EMB Blog: 2023 Offseason - NO POLITICS

[Iggles_Phan]

7 hours ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Ben Simmons is probably worse now. Amazing though the sixers had 3 of the worst contracts in the nba all on one roster at one point. Horford, Simmons and Harris. 

Amazing or the result of bad management decisions within the front office... and all trickling down from the league interfering in the team and forcing them to fire Hinkie... put Colangelo on the search committee and then hired his son... Corruption at its finest.

[Iggles_Phan]

29 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Actually... looking at it in retrospect, the Bonilla contract was actually brilliant.  It wasn't inflation adjusted, so because the payout was so spread out, the "real" cost in dollars at the time he signed was way lower than it appeared in the moment.  If they had paid him the same amount of cash during the duration of his career, it would have 'cost more' than it really did.

He signed for $29M and a 5 year contract... over $7M per year, which was the highest ever.  But, by spreading it out, they could put the balance that wasn't paid into an investment account, and likely earned more money back than they paid out to Bonilla over the life of the contract. 

I must correct myself... because I spoke out of misremembrance... ignorance or whatever...

 

Bonilla's contract had interest tied in to it... 

Since 2011, the Mets have paid Bonilla an annual $1,193,248.20 deferred salary payment on July 1, and will continue to do so through 2035. The payments stem from Bonilla's $5.9 million salary in 2000. The Mets released him that January, and because ownership believed they would make a significant profit through their investments with Bernie Madoff, they agreed to defer Bonilla's salary with 8 percent interest and spread it across 25 years from 2011-35. The $5.9 million swelled to $29.8 million.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/bobby-bonillas-famous-deferred-contract-agreement-with-mets-sells-at-auction-for-180000/#:~:text=Since 2011%2C the Mets have,%245.9 million salary in 2000.

 

[EaglePhan1986]

8 hours ago, schuy7 said:

Maybe Patricia will bring some value to us for Week 1 vs the Pats.

His best value to us would have been staying there as the OC 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Kelly Green new phone wallpaper

 

[Iggles_Phan]

29 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

Kelly Green new phone wallpaper

 

That's pretty close for the jersey, but the helmet is too dark, IMO.

 

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Bills should be tier 2. Their 2022 was a big step back, from barely beating Miami’s backup Qb to getting blown out by Cincinnati. 
 

Chargers are not at the same tier as SF/DAL/NYJ. Flip them with tier 3 Baltimore, who with a full season of Lamar and better receivers should be an upper echelon AFC team.

Flip Cleveland and Minnesota(tier5?). Minny was not a 13-win caliber team last year, but they are definitely inline with NYG who they played twice and went 1-1 in super close games. In fact, tier 3 and 4 are the same tier. NYG, SEA, MIN, DET are all about even there.

Washington is at least Falcons/Saints/Bears level. They won more games than any of them with worse QB play in the best division we’ve maybe ever seen.

TB is going to be bad without Brady, but worse than the Texans? Come on….

[Outlaw]

1 hour ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

Kelly Green new phone wallpaper

 

I’d love a matte helmet with it. 

[Alphagrand]

8 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

Bills should be tier 2. Their 2022 was a big step back, from barely beating Miami’s backup Qb to getting blown out by Cincinnati. 
 

Chargers are not at the same tier as SF/DAL/NYJ. Flip them with tier 3 Baltimore, who with a full season of Lamar and better receivers should be an upper echelon AFC team.

Flip Cleveland and Minnesota(tier5?). Minny was not a 13-win caliber team last year, but they are definitely inline with NYG who they played twice and went 1-1 in super close games. In fact, tier 3 and 4 are the same tier. NYG, SEA, MIN, DET are all about even there.

Washington is at least Falcons/Saints/Bears level. They won more games than any of them with worse QB play in the best division we’ve maybe ever seen.

TB is going to be bad without Brady, but worse than the Texans? Come on….

