Final Mock (04-17-2020)

[ManchesterEagle]

4 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Yeah there's no way I give up a second to get back in to the top 10, especially not for a CB.

We need corner, we need an X receiver, we need DE, we need OL. Too many needs to be giving up a premium pick to get a CB in this year's draft. 

As we know though bud our friend Ray does what he thinks is realistic and he can see Howie doing. This isn't necessarily what he wants. 

 

3 hours ago, Ray75 said:

Thanks buddy!

Like @UK_EaglesFan89 said, I always try to envision what the Eagles will do. Although I love the first rounder they got in return for trading back, at #6 I would have taken Pitts or Chase and if both would be off the board, I would have tried to trade down a couple of spots and taken either Horn or Surtain.

What I think happened is this; Howie couldn’t refuse the offer, especially because he believed blue chip prospects like Chase and Pitts wouldn’t make it to #6. That extra first rounder will come in handy, especially if Hurts proves he’s not the guy.

He believed the drop off from a talent perspective at #12 wouldn’t be that big but now he has come to the realisation that some of his targets might not be there at all.

Bare with me. I’m under the believe they’re not targeting receivers in the first but have their eyes set on corners. Although it’s not in their DNA to take one that early, since Howie became GM he has always used his first selection to address the team’s most dire need. He’s now afraid prospects 1a and 1b will not be on the board by the time the Eagles are on the clock at #12.

Because Carolina traded for Darnold, they’re now somewhat out of the QB sweepstakes and will likely address either the OL (Sewell or Slater) or the CB position. If they pass on the latter, either Horn or Surtain will make it to #12 but to secure 1a, they still have to jump the Cowboys because they too are in the CB market and high on Horn.

Take my opinion with a grain of salt but personally I’m convinced the Eagles are targeting a CB in the first for the first time in almost two decades.

Okay - I agree with most of what you say. I think the value was to much to pass up to not take that trade. You also raise a valid point that Chase or Pitts may not have been there (Dolphins were only trading back once they had our pick secured, if we don't do deal, Dolphins could have stayed at 3 and taken either one. Falcons may take Pitts anyway and whilst Bengals should take Sewell, they could reunite Chase and Burrows. 

I also think CB is the target - agreed on that front.

BUT - here is why I think it doesn't happen:

1) Perhaps the main reason is that I just don't think there is any way that Carolina makes that trade. It's technically there or there abouts on the value chart. But remember we in effect got an extra first (and upgraded a 5th to a 4th) to go from 6-12. The Panthers would be absolute chumps if they took a low 3rd rounder (where to be honest it starts turning into a bit of a crap shoot) and a 5th next year to go from 8-12. It would take at least pick 70 and another 4th/5th IMO (even then I'm not sure the Panthers do it). I'd like to keep that high 3rd rounder. Far more likely if they move down, that they take a big offer from say the Pats.

2) Whilst we want a CB and I think that's the target, my thoughts are that Howie is relatively comfortable that come what may, a really good player is going to drop to us at 12. It's almost certain that 4 QBs will go in the first 11 picks (possibly 5). Sewell will also go top 11 as will Chase and Pitts. So that means at least two of Surtain, Horn, Waddle, Smith, Parsons and Slater will be available at 12. Personally I'm not a massive fan of Waddle as a pick, but the Eagles are in a pretty good position to take one of those guys.

3) I don't think Farley is as out of play at 12 as some people think. Also a further trade down is an option if Surtain and Horn are both gone. If the Eagles say end up with Smith or Parsons in the first, I expect them to be aggressive in trying to move up for Farley/Newcomb etc with their second pick.

So I think in all probability the Eagles do stay put. They could look to move up if they have a higher grade on Horn or Surtain than the other. (Although you can never discount Jerry Jones from making a crazy move for a skill player, I agree in all probability the Cowboys take a CB). Personally I don't think the Panthers do take a corner. Think they will try and help Darnold out with Sewell, Slater or one of the WRs.  

 

[Ray75]

42 minutes ago, ManchesterEagle said:

 

Okay - I agree with most of what you say. I think the value was to much to pass up to not take that trade. You also raise a valid point that Chase or Pitts may not have been there (Dolphins were only trading back once they had our pick secured, if we don't do deal, Dolphins could have stayed at 3 and taken either one. Falcons may take Pitts anyway and whilst Bengals should take Sewell, they could reunite Chase and Burrows. 

I also think CB is the target - agreed on that front.

