines. He did a very good job on a couple of his kicks pinning the Jets deep against their goal line.

* Nate Gerry made a nice tackle on a kickoff.

* Corey Clement came in to return punts after Sproles got hurt. That play didn't turn out so well. Thinking that the ball had struck an Eagles player, he leaped up to try to snag on, only to bat it away and allow the Jets to return it. Frankly, I don't think the ball even hit the Eagles player in the first place. The television coverage was kind of poor. But the other player didn't react like it hit him. Also, I'm not sure that Clement needed to jump up to try to field that ball. Anyway, a brutal play. And that's back-to-back turnovers by the Eagles on plays where Clement was the primary return man.

* Nelson Agholor came in after Clement to return punts and didn't look particularly good. Way too much sideways running. That kind of stuff works in your back yard when you're a kid.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

On 10/17/2019 at 2:30 PM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Vikings game.

Cameron Johnston punted three times with an average of about 43.7 yards and 4.63 hangtime. All three of his punts had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds, and all three were hit outside the numbers. Britton Colquitt somehow punted three times for the Vikings (I say "somehow" because it sure seemed like the Vikings could move the ball at will). He averaged about 41.3 yards and 4.53 hangtime. Two of the three had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Only one of the three were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical day goes to Johnston, putting his mark at 4-2 in his theoretical battle with opposing punters.

On the season, Johnston is averaging about 45.9 yards and 4.38 hangtime, with 45% at 4.5 seconds or more and 77% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging about 46.1 yards and 4.48 hangtime, with 48% reaching the 4.5 second mark and 41% hit outside the numbers.

Once again the Eagles were quicker with their punting game than their opponents were. The Lovato/Johnston process was right around 1.85 seconds. The Vikings guys were right around 2.0 seconds. 

It was a great day for kicking off. Jake Elliott kicked off five times (the last one was difficult to judge) with an average of about 74.0 yards and 4.26 hangtime. Dan Bailey kicked off seven times for the Vikings. He averaged about 69.0 yards with an amazing 4.48 hangtime. On the season, Elliott is averaging about 71.6 yards and 4.05 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 67.2 yards and 4.13 hangtime. These numbers of course only reflect 'real' kickoffs, not squibs and mis-hits.

Naturally the Eagles were quicker than their opponents were on place kicks. They were right around 1.25 seconds. Minnesota was more like 1.32 or so on theirs. A little more deliberate.

Elliott made both of his field goal attempts from distances where the expectancy was around 1.35. On the season he's now 7-of-7 from distances where he would be expected to make about 5.9. So he's "earned" the Eagles about 3.3 points more than expected. His average distance is only about 34.7 yards. Elliott's Elo Rating improved to a career best 2288, which now ranks 8th in the league. The current league average is 2246. (It's been an uncharacteristically poor year for kicking -- only 80% whereas it's been consistently around 84-85% over the past five seasons.) The rating of Eagles Opponents is now at 2217, which would rank 28th in the league.  The Top Five kickers are Tucker (2414), Bryant (2355), Lutz (2330), Lambo (2328), and Prater (2327). The Bottom Five are Parkey (2185), McLaughlin (2179), Maher (2178), Gonzalez (2161), and Ficken (2154). Tucker is so amazing, isn't he?

Other stuff:

* There is a perception that Pederson often does tricky things, but prior to the Vikings game, the Eagles had never run a single trick play on special teams under his leadership. The failed attempt was their first. It didn't work. It might have if Elliott had thrown the ball the instant he got it. Once he hesitated, it was foiled. Oh well. I don't fault the decision.

* Boston Scott returned punts in the absence of Darren Sproles. On one punt, he smartly came up to field a short kick. Good job. In general, I thought he looked good. Good form fielding the ball.

* Rudy Ford got nailed for holding on the first kick return of the game, backing the Eagles up near their goal line.

* Miles Sanders muffed a kickoff in the endzone. Luckily the ball didn't bounce forward and he at least showed good judgment in calmly downing it for a touchback. But his ball security still looks like an issue to me. I'm afraid -- and I "predict" -- that he's going to cough the ball up at some point later this year. We can only hope that it isn't a costly mistake.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

On 10/25/2019 at 2:07 PM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Cowboys debacle.

Cameron Johnston punted three times with an average of about 50.3 yards and 4.30 seconds. One had a hangtime of at least 4.5. One was hit outside the numbers. Chris Jones punted three times for the Cowboys. He averaged about 42.7 yards and 4.34 hangtime. None of his punts reached the 4.5 mark. Two of the three were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical game goes to Johnston, putting his mark at 5-2 on the season. On the season, Johnston is averaging about 46.4 yards and 4.37 hangtime, with 44% reaching the 4.5 second mark and 72% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging about 45.8 yards and 4.46 hangtime with 43% with at least 4.5 hangtime and the same 43% hit outside the numbers. So...more distance for the Eagles and much more towards the sidelines but with a little less hangtime.

The Cowboys were the first team this year to actually be as quick or quicker than the Eagles on their punts. Looked to me like they were doing about 1.80 to 1.85 from snap to foot on their punt plays. I got the Eagles a little slower than that. One punt was impossible to time, however. 

Kickoffs. Jake Elliott only kicked off three times. He averaged about 72.7 yards and 4.28 hangtime. Brett Maher kicked off seven times for the Cowboys with an average of about 69.4 yards and 4.01 hangtime. On the season, Elliott is averaging about 71.7 yards and 4.07 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 676 yards and 4.10 hangtime. So...more distance for the Eagles but with a little less height.

The Eagles were very quick on the placekicks. Sub 1.20 times. Dallas was more deliberate. I'd put them at around 1.3 to 1.35, with at least one quicker than that. But definitely slower than the Eagles.

Elliott made his only field goal attempt from a distance where the expectancy is about 83%. On the season, he's now a perfect 8 of 8 from distances where he would be expected to make about 6.72. So he's basically a "plus" 3.9 points for the Eagles on the season. His average attempt distance is 35.1 yards. His Elo kicking rating is now at a career high of 2291, which ranks 7th in the league. The rating of "Eagles Opponents" improved to 2238, which would rank 20th. The league average is 2245. The Top Five kickers are Tucker (2415); Bryant (2341); Lambo (2332); Prater (2331), and Lutz/Zuerlein (2294). The Bottom Five are Sanders (2200); Parkey (2192); McLaughlin (2191); Gonzalez (2174); and Ficken (2154). 

