Super Bowl line thread: Eagles open as 2 points favourites

[Macho Grande]

Line will likely settle on -2.5 until we start hearing injury updates

[BenFranklin]

In my day, you placed your wagers with the cardsharps down on Front Street. 

[RunItBAck]

On 1/30/2023 at 2:42 PM, Hawkeye said:

No. It says the sharp money came in early on the Eagles when they saw a line that was off by a point. 

or the complete opposite...ever heard of reverse  line movement? 🤫

[Hawkeye]

3 hours ago, RunItBAck said:

or the complete opposite...ever heard of reverse  line movement? 🤫

Yeah, that's not what happened. This line was moved by the market.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/30/sports/football/super-bowl-odds-line.html?searchResultPosition=1

As soon as the N.F.L.’s conference championship games ended on Sunday night, bookmakers around the world announced their Super Bowl lines. Most installed the Kansas City Chiefs as the favorite over the Philadelphia Eagles, by about a point.

Gamblers disagreed. They thought the sports books had it wrong, and they pounced. Almost immediately, money began pouring in on Philadelphia, and pretty soon the line was on the move. Within an hour, the Eagles were the Super Bowl favorites. By Monday they were favored by 2 to 2.5 points.

What happened? And why did so many early bettors like Philadelphia?

The initial line should not have been a huge surprise. Most computer rankings have Kansas City a point or two better than Philadelphia. Oddsmakers who offered so-called look-ahead lines last week had suggested Kansas City — if it advanced — would be the Super Bowl favorite, by as much as 2.5 points.

But "the market flat-out disagreed,” said Brandon DuBreuil, the head of content at Covers, a sports betting information site.

[Aspiritfall]

Maybe it's just me but I think this years Eagles are better than the 2017 Eagles and the 2017 Patriots are better than this years Chiefs... I like our chances they have to go out and prove it 

[schuy7]

3 minutes ago, Aspiritfall said:

Maybe it's just me but I think this years Eagles are better than the 2017 Eagles and the 2017 Patriots are better than this years Chiefs... I like our chances they have to go out and prove it 

Agree that this Eagles teams is better than the 2017 team, but I think the '22 Chiefs are better than the '17 Patriots.

[nipples]

10 hours ago, schuy7 said:

Agree that this Eagles teams is better than the 2017 team, but I think the '22 Chiefs are better than the '17 Patriots.

I don’t know on the Chiefs… depends on health. Aren’t basically all their receivers hurt?

[Thrive]

17 minutes ago, nipples said:

I don’t know on the Chiefs… depends on health. Aren’t basically all their receivers hurt?

Most of them didn’t finish the Bengals game but I’d expect them all to make a push to play in the SB for obvious reasons. 

[RunItBAck]

15 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Yeah, that's not what happened. This line was moved by the market.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/30/sports/football/super-bowl-odds-line.html?searchResultPosition=1

As soon as the N.F.L.’s conference championship games ended on Sunday night, bookmakers around the world announced their Super Bowl lines. Most installed the Kansas City Chiefs as the favorite over the Philadelphia Eagles, by about a point.

Gamblers disagreed. They thought the sports books had it wrong, and they pounced. Almost immediately, money began pouring in on Philadelphia, and pretty soon the line was on the move. Within an hour, the Eagles were the Super Bowl favorites. By Monday they were favored by 2 to 2.5 points.

What happened? And why did so many early bettors like Philadelphia?

The initial line should not have been a huge surprise. Most computer rankings have Kansas City a point or two better than Philadelphia. Oddsmakers who offered so-called look-ahead lines last week had suggested Kansas City — if it advanced — would be the Super Bowl favorite, by as much as 2.5 points.

But "the market flat-out disagreed,” said Brandon DuBreuil, the head of content at Covers, a sports betting information site.

If you make bets based on covers info, I know you now watch others place bets because you have no money left. Another wanna-be "pro capper" site

[Aspiritfall]

12 hours ago, schuy7 said:

Agree that this Eagles teams is better than the 2017 team, but I think the '22 Chiefs are better than the '17 Patriots.

Maybe... I think the Pats had the better defense... Offense maybe the Chiefs are better... Either way I think Eagles are better than the Chiefs right now except for Mahomes and Travis but Hurts and Goedert are both really good too so I think we stack up better... Just have to go out and play better... I'm expecting a high scoring back and forth game... Team with the least mistakes wins 

[Hawkeye]

2 hours ago, RunItBAck said:

If you make bets based on covers info, I know you now watch others place bets because you have no money left. Another wanna-be "pro capper" site

Pay better attention. I'm linking to a New York Times analysis of the abrupt line move and the guy from Covers is quoted in their story. And I "have no money left" because I spend it on my other vices. 

[jsb235]

3 hours ago, Thrive said:

Most of them didn’t finish the Bengals game but I’d expect them all to make a push to play in the SB for obvious reasons. 

This is somewhat risky because if a guy can't finish the game, it means you wasted the time putting him in the install and burned a game day roster spot that could have gone to a special teams guy. 

[Hawkeye]

The prevailing line is now Eagles -1.5 and the total is up a point to 50.5

[Thrive]

https://sportsdata.usatoday.com/football/nfl/odds/91799

Based on this site, even at -1.5, the vast vast majority of the money coming in is on the Eagles. Wonder if it’s similar across the board.

