Divisional round line thread: Eagles -7.5 vs Giants

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

Does anyone know the money line at Parxx for the Giants and Jaguars? I have SB bets on the Eagles and Chiefs and will probably make some hedge bets to ensure a reasonable profit. 

[xstonr]

I'm a little nervous as I thing the Eagles peaked too early. The last few games have not looked that good. I'm hoping the Eagles get their mojo back.

[BornGreen]

On 1/16/2023 at 7:20 PM, we_gotta_believe said:

They've got no decent WRs and we have an elite pass defense. Jones won't have nearly as much space against us as he did against the Vikes.

They don’t need decent wr!  The eagles defense always seem to make one for the opposing team on game day! 

[MidMoFo]

Yahoo Sports article claims 90% of bettors are taking the points/Giants:
 

Sportsbooks will be tossing and turning in their beds this playoff weekend if the city that never sleeps covers the spread against their NFC East rivals. A whopping 90% of the money wagered by BetMGM bettors on the Giants-Eagles game is counting on New York to cover +7.5.

One Giant leap

Several factors could be contributing to the lopsided betting action pouring in on Big Blue. Chief among them is recency bias. While top-seeded Philadelphia's bye kept them off our television screens, Daniel Jones and the Giants offense ran roughshod over the Minnesota Vikings in the wild-card round, racking up 431 yards and 28 first downs en route to a 31-24 upset.

 

There's also the question of how effective QB Jalen Hurts and right tackle Lane Johnson will be as they play through injuries. Hurts returned from a shoulder sprain in Philadelphia's regular season finale versus the Giants and didn't look like the MVP candidate he was before suffering the injury, completing just 57.1% of his pass attempts, throwing a pick, and rushing for 13 yards on nine attempts against a defense resting several key starters. Johnson has missed nearly a month with a torn adductor but believes he'll play in Saturday's game, stating, "I'll make it work."

On paper, it's easy to see why Philadelphia is favored by more than a touchdown. They swept the season series, outscoring New York 70-38. The Eagles offense ranks fourth in DVOA. New York's defense ranks fourth-worst. Brian Daboll's team also owns the fourth-worst Pass Block Win Rate, while Philly's defense tops the league in Pass Rush Win Rate. Finding a metric or category in which the Giants hold any kind of advantage — much less a significant advantage — is about as rare as a Kayvon Thibodeaux apology. History shows, however, that it's a losing proposition to back top seeds in the divisional round. Giants bettors are certainly hoping that holds true this weekend.

[Thrive]

17 minutes ago, MidMoFo said:

Yahoo Sports article claims 90% of bettors are taking the points/Giants:
 

Sportsbooks will be tossing and turning in their beds this playoff weekend if the city that never sleeps covers the spread against their NFC East rivals. A whopping 90% of the money wagered by BetMGM bettors on the Giants-Eagles game is counting on New York to cover +7.5.

One Giant leap

Several factors could be contributing to the lopsided betting action pouring in on Big Blue. Chief among them is recency bias. While top-seeded Philadelphia's bye kept them off our television screens, Daniel Jones and the Giants offense ran roughshod over the Minnesota Vikings in the wild-card round, racking up 431 yards and 28 first downs en route to a 31-24 upset.

 

There's also the question of how effective QB Jalen Hurts and right tackle Lane Johnson will be as they play through injuries. Hurts returned from a shoulder sprain in Philadelphia's regular season finale versus the Giants and didn't look like the MVP candidate he was before suffering the injury, completing just 57.1% of his pass attempts, throwing a pick, and rushing for 13 yards on nine attempts against a defense resting several key starters. Johnson has missed nearly a month with a torn adductor but believes he'll play in Saturday's game, stating, "I'll make it work."

On paper, it's easy to see why Philadelphia is favored by more than a touchdown. They swept the season series, outscoring New York 70-38. The Eagles offense ranks fourth in DVOA. New York's defense ranks fourth-worst. Brian Daboll's team also owns the fourth-worst Pass Block Win Rate, while Philly's defense tops the league in Pass Rush Win Rate. Finding a metric or category in which the Giants hold any kind of advantage — much less a significant advantage — is about as rare as a Kayvon Thibodeaux apology. History shows, however, that it's a losing proposition to back top seeds in the divisional round. Giants bettors are certainly hoping that holds true this weekend.

Can someone educate me on how this works? If 90% of the money is going to NYG +7.5, why is that line still so high? 

[MidMoFo]

20 minutes ago, Thrive said:

Can someone educate me on how this works? If 90% of the money is going to NYG +7.5, why is that line still so high? 

I look for the line to drop if this the same average across other platforms. I thought 7.5 was high to start.

[Hawkeye]

21 hours ago, nipples said:

I’m not buying the "elite play” from Jones. Minnesota’s pass defense is absolute trash. 

Not just against Minnesota but over the entire back half of the season.  He's rushed for more than 700 yards and has become a legit dual threat (his nickname is Vanilla Vick).  He looks like a different player than we're used to - remember, the Giants declined his 5th year option after last year - and Daboll has put together a scheme that plays to his strengths.

Hot QBs in the playoffs are a thing, and Jones is playing a hot hand right now.  7.5 is a big number considering the Eagles health and recent form. 

[UK_EaglesFan89]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

7.5 is a big number considering the Eagles health and recent form. 

It is but then look at how quickly things can turn around. The Cowboys had a bad couple of weeks to end the year and Dak struggled but they looked really good on Monday. 

