Stocks, Bonds, and General Financial Management

[matchew88]

Discuss your stock picks, ideas, cryptocurrency, etc.

 

@TEW check out Lantern Pharma

Using AI & Machine Learning to rescue / turnaround failed medicines in their testing, as well as come up with their own. Almost like techno - private equity for Healthcare companies.

Royalty Pharma is also interesting to me- a nano-funding approach to pharmaceuticals that get taken up by the big companies.

[Mike030270]

Wouldn't @vikas83 be good to get advice from on this as well?

[Ugluk]

They are both going to tell you not to buy individual stocks.

[TEW]

3 minutes ago, Ugluk said:

They are both going to tell you not to buy individual stocks.

Pretty much.

I mean look, it’s your money, do what you want with it, but if you’re not putting in a tremendous amount of time and effort then you are at a tremendous disadvantage.

[matchew88]

I think in terms of months, not day-to-day. Longer market-force trends.

[Bill]

Yeah park your money in an index fund and call it a day. 
 

If you really want to grow your money start a successful business. 

[matchew88]

Well, so much for this thread

[Dave Moss]

I think buying individual stocks is one of the enjoyable parts of investing money.  Of course sometimes you back the wrong horse.  That’s life.

[The Norseman]

Here's some of my current favorites that are preforming really well (excluding obvious ones like Amazon and Microsoft):

OGIG - ETF that focuses just on global internet giants

GDX - ETF that focuses on gold mining companies (like buying gold but pays a dividend)

SHOP - Shopify

ODFL - Old Dominion Freight Lines

KR - Kroger

LOW - Lowe's

MA - Mastercard

[The Norseman]

On 7/3/2020 at 5:51 PM, Bill said:

Yeah park your money in an index fund and call it a day. 
 

If you really want to grow your money start a successful business. 

I can see this for people who don't enjoy or understand investing.  But you're leaving a lot of money on the table doing this, especially if you're holding through the big declines like 2008 and 2020.  

[Bill]

1 minute ago, The Norseman said:

I can see this for people who don't enjoy or understand investing.  But you're leaving a lot of money on the table doing this, especially if you're holding through the big declines like 2008 and 2020.  

It’s about hedging your bets. Individual stocks go up and down, but it should be clear by now that the government will never let the stock market crash and burn, no matter how much money the Fed needs to pump out. 
 

Also regarding your stock list I would advise against having retail of any kind in your portfolio. 

[The Norseman]

21 minutes ago, Bill said:

It’s about hedging your bets. Individual stocks go up and down, but it should be clear by now that the government will never let the stock market crash and burn, no matter how much money the Fed needs to pump out. 
 

Also regarding your stock list I would advise against having retail of any kind in your portfolio. 

Wouldn't that be a reason TO invest in the market?  You lost me.  

And on your small biz argument.  50% of small businesses fail and most absorb a significant portion of the owners personal capital before they do.  Under no circumstance that I can think of is starting a small business a better strategy than investing in the market.  

You'd advise against retail stocks?    Here's Kroger vs all the major index funds that you suggest.  Maybe you should rethink that.

[TEW]

19 minutes ago, Bill said:

It’s about hedging your bets. Individual stocks go up and down, but it should be clear by now that the government will never let the stock market crash and burn, no matter how much money the Fed needs to pump out. 
 

Also regarding your stock list I would advise against having retail of any kind in your portfolio. 

The problem with this thinking is that while, yes, the Fed will attempt to re-inflate the market, you can effectively go sidewise for half a decade depending on your entry point. Now, if you want to be an active investor and can time the market, that’s another thing... but timing the market is extraordinarily difficult. It’s not the "what” (dotcom, housing, COVID-19) that’s tough to recognize, but the "when.”

Anyway, I think there are going to be some real problems with equities going forward. They’ve all juiced their share price from buybacks already, now that’s over. Pension funds have been marginal buyers for all of our lives, now that’s over and they will be sellers. That’s not even getting into all of the debt floating around, unfunded liabilities in the public sector, etc.

My take is that we are no longer at the beginning of the begging of the end. We are now in the middle of the beginning of the end. Where it goes is unknown, maybe MMT is right and central banks can just buy everything forever, but I think a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money and it will end in a very ugly way. 

[Dave Moss]

10 minutes ago, TEW said:

The problem with this thinking is that while, yes, the Fed will attempt to re-inflate the market, you can effectively go sidewise for half a decade depending on your entry point. Now, if you want to be an active investor and can time the market, that’s another thing... but timing the market is extraordinarily difficult. It’s not the "what” (dotcom, housing, COVID-19) that’s tough to recognize, but the "when.”

Anyway, I think there are going to be some real problems with equities going forward. They’ve all juiced their share price from buybacks already, now that’s over. Pension funds have been marginal buyers for all of our lives, now that’s over and they will be sellers. That’s not even getting into all of the debt floating around, unfunded liabilities in the public sector, etc.

My take is that we are no longer at the beginning of the begging of the end. We are now in the middle of the beginning of the end. Where it goes is unknown, maybe MMT is right and central banks can just buy everything forever, but I think a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money and it will end in a very ugly way. 

You’ve been saying this for years on here.

Any day now.

[The Norseman]

2 hours ago, TEW said:

The problem with this thinking is that while, yes, the Fed will attempt to re-inflate the market, you can effectively go sidewise for half a decade depending on your entry point. Now, if you want to be an active investor and can time the market, that’s another thing... but timing the market is extraordinarily difficult. It’s not the "what” (dotcom, housing, COVID-19) that’s tough to recognize, but the "when.”

