Special Teams blog

[Blazehound]

14 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

It really says something when the other team is willing to return the ball from about eight yards deep in the endzone with only a couple minutes left in the game. Normally they'd maybe get to the fifteen...twenty if they're lucky. Normally they'll just take the touchback and the ball on the twenty-five. But they knew the Eagles coverage units were so awful that it was to their advantage to just bring it on out, even if it costs them ten seconds of play time. And of course the guy nearly goes the whole way.

It's embarrassing.

Why not bring on a long range kicker to kick the ball out of bounds on each kickoff? 

[Eagles1960]

Clay is in over his head.  If you can't coach special teams then you shouldn't have a job.  One of the problems on kick coverage is they have had small offensive players out there.  Specifically Ball and Scott.  Calcaterra has also been out there and I don't know how much experience he has running under kicks.  He missed all of training camp.  I do not want to see small RB's covering kicks.  I assume Clay/Sirianni decide the coverage teams.  Jobe may need to be activated just for that purpose.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

On 11/28/2022 at 2:32 PM, Blazehound said:

Why not bring on a long range kicker to kick the ball out of bounds on each kickoff? 

Elliott is one of the best long kickoff guys in the league. How easy do you think it would be to find someone who is even better at it than him? And even if you could find one, how could you justify a spot on the 53 man roster spot for him? How about on the game day roster?

[Blazehound]

4 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Elliott is one of the best long kickoff guys in the league. How easy do you think it would be to find someone who is even better at it than him? And even if you could find one, how could you justify a spot on the 53 man roster spot for him? How about on the game day roster?

It’s not unusual for a team to carry two kickers. Not sure what’s available in terms of leg talent out there, but the roster concerns would pale in comparison to the benefit provided on kickoffs. 

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

50 minutes ago, Blazehound said:

It’s not unusual for a team to carry two kickers. Not sure what’s available in terms of leg talent out there, but the roster concerns would pale in comparison to the benefit provided on kickoffs. 

It's highly unusual for teams to carry two kickers on their 53-man roster. The only times it really happens is if the regular kicker is injured and they need to carry an extra one for a game or two. That's emergency stuff. And it means that only one is active for the game. Dedicating game-day roster spots for two kickers went out of vogue when the league switched the kickoff spot from the 30 to the 35. 

[Cochis_Calhoun]

I agree with Franklin carrying 2 kickers would be ridiculous, if the kick is hitting the endzone and your opponent is still attempting to run it back that's not a kicker problem, it's because they don't respect your coverage unit, and on the evidence of the last 2 seasons they're right and I don't see any improvements being made.

Covey is a bottom 5 returner in the league, his longest punt return is flat worst, his longest kick return is second worst, he offers nothing, never makes anyone miss, he's a better judge of flight than Reagor was but that's not a high bar.

[UK Eagle]

Clay hasn't done a great job, but the personnel is not good either.  The Eagles don't have a recognised quality returner near the roster, the ST units have lost players to playing time and those that come in, aren't stepping up to make an impact.  Dean is in theory a leader out there, but I had no idea he was on STs - says a lot.

The personnel need a giant kick up the backside or there needs to cuts or inactivations to make the point that the unit has not been good enough

[RLC]

8 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

It's highly unusual for teams to carry two kickers on their 53-man roster. The only times it really happens is if the regular kicker is injured and they need to carry an extra one for a game or two. That's emergency stuff. And it means that only one is active for the game. Dedicating game-day roster spots for two kickers went out of vogue when the league switched the kickoff spot from the 30 to the 35. 

Agreed.

In the playoffs, they could carry a kicker with an awesome leg on the practice squad, then activate him 3 games in a row. It's not a great option, but it's "an" option. 

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Packers game. Not good.

Arryn Siposs only punted once. That part is good. He "averaged" about 50.0 yards and 4.23 hangtime. The punt was hit outside the numbers. Pat O'Donnell only punted twice for the Packers. That part isn't good. He averaged about 40.5 yards and 4.52 hangtime. One had a hangtime greater than 4.5 seconds and one (the same one) was hit outside the numbers. 

The Packers were extraordinarily slow with their punting mechanics.

