10 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

You'll get some agreement from me on semiconductors for sure -- we need them for the AI race, and we also need a hedge in case supply from Taiwan is interrupted by an invasion (which I find unlikely, but our capitulation to Russia is raising the odds). Pharmaceuticals are tougher -- most come from India, but the active pharma ingredients generally come from China. If we wanted to start large scale production of pharmaceuticals in the US, well...that's going to take decades and the costs will be massively higher (thanks FDA). The better play would be to try and multi source the APIs while building stockpiles of critical pharmaceuticals here -- this was talked about during COVID but lost steam. But onshoring pharma production is impractical.

What should keep everyone up at night is rare earths. China really has all of the supply.

I would say onshoring pharma production in the near term is impossible but in the medium to long term is necessary.

We need to vertically integrate as many industries that fall within the national security realm as possible. No, of course it’s not practical to do this in ten, much less two, years. But it needs to happen.

I’d also argue that a Taiwan invasion is much less likely now, not more likely. Green lighting production of the F-47 and ramping up production of the B-21, rapid dragon, and deploying NMESIS to the Philippines are all direct shots across the bow to China. Forcing Europe to increase its military spending will free up assets to deploy to the SCS.

So, I guess I fundamentally disagree with you on this. Nothing about Trump indicates he would capitulate to China. Quite the opposite. He’s the most openly hostile Sinophobe to hold office in my lifetime.

33 minutes ago, TEW said:

I think you’re too stupid to differentiate a joke from a serious comment, even if you recognize a comment as a joke, as you’ve demonstrated in this post.

Says the guy who was too stupid to recognize when someone is mocking him and taking a comment about "it's not socialism when we do it" so literally.

37 minutes ago, TEW said:

When have I defended Trump on his tariffs?

Seriously, can any of you read? Or do you just go into hive mind mode where anyone to the right of AOC just agrees with Trump on everything in your mind?

Nah man, you're the only who can. Can you teach us how? We're all eager to learn now that someone is finally here who can teach us!

6 minutes ago, TEW said:

Nothing about Trump indicates he would capitulate to China.

Lil bro just said this out loud a day after Trump tried to walk back his tariffs against China.

6 minutes ago, TEW said:

I would say onshoring pharma production in the near term is impossible but in the medium to long term is necessary.

We need to vertically integrate as many industries that fall within the national security realm as possible. No, of course it’s not practical to do this in ten, much less two, years. But it needs to happen.

I’d also argue that a Taiwan invasion is much less likely now, not more likely. Green lighting production of the F-47 and ramping up production of the B-21, rapid dragon, and deploying NMESIS to the Philippines are all direct shots across the bow to China. Forcing Europe to increase its military spending will free up assets to deploy to the SCS.

So, I guess I fundamentally disagree with you on this. Nothing about Trump indicates he would capitulate to China. Quite the opposite. He’s the most openly hostile Sinophobe to hold office in my lifetime.

The counterpoint is that Trump has zero understanding of why American security guarantees in general, and particular on Taiwan, exist because he doesn't understand the post war order. He's actively trying to dismantle it and retreat from the world. He has been cryptic, at best, on what his position would be.

https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-declines-answer-question-about-china-taiwan-2025-02-26/

Now Rubio did reiterate our obligations to Taiwan under the 1979 law. But, let's be honest -- anyone trying to predict Donald Trump's reaction to anything is fooling themselves. The guy changes his mind depending on who was the last person in the room. But his actions with NATO and Ukraine certainly will embolden China.

Just now, vikas83 said:

Now Rubio did reiterate our obligations to Taiwan under the 1979 law.

And if there's one thing Donald J Trump has the utmost of reverence for, it's the law!

The stupidity

11 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

The counterpoint is that Trump has zero understanding of why American security guarantees in general, and particular on Taiwan, exist because he doesn't understand the post war order. He's actively trying to dismantle it and retreat from the world. He has been cryptic, at best, on what his position would be.

https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-declines-answer-question-about-china-taiwan-2025-02-26/

Now Rubio did reiterate our obligations to Taiwan under the 1979 law. But, let's be honest -- anyone trying to predict Donald Trump's reaction to anything is fooling themselves. The guy changes his mind depending on who was the last person in the room. But his actions with NATO and Ukraine certainly will embolden China.

I disagree, again, fundamentally.

The entire point Trump and his secretaries have made is that the US needs Europe to pick up the defense burden in Europe so that US assets can focus more on China. Basically everything is built around this shift.

Integration and cooperation in the Pacific among our allied militaries are increasing, not decreasing. New systems are being deployed in the region and there is an increase in military exercises. Heck, even Hegseth went on a tour there and announced the initial implementation of joint force command in Japan.

This isn’t retreating, it’s re-prioritizing from continental Europe to the Pacific theater. And frankly, it’s necessary. Bush and Obama both asked politely for Europe to increase their defense spending. They didn’t. Now they are. Could it have been handled more tactfully? Of course. But this shift needed to be made.

see guys, like i said over and over again, even though the tariffs suck, trump is a genius for them.

If this is TEW "not defending Trump" just imagine how stupid he'd sound if he were really trying to.

5 minutes ago, TEW said:

I disagree, again, fundamentally.

The entire point Trump and his secretaries have made is that the US needs Europe to pick up the defense burden in Europe so that US assets can focus more on China. Basically everything is built around this shift.

