It's time for a franchise to moneyball the NFL and only build around cheap QBs.

1 hour ago, brkmsn said:

Dre Greenlaw had a 69.3 PFF grade last season and people have him in the top 10 off-ball LBs. A grade of 70 from PFF is actually a good grade. Elite players are usually in the 80s. I do think Greenlaw is a bit overrated right now by some. Cunningham had a 69.4 for us last season and Morrow had a 71.5. With Cunningham and Morrow, some of their better performances were earlier in the season. Their grades dropped in the final weeks. Kyzir White had a grade, I believe (somebody with a premium PFF would need to look this up), in the 70s or around 70 with us in 2022 and his grade dropped to 58.9 last season. I believe that when you have one of the top off ball LBs like Fred Warner, it gives a boost to a solid player like Greenlaw or Kyzir White (when he played with TJ Edwards). 

All in all, our LB play last year wasn't as bad overall as people make it out to be. It was worse than 2022's LB play for us, though. When things go poorly everybody wants to point the finger. People complained that Morrow got beat by CeeDee Lamb, but does anybody really expect any LB to cover CeeDee Lamb? After losing Dean, we were forced to play Morrow out of position and forced to make him the green dot on defense. Considering all that happened, he played better than expected. Unfortunately he wasn't really a leader or anything and neither he nor Cunningham were much of a "playmaker" on defense. Devin White, so far, appears to be much more involved as a leader. He's also demonstrated playmaking ability at the NFL level in his career. While I'm still high on Dean, I can't convince anybody to give him a chance since he hasn't really shown much at the NFL level yet. Dean's recovery from last season's Lisfranc injury has opened the door for Baun to compete for that role. Until I see Baun play, I don't know what to expect.

I've mentioned in other threads that Trotter compares very similar to TJ Edwards entering the NFL. He needs to be ready and then when given an opportunity, make it hard to take him back off the field. 

good detailed analysis,  I'll throw in the Eagles defense PFFs from last year.

you don't need to pay for PFF to get the single number for every year.  You might need laptop / desktop and not phone to access it.

https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/kyzir-white/44485?season=2022

you can use the downpointing arrow to the right of season.  Kyzir had a 65.0.

My analysis of the Eagles defense last year was basically "the Eagles have way too many DBs with very low PFFs."  And "the Eagles need to get at least 1 good DB to add to the pile of DBs,  so that the Eagles wouldn't have so many bad DBs on the field.  

26 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

It's time for a franchise to moneyball the NFL and only build around cheap QBs.

multiple versatile running QBs.

44 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

It's time for a franchise to moneyball the NFL and only build around cheap QBs.

That will probably never happen, though I completely agree the Moneyball concept would tell you to build that way.  
 

If I were a GM, I would not pay a QB per the "next guy’s turn gets highest pay model” unless he was unequivocally in the ‘top 5’ amongst his peers.  I may offer a deal more proportionate to the players ability level, but until it becomes commonplace that those types of deals are actually accepted by the player, that probably would not be realistic.  So until that happens, if the QB is not easily top five, then it’s a reload situation….get someone else on a rookie deal

The problem is, there’s not enough middle-ground QB contracts in this league. It’s either top of the market, or rookie deals… There are only a couple middle contracts like Baker’s… And I think he’s still overpaid relative to what he brings to the table.

 

 

 

45 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

It's time for a franchise to moneyball the NFL and only build around cheap QBs.

I’ve been saying for years that someone is going to do it.

College QBs are a lot better than they used to be in my estimation — much higher floor. The whole athleticism also puts another spin on it.

If you’re cycling rookies through and drafting guys in the top 100 basically every year, you should be able to land a solid starter. Is that enough to win a ring?

I’m not sure, but someone will try it and eventually get lucky. 

 

 

 

 

16 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

 

 

 

Damn.  Cowboys might actually get Dak for less than $60M now.  

2 hours ago, HazletonEagle said:

Im not counting him out. I love his skillset for the motions in Moore's offense. Get him in space and its like hes returning a punt. I believe he can be a play maker.

Exactly.  Is he is going to take a roster spot anyways, they might as well get him in the slot as well and see if they can get him free.  Better option than those pointless bubble WR screens that never work and open up our best Wrs to getting injured by a defender flying in at their knees.

 

 

After Dak gets his deal there’s really only Brock Purdy I can think of who is next in line for a big deal. After him it’s Stroud. It’s going to be 2+ year period without major QB deals, mostly because the 2021 and 2022 draft classes stunk. 

1 hour ago, LeanMeanGM said:

 

That's a hell of a bet lol

Was he able to add a no trade clause?

I like Love a lot. That deal is a lot better than the ones Lawrence and Tua got from their teams.