The better statistical game goes to the Eagles, putting Siposs at 2-9 on the season. He's currently averaging about 45.3 yards and 4.35 hangtime with 41% at 4.5 seconds and 49% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging about 48.7 yards and 4.62 hangtime (both of which are insanely good/that's just bad luck/there's nothing you can do about it) with 68% at 4.5 seconds and 61% hit outside the numbers.

Jake Elliott kicked off eight times with an average of about 69.1 yards and 4.29 hangtime. That might have been his best game of the year, all things considered. Excluding the onside kick at the end, Mason Crosby kicked off six times for an average of only 65.0 yards and 3.83 hangtime. Those numbers scream "returnable ball!" On the season, Elliott is averaging about 70.5 yards and 4.09 hangtime. The Eagles are averaging 70.8 yards and 4.14 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 67.5 yards and 4.15 hangtime. 

Placekick times slightly favored the Eagles.

Elliott made both of his field goal attempts. Based on the distances involved, the expectancy was about 1.44. On the season, he's now 9-of-11 from distances with an expectancy of about 8.85. So he's plus 0.15, meaning he's earned the Eagles about 0.45 points above expected value. His Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2274, which ranks 20th in the lague. 2274 is also the league average. The rating of Eagles Opponent is now at 2287, which would rank 16th and is 0.28 standard deviations above the mean. The Top Five kickers are Tucker (2419, 3.07); Gano (2388, 2.41); Carlson (2352, 1.65); Myers (2338, 1.36); and Koo (2322, 1.02). The Bottom Five kickers are Badgley (2217, -1.21); Patterson (2210, -1.35); Crosby (2205, -1.46); York (2194, -1.69); and Shudak (2187, -1.84). Shudak kicks for the Titans. I hope he kicks tomorrow. Of course, if he does he's sure to make them all, especially long ones. But one can dream.

Other stuff:

* I noticed on the first PAT that the Eagles did not have the ball dead center between the hashmarks. I thought they were "playing the wind" by shifting it slightly to the left. And then Elliott missed his next PAT with the same alignment.

* On the kickoff with the score 13-0, the Eagles allowed a return all the way to the 41. In my opinion the main culprit was K'Von Wallace, who overran and fell, leaving a huge gap.

* Boston Scott fielded a kickoff at the nine yard that only had 3.80 hangtime. There should be a ton of room. But he only got to the 27.

* Britain Covey fair caught a punt that he might have been able to return.

* The opening kickoff of the second half was another lousy one for the Eagles. The Packers return man took it from five yards deep and got it all the way out to the 47. I thought Nakobe Dean got tied to his block far too long. McPhearson also. And I thought Boston Scott shared some of the blame too.

* On the final Packers punt, it looked to me like the Eagles jumped. There was no flag. Fortunately it was fourth and long so a penalty wouldn't have given them a first down, but still, you can't be doing that crap. 

* On a subsequent punt, Kenneth Gainwell missed a tackle that might have pinned the Packers inside the twenty. Instead they got it out to the 25. 

* The final Eagles kickoff was a disaster. The ball landed about five yards deep, which is normally not considered returnable. On top of that, the hangtime was well above average. About 4.22 seconds. There's no way a ball hit that well should be returned successfully. The fact that the Packers even attempted to return it was a huge sign of disrespect. Not that the Eagles coverage units deserve respect, of course. Frankly it's an admission that "you guys suck at stopping us so we're just gonna take it out regardless." Embarrassing. And then the guy almost took it to midfield. Another disastrous job by the coverage guys. Andre Chachere totally whiffed at about the thirty. (There's no reason he should have clear sailing to the thirty anyway). Gainwell and Wallace were other culprits. Thankfully Jake Elliott didn't get injured trying to clean up this mess.

* Jack Stoll recovered the onside kick with a little more than a minute to go. The game could have been a helluva lot scarier if he hadn't.

[olsilverhair]

ST's makes me close my eyes

[SkippyX]

On 11/29/2022 at 5:19 PM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Elliott is one of the best long kickoff guys in the league. How easy do you think it would be to find someone who is even better at it than him? And even if you could find one, how could you justify a spot on the 53 man roster spot for him? How about on the game day roster?

I can answer the justification one. Its really easy.

You don't want the other team starting at midfield.

[brkmsn]

Best ST performance this year from us. I hope they keep it up.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

2 hours ago, brkmsn said:

Best ST performance this year from us. I hope they keep it up.

Christian Elliss certainly stood out. And Nakobe Dean made an appearance!