Other stuff:

* Did anyone ever doubt Maher was going to make that 63 yarder at the end of the half? I sure didn't. Incidentally, the Eagles didn't really put on much of an effort on that play. There really isn't much of a downside in attempting to block it. (Yeah, okay, maybe you rough the kicker and give them a shorter attempt.) You may as well try to block a kick and return it for a touchdown. Heck, the 49ers did that on the last play of the first half against the Eagles about fifteen years ago. I actually think the Giants did the same thing that same year. But the Eagles basically just stood there and watched. I didn't care for that.

* Grugier-Hill got flagged for holding on the first kickoff return (score was already 7-0) by Sanders. The penalty backed the Eagles up for the next drive. Bad.

* On Sanders next return, he hesitated in the endzone and was stopped at the twelve. Another bad play. That was two straight series where special teams put the offense in a field position hole. (They did drive the length of the field for a touchdown however.)

* Boston Scott had a real good punt return called back because of a block in the back against Rudy Ford. For the most part, I'm liking what I'm seeing from Scott. He has some make you miss ability and he looks smooth catching the ball. 

* Craig James and Alex Singleton combined on a punt coverage tackle.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

On 11/1/2019 at 11:02 AM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Bills game. Some interesting things. It was extremely windy, which had a huge impact.

Cameron Johnston punted four times. He averaged about 41.8 yards of true distance with 3.83 hangtime. Only one punt had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Two of the four were hit outside the numbers. Corey Bojorquez punted six times for the Bills with an average of about 39.2 yards and 4.33 hangtime. Three of the six had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Three of the six were hit outside the numbers. The better stats go to the Bills guy, putting Johnston's mark at 5-3 at the halfway point of the season.

On the season, Johnston is averaging about 45.8 yards and 4.30 hangtime with 41% of his punts in the air for at least 4.5 seconds and 69% hit outside the numbers. (Last year, the Eagles punted towards the middle of the field a LOT. This year, they're aiming for the sidelines a LOT more frequently.) Opponents are averaging about 44.7 yards and 4.44 hangtime, with 44% reaching the 4.5 second mark and 44% hit outside the numbers on the field.

There was a new development with Johnston's punting in this game. On three of his four punts, he hesitated slightly before punting. It appeared deliberate, as a way of allowing the coverage guys to get a head start. This was something that Vermeil sometimes did with Max Runager (RIP) back in the early eighties. The problem is, the interior linemen have to wait too, or else they run the risk of being downfield too early. Anyway, the Eagles snap to foot times on punts was a bit slower than usual in this game. On the first punt, it was in the 1.95 second range, which is a tad slower than their normal process. On the three subsequent punts, it was more like 2.25, 2.25, and 2.05 seconds because of the Johnston hesitation. Buffalo's times were adequate, but hardly fast. They were right around 1.95 to 2.00 for the most part, though one of them (their one punt from inside Eagles territory) was much quicker. Their snapper looked good to me. Their punter seemed a slight bit deliberate.

Kickoffs. Both teams were forced one time to kick off from the twenty due to major penalties on their PAT plays. Jake Elliott kicked off six times but the final kickoff was a squib. His five "real" kickoffs averaged about 76.4 yards (out of the back of the endzone, due to the wind) with 4.14 hangtime. Steven Hauschka averaged about 70.5 yards and 3.88 hangtime on his two real kickoffs. His other kickoff was a low line drive down the middle. On the season, Elliott is averaging about 72.3 yards and 4.08 hangtime. (Excellent distance, by the way). Opponents are averaging about 67.8 yards and 4.09 hangtime.

The Eagles place kicks were roughly in the 1.3 range. They're usually a tad quicker than that. Buffalo was kinda slow. Around 1.42 or so. Hauschka also has a reputation for being a line drive kicker. So when you combine that with the slow timing, it makes sense that they would have a kick blocked. (I even considered -- but didn't do it -- suggesting in advance a week ago that the Eagles might be able to block a kick of theirs.)

Though he missed his first XP of the season, Elliott made his only field goal on the day, from a distance where the expectancy would be about 84%. On the season, he's now 9-of-9 from distances where he'd be expected to make about 7.6 of them. So he's earned the team about 4.2 points (1.4 times 3) on the season. His average attempt distance is 35.3 yards. His current Elo Kicking Rating is at 2293, which ranks sixth in the league. The rating of Eagles Opponent ranks 2223, which ranks 26th in the league. The league average is at 2242 (going down...kicking hasn't been as good this year as it has been the previous five or six or seven seasons). The standard is 2200. The current Top Five kickers are Tucker (2415), Lambo (2336), Prater (2320), Bryant (2311), and Zuerlein (2294). Bryant was subsequently released by the Falcons. The Bottom Five kickers are Gonzalez (2189), Pineiro (2187), Nugent (2185), McLaughlin (2173), and Ficken (2154). Nugent was subsequently released by the Patriots. I saw that coming a month ago when they signed him.

Other stuff:

* Teams had to consistently use holders on their kickoffs because of the wind. It was that bad.

* Lovato's snap on the Eagles field goal was definitely off target. Johnston had to reach to his right to snag it before moving it back to the ground. Might explain why their timing was a bit slower than usual.

* T.J. Edwards impressed on one kickoff coverage play. Very good diving effort to get into the tackle.

* Derek Barnett blocked a Buffalo PAT. The Eagles might have been able to score two points on the play (terrible camera work by Fox, by the way) if Rasul Douglas had been able to field the ball on a bounce. Instead, it bounded away and that ended that. Oh so close.

* Boston Scott came up hard to field a punt, only to fumble it when he was tackled. Sigh.

* Mack Hollins was flagged for running into the punter.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

On 11/2/2019 at 12:07 AM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

One other point about the Bills game that I neglected to mention. Actually it's something I didn't even notice til I re-watched the game.

On their final extra point, the Eagles put the ball on the right hash mark for Elliott. Prior to this year, the Eagles ALWAYS put the ball dead center and had their kicker aim down the middle. This year, they've been consistently putting the ball on the left hash mark so as to compensate for Elliott's sometimes tendency of having his kicks sail to the right. But in this instance they went the opposite way. Obviously this was a "wind thing". 