BUT - here is why I think it doesn't happen:

1) Perhaps the main reason is that I just don't think there is any way that Carolina makes that trade. It's technically there or there abouts on the value chart. But remember we in effect got an extra first (and upgraded a 5th to a 4th) to go from 6-12. The Panthers would be absolute chumps if they took a low 3rd rounder (where to be honest it starts turning into a bit of a crap shoot) and a 5th next year to go from 8-12. It would take at least pick 70 and another 4th/5th IMO (even then I'm not sure the Panthers do it). I'd like to keep that high 3rd rounder. Far more likely if they move down, that they take a big offer from say the Pats.

2) Whilst we want a CB and I think that's the target, my thoughts are that Howie is relatively comfortable that come what may, a really good player is going to drop to us at 12. It's almost certain that 4 QBs will go in the first 11 picks (possibly 5). Sewell will also go top 11 as will Chase and Pitts. So that means at least two of Surtain, Horn, Waddle, Smith, Parsons and Slater will be available at 12. Personally I'm not a massive fan of Waddle as a pick, but the Eagles are in a pretty good position to take one of those guys.

3) I don't think Farley is as out of play at 12 as some people think. Also a further trade down is an option if Surtain and Horn are both gone. If the Eagles say end up with Smith or Parsons in the first, I expect them to be aggressive in trying to move up for Farley/Newcomb etc with their second pick.

So I think in all probability the Eagles do stay put. They could look to move up if they have a higher grade on Horn or Surtain than the other. (Although you can never discount Jerry Jones from making a crazy move for a skill player, I agree in all probability the Cowboys take a CB). Personally I don't think the Panthers do take a corner. Think they will try and help Darnold out with Sewell, Slater or one of the WRs.  

 

Only two things;

- forget Parsons! Never ever gonna happen!

- can’t see the Panthers going receiver. It’ll be OL or CB at #8.

[Slade]

Nice work as always Ray!! Too bad it will be the last for us until next season.

[Greenakers2]

Too easy to be agreeable.

The only gut feeling I have is that the Eagles, at 12, will have WR(s)/CB(s) available.........and then trade back to take the Mich. DE.

Maybe then they move back into the late first for a DB........but they are not going to leave themselves bereft of picks with so many holes.

 

No secret I love Waddle-but there is no reason to make fans happy when the back 7 is a complete dumpster fire.  I like what they have at WR available better than most-and think they'll pick up one (1) somewhere day 2 with the ability to push Ward as a vertical slot.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

10 hours ago, Ray75 said:

And that’s why he’s looking to trade up again.

Gain a 1st by trading down, give up a 3rd to secure your man.

Hmm fair point but then that third could also be an important piece for this team in the future. 

[Ray75]

23 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Hmm fair point but then that third could also be an important piece for this team in the future. 

You win some (1st), you lose some (3rd).

Purely hypothetical but let’s say either Pitts or Chase is available at, say, 7 or 8 and you have to give up pick 70 and some mid rounder next year. Would you do that?!

Heck, would you give up a 2nd knowing you’d get Chase and given back a 4th?! So you basically turned pick 6 and 37 in Chase, a 4th this year and a 1st next year.

Another one; would you give up pick 84 to jump Dallas to snatch the CB they’re targeting right in front of their noses?!

I know I would if I’m the GM and we’re all on the same page and in love with a specific prospect...

[Infam]

1 hour ago, Ray75 said:

You win some (1st), you lose some (3rd).

Purely hypothetical but let’s say either Pitts or Chase is available at, say, 7 or 8 and you have to give up pick 70 and some mid rounder next year. Would you do that?!

Heck, would you give up a 2nd knowing you’d get Chase and given back a 4th?! So you basically turned pick 6 and 37 in Chase, a 4th this year and a 1st next year.

Me? No. Never liked Chase that much. Would do it for Smith or Waddle in a heartbeat though. But I agree with your general point.

Quote

Another one; would you give up pick 84 to jump Dallas to snatch the CB they’re targeting right in front of their noses?!

I know I would if I’m the GM and we’re all on the same page and in love with a specific prospect...

If both Surtain and Horn are there, I'd prefer to keep the third and take the other dude. But yeah, if you think one is clearly better - you do that.

[Ray75]

8 hours ago, Infam said:

Me? No. Never liked Chase that much. Would do it for Smith or Waddle in a heartbeat though. But I agree with your general point.

If both Surtain and Horn are there, I'd prefer to keep the third and take the other dude. But yeah, if you think one is clearly better - you do that.