[RLC]

I don't need ST to be a strength, but ST merely non-hurting us was a big win.

Covey easily had his best game. He was very decisive. 

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Titans game. Much improved.

Arryn Siposs punted five times with an average of about 43.2 yards and 4.19 hangtime. Two of the five had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds while only one was hit outside the numbers. Ryan Stonehouse ranked among the highest of the league leaders in distance and he demonstrated that skill throughout the game. He averaged an amazing 58.1 yards and 4.33 hangtime on seven punts. Three (barely) reached the 4.5 second mark and only one was hit outside the numbers. Basically the Titans just killed the ball down the middle of the field the entire game without a lot of regard to hangtime. The better statistical game goes to the Titans, putting the mark for Siposs at 2-10 on the year.

Through twelve games, Siposs is averaging about 45.1 yards and 4.33 hangtime with 41% at 4.5 seconds and 46% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging about 50.0 yards (amazing) and 4.58 hangtime (well above average) with 64% at 4.5 seconds or more and 54% hit outside the numbers.

The Titans were one of the quicker teams in terms of getting the ball off. Several were under two seconds and the others were only slightly over. They seem to do a good job. The Eagles were generally quicker with the last two extremely quick. I'm talking about 1.6 and 1.8 seconds. On those punts the emphasis was primarily on just getting the ball off. One way to jump start a rally is to allow a blocked punt, and the Eagles weren't gonna have that. So it was simply snap, catch, and punt.

Jake Elliott kicked off six times and as best as I can tell averaged about 65.8 yards and 3.96 hangtime. Not as good as the Packers game. I presume the weather was much more of an issue. Randy Bullock kicked off three times, twice using a holder. One such kickoff was from midfield after an Eagles penalty. That kickoff is excluded from the numbers since its inclusion would only serve to distort the numbers since the ball was intentionally hit very short. His two legitimate deep kickoffs averaged about 68.0 yards and only 3.75 hangtime.

On the season, Elliott is averaging about 70.1 yards and 4.08 hangtime. The Eagles (Elliott and the one Dicker game) are averaging about 70.4 yards and 4.13 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 67.5 yards and 4.13 hangtime. We definitely hit it farther.

Elliott attempted one very short field goal but it didn't count because of a penalty on the Titans. So his official numbers are 0-for-0, meaning he's still 9-of-11 on the season from distances with an expected value of about 8.95. Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating remains at 2274, which ranks 20th in the league and is -0.10 standard deviations below the mean. . The rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2289, which would rank 18th and is 0.26 STD above the mean. The league average is 2276. The Top Five kickers after week 13 were Tucker (2419, 3.36); Gano (2376, 2.33); Carlson (2341, 1.50); Myers (2341, 1.50); and Koo (2334, 1.33). The Bottom Five Kickers were Dicker (2224, -1.29); Vizcaino-PS (2221, -1.36); Patterson (2217, -1.45); Crosby (2208, -1.67); and York (2206, -1.71). 

Other stuff:

* Christian Elliss was fantastic, a true revelation. He had a great violent tackle on the Eagles first punt (Stoll was in on it too) and on the last punt of the game he flew downfield for another big hit. He reminded me of a smaller but equally efficient Bryan Braman. I also thought he did quite well late in the game on defense. He still has two "free" activations which I'm sure will be used. And I wouldn't be surprised if he finds his way onto the active roster come playoff time. Guys who can impact special teams like that are worth keeping around.

* I was surprised that the Titans didn't follow the Packers lead by returning kicks out of the endzone.

* Britain Covey had punt returns of (approximately/by my estimation not official stats) of 11, 21, 15, 28, 27, and 7 yards. On the final punt he let the ball go over his head. He had a lot of room to work with and to his credit he did well. I've been a supporter of his the whole time so I was glad to see it. I think he's always shown good quickness and vision, as well as the admirably quality of consistently moving forward. I think it's strength and elusiveness where he's somewhat lacking. But yes, a very good game for him.

* Shaun Bradley made a couple of tackles on kickoffs.

* Nakobe Dean had a big hit on the opening kickoff of the second half. He came through untouched and made a hard tackle near the sideline.

* Andre Chachere made a tackle on a punt.

* Let's hope they play as well against the Giants.

 

[xxeaglesfanxx]

Special teams was much improved last week. Hopefully that’s a sign of things to come for the remainder of the season.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Giants game. Mostly good but some bad sprinkled in.

