4 minutes ago, Diehardfan said:

You people are literally mentally ill.

Oh my gosh my 401k is down 7% we are doomed to he is chicken. No matter what in your deranged heads it's Trump is wrong. You better pace yourselves before you stroke out or go postal. 1300+ more days.

Putting your hand on a burning stove makes you stupid. Pulling it off once it's been scorched only makes you slightly less stupid. It shouldn't be congratulated.

I think it's nice that diehard's caretakers let him use the internet. He shouldn't be restricted from doing any hobbies just because he's severely retarded.

1 minute ago, we_gotta_believe said:

I think it's nice that diehard's caretakers let him use the internet. He shouldn't be restricted from doing any hobbies just because he's severely retarded.

Lol the literal midget has to check in to escape his pathetic life and fill voids by trying to dunk on people online or get a win like Barho. It's truly pathetic and demonstrates how sad and mentally unstable your life is.

I suppose the mouth breathing Trumpbots here don't have a 401k, but I just checked mine... Tuck Frump.

13 minutes ago, Diehardfan said:

Lol the literal midget has to check in to escape his pathetic life and fill voids by trying to dunk on people online or get a win like Barho. It's truly pathetic and demonstrates how sad and mentally unstable your life is.

Yeah man, I just really wish I could have your life instead.

Just now, we_gotta_believe said:

Yeah man, I just really wish I could have your life instead.

Dude, your own body doesn't even like you, which is why it broke down. Type what you want, but at the end of the day, you are a short, pathetic guy in a weak body, which is why you are miserable all the time.

9 minutes ago, Gannan said:

I suppose the mouth breathing Trumpbots here don't have a 401k, but I just checked mine... Tuck Frump.

Some of us lost 5-6 figures of retirement savings.

Trumpbots maybe lost 10s of dollars.

#Trumpchickenedout

On a good note, gold is souring. Thanks t

7 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

Some of us lost 5-6 figures of retirement savings.

Trumpbots maybe lost 10s of dollars.

If you would have followed the financial advice of the firm, "MAGA, CVON & Moron,” you would have known when to buy the dip.

8 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

more major TDS, right diehard?

43 minutes ago, Alpha_TATEr said:

more major TDS, right diehard?

Musk disagreeing with him doesn't mean TDS any more than me saying I didn't like the XO to go after the guy who wrote the book or firing the NSA over the Signal chat. TDS is the ranting and raving daily at a deranged level.

1 hour ago, Diehardfan said:

TDS is the defending trumps idiocy no matter what, and kissing his ring on a daily basis.

Fixed your post, high speed.

So obviously none of you are actually interested in the economy and are just engaging in political mudslinging, but at the risk of injecting some sanity…

My advice would be to ignore the equities market and study the bond market.

Interest rate swaps on treasuries went negative back in 2023. Essentially, the bond market was telegraphing that a global recession was baked into the cake. Simply put, papering over the COVID crisis didn’t actually fix any of the physical world problems. Trump’s rash tariff policies are dragging these issues to the present and exacerbating them.

A lot of headlines are talking about de-dollarization, but I don’t think this could be farther from the truth. Essentially, we had rising yields coupled with a weaker dollar, which on face value could point that way, but the problem with the currencies is that you need to get down into the plumbing to really understand it.

If you actually look at what’s happening, dollar denominated assets are getting sold for dollars… because everyone is desperate for dollars. With the rapid shrinking of trade, the supply of dollars isn’t large enough to service the needs of foreign dollar denominated debt.

If you think about it, it’s right there in the name — "reserve” currency. This is why everyone holds so much US debt and, to a lesser extent, US equities. Well, those reserves are being tapped.

My take: bullish dollar medium/long term, bullish treasuries, bearish equities, recession of -1.75% GDP.

I also expect the European economy to have serious issues. They have a significantly older population, much lower productivity, and many of their countries already have high debt loads right as they’re planning to spend big on defense and lose some of their trade surplus with the US.

2 hours ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

Some of us lost 5-6 figures of retirement savings.

Trumpbots maybe lost 10s of dollars.

I lost more in the last 2 weeks than @greenskeeper makes in a year

9 minutes ago, Gannan said:

I lost more in the last 2 weeks than @greenskeeper makes in a year

Did you realize those losses?

15 minutes ago, TEW said:

So obviously none of you are actually interested in the economy and are just engaging in political mudslinging, but at the risk of injecting some sanity…

LOL, please tell us how well the tariffs are working. Most of us who are against tariffs, are against them regardless of who initiates them. Don’t worry, you were never in danger of injecting some sanity. 🤣🤣

Just now, Tnt4philly said:

LOL, please tell us how well the tariffs are working. Most of us who are against tariffs, are against them regardless of who initiates them. Don’t worry, you were never in danger of injecting some sanity. 🤣🤣

Please point me to where I said anything about "tariffs working.”

