Latest qb school video on Hurts.

(328) Jalen Hurts Week 1 Analysis - YouTube

Shockingly, he feels differently about his performance week 1 than many people on this board.

One key takeaway is that the Eagles do a really poor job of designating a hot route on sides where there is a numerical disadvantage for the oline. This was also noticeable in the Bucs game last year.

For the Haters, there is something for them to love in the throws to Brown and Gainwell that were off target. Of course you have to grind through the parts where he is throwing on time and with good mechanics. But at least there's something for everyone in this video.

3 hours ago, downundermike said:

We actually agree on something

How does it feel to finally be right? 

4 hours ago, brkmsn said:

Well, I can't make you click on a link and understand something you don't want to understand. Based on statistical production, Mahomes had the best day. That's clear. But PFF tries to separate the other elements from each pass including what the WR does after the catch. To simplify this, a QB could come in for 1 play, make a terrible decision to throw a pass  into triple  coverage, have it go through 1 defender's hands, ricochet off another defender's helmet and travel 10 yards the other way where a receiver catches it and breaks 7 tackles in the 80 yards it takes him to score a TD. Statistically, that QB has a perfect passer rating, averages 80 yards per completion and has 100% TD percentage. Another QB can come in for one play, avoid a sack with mobility, fire a perfect deep pass that travels 58 yards in the air and hits a wide open receiver perfectly in stride only to have it dropped. His QB rating would be very low, but his pass was perfect. PFF is only rating the QB's part on the pass, not the outcome since the QB had nothing to do with the outcome. In PFF's system, Mahomes still had a very good game as a passer. They just rated several people higher (based only on the QB's part of the play). Once again, you can click on the link and they explain their system in detail using a whole bunch of clips. 

The bottom line is PFF makes up their own rules as to what they assume what is good or bad. It’s their rules and their system. That doesn’t make it right or valid. Just more people trying to tell me a sack isn’t as good as a pressure, because PFF said so. You can champion the PFF hot garbage all you like and fill Chris Collinsworth’s pockets. That’s your prerogative to do so. I’ll pass on their hot garbage. 

4 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

That is true.  Hurts led the team is rush attempts, and Sanders edged him by 6 yards for more yardage.   Up until the very last drive and Miles last carry for 24 yards, Hurts was the leader in both attempts and yards.   Then they pulled Sanders and ran it 3 times with Scott before Hurts' last legit attempt on the QB sneak.   The last attempt was just the kneel down.   So, Hurts had 16 carries.  And about half of them were designed QB runs.   That's an issue moving forward with him.

For reference... Hurts had 42% of the carries in the game.  Next closest was Sanders with 34%.

Last season, Hurts had 139 of 550 rushes (25%). Sanders 137 of 550 (25%).   Scott and Howard had 86 and 87 carries (16% each).  Finally Gainwell, et al had 101 (18%).

https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/phi/season/2021/seasontype/2

 

That percentage for Hurts is ridiculously high if there is hope of him staying healthy through the year, or ever learning how to truly be a dangerous QB from the pocket (aka, one that DCs worry about being there, not one that they try to force to play from there).

Agreed. Unfortunately it looks like Hurts has the same "Showboat gene" as Wentz. Which means less opportunities for our RBs and our WRs to get into rhythm.
 

8 hours ago, EazyEaglez said:

The bottom line is PFF makes up their own rules as to what they assume what is good or bad. It’s their rules and their system. That doesn’t make it right or valid. Just more people trying to tell me a sack isn’t as good as a pressure, because PFF said so. You can champion the PFF hot garbage all you like and fill Chris Collinsworth’s pockets. That’s your prerogative to do so. I’ll pass on their hot garbage. 

What makes their system valid is that it's becoming the tool everybody uses for all positions. Writers, analysts, and commentators all reference their grades and rankings all the time. 

Anyway, like I said in the last post, Mahomes still had a very good grade. You just have to keep in mind that each pass is graded regardless of the outcome. A couple of his TD passes don't even qualify for grades because: 

"There are many throws which fall into the "expected” category, and they will fall into the 0-graded category. Screen passes are a good example of this as we expect NFL quarterbacks to throw these passes with timing and accuracy. As always, the result of the play does not change the grade for the quarterback, whether the pass is taken for a touchdown."

Basically, Mahomes threw 4 of his TD passes from the same distance from the goal line that we scored 4 rushing TDs on.  Two weren't graded (the shovel pass and the one after that).

 

 

3 minutes ago, brkmsn said:

What makes their system valid is that it's becoming the tool everybody uses for all positions. Writers, analysts, and commentators all reference their grades and rankings all the time. 