Arryn Siposs only punted once and it was blocked. There's no point in using the data from that punt. Jake Elliott punted once and did an admirable job, all things considered. Since he had done the same in a game two years ago, I was not overly concerned. I knew he was capable enough to simply get us through the game. His punt traveled about 33 yards with about 4.49 hangtime. It was really close to being 4.5 seconds but I couldn't quite justify it. The operation on his punt went pretty well, around 1.95 seconds. The ball was not hit outside the numbers. It was understandably right down the middle of the field. Jamie Gillan had six official punts for the Giants but I refuse to include the illegal loose ball punt because it wasn't a real punt. His five regular punts averaged about 48.2 yards and 4.57 hangtime. Two had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Two were hit outside the numbers, meaning three were hit to middle of the field. The better statistical day goes to the Giants, putting the Eagles at 2-11 on the year.

Through thirteen games, the Eagles (almost all Siposs, with a sprinkle of Elliott) are averaging 44.8 yards and 4.34 hangtime with 46% at 4.5 seconds and 41% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging about 49.9 yards and 4.58 hangtime with about 62% at 4.5 seconds and 53% hit outside the numbers.

The Giants punting operation wasn't particularly fast. I also thought their punter had an unusual, rather long drop. I don't want to say I predicted he would screw up one of his drops but something weird happening didn't seem all that far-fetched to me.

Incidentally I should note that it was obvious to me that what he did was illegal. You cannot kick a loose ball. It's a penalty. I was actually annoyed at the Fox broadcast team for not immediately recognizing this. In fact they started to go to a commercial. That's just a bad look all around. It was only then that they realized that what had happened wasn't legal. 

Furthermore that was not a drop-kick. It was not a missed field goal attempt. Let's be real here, people. It just wasn't. It was a loose ball that a player intentionally kicked. End of story.

Jake Elliott kicked off nine times. That's nice. Conditions were not great. He averaged about 66.6 yards (about a yard and a half inside the endzone) with 4.16 hangtime. Graham Gano only kicked off three times and appeared to intentionally kick the ball short. He's a great kicker with a powerful leg, and I have no doubt he could have peppered the back of the endzone if he had wanted to. But he jabbed at the ball in an unusual manner, indicating that it was strategy to kick the ball short to induce the Eagles to return the ball. I can't say I'd blame them for that. At any rate, he averaged about 64.7 yards with 4.11 hangtime.

On the season, Elliott is averaging about 69.6 yard and 4.09 hangtime. The Eagles are averaging about 70.1 yards and 4.14 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 67.3 yards and 4.13 hangtime.

Elliott made both of his field goal attempts with Britain Covey as the holder. I had speculated that Gardner Minshew would be the replacement but Covey made sense too. His expected value on those kicks was about 1.75. On the season he's now 11-of-13 (and thirteen is not a lot of attempts, which shows how good our offense has been this year) from distances with an expectancy of about 10.6. So he's plus 0.4, meaning he's earned the Eagles about 1.2 points above expected value. The average distance of his kicks is only 36.6 yards, which is more than two yards below what is generally the league average. His Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2278, which ranks twentieth in the league and is 0.09 standard deviations below the mean. The league average is 2282. The rating of Eagles Opponents remains at 2289, which would rank seventeenth and is .17 standard deviations above the mean.

The current Top Five kickers are Tucker (2421, 3.35 STD); Gano (2376, 2.27); Carlson (2350, 1.64); Myers (2342, 1.45); and Koo (2334, 1.26). The Bottom Five kickers are McLaughlin (2233, -1.17); Dicker (2229, -1.27); Patterson (2228, -1.29); Crosby (2208, -1.78); and York (2207, -1.80).

Other stuff:

* Zach Pascal made a solid tackle on the opening kickoff.

* Christian Elliss once again showed great special teams ability throughout the game. He's a revelation who really catches the eye. 

* Zech McPhearson got called for a hold on a punt return, negating a pretty good play.

