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Super Bowl line thread: Eagles open as 2 points favourites


D-Shiznit
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On 1/30/2023 at 8:32 AM, D-Shiznit said:

PHI and SF are the two best TEAMS in the NFL, and by quite a margin.

KC just has Mahomes who is a GOAT caliber player, hence the close spread.


LeBron just took over Micheal Jordan last nite ! Lol

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On 2/2/2023 at 9:26 PM, Hawkeye said:

The prevailing line is now Eagles -1.5 and the total is up a point to 50.5

I'm more of a blackjack and poker man, so forgive me if this is a stupid question - when betting on the over/under in football games, does it include overtime, or is the total determined at the end of regulation?

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42 minutes ago, kiwinavega said:

I'm more of a blackjack and poker man, so forgive me if this is a stupid question - when betting on the over/under in football games, does it include overtime, or is the total determined at the end of regulation?

Overtime. 

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The lines haven't moved much - maybe a little Eagles -2 in a couple of spots -  but there is a massive betting market for this game. A main trade  organization for the gaming industry predicts more than 50 million Americans will wager more than $16 billion on the game through legal platforms.  That doesn't include the international market (huge) or the old school corner bookie, a Philly tradition. 

https://www.americangaming.org/new/record-50-million-americans-to-wager-16b-on-super-bowl-lvii/

Prop bets certainly drive some of the interest for new players but despite a record amount of action on the side, total and Moneyline very little has changed in two weeks from a wagering perspective. 

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2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The lines haven't moved much - maybe a little Eagles -2 in a couple of spots -  but there is a massive betting market for this game. A main trade  organization for the gaming industry predicts more than 50 million Americans will wager more than $16 billion on the game through legal platforms.  That doesn't include the international market (huge) or the old school corner bookie, a Philly tradition. 

https://www.americangaming.org/new/record-50-million-americans-to-wager-16b-on-super-bowl-lvii/

Prop bets certainly drive some of the interest for new players but despite a record amount of action on the side, total and Moneyline very little has changed in two weeks from a wagering perspective. 

And yet, according to this site (https://sportsdata.usatoday.com/football/nfl/odds/91799), 80% of the money is going to the Eagles. Seems to me that if folks wanted to shift the line universally to -2/-2.5, it would hold up fine. Reminds me a bit of the Niners game where the Eagles were getting the lion share of the action but the line never shifted.

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4 minutes ago, Thrive said:

And yet, according to this site (https://sportsdata.usatoday.com/football/nfl/odds/91799), 80% of the money is going to the Eagles. Seems to me that if folks wanted to shift the line universally to -2/-2.5, it would hold up fine. Reminds me a bit of the Niners game where the Eagles were getting the lion share of the action but the line never shifted.

Don't be surprised if there's a move the other way too.  I think a lot of the late money will come in on KC as the public is faced with having to bet against Mahomes. Unless it does what you suggest.  

Diabolical...

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Don't think of 80% of the money going to Philly not moving the line as weird.

Think of it as 80% of the money on Philly flipped the line from KC +1.5 to Philly +1.5

I would guess that the money was 95% on Philly before it flipped and slid down to a 60/40 or closer split at the current 1.5

If it was 80/20 now then I'd expect the line to move to 2 or 2.5

(I'm not an expert but that's how it feels with the limited 3rd hand info)

 

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On 2/10/2023 at 12:04 PM, Hawkeye said:

Don't be surprised if there's a move the other way too.  I think a lot of the late money will come in on KC as the public is faced with having to bet against Mahomes. Unless it does what you suggest.  

Diabolical...

As predicted, the late money is pouring in on the Chiefs, 

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/money-just-keeps-coming-in-on-chiefs-moving-line-on-super-bowl-2727728/

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5 minutes ago, time2rock said:

Bad juju having someone other than Hawkeye starting this thread.  :ph34r:

Odd I thought the same thing. 

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