Figured it was worth a quick commment.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

On 11/8/2019 at 2:07 PM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Bears game.

Cameron Johnston punted five times with an average of about 47.2 yards and 4.10 hangtime. Only one (barely) topped 4.5 seconds. Two were hit to the numbers, meaning three were hit to the middle of the field. Pat O'Donnell punted eight times for the Bears. He averaged about 44.3 yards and 4.45 hangtime. Three of his eight had at least 4.5 hangtime. Only two were hit outside the numbers, meaning that six were hit to the middle of the field. The better statistical game, according to my formula, goes to the O'Donnell, putting Johnston's mark at 5-4 this year in his theoretical 1-on-1 battle with the opposing punter.

On the season, Johnston is averaging about 46.0 yards and 4.27 hangtime with 38% of his punts topping 4.5 seconds and 65% hit to the numbers or wider. Opponents are averaging about 44.6 yards and 4.44 hangtime, with 43% reaching the 4.5 second mark and 41% hit outside the numbers. So...the Eagles are hitting the ball farther and more towards the sidelines but opponents are hitting them a bit higher.

It looked to me like the Eagles were a tad slower on their punting mechanics than usual (but were still the faster of the two teams). The first one clocked in at under 1.9 seconds but the others were more around 2.0 seconds. In fact, the last one seemed closer to 2.10 seconds. The Bears were pretty much right around 2.0 the entire game.

Kickoffs were odd. Jake Elliott kicked off six times but only three met the criteria to be included in the data. His opening kickoff was too short. His final kickoff was an intentional squib. and his next-to-last kickoff was a very low line drive that didn't have enough hangtime. His viable kickoffs averaged about 66.0 yards and 3.83 hangtime. Eddy Pineiro kicked off three times for the Bears with an average of about 66.0 yards and 4.23 hangtime. So...much more height on the Bears kickoffs than the Eagles kickoffs. 

On the season, the Eagles (Elliott) are averaging about 71.9 yards and 4.07 hangtime on kickoffs while opponents are averaging about 67.7 yards and 4.10 hangtime. Advantage Eagles.

The Eagles place kicks were pretty much right around 1.20 to 1.25 seconds, which is their norm. It's also a good time. The Bears were even quicker, around 1.15, on their extra points. That's the first time in recent memory that I've seen an opposing team legitimately quicker than the Eagles. Kudos to them, I guess.

Elliott missed a PAT (badly) but made all three of his field goal attempts from distances where the expectancy was about 2.71. On the season, he's now at 12-of-12 from distances where he would be expected to make about 10.28. So he's plus 1.72 which means he's "earned" the Eagles about 5.16 points above expectation. His average attempt distance is at only 34.3 yards. (League averages tend to hover around 38 yards). Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating is now at an all time high of 2297, which ranks fourth in the league. The rating of Eagles Opponents is at 2223, which would rank 24th. The current league average is at 2239, which is the lowest it's been since before 2014, when I started tracking this stuff. The current Top Five kickers are Tucker (2416), Lambo (2337), Prater (2320), Elliott (2297), and Zuerlein (2294). The Bottom Five are Pineiro (2187), Sanders (2186), Folk (2165), Ficken (2160), and Koo (2157). Folk and Koo were just signed to their respective teams this past week.

 Other stuff:

* Rudy Ford got flagged for another penalty, this time for running out of bounds and not making an attempt to get back onto the field in time. It's becoming annoying how frequently he gets penalized. Sheesh.

* Rodney McLeod made the tackle on the first Eagles kickoff.

* Miles Sanders was a disappointment on kickoffs. He got to the fifteen on one return, and on another he took the ball out of the endzone and stumbled his way to about the thirteen. Hidden yardage lost galore!

* Darren Sproles let a Bears punt land at the sixteen and roll into the endzone for a touchback. He was lucky there that it did so. If he had fielded it, he probably would have gotten past the twenty. More hidden yardage there.

* Boston Scott was flagged for running into the kicker (punter). Fortunately it was of the five yard variety and had no negative consequence. But dangit.

* I think the snap was a tad low on the missed Elliott PAT.

* Avery and Singleton combined nicely on a kickoff tackle.

* Sproles fair caught a Bears punt at the Eagles twelve yard line with only twenty-seven seconds left in the half. That's one of those decisions that always strikes me as wrong. In my view, the proper play there is to simply let the ball hit the ground. Just get out of the half. By attempting to catch it, you run the risk of fumbling and giving away some silly easy points before halftime. Just a pet peeve of mine.

* Johnston was forced to make a tackle (or get involved in the tackle, anyway) on one Eagles punt.

* Sproles bobbled a Bears punt (see what I mean about him fair catching the ball at the end of the half?) and it rolled out of bounds at around the ten yard line. Again, a fortunate bounce for the Eagles.

* There was another punt that Sproles "lost" yardage on by not catching. The ball hit at the fifteen -- and could easily have been caught there -- but it rolled to about the eleven. Four more negative hidden yardage.

* Duke Riley recovered a bobbled squib kick at the end to clinch the game. It certainly made the last twenty seconds a lot more comfortable.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

On 11/22/2019 at 2:43 PM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Patriots game.

Cameron Johnston punted eight times, with an average of about 46.4 yards and 4.42 hangtime. Three were hit to the numbers (or outside) and four had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Jake Bailey punted eight times for the Patriots. He averaged about 45.9 yards and 4.65 hangtime. Four were hit to the numbers or wider, and five had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. The better statistical day goes to Bailey, putting Johnston at 5-5 on the year in his theoretical battle with the opposing punter.

On the season, Johnston is averaging about 46.1 yards and 4.30 hangtime with 40% of his punts in the air for at least 4.5 seconds, and 60% of his punts being hit to the numbers. Opponents are averaging about 44.8 yards and 4.47 hangtime with 46% getting to 4.5 seconds and 42% hit to the numbers.

Both teams were around 2.0 seconds on their punting, from snap to foot, although both teams had a few punts that were closer to 1.8 seconds.

Both teams were around 1.2 seconds on their place kicking efforts, with the Eagles maybe being a tad slower on their field goal attempt.