* The Eagles had a disaster play that just should never happen. Punting from their own two yard line, a Siposs punt was blocked. My immediate reaction was to simply take a safety, so when Siposs picked the ball and started running, I instantly thought this was a bad move. This turned out to be correct, although he did make a valiant effort to try to get the first down. Not only that but he suffered what may be a season ending injury. Tough luck. To his credit, he looked like an athlete with the ball in his hand, so there's that. In looking at the blocking, I would pin the blame on three players. Rick Lovato and Patrick Johnson allowed too much of a push up the middle. And perhaps Siposs himself could have tried to punt without taking as large of a step as he did. Incidentally the Eagles got that punt off VERY quickly (less than 1.6 seconds from the snap) so it's not like they were leisurely. But the shorter distance available, coupled with the step, along with the inside push, led to the disaster. This cannot happen in the playoffs. And yet I fear.

* Boston Scott had a big game on kick returns. One of his returns was uneventful, but he took one across the fifty and and another one out to about the thirty-seven yard line. It's nice to get a spark like that.

* A.J. Brown recovered the meaningless onside kick in the final minute.

* The Eagles have signed Brett Kern to the practice squad. He will no doubt be elevated "for free" (translation: he won't count against the 53-man roster limitation) for the next three weeks. At that point he'll have to be added to the official roster. But his PS designation will allow the Eagles some roster flexibility through December. With two key players set to return from injury, this is good.

[mattwill]

On 12/14/2022 at 8:23 AM, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Giants game. Mostly good but some bad sprinkled in.

* The Eagles have signed Brett Kern to the practice squad. He will no doubt be elevated "for free" (translation: he won't count against the 53-man roster limitation) for the next three weeks. At that point he'll have to be added to the official roster. But his PS designation will allow the Eagles some roster flexibility through December. With two key players set to return from injury, this is good.

Thanks as always Franklin.  Regarding Kern, I agree he will be elevated this week and next, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Elliott is the punter in the last two weeks.  Once the Playoffs start Practice Squad elevations reset and lose any limitations. Having Kern on the Practice Squad for the Playoffs isn’t a bad thing.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

6 hours ago, mattwill said:

Thanks as always Franklin.  Regarding Kern, I agree he will be elevated this week and next, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Elliott is the punter in the last two weeks.  Once the Playoffs start Practice Squad elevations reset and lose any limitations. Having Kern on the Practice Squad for the Playoffs isn’t a bad thing.

No. There’s no way the Eagles go into a game with Elliott as their intended punter. If Siposs is out for the year and you want to "save” Kern for the playoffs, all you would need to do is to sign another punter to your practice squad. A real punter. Even if he knows it’s only for two games, someone would certainly be willing, especially with a chance for a Super Bowl ring at the end of the rainbow. 

[JournalistMic]

It really makes you wonder why HB Boston Scott wasn't returning on special teams all season long for the Eagles with performance he had last sunday.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Bears game.

New addition Brett Kern only punted twice for the Eagles. It was not a good performance. He averaged about 41.5 yards with only 3.40 hangtime. Neither got to 4.5 seconds. One was hit outside the numbers. It also felt to me like his get-off time was a bit more ponderous than Siposs. Trenton Gill punted six times for the Bears. He averaged about 40.2 yards with 4.47 hangtime. Four of his punts had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Five were hit outside the numbers. Clearly the better statistical day goes to the Bears, putting the Eagles at 2-12 on the season as far as punting statistics go. Kern is obviously 0-1.

On the season, the Eagles as a team are averaging about 44.7 yards with 4.30 hangtime, 39% at 4.5 seconds, and 45% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging about 48.9 yards and 4.57 hangtime, with 62% at 4.5 seconds and 56% hit outside the numbers.

The Bears punting operation wasn't especially fast either. Often around 2.1 or more seconds. Maybe the cold weather impacted that somewhat.

Jake Elliott kicked off six times, including a re-kick after a penalty on the opening kickoff. He averaged about 68.0 yards with 4.18 hangtime. Trenton Gill handled the kickoff duties as well. He kicked off three times with an average of about 62.7 yards but with a very solid 4.35 hangtime. The Bears definitely tried to force the Eagles to return the ball. 

On the season, Elliott is averaging about 69.5 yards with 4.10 hangtime. The Eagles are averaging about 70.0 yards and 4.15 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 67.0 yards and 4.14 hangtime. Overall advantage to the Eagles.