1 hour ago, LeanMeanGM said:

 

Man, that is going out on a limb.  The Packers were 2-5 after 7 games in 2023 and Love was 57.7% passing with 11 TD and 8 INT.  The team caught fire for half a season and the Packers backed up the Brinks truck.

It will be interesting how that plays out; I’m certainly not sold on him yet — but at least he’s got potential and hasn’t doomed them yet to living with Cousins, the black Cousins (Dak), or Daniel Jones.

4 hours ago, eagle45 said:

It's time for a franchise to moneyball the NFL and only build around cheap QBs.

San Francisco has kind of been doing it with Purdy and it was basically by accident because Lance flopped. If any team can pull it off it’s probably either them or Miami with that Shanahan/McDaniel tree. Their systems are very QB friendly. 

1 hour ago, schuy7 said:

I like Love a lot. That deal is a lot better than the ones Lawrence and Tua got from their teams.

I think he’s the real deal. Went through some bumps in the first half of the season and then got his feet under him as a first year starter. He doesn’t have elite talent to work with either and he made it work, won a playoff game, and had San Francisco on the ropes in the playoffs. Jayden Reed will have a breakout year this season and if Watson can stay healthy (big if) they’ll be dangerous again. 

The 2020 QB class is for real:

4 yrs, 220 mil for Love

4 yrs, 212 mil for Tua

5 yrs, 275 mil for Burrow

5 yrs, 262 mil for Herbert

5 yrs, 255 mil for Hurts

6 hours ago, D-Shiznit said:

The 2020 QB class is for real:

4 yrs, 220 mil for Love

4 yrs, 212 mil for Tua

5 yrs, 275 mil for Burrow

5 yrs, 262 mil for Herbert

5 yrs, 255 mil for Hurts

Anyone from that year who is a bust ? 

37 minutes ago, rrfierce said:

Anyone from that year who is a bust ? 

No other QBs taken that draft until the 4th round or later

11 hours ago, LeanMeanGM said:

 

He's literally started only 19 games in his career.  19.   This is the issue with drafting a guy high and then sitting him for years.   He's not due a new contract for 2 years... but he holds out, and gets it because the Packers figure the price for QBs will only rise over the next two years to even crazier levels.    

 

The market will reset on QBs at some point when teams come to realize that this much of the cap dedicated to one position leaves the rest of the roster way too vulnerable.    I just don't know when it will happen though.

Fans: what's happening in practice? 

Social media team:

 

12 hours ago, TEW said:

I’ve been saying for years that someone is going to do it.

College QBs are a lot better than they used to be in my estimation — much higher floor. The whole athleticism also puts another spin on it.

If you’re cycling rookies through and drafting guys in the top 100 basically every year, you should be able to land a solid starter. Is that enough to win a ring?

I’m not sure, but someone will try it and eventually get lucky. 

Can't be done. QB market is what it is. 

9 hours ago, BDawk_ASamuel said:

San Francisco has kind of been doing it with Purdy and it was basically by accident because Lance flopped. If any team can pull it off it’s probably either them or Miami with that Shanahan/McDaniel tree. Their systems are very QB friendly. 

Except they just put big money into Tua.

 

Last year's playoffs had 14 teams, with Eagles, Packers and 49ers playing QBs on rookie deals in the NFC, and Texans, Dolphins and Steelers in the AFC.   6 out of 14 were rookie deals.  And some of the non-rookie deals were cheap.  Bucs led by Baker Mayfield cost less than $2M on the cap last year.  And the Browns had Watson on the roster at just under $20M in cap hit, but actually made the playoffs due to the miraculous end of the year by Joe Flacco... making peanuts.  

This year, Watson's cap number jumps to over $60M, highest in the league.  That contract looks pretty awful now.

 

The chart above is the top 10 cap hits for QB this year.  The percentage of the cap ranges from over 10%, up to 22% for Watson (nearly a quarter of the cap)!  I can't see more than 6 of them making the playoffs this year, even with the expanded playoff field.   And of the top 5... they have the lowest odds in my view.  Cardinals and Giants are dead in the water.  Rams are getting too old.  Cowboys are the Cowboys, and the Browns made the playoffs last year despite Watson, not because of him.

NFC: I see division winners being: Eagles, Lions, 49ers and Bucs.   So, the last three playoffs spots would be Packers, Seahawks, Cowboys and Rams battling it out.  Maybe the Saints find a way to shock the world.

AFC: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens and Texans would be my picks to win their divisions.  Bengals, Browns, Dolphins, Jags, and Colts battle out for the Wild Cards.  Maybe Wilson has a resurgence and the Steelers can sneak in.

Long story short...  over investing money into QB means lacking funds elsewhere and a weak roster.  Some analytics guy will go all Billy Beane.  It doesn't have to be a rookie QB all the time, but might be a retread QB like Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, or the washed up hope for a guy like Flacco.