Anyway, like I said in the last post, Mahomes still had a very good grade. You just have to keep in mind that each pass is graded regardless of the outcome. A couple of his TD passes don't even qualify for grades because: 

Anyway, like I said in the last post, Mahomes still had a very good grade. You just have to keep in mind that each pass is graded regardless of the outcome. A couple of his TD passes don't even qualify for grades because:   

"There are many throws which fall into the "expected” category, and they will fall into the 0-graded category. Screen passes are a good example of this as we expect NFL quarterbacks to throw these passes with timing and accuracy. As always, the result of the play does not change the grade for the quarterback, whether the pass is taken for a touchdown."

 

Basically, Mahomes threw 4 of his TD passes from the same distance from the goal line that we scored 4 rushing TDs on.  Two weren't graded (the shovel pass and the one after that).

 

 

Chris Collinsworth's buddies using PFF stats doesn't validate anything. Ever notice how his games are the only ones that even use them on his broadcast presentations? There are plenty of other nextgen stats that can be used over PFF and their ridiculous prices. Just because something is expensive doesn't mean it's good. Reminds me of the time when Payless opened a fake boutique and sold their shoes at a major markup and the people went on and on about how they were worth it and how high the quality was. The same 20 dollar show they charged 700 dollars for. That's PFF in a nutshell. A 20 dollar shoe they suckered a bunch of people to pay hundreds of dollars for. 

12 minutes ago, EazyEaglez said:

Chris Collinsworth's buddies using PFF stats doesn't validate anything. Ever notice how his games are the only ones that even use them on his broadcast presentations? There are plenty of other nextgen stats that can be used over PFF and their ridiculous prices. Just because something is expensive doesn't mean it's good. Reminds me of the time when Payless opened a fake boutique and sold their shoes at a major markup and the people went on and on about how they were worth it and how high the quality was. The same 20 dollar show they charged 700 dollars for. That's PFF in a nutshell. A 20 dollar shoe they suckered a bunch of people to pay hundreds of dollars for. 

Bro, at what payless are you finding shoes for 20 bucks? 😆 no but really, I get your point. PFF has established a brand, and people pay for the brand rather than honestly asses the options available. The writers and parts of the media are all in on it, putting PFF info in thier weekly articles or game analysis regardless of how reliable and valid the measurements are. I find PFF to be valuable to an extent. Take it with a grain of salt, and dont be a sucker and pay for the brand.

15 minutes ago, QBhunter58 said:

Bro, at what payless are you finding shoes for 20 bucks? 😆 no but really, I get your point. PFF has established a brand, and people pay for the brand rather than honestly asses the options available. The writers and parts of the media are all in on it, putting PFF info in thier weekly articles or game analysis regardless of how reliable and valid the measurements are. I find PFF to be valuable to an extent. Take it with a grain of salt, and dont be a sucker and pay for the brand.

Seriously Payless made a fake boutique and sold their shoes for major markups to a bunch of dopes and then interviewed them after they brought some. The people were just gushing over their heavily marked up Payless shoes until they were told what they really were. It was hilarious. 😂

13 hours ago, brkmsn said:

What makes their system valid is that it's becoming the tool everybody uses for all positions. Writers, analysts, and commentators all reference their grades and rankings all the time. 

Anyway, like I said in the last post, Mahomes still had a very good grade. You just have to keep in mind that each pass is graded regardless of the outcome. A couple of his TD passes don't even qualify for grades because: 

"There are many throws which fall into the "expected” category, and they will fall into the 0-graded category. Screen passes are a good example of this as we expect NFL quarterbacks to throw these passes with timing and accuracy. As always, the result of the play does not change the grade for the quarterback, whether the pass is taken for a touchdown."

Basically, Mahomes threw 4 of his TD passes from the same distance from the goal line that we scored 4 rushing TDs on.  Two weren't graded (the shovel pass and the one after that).

 

 

Metrics and calculations must be reevaluated frequently / periodically for merit and effectiveness.

The law of unintended consequences kicks in.

Careful making decisions based on metrics that have not been proven rock solid.

In this case, you must eyeball your answer. Does it make sense.

"Look. Jalen Hurts has a 56% completion rate and he's a top passer."

"Hmmm? Really? What's wrong with this calculation?", I would ask.

13 hours ago, EazyEaglez said:

Chris Collinsworth's buddies using PFF stats doesn't validate anything. Ever notice how his games are the only ones that even use them on his broadcast presentations? There are plenty of other nextgen stats that can be used over PFF and their ridiculous prices. Just because something is expensive doesn't mean it's good. Reminds me of the time when Payless opened a fake boutique and sold their shoes at a major markup and the people went on and on about how they were worth it and how high the quality was. The same 20 dollar show they charged 700 dollars for. That's PFF in a nutshell. A 20 dollar shoe they suckered a bunch of people to pay hundreds of dollars for. 