It looked to me like the process on placekicks for the Eagles were a mite slower than normal, although I may be imagining it. Perhaps there is a learning curve with a new holder

Elliott made only one of his two field goal attempts. Based on the distance of those attempts, the expected value was about 1.73. On the season, he's now 12-of-15 from distances with an expectancy of about 12.33. So he's a negative 0.33, which means Elliott is at a negative one point in expected value for the season. His average attempt distance is only 36.4 yards. The league average is about 39.5 yards. So from about three yards shorter, his percentage is below the league average. His Elo Kicking Rating fell to 2258, which ranks 23rd in the league and is -0.53 standard deviations below the mean. The rating of Eagles Opponents remains at 2289, which would rank 17th. The league average is 2282.

The Top Five Kickers are Tucker (2396, 2.55 STD); Gano (2385, 2.30); Carlson (2355, 1.63); Myers (2349, 1.50); and Koo (2335, 1.19). Even with his two misses, Tucker is still the highest ranked, but for the first time in a while he isn't at least three standard deviations above the mean. The Bottom Five Kickers are Patterson (2237, -1.00); Dicker (2234, -1.07); Badgley (2224, -1.29); Crosby (2211, -1.58); and York (2178, -2.32). For a highly drafted kicker, York has been a pretty big disappointment for the Browns.

Other stuff:

* Cairo Santos didn't kick off for the Bears until the final onside attempt, a spinning ball the DeVonta Smith recovered.

* Boston Scott returned the second half kickoff all the way to about the Bears 41-yard line. Nice block by Josh Jobe.

* Jobe missed a tackle on the second Kern punt. The returner ended up getting almost twenty yards. If Jobe had been able to at least slow him down initially, it would surely have been a significantly shorter return.

* It's possible that the snap on the missed Elliott field goal was ever-so-slightly low. Maybe it impacted the kick a bit. Hard to say.

* On the Eagles final kickoff, Zach Pascal was penalized fifteen yards. I'm not sure why. It was ridiculous how quickly the Eagles allowed the Bears to come down the field and score on that draft, and it was jump started by the penalty. Not good.

* Kern has to punt better, although I'd prefer it if he doesn't have to punt at all. 

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Cowboys game. Not much going on.

The Eagles never punted. Dallas only punted once. Bryan Anger had a punt of about 57 yards and 4.79 hangtime. It was hit outside the numbers. There can be no official statistical "winner" so it goes down as a tie. This puts the Eagles record on the year at 2-12-1. Brett Kern's record goes to 0-1-1. His numbers remain the same as last week. The Eagles opponents are now at 49.0 yards and 4.57 hangtime on the season with 63% at 4.5 seconds and 56% hit outside the numbers.

Jake Elliott kicked off seven times. He averaged about 73.6 yards with 4.14 hangtime. It was his best game of the year since the opener. Kicking indoors obviously helps. Brett Maher kicked off nine times with an average of about 72.0 yards and 4.07 hangtime. On the season, Elliott is averaging about 69.8 yards and 4.10 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 67.8 yards and 4.13 hangtime. The Eagles (Elliott and Dicker combined) are averaging about 70.0 yards with 4.12 hangtime. Sadly I have to note that my calculations on the combined kicker averages have been wrong ever since the Cardinals game. Faulty logic in my formula which I just caught and will hopefully remember to correct from here on out.

Elliott made his two field goal attempts from distances with an expectancy of about 1.64. On the season, he's now 14-of-17 from distances with an expected value of 13.97. He's pretty much on par. His Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2265, which ranks 23rd in the league and is about 0.58 standard deviations below the mean. The rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2300, which would rank 11th and is about 0.41 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is 2282. 

For the first time in a very long time, Justin Tucker is no longer the league's top rated kicker. I suspect this won't last long and he'll soon return to his top spot. But at the moment, the Top Five rated kickers are Gano (2396, 2.57 STD); Tucker (2379, 2.18); Carlson (2357, 1.69); Myers (2349, 1.51); and Gay (2344, 1.40). The Bottom Five are Dicker (2235, -1.06); Patterson (2234, -1.08); Badgley (2227, -1.27); Crosby (2224, -1.31); and York (2180, -2.30).

Other stuff:

* The Cowboys had a big return on the second half kickoff that was fortunately called back because of a penalty. Curiously I sensed (and predicted) that he was going to return that ball even though it was about seven yards deep. If I had to name culprits for allowing the return, I would pin it on Wallace and Bradley. I don't particularly like either player so maybe I'm biased but that's what I saw.