IMO Chase is easily the most complete receiver in the draft but to each their own. I’d maybe trade up for Waddle but probably not for Smith. Not that I don’t like him but between 10 and 15 is a good spot for him.

I wouldn’t even be surprised if Miami takes Waddle. He complements the receivers they already have on the roster better than Chase and Smith but that’s just me.

As for the CB’s, ideally at least one is on the board at #12 but it’s plausible both are gone with both Carolina and Dallas having a huge need at the position.

Best case scenario; we won’t have to trade up and one of the top receivers in Waddle or Smith and one of the top CB’s in Surtain or Horn are on the board when we’re on the clock.

My biggest fear is that they’re all gone and the BPA’s are all linemen like Paye, Barmore, Phillips, Slater, Vera-Tucker. Still wouldn’t be a bad pick but a letdown for most of us fans nonetheless.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

26 minutes ago, Ray75 said:

My biggest fear is that they’re all gone and the BPA’s are all linemen like Paye, Barmore, Phillips, Slater, Vera-Tucker. Still wouldn’t be a bad pick but a letdown for most of us fans nonetheless.

The chances are they go trenches. That's what I'm really starting to believe. I mean that's what Howie and Lurie do. It's what Andy did before Howie. 

[Ray75]

13 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

The chances are they go trenches. That's what I'm really starting to believe. I mean that's what Howie and Lurie do. It's what Andy did before Howie. 

It wouldn’t be sexy, I can tell you that, but from a value standpoint not a bad move at all. See?! I’m already talking myself into it! LOL

We have to take into account we have a bunch of aging players in the trenches.

At DE we have 32 year old BG and both Sweat and Barnett are entering contract years. Solution; Paye/Phillips.

At DT, we have nothing behind Hargrave and Cox while the latter is on the wrong side of 30 and counts for 22 million against the cap. Solution; Barmore.

Our best players on the OL are aging. If we’ve learned anything from the SB is that you can’t win games with a bad OL no matter how good your QB and weapons are. Solution; Slater/Vera-Tucker.

Dare I say it; if this is really a 2 to 3 year rebuild, any of those players would be a more valuable selection than a receiver or corner.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

15 minutes ago, Ray75 said:

It wouldn’t be sexy, I can tell you that, but from a value standpoint not a bad move at all. See?! I’m already talking myself into it! LOL

The value isn't there at #12 but trade down again? Acquire perhaps a third round pick or I don't know a second next year? That could be value couldn't it? 

Look I'm not a huge fan of it but Phillips or Barmore at say #16-20? With extra ammo next year? I'd probably take that. Although at some point they've got to use high picks on corners right? It's a tricky one. 

[Ray75]

1 hour ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

The value isn't there at #12 but trade down again? Acquire perhaps a third round pick or I don't know a second next year? That could be value couldn't it? 

Look I'm not a huge fan of it but Phillips or Barmore at say #16-20? With extra ammo next year? I'd probably take that. Although at some point they've got to use high picks on corners right? It's a tricky one. 

It takes two to tango and it’ll get harder to trade down if all the top QB’s and WR’s are gone but yeah, theoretically you could trade down into that 15-20 range and still come up with one of those prospects.

Even a guy like Greg Newsome would make sense in that range.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

2 hours ago, Ray75 said:

It takes two to tango and it’ll get harder to trade down if all the top QB’s and WR’s are gone but yeah, theoretically you could trade down into that 15-20 range and still come up with one of those prospects.

Even a guy like Greg Newsome would make sense in that range.

Thing is if there is a run on QBs and WRs then at that point a team later in the first might see an opportunity to go and get one of the other top prospects? Say... Slater or Sewell to Kansas? Just for example.

[Ray75]

4 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Thing is if there is a run on QBs and WRs then at that point a team later in the first might see an opportunity to go and get one of the other top prospects? Say... Slater or Sewell to Kansas? Just for example.

I’m gonna be honest, if one of those two is on the board, I’m not trading back! Both are longterm plug and play building blocks and surefire top 10 prospects.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

5 hours ago, Ray75 said:

I’m gonna be honest, if one of those two is on the board, I’m not trading back! Both are longterm plug and play building blocks and surefire top 10 prospects.

But do we not go with what we have at LT? Because actually there's upside there...

[Infam]

On 4/20/2021 at 6:11 PM, Ray75 said:

I’m gonna be honest, if one of those two is on the board, I’m not trading back! Both are longterm plug and play building blocks and surefire top 10 prospects.

That means: As long as 4 QBs are picked before us we are fine.