Kickoffs. Jake Elliott kicked off three times with an average of about 66.3 yards and 4.00 hangtime. Jake Bailey kicked off five times for the Patriots, but one was a line drive which didn't meet the threshold for inclusion on the data. His four measurable kickoffs averaged about 64.8 yards and 3.95 hangtime. On the season, Elliott is averaging about 71.5 yards and 4.06 hangtime (on legitimate kickoffs). Opponents are averaging about 67.4 yards and 4.09 hangtime.

Elliott made his only field goal attempt, from a distance where the expectancy would be about 77%. On the season, he's now at 13-of-13 from distances where the expected value would be about 11.05. So he's "earned" the Eagles about 5.85 points above expectancy, or above standard. His average attempt distance is 34.9 yards, which is roughly an 87% likely kick. Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2301, which ranks fourth in the league. The league average is at 2236. The standard is 2200. The rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2230, which would rank 21st in the league. The Top Five kickers are Tucker (2404), Prater (2328), Lambo (2317), Elliott (2301), and Lutz (2289). The Bottom Five are McLaughlin (2185), Folk (2175), Koo (2166), Pineiro (2156), and Ficken (2151).

Other stuff:

* Boston Scott fumbled another kick. That is his second one of the year, which is one too many. I can't trust him anymore.

* Excellent punt coverage tackle by Craig James, with Rudy Ford coming in to finish it. 

* Scott fair caught one punt at the twenty, staggering around while finishing the catch. Didn't exactly inspire confidence.

* On the Patriots final punt of the game, Scott could have fair caught the ball at the 22. Instead he let it bounce for ten more yards, costing the Eagles four valuable seconds. Terrible at that stage of the game.

* After the Eagles downed a punt at the two yard line, the Patriots moved the ball outside the thirty in three plays. This has become such a common occurrence for the Eagles over the years...anytime they pin the other team deep, it seems like they surrender yards almost at will. Annoying as hell.

* Rudy Ford once again was penalized. (Enough already!) This time for a block in the back. On that same play, however, it sure looked to me like the Patriots gunner on the opposite side of the field ran out of bounds and made no effort to get back into the field of play. That could (should?) easily have been penalized.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

On 11/29/2019 at 9:03 PM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Seahawks game.

Cameron Johnston punted four times. He averaged about 41.0 yards and 4.22 hangtime. One (barely) had at least 4.5 hangtime. Two were hit outside the numbers. Michael Dickson punted seven times for the Seahawks. He averaged about 37.4 yards and 4.06 hangtime. None had 4.5 second hangtime. Five of the seven were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical game goes to Johnston, putting his mark at 6-5 on the year. But let's be clear here -- Dickson had a very good game, often pinning the Eagles deep in their end of the field. The problem was that he didn't get big yardage since he was kicking from Eagles territory. So the numbers are misleading.

On the year, Johnston is averaging about 45.6 yards and 4.29 hangtime with 39% getting to 4.5 hangtime and 59% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging about 43.9 yards and 4.43 hangtime with 41% having 4.5 hangtime and 46% hit outside the numbers. So the Eagles are hitting it further but lower and more towards the sidelines than their opponents.

The Seahawks were a little quicker with their punting than the Eagles. It's not common for the Eagles to be the slower team. Seattle was often around 1.9 seconds, sometimes quicker and a couple times slower. The Eagles were closer to 2.0 seconds, with one punt being a bit slower than that because of a slight hesitation by Johnston.

Kickoffs. The Eagles kicked off only three times (that's a problem) with the final an onside attempt. The two longer kickoffs by Elliott averaged about 73.0 yards and 4.17 hangtime. Jason Myers kicked off four times for the Seahawks but the first one didn't qualify because it was "hit short". His other three kickoffs averaged about 64.7 yards and 4.50 hangtime. That's great hangtime, by the way. I was impressed. On the season, Elliott is averaging about 71.5 yards and 4.07 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 67.2 yards and 4.11 hangtime. So the Eagles are hitting it about four yards further with only slightly less height. Advantage Eagles.

Elliott made his only field goal attempt from a distance with about a 94% expectancy. On the season, he's still perfect with 14-of-14. The standard on those kicks is about 12.0, so he's earned the Eagles about six points over expectancy this season. His current Elo Kicking Rating is at 2302, which ranks fourth in the league. The current league average is at 2235. The rating of Eagles Opponents is now at 2231, which would rank 21st in the league. The Top Five kickers after week 12 are Tucker (2405), Lambo (2328), Prater (2312), Elliott (2302), Lutz (2294). The Bottom Five kickers are Rosas (2190), Koo (2178), Pineiro (2158), Folk (2157), and Ficken (2142).

Other stuff (not too much this  game):

* Greg Ward returned punts. On one of his fair catches, the ball came loose as he was catching it. Not really encouraging. He also ran backwards (again, not encouraging) on one of his returns.

* Elliott's onside kick wasn't particularly good.

 

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

On 12/6/2019 at 11:40 PM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

The miserable Dolphins game.

Cameron Johnston punted three times with an average of about 43.0 yards and 4.16 hangtime. None of his punts reached 4.5 seconds, and only one was hit outside the numbers. Matt Haack punted three times for Miami, averaging only 33.7 yards with 4.49 hangtime. One of his punts was over 4.5 seconds, and two were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical day goes to Johnston, putting his mark at 7-5 on the year.

On the season, Johnston is averaging about 45.5 yards and 4.28 hangtime with 37% of his punts hitting the 4.5 mark and 57% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging about 43.4 yards and 4.43 hangtime with 40% getting to 4.5 seconds and 47% hit to the numbers on the field. 

While watching the game as it took place, I was shocked when I saw how leisurely Haack was on his first punt. Wow, was he slow! From touch to toe, he was around 1.5 seconds, which is ghastly. The snap to foot times on their three punts were about 2.15, 2.07, and about 1.8 (he made a real effort to be particularly quick on that one.)

Kickoffs. Jake Elliott had five deep kickoffs which averaged about 74.4 yards (nearly to the back of the endzone) with 4.17 hangtime. Jason Sanders averaged about 73.7 yards and 4.34 (very good) hangtime on his six kickoffs. On the season, Elliott is averaging about 71.8 yards and 4.08 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 67.9 yards and 4.14 hangtime.

So on both punts and kickoffs this year, the Eagles are hitting the ball further than their counterparts but not quite as high.