* With just under six minutes left in the game, Boston Scott returned a punt from three yards deep rather than take a touchback and allow the ball to be spotted at the 25. He only got to the 23, so he basically lost two yards. I think he showed poor judgment with this decision. The hangtime on that kickoff was Maher's best of the day. Don't take that out.

[mattwill]

An interesting article on punting put together by the folks at Puntalytics.  https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2019/9/4/20850296/gross-yards-gross-the-puntalytics-primer-you-didnt-know-you-were

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Saints game.

Brett Kern punted six times. He averaged about 41.7 yards and 4.07 hangtime. None reached the 4.5 second mark. Five were hit outside the numbers. Blake Gillikin punted six times for the Saints. He averaged about 43.0 yards and 4.14 hangtime. Only one (barely) reached 4.5 seconds. All six were hit outside the numbers. Definite "win" for the Saints on this one, putting the Eagles mark on the season at 2-13-1.

In his three games, Kern has averaged about 41.6 yards and 3.90 hangtime on eight punts. The percentage of punts that reached the 4.5 mark was 0% while 75% were hit outside the numbers. Truth be told, Kern has not punted well. On the season, opponents are averaging about 48.5 yards and 4.53 hangtime with 59% at 4.5 seconds and 60% hit outside the numbers. The Eagles (Siposs/Elliott/Kern) are averaging about 44.4 yards and 4.27 hangtime. We're really at a deficit here.

Usually the Eagles are much quicker with their operation than opponents but that was not the case in this game, nor has it been since Kern has joined the team. He appears kinda deliberate with his mechanics. I'm talking about 2.10 seconds from snap to when the ball hits his foot. With Siposs (and Johnston before him), the Eagles were often around 1.90 seconds. Meanwhile the Saints were very good with this. They were consistently around 1.95 seconds in this game. Good job by them.

Jake Elliott kicked off only three times. He averaged about 71.0 yards with 4.03 hangtime. Wil Lutz kicked off five times with an average of about 69.8 yards and 4.24 hangtime. On the season, Elliott is averaging about 69.9 yards and 4.10 hangtime compared to opponents at 68.0 yards and 4.14 hangtime. The Eagles (Elliot/Dicker) are averaging about 70.0 yards and 4.11 hangtime.

Elliott made his only field goal attempt from a distance where it's only about a 47% expectation. On the season, he's now 15-of-18 from distances with an expectation of about 14.44. So he's plus .56 meaning he's earned the Eagles about a point and a half above expected value. Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2275, which ranks 21st in the league and is -0.15 standard deviations below the mean. The rating of Eagles Opponents improved to 2308, which would rank 10th in the league and is 0.58 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is 2282. The Top Five Kickers are Gano (2397, 2.56); Tucker (2384, 2.27); Carlson (2365, 1.85); Gay (2344, 1.38); and Koo (2340, 1.30). The Bottom Five are Dicker (2239, -0.85); Crosby (2237, -1.00); Badgley (2232, -1.11); Succop (2217, -1.44); and York (2184, -2.18).

Other stuff:

* The Eagles came close to having a punt blocked. Again, I think Kern looked way too slow. This concerns me moving forward. A lot. If we have a punt blocked in the playoffs, don't say I didn't warn everyone.

* Kern was nearly roughed on another punt.

* The Eagles almost roughed the Saints punter once.

* Zech McPhearson made a fine tackle on a punt.

* On one of their punts, the Eagles got away with having too many men on the field. It was after a third down long pass towards the New Orleans sideline to DeVonta Smith that fell incomplete. By the time the Eagles were lining up to punt, the Eagles had two players about forty yards downfield who were walking toward the Eagles sideline while still in the field of play. When the ball was snapped, one of them had gotten off, but the other (probably Smith) was still a few strides from the Eagles sideline. It was a flagrant infraction (even if it's not too many men on the field, certainly it would qualify as being offside). But no flag was thrown and the Saints never challenged it. It was weird.

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Giants season finale/backup game.

Brett Kern only punted twice. He averaged a pathetic 36.0 yards and 3.94 hangtime. Neither hit 4.5 seconds. Both were hit outside the numbers. Jamie Gillan punted six times for the Giants with an average of about 41.5 yards and 4.38 hangtime. Three of the six had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Three were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical day obviously goes to the Giants, putting the Eagles season mark at 2-14-1. Kern is now at 0-3-1 in his four games.