Ifeel the same way about linemen. Makes sense, is good value. But feels bad if you think this is the time to pick a stud WR or CB.

[Ray75]

23 minutes ago, Infam said:

That means: As long as 4 QBs are picked before us we are fine.

Ifeel the same way about linemen. Makes sense, is good value. But feels bad if you think this is the time to pick a stud WR or CB.

Yeah, if you wholeheartedly expect them to select a WR or CB in the first and all of a sudden the pick rolls along and it’s Rashawn Slater or Aliyah Vera-Tucker you’ll be extremely disappointed but those two linemen are really, really good and will likely be studs on an OL for the next decade. People tend to forget that.

Me?! I just want them to draft good players, man! But...I cautiously expect them to draft a corner in the first.

[Mrkingofspades]

If the Eagles trade up, I'd like it to be for Pitts if he makes it past the top 7 or so.

For me, it'd be Pitts and take a chance on Kelvin Joseph in round 2. Or trade up in the back end of the first and get Newsome.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

8 hours ago, Mrkingofspades said:

If the Eagles trade up, I'd like it to be for Pitts if he makes it past the top 7 or so.

For me, it'd be Pitts and take a chance on Kelvin Joseph in round 2. Or trade up in the back end of the first and get Newsome.

I'd certainly like that! But what are you giving up to move up to get Pitts? And what would you give up to get back in to the back end of the first?

[Ray75]

13 hours ago, Mrkingofspades said:

If the Eagles trade up, I'd like it to be for Pitts if he makes it past the top 7 or so.

For me, it'd be Pitts and take a chance on Kelvin Joseph in round 2. Or trade up in the back end of the first and get Newsome.

If Pitts and/or Chase make it past the Dolphins, Howie should definitely pick up the phone!

No.1a and b targets if the board falls favorable. Preferably you don’t give up a 2nd this year but if I had to give up a 2022 second, I would probably do it.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

37 minutes ago, Ray75 said:

If Pitts and/or Chase make it past the Dolphins, Howie should definitely pick up the phone!

No.1a and b targets if the board falls favorable. Preferably you don’t give up a 2nd this year but if I had to give up a 2022 second, I would probably do it.

Yeah I'd do that for a 2022 second given we have either 2 seconds or 3 firsts next year. I wouldn't give up a 2021 second though I don't think. I mean look I love Pitts and think he is going to be a stud but if they bring in Pitts and give away a second in the process then I don't like their chances of adding much to the CB position. Mind you for a potentially generational talent that may be worth it.

[Ray75]

47 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Yeah I'd do that for a 2022 second given we have either 2 seconds or 3 firsts next year. I wouldn't give up a 2021 second though I don't think. I mean look I love Pitts and think he is going to be a stud but if they bring in Pitts and give away a second in the process then I don't like their chances of adding much to the CB position. Mind you for a potentially generational talent that may be worth it.

The goal should be to nail 3 to 4 positions in next weeks draft, not to get one elite talent in Pitts or Chase in the first but then have to wait until the 3rd round to address another hole.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

18 minutes ago, Ray75 said:

The goal should be to nail 3 to 4 positions in next weeks draft, not to get one elite talent in Pitts or Chase in the first but then have to wait until the 3rd round to address another hole.

Um yes and no. They need to nail the draft but we know that. Do they need to nail 3 to 4 positions in this years draft given the ammo they have next year? Or actually could they go after elite prospects this year? It's a difficult one though.

[Mrkingofspades]

6 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

I'd certainly like that! But what are you giving up to move up to get Pitts? And what would you give up to get back in to the back end of the first?

Same thing Ray is giving up here, if that's how everything falls. 

[BuckroeEagle]

For all intents and purposes this is a two year draft.  The first step is to move back from #12 to say #20 & #52.  This gives us 5 picks in the first 84.  Next year we get 4 more picks in the first 50 or so.  Thats 9 picks in the first 84 over two years.  With those picks you can virtually make a complete transition from an older roster to a much younger, more talented roster.  Couple those 9 picks with the young corps of players [Hurts, Reager, Driscoll, Dillard, Sanders, Goedert, Mailata, Fulgham, Sweat, Barnett, and Singleton] already on the roster and a few aging but still productive members [Cox, Slay, Brooks, Johnson, and Hargrave] and you have an excellent foundation for a deep run playoff team.  If Hurts turns out to be elite or near-elite then you have a chance to compete for the title.  Bottom line: make sure your big guys are better than the other guy's big guys and the rest will take care of itself.