The snap to foot times on field goals/PATs for the Eagles were very good. Right around 1.20. The Dolphins were much slower, around 1.35

Elliott missed his first field goal of the season, a very costly miss. He was 3-of-4 from distances where the expectancy would be about 2.9. On the season, he is now 17-of-18 from distances with an expectancy of about 14.9. So he's (2.1 x 3) earned the Eagles about 6.3 points above expected value. His average attempt distance is now at 36.6 yards. His Elo Rating dropped to 2295, which ranks fifth in the league. The rating of Eagles Opponents nudged forward a bit to 2240, which would rank seventeenth in the league. The current league average is now at 2236. The current Top Five are Tucker (2408), Lambo (2335), Prater (2313), Lutz (2308), and Elliott (2295). The Bottom Five are Carlson (2187), Koo (2174), Pineiro (2160), Ficken (2155), and Maher (2154). Maher's rating will drop further after the (glorious) loss to the Bears last night.

Other stuff:

* Craig James made a nice tackle on a punt.

* Mack Hollins had more of an impact in this game than he had all season. I guess because he was no longer a viable offensive player, he was finally again being used on special teams. He made a play on a punt later in the game.

* T.J. Edwards recovered a surprise onside kick by the Dolphins to start the second half.

* The Eagles pinned the Dolphins inside their ten yard line, prompting me to predict that "they'll be at the thirty within three plays". And of course they were...easily. It's so damn routine for the Eagles defense over the years. Maddening.

* Elliott's onside kick at the end of the game was much better than his effort against the Seahawks. He at least got the ball to bounce off an opponent player. Unfortunately it bounded to another Dolphins player.

* Not special teams related, but did you notice the Eagles get ripped off of nineteen precious seconds in the closing minutes when Alshon Jeffery caught a pass at the sideline and rolled out of bounds untouched, only to have the official wave to keep the clock running?

* Okay, finally I'll address it. The trick play by the Dolphins. The Eagles lined up in a similar formation against the Chiefs on a PAT in Chip Kelly's first season. That trick play didn't work at all. Ertz caught a pass but the blocking didn't hold up and he was stopped immediately. It looked to me like the Eagles had the play defensed easily. They did. And then, inexplicably, Josh Sweat decided to stop covering the eligible receiver he was covering, even though he was the only person who might do any damage on the play. Infuriating.

Fortunately the Cowboys lost on Thanksgiving so the Eagles were in a position to still control their destiny even if they lost. They no longer have that luxury, even with the Cowboys losing again to the Bears. They must win all four games, unless Cowboys lose again next week against the Rams. If that happens, the Eagles could drop one of the three games against the Giants and Redskins, provided that they beat the Cowboys in week sixteen.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

On 12/13/2019 at 3:51 PM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Giants Monday Night Game. Lots of punts.

Cameron Johnston punted eight times for the Eagles. He averaged about 45.5 yards (from the line of scrimmage to where the ball went, rolls not included) and 4.35 hangtime. Three of the eight had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Four of the eight were hit to the area of the field outside the numbers. Riley Dixon punted nine times for the Giants. He averaged about 43.1 yards and 4.37 hangtime. Five of his punts had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Only two were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical day goes to Johnston, putting his mark at 8-5 on the season in his theoretical 1-on-1 battle with the opposing punter.

Through thirteen games, Johnston is averaging about 45.5 yards and 4.29 hangtime with 37% of his punts reaching the 4.5 second mark and 56% hit outside the numbers (meaning 44% were hit to the middle of the field.) Opposing punters are averaging about 43.4 yards and 4.42 hangtime with 42% reaching the 4.5 second mark and 44% hit outside the numbers.

The Eagles were much quicker with their punt game than the Giants. They were right around 1.9 seconds from snap to Johnston's foot. There were a couple over 2.0 seconds but also a few under 1.9 seconds. The Giants on the other hand were especially slow. Around 2.1 on average, with several close to 2.2 seconds and one right around 2.3 seconds. That's pretty bad. If I'm the Eagles, I'm looking to block a punt of theirs the next time they play. To be honest, over the years the Giants have always stood out to me as a team that's vulnerable to this.

Kickoffs. Jake Elliott kicked off four times with an average of about 70.3 yards (middle of the endzone) and 3.89 hangtime. (One of his touchbacks was a fairly low line drive that brought down the average.) Aldrick Rosas averaged about 66.8 yards (front of the endzone) but had a strong 4.19 hangtime. He's got a good leg. On the season, Elliott is averaging about 71.7 yards and 4.06 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 67.8 yards and 4.14 hangtime.

The Eagles were quicker on their field goals/PATs than the Giants. Right around 1.2 seconds from snap to foot. The Giants were closer to 1.3 seconds. Their snaps were also a bit low, further evidence of a vulnerability of theirs on special teams. 

Elliott made one of two field goals from distances where he was expected to make about 1.56. On the season, he's now 18-of-20 from distances with an expectancy of about 16.45. So he's earned the Eagles about 4.65 points above expected value (3 x 1.55). His average attempt is now at 37.0 yards. His Elo Kicking Rating dropped to 2278, which ranks seventh in the league. The rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2242, which would rank nineteenth. The league average through fourteen weeks was at 2235. The Top Five kickers were Tucker (2409), Lambo (2336), Lutz (2322), Prater (2293), and Butker (2285). The Bottom Five were Carlson (2187), Ficken (2174), Pineiro (2164), Folk (2141), and Maher (2139).

Other stuff:

* As I mentioned before, Riley Dixon has slow mechanics with a big leg swing. He's a good punter but I think you can get to him.

* Rasul Douglas got flagged for a penalty on a punt return, and also got beat by a Giants gunner on a previous punt. That's the one where Ward fielded the ball and was tackled immediately yet somehow still tried to get up off the ground to continue the play.

* Ward let a punt hit the ground late in the game rather than come up to field it. There were five yards of "hidden yardage" lost on the play. The only valid excuse I could give him was that he was worried about ball security in the rain. But I was at the game and I don't remember too much rain in the second half

* Looking to next week, the Redskins have a great punter and a very good kickoff guy. He's only average on field goals though.

 

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

On 12/20/2019 at 12:06 PM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Redskins game.

Cameron Johnston punted three times, averaging about 47.3 yards and 4.21 hangtime. None of the three were in the air for 4.5 seconds. Two were hit outside the numbers. Tress Way, probably the best punter in the league, punted four times with an average of about 46.0 yards and 4.62 hangtime. Only one of his punts had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Only one was hit outside the numbers. The better statistical day goes to Way, putting Johnson's mark at 6-8 on the year.