In his four games, Kern is averaging about 40.5 yards and 3.91 seconds with NONE of his punts in the air for 4.5 seconds and 80% hit outside the numbers. Basically he's hitting short, low line drives towards the sideline. That ain't good. The Eagles as a team this year are averaging (or averaged, depending on if you consider the season over) about 44.1 yards and 4.26 hangtime with 33% at 4.5 seconds and 51% hit outside the numbers. Opponents averaged about 47.9 yards and 4.52 hangtime with 58% at 4.5 seconds and 59% hit outside the numbers. Basically in every single metric, the Eagles were outpunted by their opponents. Opponents hit it farther (almost four yards), higher (about a quarter of a second) and were not only more consistent but were more able to direct the ball toward the sideline. This wasn't good. 

Kern also looks slow with his mechanics. He's definitely slower than Siposs. On the other hand, the Giants were pretty damn slow too. They were at about 2.15 seconds from snap until the moment the punter strikes the ball with his foot. I've observed this before. Gillan is slow. This might come into play soon. I hope, anyway.

Jake Elliott kicked off seven times with an average of about 65.9 yards and 4.09 hangtime. Unlike the last game when the Giants intentionally kicked it short, Graham Gano kicked his two deep kickoffs well into the endzone, averaging about 70.5 yards and 4.12 hangtime. On the season, Elliott averaged about 69.6 yards and 4.10 hangtime. The Eagles as a team averaged about 69.7 yards and 4.11 hangtime. Opponents averaged about 68.0 yards and 4.14 hangtime. Longer for us/higher for the other team.

On placekicks, both teams were around 1.35 seconds, though the Eagles were a little quicker than that a couple of times.

Elliott made all five of his field goal attempts. This might have been the best kicking game of his pro career. The expectancy on his kicks based on their respective distances was about 3.8. On the season, Elliott was 20-of-23 from distances with an expectancy of about 18.24. So he made about 1.76 kicks more than expected value, meaning he earned the Eagles about 5.28 points. His average attempt distance was 38.0 yards which is considerably less than the league average of about 39.3 yards. Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2297, which is tied for 12th in the league. He's about 0.31 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is 2283. The rating of Eagles Opponents is at 2308, which would rank tenth. That's 0.55 standard deviations above the mean. The Top Five Kickers at the conclusion of the 2022 regular season were Gano (2397, 2.49 STD); Tucker (2389, 2.31); Carlson (2373, 1.96); Koo (2351, 1.48); and Gay (2350, 1.46). The Bottom Five kickers were Crosby (2237, -1.00); Succop (2222, -1.33); Badgley (2220, -1.37); Lutz (2216, -1.46); and York (2184, -2.16). York was the only kicker in the league below the standard of 2200. Not so good for a kicker drafted in the fourth round.

Other stuff:

* A couple of Rick Lovato's kick snaps were slightly low.

* Britain Covey made a poor play on the Giants second punt. Instead of coming up to field the ball, he did his best Greg Ward impression and allowed the ball to hit the ground and roll for thirteen yards. Yeah, that ain't good.

* The Giants tried a fake field goal which surprisingly didn't work. Zech McPhearson sacked Gillan. Christian Elliss was the star of the play, however, as he covered the intended receiver downfield. 

* The Giants pulled a surprise onside kick to start the second half. K'Von Wallace nearly flubbed the recovery at the sideline. Instead of forcing the ball out of bounds which would have been good for the Eagles, he somehow managed to keep it alive for the Giants. Fortunately Nakobe Dean made the recovery.

* The Eagles allowed a big return on their final kickoff. There were multiple missed tackles inside, and Wallace lost his containment angle on the outside. I still don't trust this unit in a big spot. If I'm the other team, I'm returning every kickoff from five yards deep or closer. Make the Eagles prove they can contain you.

* Reed Blankenship was the star of the game, as he aggressively recovered the final onside kick to seal the victory.

PLAYOFF NOTE: The Giants have the advantage on special teams. While Elliott is a solid pro, Gano is an elite kicker. And while Gillan is kinda slow mechanically, he's a clearly superior punter to Kern. And I don't think that the Giants are going to allow Boston Scott to beat them on kickoff returns after he had a big game against them last month. Gano has a big leg and will be able to hit the ball deep into the endzone for touchbacks.