[Hawkeye]

6 hours ago, Thrive said:

https://sportsdata.usatoday.com/football/nfl/odds/91799

Based on this site, even at -1.5, the vast vast majority of the money coming in is on the Eagles. Wonder if it’s similar across the board.

The money and the tickets have been on the Eagles all week. The sharps moved the market early and it never moved back.  

About 15 years ago, on the old site, I ran a weekly thread that made contrarian system picks based on how the public wagered. In essence, if the public overwhelmingly bet one side, we went the other way. It hit in the low-to-mid 50s (small sample size), which tells you a lot about how the public plays.  The proliferation of data and legalized sports betting has changed all that but I still think the public tends to tilt toward certain sides regardless of the extenuating circumstances.  

Another interesting data point is the money line.  The Chiefs were +110 and the Eagles were -130 midweek. This morning, the Chiefs are +105 and the Eagles are -120/125

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

The money and the tickets have been on the Eagles all week. The sharps moved the market early and it never moved back.  

About 15 years ago, on the old site, I ran a weekly thread that made contrarian system picks based on how the public wagered. In essence, if the public overwhelmingly bet one side, we went the other way. It hit in the low-to-mid 50s (small sample size), which tells you a lot about how the public plays.  The proliferation of data and legalized sports betting has changed all that but I still think the public tends to tilt toward certain sides regardless of the extenuating circumstances.  

Another interesting data point is the money line.  The Chiefs were +110 and the Eagles were -130 midweek. This morning, the Chiefs are +105 and the Eagles are -120/125

Just as an FYI, the money line at Parx on Friday afternoon was Eagles -122 and KC +100. It's been hovering around there for awhile.

[HaroldJackson29]

On 1/30/2023 at 7:49 AM, downundermike said:

The two best TEAMS left in the playoffs played in the NFCCG.

 

But not the two best QBs. Burrow and Mahomes are far superior to either NFC QB. 

[Thrive]

I’m seeing the o/u creep up to 51 in some places. Anyone have an idea why?

[SkippyX]

FYI, KC opened as the favorites and sharp money immediately flipped the line.

Does anyone have numbers on the results when a team is an underdog and flips to favorite for the playoffs/Super Bowl?

 

[Hawkeye]

17 hours ago, Thrive said:

I’m seeing the o/u creep up to 51 in some places. Anyone have an idea why?

Nothing specific that I've seen but the public loves to bet the over, even as Vegas inches it up.  

[Fresh_Prince]

18 hours ago, SkippyX said:

FYI, KC opened as the favorites and sharp money immediately flipped the line.

Does anyone have numbers on the results when a team is an underdog and flips to favorite for the playoffs/Super Bowl?

 

This is all I could get on that,
https://www.vsin.com/super-bowl-55-sharp-action-report-respected-money-leaning-bucs/

And from what I can tell the line moved for the Rams in for Super Bowl LVI

[jamiller]

On 2/4/2023 at 7:15 AM, Hawkeye said:

The money and the tickets have been on the Eagles all week. The sharps moved the market early and it never moved back.  

About 15 years ago, on the old site, I ran a weekly thread that made contrarian system picks based on how the public wagered. In essence, if the public overwhelmingly bet one side, we went the other way. It hit in the low-to-mid 50s (small sample size), which tells you a lot about how the public plays.  The proliferation of data and legalized sports betting has changed all that but I still think the public tends to tilt toward certain sides regardless of the extenuating circumstances.  

Another interesting data point is the money line.  The Chiefs were +110 and the Eagles were -130 midweek. This morning, the Chiefs are +105 and the Eagles are -120/125

But not enough action to move the line again?  I understand the money line is moving and has moved.  What about the point spread?  Does the lack of movement despite leaning Philly action imply oddsmakers are happy taking a position, i.e., expecting a KC win therefore willing to take on a disproportionate amount of lean Philly money? 

The explanation was not for you but for other readers.

[jamiller]

On 2/7/2023 at 8:25 AM, Hawkeye said:

Nothing specific that I've seen but the public loves to bet the over, even as Vegas inches it up.  

Almost always creeps up as it gets nearer in. People forget the crap SBs and remember the crazy ones like 52.  Also the Os get more hype (Mahomes Hurts yada yada yada infinity)

[jamiller]

On 2/6/2023 at 5:15 PM, SkippyX said:

FYI, KC opened as the favorites and sharp money immediately flipped the line.

Does anyone have numbers on the results when a team is an underdog and flips to favorite for the playoffs/Super Bowl?

 

@Hawkeye

Any historical info (I know you tracked this stuff) where flips FAVOR (or are in favor of) the better defense?  Just seems so damn logical to bet based on a stout D.  And yes, my own biases are hard at work.  It seems so LOGICAL to lean Eagles based on the DEFENSE.  KC is no slouch at D but Philly is much better.  Even at the run which is deceiving stat wise.  If you slice and dice data from after Linval and Suh were added and when Davis came back and factor in the schlock games at the end.  Our D is pretty good.

Even the LBs are top 10. 

[we_gotta_believe]

Don't get too caught up in a flip in favorites. A stiff wind can blow a line off a pick 'em. The action required to move a line from +1 to -1 is far, far, far less than the action required to move a line from -2 to -4.