On the season, Johnston is averaging about 45.6 yards and 4.29 hangtime with 35% of his punts in the air for at least 4.5 seconds and 57% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging about 43.5 yards and 4.43 hangtime with 41% getting to the 4.5 second mark and 43% hit outside the numbers. It's pretty much the same pattern every year for the Eagles punting game. More yards but less height.

Neither team was especially quick with their snap to foot times on punts. (I wonder if it being colder now than it was at the beginning of the year is a factor). The Eagles were around 2.0 seconds. The Redskins were more like 2.05.

Kickoffs. Jake Elliott kicked off six times with an average of about 66.0 yards (one yard into the endzone) with 4.08 hangtime. Dustin Hopkins kicked off six times for the Skins. He averaged about 70.5 yards (halfway through the endzone) and 4.14 hangtime. On the season, Elliott is averaging about 71.1 yards and 4.06 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 68.1 yards and 4.14 hangtime.

The timing on place kicks was usual, meaning that the Eagles were quicker. They were around 1.20 seconds. The Redskins were slower than that, around 1.25-1.30.

Elliott made his only field goal attempt from a short distance with an expectancy of about 96%. On the season, he's now 19-of-21 from distances with an expectancy of about 17.4. So he's earned the Eagles about 4.8 points above expected value this year. His Elo Kicking Rating is now at 2279, which ranks seventh in the league. The rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2256, which would rank seventeenth. The current league average is 2240. The Top Five kickers are Tucker (2409), Lambo (2340), Lutz (2324), Prater (2297), and Butker (2290). The Bottom Five kickers are Succop (2188), Carlson (2177), Pineiro (2168), Ficken (2159), and Folk (2156).

Other stuff:

* Did anyone notice the horrible job the officials did at marking the ball after a Washington fair catch? Their return man caught the ball at about the seven and a half, and the official marked it at the nine. Ugh.

* With 42 seconds left in the first half, Ward could have fair caught a punt at the Eagles nine yard line. I think at that point they would have tried to mount an offense before halftime. Instead he let the ball bounce and it was downed at the two. They simply ran out the clock. 

* Poor coverage by the Eagles on the kickoff after they went ahead 24-21 with about ten minutes left in the game. The Redskins returner got the ball out to the 45. Bad.

* On the final kickoff of the game, the coverage wasn't that much better. The return man got it out to the 32. Marcus Epps whiffed on the tackle. Good effort by Elliott, and Craig James made the tackle. At least the play took eight seconds off the clock (I think it should have only been seven) to really limit the Redskins offense for their final drive.

Regarding next week, the Cowboys have a good punter. Their kicking game isn't that great. The recently added Kai Forbath is a reliable kicker (average) but he doesn't have a big leg. With temperatures in the forties, I expect his limit to be about fifty yards. Oh, and I think he's a bit of a low kicker.

 

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

On 12/28/2019 at 12:41 AM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Cowboys game. A fun one.

Cameron Johnston punted four times for the Eagles. He averaged about 41.0 yards and 4.18 hangtime. None of his punts reached the 4.5 second mark. Three of the four were hit outside the numbers. Including the penalty and re-kick, Chris Jones punted seven times for the Cowboys. He averaged about 40.4 yards and 4.54 hangtime. Five of the seven had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Three of the seven were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical game goes to the Cowboys punter, putting the mark for Johnston at 8-7 on the season.

Through fifteen games, Johnston is averaging about 45.3 yards and 4.28 hangtime with 33% of his punts in the air for at least 4.5 seconds and 58% of his punts hit outside the middle of the field. Opponents are averaging about 43.3 yards and 4.44 hangtime with 44% getting to 4.5 seconds and 43% hit outside the numbers.

I would say the Eagles were slightly quicker on their punt mechanics than the Cowboys were. Both teams were roughly in the 1.9 to 1.95 second range, although the Cowboys were a little slower than that a few times.

Jake Elliott kicked off four times and averaged (as best as I could tell) about 65.5 yards and 4.30 hangtime. Excluding the squib at the end of the first half, Kai Forbath kicked off three times for the Cowboys with an average of about 64.7 yards and 4.03 hangtime. On the season, Elliott is averaging about 70.8 yards and 4.08 hangtime on his legitimate deep kickoffs. Opponents are averaging about 67.9 yards and 4.14 hangtime.

The Eagles were quicker on their placekicks than the Cowboys were. Around 1.25 seconds from snap to foot. Dallas was more like 1.35. A little slower on their first field goal.

Elliott only made one of three field goal attempts. His expectancy based on the distances of his attempts was about 1.91. On the season, he's now 20-of-24 from distances with an expectancy of about 19.3. So he's .7 above the expected value which means he's earned the Eagles about 3 points more than expected on the season. His average attempt distance is about 37.9. His Elo Kicking Rating dropped to 2251 which now ranks 18th. The rating of Eagles Opponent improved to 2272, which would rank 12th. The current league average is 2241. The standard is 2200. The Top Five kickers are Tucker (he's always first ) (2409), Lambo (2343), Lutz (2328), Butker (2301), and Prater (2298). The Bottom Five kickers are Carlson (2186), Ficken (2183), Koo (2182), Pineiro (2176), and Folk (2172). 

Other stuff:

* Boston Scott had a couple of nice kickoff returns.

* T.J. Edwards made a tackle on a punt and also on a kickoff.

* Nathan Gerry had a pretty good return on the squib kick at the end of the first half, but it didn't really matter. The only thing that mattered on that play was that he not fumble. Which he didn't.

* Greg Ward has cleanly caught every punt this year that he's attempted to catch, yet he still looks a little awkward doing so. 

* Looking ahead to next week...As I mentioned previously, I think the Giants are a team you can block kicks against. Let's go for it!!!

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

On 1/3/2020 at 1:22 PM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Giants finale.

Cameron Johnston punted seven times, with an average of about 43.1 yards and 4.50 hangtime. Four of the seven had at least 4.5 seconds. Three were hit outside the numbers. Riley Dixon punted seven times, including one re-kick after a penalty. He averaged about 44.3 yards and 4.60 hangtime. Four of his punts had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Three of his punts were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical day goes to Dixon, putting Johnston's mark at 8-8 on the season.