[Thrive]

Actually looks like you can take the Giants +8 in some spots.

[Hawkeye]

5 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

It is but then look at how quickly things can turn around. The Cowboys had a bad couple of weeks to end the year and Dak struggled but they looked really good on Monday. 

I understand but the Giants are red hot too.  7-2 in their last 9 games after a rough start.  Strong QB play.  A great scheme.  This game is dangerous. 

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

30 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I understand but the Giants are red hot too.  7-2 in their last 9 games after a rough start.  Strong QB play.  A great scheme.  This game is dangerous. 

I’m confused. Are you saying the New York Giants, the team the Eagles are playing on Saturday night, have only lost two of their last nine games? That isn’t the case. The Eagles beat them twice, the Vikings did once, and the Lions did too. And then there was the Thanksgiving game against Dallas that they lost.

Is that what you meant or am I misinterpreting?

[we_gotta_believe]

2 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

I’m confused. Are you saying the New York Giants, the team the Eagles are playing on Saturday night, have only lost two of their last nine games? That isn’t the case. The Eagles beat them twice, the Vikings did once, and the Lions did too. And then there was the Thanksgiving game against Dallas that they lost.

Is that what you meant or am I misinterpreting?

He means ATS

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

2 hours ago, we_gotta_believe said:

He means ATS

Okay, I guess that makes sense. Still, the idea that the Giants have been playing at a high level the past few months seems completely misguided. They blew out the Colts and played two close games with the Vikings. Other than that, meh.

i think we win comfortably if we don’t turn the ball over all over the damn place. Any kind of clean game and I feel confident.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

8 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I understand but the Giants are red hot too.  7-2 in their last 9 games after a rough start.  Strong QB play.  A great scheme.  This game is dangerous. 

Umm... think you'll find going in to the play offs they were 4-4-1... 

[we_gotta_believe]

12 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Okay, I guess that makes sense. Still, the idea that the Giants have been playing at a high level the past few months seems completely misguided. They blew out the Colts and played two close games with the Vikings. Other than that, meh.

i think we win comfortably if we don’t turn the ball over all over the damn place. Any kind of clean game and I feel confident.

He's not implying that, he's just saying they've been outplaying expectations with regards to the point spread. It's a point spread thread after all, he's not necessarily saying the Giants are gonna beat us, just that they might make it a somewhat close game (within 7pts or less.)

[Hawkeye]

9 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Umm... think you'll find going in to the play offs they were 4-4-1... 

ATS. Against the spread. The Giants are 14-4 ATS this season, 7-2 since mid November. 

[Hawkeye]

From today's New York Times.  Sharps are on the Eagles, the public on the Giants:

The line opened at 7, and sharp action on the Eagles quickly moved it to 7.5. Since then, the Giants have taken the vast majority of the money, but the line hasn’t gone back to 7 yet. It’s possible that by kickoff this spread gets even bigger, not smaller. 

[we_gotta_believe]

Just now, Hawkeye said:

From today's New York Times.  Sharps are on the Eagles, the public on the Giants:

The line opened at 7, and sharp action on the Eagles quickly moved it to 7.5. Since then, the Giants have taken the vast majority of the money, but the line hasn’t gone back to 7 yet. It’s possible that by kickoff this spread gets even bigger, not smaller. 

For most books, I expect it to settle right on +7 by kickoff. Divisional round playoff games aren't usually when books try to shade in either direction, regardless of the split between sharps and squares. Smaller margin of error for them compared to any week in the regular season with a full slate of games to compensate for any bad breaks.

[Hawkeye]

8 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

For most books, I expect it to settle right on +7 by kickoff. Divisional round playoff games aren't usually when books try to shade in either direction, regardless of the split between sharps and squares. Smaller margin of error for them compared to any week in the regular season with a full slate of games to compensate for any bad breaks.

Agreed, although you could make the case that the hook is what's pulling in the Giant money.  The public loves taking half points over the key numbers. 

[we_gotta_believe]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Agreed, although you could make the case that the hook is what's pulling in the Giant money.  The public loves taking half points over the key numbers. 

Absolutely, which is why I expect it settle back on a key number after all is said and done. Squares, collectively, have deeper pockets than the sharps and books don't want to stick their necks too far the closer we get to the super bowl.

[Arthur Jackson]

[opa-opa]

The Giants blitzed a lot last game, so does that mean using reverse psychology, they will do the opposite this game knowing we would have prepared for it?

[Cochis_Calhoun]

The line is designed to get suckers to go for the Giants covering the spread, the idea the bookies are somehow surprised and worried that 90% of the money is going on New York is absolute hooey, they know a full strength properly schemed Eagles have the Giants number by at least a score and have set the line accordingly.

There's a reason bookies always make money.

[Traveler Vic]

On 1/17/2023 at 10:19 AM, nipples said:

I’m not buying the "elite play” from Jones. Minnesota’s pass defense is absolute trash. 

IT's his running that killed Vikings. We need a spy on the QB at all times.

[we_gotta_believe]

5 hours ago, Cochis_Calhoun said:

The line is designed to get suckers to go for the Giants covering the spread, the idea the bookies are somehow surprised and worried that 90% of the money is going on New York is absolute hooey, they know a full strength properly schemed Eagles have the Giants number by at least a score and have set the line accordingly.

There's a reason bookies always make money.

fwiw, that 90% number may have been an anomaly early in the week. I'm seeing recent action coming in closer to a 60/40 split.