Good god man, I agree with you twice in two days, the board may explode.

13 hours ago, brkmsn said:

Basically, Mahomes threw 4 of his TD passes from the same distance from the goal line that we scored 4 rushing TDs on.  Two weren't graded (the shovel pass and the one after that).

This is pretty rich coming from the "a running TD counts the same as a passing TD” crowd.

13 hours ago, QBhunter58 said:

Bro, at what payless are you finding shoes for 20 bucks? 😆 no but really, I get your point. PFF has established a brand, and people pay for the brand rather than honestly asses the options available. The writers and parts of the media are all in on it, putting PFF info in thier weekly articles or game analysis regardless of how reliable and valid the measurements are. I find PFF to be valuable to an extent. Take it with a grain of salt, and dont be a sucker and pay for the brand.

I agree.  That's what they are.

14 hours ago, brkmsn said:

What makes their system valid is that it's becoming the tool everybody uses for all positions. Writers, analysts, and commentators all reference their grades and rankings all the time. 

Anyway, like I said in the last post, Mahomes still had a very good grade. You just have to keep in mind that each pass is graded regardless of the outcome. A couple of his TD passes don't even qualify for grades because: 

"There are many throws which fall into the "expected” category, and they will fall into the 0-graded category. Screen passes are a good example of this as we expect NFL quarterbacks to throw these passes with timing and accuracy. As always, the result of the play does not change the grade for the quarterback, whether the pass is taken for a touchdown."

Basically, Mahomes threw 4 of his TD passes from the same distance from the goal line that we scored 4 rushing TDs on.  Two weren't graded (the shovel pass and the one after that).

 

 

 

8 minutes ago, Shalodeep said:

 

Mahomes had TD passes from 9 yards, 3 yards, 4 yards, 2 yards, and 1 yard.

Our rushing TDs were 1 yard, 1 yard, 2 yards, 1 yard. 

Basically the same. 

13 hours ago, EazyEaglez said:

Seriously Payless made a fake boutique and sold their shoes for major markups to a bunch of dopes and then interviewed them after they brought some. The people were just gushing over their heavily marked up Payless shoes until they were told what they really were. It was hilarious. 😂

I don't remember that but believe it. P.T. Barnum was right.

18 minutes ago, TorontoEagle said:

Mahomes had TD passes from 9 yards, 3 yards, 4 yards, 2 yards, and 1 yard.

Our rushing TDs were 1 yard, 1 yard, 2 yards, 1 yard. 

Basically the same. 

So Mahomes is penalized for driving his team all the way down field and then getting it into the end zone with his arm? It's why some analytics are just people sitting around making up their own rules to justify their biases. 

45 minutes ago, Shalodeep said:

So Mahomes is penalized for driving his team all the way down field and then getting it into the end zone with his arm? It's why some analytics are just people sitting around making up their own rules to justify their biases. 

This.  Adjusted completion percentage is the dumbest thing ever.  When your adjusted completion percentage is lower than Allen's actual completion percentage, that is idiotic to even consider.

 

1 minute ago, mr_hunt said:

 

 

I would take Joe Burrow's Super Bowl appearance over any stats.

4 minutes ago, mr_hunt said:

 

I'll take the other two please 

Here's what I think is an interesting question. What NFL QB who has never yet thrown for 4,000 yards in season would you rather have than Jalen Hurts?

8 minutes ago, pgcd3 said:

Here's what I think is an interesting question. What NFL QB who has never yet thrown for 4,000 yards in season would you rather have than Jalen Hurts?

Davis Mills

21 minutes ago, pgcd3 said:

Here's what I think is an interesting question. What NFL QB who has never yet thrown for 4,000 yards in season would you rather have than Jalen Hurts?

Davis Mills, Trevor Lawrence, Kyle Murray, Lamar Jackson, mack Jones, Jimmy G, *cough* Minshew*cough*

21 minutes ago, pgcd3 said:

Here's what I think is an interesting question. What NFL QB who has never yet thrown for 4,000 yards in season would you rather have than Jalen Hurts?

No, it is a pretty dumb question actually.  Minus last years rookie class, and Jalen Hurts, find me a starter that has not thrown for 4000 yards.

7 minutes ago, downundermike said:

No, it is a pretty dumb question actually.  Minus last years rookie class, and Jalen Hurts, find me a starter that has not thrown for 4000 yards.

See list above