Anyway, I think there are going to be some real problems with equities going forward. They’ve all juiced their share price from buybacks already, now that’s over. Pension funds have been marginal buyers for all of our lives, now that’s over and they will be sellers. That’s not even getting into all of the debt floating around, unfunded liabilities in the public sector, etc.

My take is that we are no longer at the beginning of the begging of the end. We are now in the middle of the beginning of the end. Where it goes is unknown, maybe MMT is right and central banks can just buy everything forever, but I think a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money and it will end in a very ugly way. 

Maybe you're right, maybe you're wrong.  But I'm gonna make as much money as I can between now and "the end".

[TEW]

3 hours ago, Dave Moss said:

You’ve been saying this for years on here.

Any day now. 

Do you think global reserve currencies fail over night? It takes time. It’ll probably take at least another decade, probably longer.

I’ve been saying we were at the very beginning of the end, and that was during the housing crisis when we finally went to ZIRP. That’s the first step, not the last —  "the beginning of the beginning of the end.” Now we are at the point where boomers have become a net drag on stock markets and the world is in the middle of the deepest UE crisis in recorded history. That’s the "middle of the beginning of the end.”

I’ve also pointed out the entire time that Japan is something of a looking glass into the future since they are basically 2 decades ahead of us and have managed to drag on for a prolonged period of time. I’ve also said that nothing drastic will happen until the full brunt of our unfunded liabilities kick in, and that won’t even begin to take place until roughly 2026 when Medicare starts to run out of money. In short, I was never saying, "any day now.” It was always a long term perspective.

If anyone bothers to look at all of the major moving parts, it’s pretty obvious we are headed towards history’s biggest and most obvious economic iceberg. Now, the caveat here is that debt actually matters. If you believe a country can issue infinite debt and print infinite money without consequences, well, then don’t be worried. 
 

1 hour ago, The Norseman said:

Maybe you're right, maybe you're wrong.  But I'm gonna make as much money as I can between now and "the end".

As you should. Just be careful that your pursuit of 10% doesn’t lose you 50%. Remember, markets usually move a lot more violently in the downward direction than they do the upward direction.

[hey suess]

Buy a can of Folgers. 
Make coffee.   
Hide money in can.

[Bill]

4 hours ago, The Norseman said:

Wouldn't that be a reason TO invest in the market?  You lost me.  

And on your small biz argument.  50% of small businesses fail and most absorb a significant portion of the owners personal capital before they do.  Under no circumstance that I can think of is starting a small business a better strategy than investing in the market.  

You'd advise against retail stocks?    Here's Kroger vs all the major index funds that you suggest.  Maybe you should rethink that.

Yeah but what about the quarterly EBITDA growth of Dunning-Kruger?

[Bill]

4 hours ago, TEW said:

The problem with this thinking is that while, yes, the Fed will attempt to re-inflate the market, you can effectively go sidewise for half a decade depending on your entry point. Now, if you want to be an active investor and can time the market, that’s another thing... but timing the market is extraordinarily difficult. It’s not the "what” (dotcom, housing, COVID-19) that’s tough to recognize, but the "when.”

Anyway, I think there are going to be some real problems with equities going forward. They’ve all juiced their share price from buybacks already, now that’s over. Pension funds have been marginal buyers for all of our lives, now that’s over and they will be sellers. That’s not even getting into all of the debt floating around, unfunded liabilities in the public sector, etc.

My take is that we are no longer at the beginning of the begging of the end. We are now in the middle of the beginning of the end. Where it goes is unknown, maybe MMT is right and central banks can just buy everything forever, but I think a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money and it will end in a very ugly way. 

Not that they should but honestly I don’t see a world where infinite debt and printing isn’t the norm. Everyone is just kicking the can. 

[TEW]

4 minutes ago, Bill said:

Not that they should but honestly I don’t see a world where infinite debt and printing isn’t the norm. Everyone is just kicking the can. 

Yeah, I agree. It will go on for a long time before it fails. Along the way I think we get in a weird situation where the dollar gets a lot stronger compared to other currencies even as the monetization increases.

The thing is, with reserve currency and flight to safety status, the demand for dollars is incredibly strong. It’s used for something like 70% of international trade. That means it can go on for a long, long time, but if/when it breaks, it’s going to be a spectacular collapse.

[Bill]

11 minutes ago, TEW said:

Yeah, I agree. It will go on for a long time before it fails. Along the way I think we get in a weird situation where the dollar gets a lot stronger compared to other currencies even as the monetization increases.

The thing is, with reserve currency and flight to safety status, the demand for dollars is incredibly strong. It’s used for something like 70% of international trade. That means it can go on for a long, long time, but if/when it breaks, it’s going to be a spectacular collapse.

Hopefully after I’m dead. 
 

the issue is every politician doesn’t want to be the one to fall on the sword. 

[The Norseman]

14 hours ago, TEW said:

As you should. Just be careful that your pursuit of 10% doesn’t lose you 50%. Remember, markets usually move a lot more violently in the downward direction than they do the upward direction.

Trailing stop loss orders to protect profits and stocks that pay dividends help protect against this.  Besides, I'm only about 50% in individual stocks.  The rest of my stuff is in ETFs.  I don't always hit it right and timing the dropouts is near impossible.  But there are a handful of ways to at least protect profits. 

[The Norseman]

14 hours ago, Bill said:

Yeah but what about the quarterly EBITDA growth of Dunning-Kruger?

Hahaha. Touche brother.  

[DrPhilly]

19 hours ago, Dave Moss said:

You’ve been saying this for years on here.

Any day now.

Even an arse holed clock is right twice a day

[matchew88]

Looking into Akouos- gene therapy for specific causes of senserinueral hearing loss.