See, this is the problem with being a crack addict little guy — drugs are bad for reading comprehension.

Mr. 90th Percentile IQ is suddenly interested in a serious debate about the current state of the economy now that it's blatantly obvious this administration has been a straight up clown show. I guess he wants to avoid one of his many embarrassing blunders in the Russia thread, by refraining from saying "You don't think Trump knew this would happen? He planned for this!"

40 minutes ago, TEW said:

So obviously none of you are actually interested in the economy and are just engaging in political mudslinging, but at the risk of injecting some sanity…

My advice would be to ignore the equities market and study the bond market.

Interest rate swaps on treasuries went negative back in 2023. Essentially, the bond market was telegraphing that a global recession was baked into the cake. Simply put, papering over the COVID crisis didn’t actually fix any of the physical world problems. Trump’s rash tariff policies are dragging these issues to the present and exacerbating them.

A lot of headlines are talking about de-dollarization, but I don’t think this could be farther from the truth. Essentially, we had rising yields coupled with a weaker dollar, which on face value could point that way, but the problem with the currencies is that you need to get down into the plumbing to really understand it.

If you actually look at what’s happening, dollar denominated assets are getting sold for dollars… because everyone is desperate for dollars. With the rapid shrinking of trade, the supply of dollars isn’t large enough to service the needs of foreign dollar denominated debt.

If you think about it, it’s right there in the name — "reserve” currency. This is why everyone holds so much US debt and, to a lesser extent, US equities. Well, those reserves are being tapped.

My take: bullish dollar medium/long term, bullish treasuries, bearish equities, recession of -1.75% GDP.

I also expect the European economy to have serious issues. They have a significantly older population, much lower productivity, and many of their countries already have high debt loads right as they’re planning to spend big on defense and lose some of their trade surplus with the US.

That's the more bullish interpretation, and it could be correct depending on where we go from here. The other possibility is terrifying to consider, so most people don't.

For ~80 years we've operated on a global financial order predicated upon the US Dollar and its complete lack of any risk in US Government assets. It's why US debt carries a zero risk weight for bank solvency analyses -- hell, even cash has a risk weight. We survived the S&P downgrade (and yields rallied) because the market never lost its unflinching belief in the US government and markets. The natural, unending demand for USD helps keep our yields artificially low and has enabled the greatest period of economic growth in both US and world history. Basically, it's been the definition of a win-win scenario.

Part of that deal was that the US would act as a reasonable and responsible partner/leader. NATO was a part of this compact, as were trade alliances around the world. In 3 months the Trump administration has taken numerous steps to make foreign countries doubt the US commitment to global leadership -- abandoning Ukraine, declaring nonsensical tariffs on allies based on trade deficits, etc. More importantly, the entire US leadership is now viewed as completely chaotic and unreliable, which frankly is a first in the post war era. The analogy I have used for people outside finance is as follows: you (the US) have a weekly poker game at your house where you win $500 each week, but you spend $100 on pizza and beer and no one else helps pay for it. Trump is basically threatening to cancel the game because his friends won't chip in for pizza and beer and costing himself $400 a week.

The reason this is so different from Trump 1.0 is the lack of responsible, intelligent people around Trump. Mnuchin to Bessent was a downgrade, but going from Ross to Lutnick is a disaster (Lutnick is a complete clown). And Navarro has always been a buffoon, but guys like Cohn and Mnuchin limited his impact in the 1st term. It's almost impossible to overstate how insane the Liberation Day announcement was. The view that a trade deficit is definitionally a bad thing, that it means we are losing, is so intellectually ridiculous that there's no ability to have a normal conversation. It's why the Japanese left trade talks frustrated because the US couldn't even articulate an ask.

So yes, for now foreigners and others are dumping US assets (e.g., treasuries) to raise USD for making payments (dollar denominated debt, trade, etc.). The complete collapse of trade with the US will limit the quantity of incoming dollars. The unknown question is -- if/when trade comes back, will foreigners continue to take those dollars from selling the US goods and buy treasuries, or have we fundamentally cracked global confidence in US leadership? In my opinion we aren't there yet, but it is on the table for the 1st time ever.

We are at a point that actual financial leaders and professionals (Dimon as an example) need to make clear to the White House that this needs to end ASAP. Put on a show and act like you won, but the longer this goes on, the more a black swan outcome is on the table. God help us if we start seeing things like the EU making a deal with China.

51 minutes ago, TEW said:

Did you realize those losses?

Of course not. The same thing happened when we had the last dingbat republican in office, then when we got a new president, it bounced back.

"It will come down substantially, but it won’t be zero,” said Trump on Tuesday, following earlier remarks by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that he expects the tariff turmoil with China will de-escalate as the situation is unsustainable.