Through the regular season, Johnston has averaged about 45.1 yards and 4.30 hangtime with 35% of his punts reaching the 4.5 second mark and 56% hit outside the numbers. Opponents averaged about 43.3 yards and 4.45 hangtime with 45% hitting the 4.5 mark and 43% hit outside the numbers. It's the same pattern we've become accustomed to -- Eagles hit the ball further but not as high.

The Giants were very slow with their punting game. I believe their snapper is a replacement for their veteran guy, and his snaps weren't all that good. And Dixon was kinda deliberate. They were consistently over 2.0 seconds from snap to foot, with several around 2.2 seconds, which is pretty bad. The Eagles were definitely faster, though not as quick as they had been routinely earlier in the year. 

Kickoffs. Jake Elliott kicked off seven times with an average of about 64.4 yards (not quite to the goal line) and 4.08 hangtime. Aldrick Rosas kicked off four times for the Giants. He averaged about 69.8 yards and 4.25 hangtime. On the season, Elliott has averaged about 70.2 yards and 4.08 hangtime. Opponents have averaged about 68.0 yards and 4.14 hangtime. Of course, these numbers only reflect actual deep kickoffs. Line drives and squibs and onside kicks are naturally excluded.

Elliott made both of his field goal attempts. The distances of those kicks had an expectancy of about 1.53. On the season, he's 22-of-26 from distances with an expectancy of about 20.85. So he's plus about 3.45 points (1.15 x 3) on the season. His average attempt distance is 38.1. (League averages are consistently around 38 yards per attempt). His Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2260, which ranks seventeenth in the league. The rating of Eagles Opponents is now at 2275, which would rank twelfth. The current league average is 2243. The Top Five end-of-the-season kickers were Tucker (2414), Lambo (2357), Lutz (2328), Prater (2311), and Butker (2304). The Bottom Five were Succop (IR) (2188), Pineiro (2184), Folk (2173), Carlson (2172), and Ficken (2159).

Other stuff:

* Daeshon Hall has impressed lately on kickoff coverage. He did so again in this game. It's a shame he got hurt on the final play of the game. Too bad.

* Boston Scott fumbled the opening kickoff, putting the Eagles back on their first drive. Not a good start.

* Malcolm Jenkins made a tackle on a punt. I guess it was an "all hands on deck" type of game, so you use your starters.

* The Giants were flagged for holding (Brandon Graham) on a punt, forcing a re-play which netted the Eagles about seventeen yards.

* Sidney Jones downed a punt at the two yard line and also made a good punt coverage tackle late in the game.

* Did anyone notice that back-to-back kickoffs by Elliott in the fourth quarter landed in almost the exact same spot of the Giants logo? Maybe two yards off but pretty damn close. I found that amusing.

* Looking ahead to the next game, I think the Seahawks have a slight advantage. Myers is a good kicker and Dickson is a very skilled directional/placement punter.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

On 4/19/2020 at 1:21 PM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Seahawks playoff loss. Just a quick look at the data. Didn't bother to look at more than just that.

Cameron Johnston punted three times with an average of about 45.7 yards and 3.96 hangtime. None of his kicks were outside the numbers, meaning he hit them all to the middle of the field. None of his punts had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Michael Dickson punted four times for the Seahawks. He averaged about 42.0 yards with 4.19 hangtime. Only one of his punts were hit outside the numbers and only one was in the air for at least 4.5 seconds. The better statistical game goes to Johnston, putting his mark at 9-8 on the year in his theoretical 1-on-1 battle with the opposing punter.

On the season, Johnston averaged about 45.1 yards and 4.29 hangtime with 34% of his punts hitting the 4.5 second mark and 54% of his punts hit outside the numbers. Opponents averaged about 43.3 yards and 4.44 hangtime with 44% of their punts getting to 4.5 seconds and 42% of their punts hit outside the numbers. It's the usual thing for the Eagles -- another year where they hit the ball further but not as high.

Jake Elliott kicked off four times but one of them was a low line drive which didn't warrant inclusion into the numbers. His three "legit" kickoffs averaged about 66.0 yards (barely into the endzone) with 4.06 hangtime. Jason Myers kicked off four times for Seattle. He averaged about 67.3 yards and 4.35 hangtime. Great height on his kickoffs!

On the season, the Eagles (Elliott) averaged about 70.0 yards with 4.08 hangtime. Opponents averaged about 68.0 yards and 4.16 hangtime. These numbers won't be reflected in official NFL stats, since the NFL has a weird way of measuring kicks. They base it on where the ball is fielded rather than touch the ground. And they count any kick that just sails out of the endzone as only going to the goal line. My measurement shows the actual distance the ball went before it was caught or hit the ground. My way is better, by the way.

Didn't look at the snap times. Too painful of a game to watch. Did notice that one of Lovato's punt snaps sailed significantly. Maybe it was windy. I don't remember.

Elliott made all three of his field goal attempts from distances where the expectancy would be about 2.5. So he was a "plus" 0.5 on the day, meaning he earned the Eagles about 1.5 points above expected value. His Elo rating improved to 2269 which ranks sixteenth in the league. The final (post Super Bowl) league average was 2243. The rating of "Eagles Opponents" was 2260. The final ranking for the season had the top five as Tucker (2416), Lambo (2357), Lutz (2313), Prater (2311), and Butker (2305). The bottom five were Gay (2190), Pineiro (2184), Folk (2177), Carlson (2172), and Ficken (2159).

That's a wrap. See y'all on the new board if there is one and I can find my way there.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

On 4/20/2020 at 3:00 PM, OCEaglefan said:

I really like that a thread I started in 2006 still exists today. I knew less about football then than I do now which is still zilch. Pretty much every position had a ‘blog’ back then.

Franklin did 99.9% of the work in here and is a true superstar for his work over the years 

[Connecticut Eagle]

Did you time yourself while doing all this?

Nice work, BTW.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

2 hours ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

Did you time yourself while doing all this?

Nice work, BTW.

Probably about an hour and a half. Could have done it quicker but had to pause between posts so as to not have back-to-back entries combined into one. Happened a couple times and had to correct it.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Here's a statistical look at the 2019 regular season. It's a ranking I would call "Points Per Attempt Percentage." For example Justin Tucker attempted 29 field goals, making 28. He would have been expected to make 24.0 of those, based on the various distances of each of his attempts. So he "earned" the Ravens about 12.0 points (28 minus 24.0, times three). 12.054 (the actual number) divided by 29 is roughly .416. For the record, this was a surprisingly bad year for kickers throughout the league, the worst since 2011.