They have TEN, LAR, and CAR in Tier 6 More likely to finish last in the division, yet all have teams in the same division ranked at tiers below them

The best any team in the NFC South is ranked is in Tier 5 Wildcard Possibilities, yet someone WILL win the division

The Chargers are in Tier 2; they should be in Tier 5.  They're not winning the AFC West

CHI is not better than GB.

Patriots should be in Tier 6, 

 

[Iggles_Phan]

12 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

TB is going to be bad without Brady, but worse than the Texans? Come on….

They are putting their stock in Stroud.  Texans have their QB... and Will Anderson.  So there's a little draft recency bias.  BUT... being bad but having the QB in place usually catapults a team faster than anything else.  Who is the Bucs' QB?  

The Bucs may win more games, but I think they are in a deep deep hole right now.   And they don't have the draft capital in reserve that the Cards do.  

Personally, I was more shocked to see the Colts in the same tier as the Texans... the Colts made a move for an extremely raw QB... on the order of what the 49ers did with Trey Lance.  I don't think their future is very bright... their future as well as their present is quite murky to me.

[pallidrone]

10 hours ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

Okay the jags one was good. They revealed the writer who writes all their game scripts

 

 

I love that they used the dude from Ghosts as the head writer.

[Iggles_Phan]

1 minute ago, Alphagrand said:

They have TEN, LAR, and CAR in Tier 6 More likely to finish last in the division, yet all have teams in the same division ranked at tiers below them

The best any team in the NFC South is ranked is in Tier 5 Wildcard Possibilities, yet someone WILL win the division

The Chargers are in Tier 2; they should be in Tier 5.  They're not winning the AFC West

CHI is not better than GB.

Patriots should be in Tier 6, 

I agree with most of their Rankings by tier, but disagree with how they are labeled.

[Aerolithe_Lion]

29 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

They are putting their stock in Stroud.  Texans have their QB... and Will Anderson.  So there's a little draft recency bias.  BUT... being bad but having the QB in place usually catapults a team faster than anything else.  Who is the Bucs' QB?  

The Bucs may win more games, but I think they are in a deep deep hole right now.   And they don't have the draft capital in reserve that the Cards do.  

Personally, I was more shocked to see the Colts in the same tier as the Texans... the Colts made a move for an extremely raw QB... on the order of what the 49ers did with Trey Lance.  I don't think their future is very bright... their future as well as their present is quite murky to me.

But by that same concept, every rookie QB who excelled in nfl history did so with a roster ready to receive them. Luck went to a team Peyton brought to the playoffs 15 months prior. Herbert’s Chargers were still intact from the end of the Rivers days. Pickett’s Steelers hadn’t had a losing season in nearly 20 years. Dak’s Cowboys were the second best team in the NFC until Romo got hurt.

 

Houston has bottom 5 talent in the nfl right now. Awful receivers, a very lobsided Oline, and the single worst rushing attack in the AFC. He’ll be asked to throw every down to bad targets and will get hit a ton. That’s David Carr territory.

The Colts may have a coin flip QB, but they have real talent all over their team. Nice Oline, serious run game, some semblance of NFL talent at receiver, decent defense. If they didn’t have a non-HC for half the season last year, they should have won 6-8 games

[Iggles_Phan]

26 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

But by that same concept, every rookie QB who excelled in nfl history did so with a roster ready to receive them. Luck went to a team Peyton brought to the playoffs 15 months prior. Herbert’s Chargers were still intact from the end of the Rivers days. Pickett’s Steelers hadn’t had a losing season in nearly 20 years. Dak’s Cowboys were the second best team in the NFC until Romo got hurt.

Houston has bottom 5 talent in the nfl right now. Awful receivers, a very lobsided Oline, and the single worst rushing attack in the AFC. He’ll be asked to throw every down to bad targets and will get hit a ton. That’s David Carr territory.

The Colts may have a coin flip QB, but they have real talent all over their team. Nice Oline, serious run game, some semblance of NFL talent at receiver, decent defense. If they didn’t have a non-HC for half the season last year, they should have won 6-8 games

Many times that is true... but there are exceptions.  The Bengals roster was terrible when they drafted Burrow and Higgins.  Still terrible in Year 2, but with Burrow, Higgins and the addition of Chase... they made the Super Bowl in Year 2.