13 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

That's the more bullish interpretation, and it could be correct depending on where we go from here. The other possibility is terrifying to consider, so most people don't.

For ~80 years we've operated on a global financial order predicated upon the US Dollar and its complete lack of any risk in US Government assets. It's why US debt carries a zero risk weight for bank solvency analyses -- hell, even cash has a risk weight. We survived the S&P downgrade (and yields rallied) because the market never lost its unflinching belief in the US government and markets. The natural, unending demand for USD helps keep our yields artificially low and has enabled the greatest period of economic growth in both US and world history. Basically, it's been the definition of a win-win scenario.

Part of that deal was that the US would act as a reasonable and responsible partner/leader. NATO was a part of this compact, as were trade alliances around the world. In 3 months the Trump administration has taken numerous steps to make foreign countries doubt the US commitment to global leadership -- abandoning Ukraine, declaring nonsensical tariffs on allies based on trade deficits, etc. More importantly, the entire US leadership is now viewed as completely chaotic and unreliable, which frankly is a first in the post war era. The analogy I have used for people outside finance is as follows: you (the US) have a weekly poker game at your house where you win $500 each week, but you spend $100 on pizza and beer and no one else helps pay for it. Trump is basically threatening to cancel the game because his friends won't chip in for pizza and beer and costing himself $400 a week.

The reason this is so different from Trump 1.0 is the lack of responsible, intelligent people around Trump. Mnuchin to Bessent was a downgrade, but going from Ross to Lutnick is a disaster (Lutnick is a complete clown). And Navarro has always been a buffoon, but guys like Cohn and Mnuchin limited his impact in the 1st term. It's almost impossible to overstate how insane the Liberation Day announcement was. The view that a trade deficit is definitionally a bad thing, that it means we are losing, is so intellectually ridiculous that there's no ability to have a normal conversation. It's why the Japanese left trade talks frustrated because the US couldn't even articulate an ask.

So yes, for now foreigners and others are dumping US assets (e.g., treasuries) to raise USD for making payments (dollar denominated debt, trade, etc.). The complete collapse of trade with the US will limit the quantity of incoming dollars. The unknown question is -- if/when trade comes back, will foreigners continue to take those dollars from selling the US goods and buy treasuries, or have we fundamentally cracked global confidence in US leadership? In my opinion we aren't there yet, but it is on the table for the 1st time ever.

We are at a point that actual financial leaders and professionals (Dimon as an example) need to make clear to the White House that this needs to end ASAP. Put on a show and act like you won, but the longer this goes on, the more a black swan outcome is on the table. God help us if we start seeing things like the EU making a deal with China.

Sure, that risk is on the table. But how do you handicap it? Seems very unlikely to me. Does Europe really want to swap the US for China? Does that actually benefit them? If they’re concerned about reliability, is China more or less reliable? More or less good faith?

Trump is done after 2028. The CCP is virtually eternal. The UK, France, and other European countries have interests in the Pacific. Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc. are all at far more risk from China than the US.

Black Swans are named as such because they’re difficult to predict, fair enough, but if you’re Europe or Japan do you really think crashing the US and siding with China helps your interests or hurts them? Seems obvious to me that while you may hate Trump and the chaos he’s bringing, empowering China is an actual existential threat.

My guess is we’ll see trade deals start to materialize over the next three months, and a lot of the fine print is going to involve isolating China.

Just now, TEW said:

Sure, that risk is on the table. But how do you handicap it? Seems very unlikely to me. Does Europe really want to swap the US for China? Does that actually benefit them? If they’re concerned about reliability, is China more or less reliable? More or less good faith?

Trump is done after 2028. The CCP is virtually eternal. The UK, France, and other European countries have interests in the Pacific. Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc. are all at far more risk from China than the US.

Black Swans are named as such because they’re difficult to predict, fair enough, but if you’re Europe or Japan do you really think crashing the US and siding with China helps your interests or hurts them? Seems obvious to me that while you may hate Trump and the chaos he’s bringing, empowering China is an actual existential threat.

My guess is we’ll see trade deals start to materialize over the next three months, and a lot of the fine print is going to involve isolating China.

I'd say your scenario is much more likely, but it's categorically insane that mine is even on the table. The real issue is that it is 100% clear there is no plan here -- just look at the contradictory headlines over the last 24 hours (Trump yesterday China tariffs coming down, Bessent today refutes it). Anyone trying to predict what's next with any confidence is deluding himself. Capital markets are frozen still, trade is collapsing, and no one knows what the off ramp actually is at this point. Even just a long term shift to more regional trade groups and less US domination will have long term negative consequences. The good news is China is hated by most of the countries it should be in a regional alliance with -- Korea, Japan and China have over a millennia of hatred. If I were running China, I'd be offering the moon and the stars to the EU right now.

Also, if he did try and remove Powell, the odds of a meltdown go way up.