Of kickers with at least ten attempts (and this is still "unofficial" since the league hasn't put out the official stats yet; that usually comes out in August):

  1) .710 Kai Forbath (only 11 attempts, was signed late in the year)

 2) .416 Justin Tucker (he's great every year, which is why he's the premier kicker in the league)

 3) .415 Josh Lambo (surprisingly good year, kind of unnoticed on a bad team)

 4) .311 Wil Lutz

 5) .300 Dan Bailey

 6) .298 Mason Crosby

 7) .298 Chris Boswell

 8) .279 Brandon McManus

 9) .275) Harrison Butker

10) .218 Randy Bullock

11) .192 Joey Slye

12) .190 Matt Prater

13) .157 Younghoe Koo

14) .148 Austin Seibert

15) .133 Jake Elliott (22 of 26, expected to make about 20.85)

16) .085 Zane Gonzalez

17) .080 Ka'imi Fairbairn

18) .064 Steven Hauschka

19) .059 Dustin Hopkins

20) .040 Jason Myers

21) .031 Matt Gay

22) -.009 Michael Badgley

23) -.020 Nick Folk

24) -.021 Chase McLaughlin

25) -.047 Jason Sanders

26) -.071 Eddy Pineiro

27) -.096 Sam Ficken

28) -.110 Greg Zuerlein (he's usually better than this but it might explain why the Rams drafted a kicker this year)

29) -.222 Robbie Gould

30) -.257 Matt Bryant (and he got cut midway through the season)

31) -.271 Daniel Carlson

32) -.296 Brett Maher (haha!)

33) -.299 Adam Vinatieri (really bad year for such a great kicker; it's probably over for him)

34) -.427 Aldrick Rosas (had a terrible rookie year, a great second year, and then another terrible year)

 

So Jake Elliott was in the middle of the pack, slightly above average. At some point, I might do this same study, but encompassing the past three years. I'm guessing Elliott will probably be in the 10th to 15th range there.

[eaglepride101]

Who were the best bottom of the roster ST guys last season? As everyone is building their 53s, wonder if there's someone we're overlooking we really should't (i.e. a Craig James or Alex Singleton type).

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

9 hours ago, eaglepride101 said:

Who were the best bottom of the roster ST guys last season? As everyone is building their 53s, wonder if there's someone we're overlooking we really should't (i.e. a Craig James or Alex Singleton type).

Rudy Ford looked good. I think Alex Ellis would have been good but he got hurt after the first game and was never on the active roster the rest of the year.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Supposedly Casey Toohill is a very good special teams prospect but wasn't used there much at Stanford. I'm hopeful that he could become a Bryan Braman type player. What made Braman so unique is that he was a DE/LB type player. Almost all special teams demons are DB/WR types. Having a big guy being able to do those things on special teams was great for the Eagles.

Speaking of Braman, I get so much satisfaction watching him make the tackle on the final kickoff in the Super Bowl, the play where the Patriots tried that desperation reverse. What a way to end your career!!!

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

"Football Team" season opener. It was fun for about 28 minutes.

Cameron Johnston punted five times for the Eagles. He averaged about 52.6 yards (from the line of scrimmage to where the ball actually landed) and 4.73 hangtime. Four of his five punts had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Two of the five were hit outside the numbers, which means that three were hit "in the middle of the field". Tress Way, who I consider to be possibly the best punter in the league, punted eight times for the Football Team. He only had seven official punts, but on one of the punts there was a penalty which led to a re-kick. He averaged about 47.9 yards and 4.84 hangtime. Seven of the eight punts had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Only two were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical performance -- as judged by my formula -- goes to Johnston, putting his mark on this season at 1-0.

Unlike last year, I did not think the Eagles were "quicker" on their punts -- from the snap of the ball to the moment the foot of the punter struck the ball -- than the other team. That has been a staple of their special teams the past few years, but it wasn't the case in this game. It looked like Washington was a tad quicker. Slightly under two seconds vs slightly over two seconds. Something to keep an eye on in the future, I guess. Not going to worry after only one game.

Jake Elliott kicked off four times. Sadly they were all in the first half. He averaged about 74.0 yards and 4.36 hangtime. Dustin Hopkins may only be an average kicker, but he's always been a good kickoff guy. He had a surprisingly less than average day. He kicked off six times, with an average of about 69.2 yards and 3.91 hangtime.

Elliott made only 1 of his 2 field goal attempts, inexplicably coming up short from 53 yards out. Weird. The expectancy of his kicks based on the distance of the attempts was about 1.39. Which means he was minus .39 on the day. Which means he fell about 1.17 points off the expectancy. His current Elo rating is now at 2256, which ranks fourteenth in the league. The league average is at 2240. The rating of Eagles Opponents fell to 2249, which would rank seventeenth in the league. The Top Five rated kickers after Week 1 were Tucker (2417), Lambo (2365), Lutz (2314), Gould (2311), and Butker (2306). The Bottom Five kickers were Succop (2180), Santos (2167), Ficken (2162), Bass (2160), and Folk (2160). Don't look now, but Josh Lambo has very quietly been putting up fantastic results in the last year or so and is making a run at Tucker, the greatest kicker in history. 

Other stuff:

* Jalen Reagor dropped the first punt of his career, which didn't exactly instill anyone with confidence. The ball was thankfully recovered by Craig James, so no harm was done. But still...not good.

* On an early Football Team punt, the play clock had clearly expired yet the officials allowed the play to continue. I also thought that Greg Ward might have been best served to fair catch the ball at the seven rather than allow it to be downed at the five. It's a tough decision on where you should or should not call for a fair catch inside the ten. I certainly don't adhere to the long-standing argument that anything inside the ten should not be caught. I think you're just giving the opposing team free yards when you let a ball just inside the ten hit the ground. 

* Rudy Ford made two very good plays as a gunner in punt coverage.

* Marcus Epps had a nice tackle on a punt.

* Epps was also flagged for a penalty on a punt return that cost significant yardage

Unlike most people, I don't panic about Week 1 losses. Things will get better.