 

But, I think the biggest reason for the Texans being ranked so high is that they had the #2 and #3 pick and landed Stroud, considered to be a legit #2 overall selection... and Will Anderson, a guy that many considered the top prospect in the draft.   So, they are going to get a bump in terms of draft optimism.  Every top 5 pick is always a future HoF player in May of their draft year!   And I think there is also optimism about Demeco Ryans' ability to get more from the players than their talent level, and definitely more than their last coach... 🤢.   I understand the optimism around the Texans... not for 2023, but for 2024 and beyond, which is what the heading was supposed to be about. 

I think it's in the Bucs' best interest to go with Kyle Trask rather than Baker and just lean into the suckiness.

[Alphagrand]

46 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

The Colts may have a coin flip QB, but they have real talent all over their team. Nice Oline, serious run game, some semblance of NFL talent at receiver, decent defense. If they didn’t have a non-HC for half the season last year, they should have won 6-8 games

The Colts roster is pretty bad, especially on offense.  Their OL has always been overrated, but played like garbage last season and allowed 60 sacks.  Their best WR talent is Pittman and Parris Campbell -- that's junk.  That's why I think the best predictor of Anthony Richardson in 2023 is Justin Fields from 2022; they're going to have him break the pocket and run whenever he feels the need, which will be on most plays.  

[vikas83]

1 hour ago, Alphagrand said:

They have TEN, LAR, and CAR in Tier 6 More likely to finish last in the division, yet all have teams in the same division ranked at tiers below them

The best any team in the NFC South is ranked is in Tier 5 Wildcard Possibilities, yet someone WILL win the division

The Chargers are in Tier 2; they should be in Tier 5.  They're not winning the AFC West

CHI is not better than GB.

Patriots should be in Tier 6, 

 

It seems like everyone is expecting some massive leap from Fields, probably thinking he is the next Hurts. I am skeptical.

[Aerolithe_Lion]

8 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

The Colts roster is pretty bad, especially on offense.  Their OL has always been overrated, but played like garbage last season and allowed 60 sacks.  Their best WR talent is Pittman and Parris Campbell -- that's junk.  That's why I think the best predictor of Anthony Richardson in 2023 is Justin Fields from 2022; they're going to have him break the pocket and run whenever he feels the need, which will be on most plays.  

I think they’re still worlds better than 2022 Chicago. They had maybe the best run game in the NFL before Richardson even got there with Moss and Taylor. That was a very different scenario to what Chicago was working with. Campbell is a Giant, Pittman has averaged 1000 yards receiving each of the last 2 seasons despite the mess of a QB carousel he’s been working with, and Josh Downs IMO was a fringe first round talent. He’ll be exciting to watch this season. 

[NCiggles]

1 hour ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

Bills should be tier 2. Their 2022 was a big step back, from barely beating Miami’s backup Qb to getting blown out by Cincinnati. 
 

Chargers are not at the same tier as SF/DAL/NYJ. Flip them with tier 3 Baltimore, who with a full season of Lamar and better receivers should be an upper echelon AFC team.

Flip Cleveland and Minnesota(tier5?). Minny was not a 13-win caliber team last year, but they are definitely inline with NYG who they played twice and went 1-1 in super close games. In fact, tier 3 and 4 are the same tier. NYG, SEA, MIN, DET are all about even there.

Washington is at least Falcons/Saints/Bears level. They won more games than any of them with worse QB play in the best division we’ve maybe ever seen.

TB is going to be bad without Brady, but worse than the Texans? Come on….

Washington is more likely to finish last than be a wild card team but their talent isn't bad.  I could easily see them beating out Washington or Dallas.  I wouldn't be shocked if they split with the Eagles.  

I am fine with the Chargers being where they are because of Herbert.  I think Staley has choked in playoff games just like McCarthy.  

I agree with you on the Bills.  They may finish last in that division.  

I am not sure the Broncos would move up so significantly in the standings.  They made no additions to a roster that underperformed.  Sean Payton is an upgrade but I don't think that makes them more likely to make the playoffs than to finish last again in that division.  They won 5 games and Wilson looked awful.   

I don't see how Tampa is in the lower rung given the roster.  They had a fairly talented roster that had a bunch of injuries on the o-line.  Also, how do you square them as in competition for Caleb Williams yet not more likely to finish last.  

I think Carolina has a better roster and coaches than NO and Atlanta.  Atlanta is probaly the team that's going to finish last in the NFC South.  

MN should probably be a tier 3 team.  

I don't see how you would put GB's roster and QB behind Chicago's.  

Seattle should be a tier 2 team.  The probably have the best top 3 WRs.  They improved on both sides of the ball.  Carroll is a great coach.  

[eagle45]

9 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

It seems like everyone is expecting some massive leap from Fields, probably thinking he is the next Hurts. I am skeptical.

I was very wrong about Hurts, but I also say that just makes him an anomaly.  I wonder if the NFL is going to now think that every athletic, raw QB who is a rough passer can be molded into Jalen Hurts.

There may be some element of truth to that...increased patience and commitment to coaching/teaching passing instead of falling back on tuck-and-run may result in more QB's developing into Hurts and fewer falling through the cracks.  I still think that will prove to be the exception rather than the rule...and expect that lots of teams are going to get burnt with these athletic raw passers.

[Alphagrand]

9 minutes ago, NCiggles said:

I agree with you on the Bills.  They may finish last in that division. 

 

[LeanMeanGM]

The only way Bills finish last and worse than Patriots is if Josh Allen is out for the season.

[eagle45]

The Bills are a bit unpredictable.  1 year ago, Josh Allen was mentioned in the same breath as Mahomes.  Now he's left for dead after a disappointing season and more disappointing playoffs.  1 year ago, the Bills were considered THE team to beat heading into 2022.

I actually would sell the Bills too...I think they are starting to decline.  BUT...I still wouldn't be totally shocked if they bounced back.  It's a talented team with a very talented QB.

[Alphagrand]

10 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

The Bills are a bit unpredictable.  1 year ago, Josh Allen was mentioned in the same breath as Mahomes.  Now he's left for dead after a disappointing season and more disappointing playoffs.  1 year ago, the Bills were considered THE team to beat heading into 2022.

I actually would sell the Bills too...I think they are starting to decline.  BUT...I still wouldn't be totally shocked if they bounced back.  It's a talented team with a very talented QB.

The Bills aren't as good as KC or the Bengals, but what people forget about all the Damar Hamlin stuff is he was their 3rd safety lost for an extended part of the season; they'd already lost Hyde and Poyer.  The Eagles had a noticeable dropoff when CGJ missed time.  Missing 3 guys in the middle of the defense will hurt.

I'm not a believer in Sean McDermott, and I think he likely loses his job after this season or next.  They're still better than the Pats, though, and I think they maintain the division over the Jets and Dolphins.  I'd put NYJ second and the Dolphins 3rd at present. 

[Mike030270]

I could see Allen getting injured with the way he likes to just run into tackles

[NCiggles]

19 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

It seems like everyone is expecting some massive leap from Fields, probably thinking he is the next Hurts. I am skeptical.

I think he improved but people are betting on a big leap and I don't think that's more likely than his play looking like it has.  Additionally, they don't have a very good roster.  

[Outlaw]

1 hour ago, Alphagrand said:

The Colts roster is pretty bad, especially on offense.  Their OL has always been overrated, but played like garbage last season and allowed 60 sacks.  Their best WR talent is Pittman and Parris Campbell -- that's junk.  That's why I think the best predictor of Anthony Richardson in 2023 is Justin Fields from 2022; they're going to have him break the pocket and run whenever he feels the need, which will be on most plays.  

Campbell isn't there anymore. Their top 4 wideouts this season will be Pittman, Alec Pierce (2nd year), Isaiah McKenzie, and Josh Downs from NC who they just drafted. It's not a bad WR room.