Integration and cooperation in the Pacific among our allied militaries are increasing, not decreasing. New systems are being deployed in the region and there is an increase in military exercises. Heck, even Hegseth went on a tour there and announced the initial implementation of joint force command in Japan.

This isn’t retreating, it’s re-prioritizing from continental Europe to the Pacific theater. And frankly, it’s necessary. Bush and Obama both asked politely for Europe to increase their defense spending. They didn’t. Now they are. Could it have been handled more tactfully? Of course. But this shift needed to be made.

Are these the words of a man with a plan for China?

The guy bold face lied about negotiations and negotiated against himself in public, China called him out, and now he's just saying words to preserve his own credibility.

I don't understand how you can soak in the past 90 days and still come to the conclusion that Trump is playing 5d chess with China. How is his incompetence not completely obvious to you?

16 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

Are these the words of a man with a plan for China?

The guy bold face lied about negotiations and negotiated against himself in public, China called him out, and now he's just saying words to preserve his own credibility.

I don't understand how you can soak in the past 90 days and still come to the conclusion that Trump is playing 5d chess with China. How is his incompetence not completely obvious to you?

he's shifting the theater, brah.

24 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

How is his incompetence not completely obvious to you?

You're talking to the guy who thinks Trump has a 90th percentile IQ.

5 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

You're talking to the guy who thinks Trump has a 90th percentile IQ.

There are some people who are completely clueless... just totally in the cult tank.

Then there are others on here who know better but can't bring themselves to say what they know is true because they think it's some sort of surrender to "the left".

I was 99% sure TEW was the latter about year ago. Now he's talked me down to about 75%.

1 hour ago, Alpha_TATEr said:

see guys, like i said over and over again, even though the tariffs suck, trump is a genius for them.

His tariffs are bad policy. His reorientation of military assets is a good thing.

How hard is this to understand?

2 hours ago, vikas83 said:

supply from Taiwan is interrupted by an invasion (which I find unlikely, but our capitulation to Russia is raising the odds).

At this point China invading isn't an if it's a when.

Honestly I don't see China as just making a move on Taiwan. They're probably going to make simultaneous moves on Taiwan, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Turn a problem into a dilemma. They want Taiwan back politically, but given global trade routes they also want to absolutely lock down the SCS. Even with their island building shenanigans, they're still going to need terrain from Vietnam and the Philippines.

We can post about how we have all these wonder weapons, but TBH we didn't have the amount of weapons needed even before CENTCOM started wasting ordinance in Yemen.

For the 100th time, many of the stated goals of trump regarding the economy are endorsed by a large chunk of Americans. What most people with any sort of critical thinking ability who saw how Trump operated knew without a doubt that he's a f****** idiot and that he would in no way shape or form be able to execute toward those goals.

Anybody who's been paying attention, would know that the guy would be chaotic and reactive in his handling of a still recovering economy that was not nearly as stable and robust as the one Obama handed him.

And that's putting aside the fact that the guy committed crimes of a nature that should have not only landed him in jail, but absolutely excluded him from consideration for the highest office in the land.

Instead, you idiots voting in a guy who stored classified material in a bathroom and refuse to give it back for 18 months, forcing the DOJ to raid the house.

4 hours ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Says the guy who was too stupid to recognize when someone is mocking him and taking a comment about "it's not socialism when we do it" so literally.

TEW is one of those who always assumes he's the smartest guy in the room. He could not possibly believe someone "beneath him" would mock him.

15 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

At some point MAGA will realize that all Trump does is lie. Unfortunately, it won’t be for a while and there will be a lot more damage done in the meantime.

3 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

At some point MAGA will realize that all Trump does is lie. Unfortunately, it won’t be for a while and there will be a lot more damage done in the meantime.

At this point, it doesn't matter what they do and don't realize. They'll excuse it away anyway. The only hope we have left is that their own self interest still matters to them when the pain starts in about 3 weeks when inventory starts to dry up and prices start spiking.

13 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

At this point, it doesn't matter what they do and don't realize. They'll excuse it away anyway. The only hope we have left is that their own self interest still matters to them when the pain starts in about 3 weeks when inventory starts to dry up and prices start spiking.

They won't wake up until it really hits them at home which I suspect will be a ways out. I think it is going to take more than just some shortages on the shelves.

15 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

They won't wake up until it really hits them at home which I suspect will be a ways out. I think it is going to take more than just some shortages on the shelves.qqu

The product that left Chinese ports right before the tariffs kicked in is just now arriving in the Port of Los Angeles. It takes about 3 weeks for it to hit shelves on the east coast.

I believe that, other than electronics, there is no more product coming into the country that hasn't been tariffed. We're supposedly about 3 weeks away from really seeing the effects... which are going to hit small businesses first since they didn't have the capital to stock up before tariffs went into effect.

Another scary thing that might be right around the corner is that this current market pump that past few trading sessions might be a result of Trump privately talking to execs making up stories about negotiating with China.

If that's been happening, which is being reported on now, we might be on tap for a bit of a mini flash crash. Markets won't respond well to investors being intentionally mislead.

9 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

The product that left Chinese ports right before the tariffs kicked in is just now arriving in the Port of Los Angeles. It takes about 3 weeks for it to hit shelves on the east coast.

I believe that, other than electronics, there is no more product coming into the country that hasn't been tariffed. We're supposedly about 3 weeks away from really seeing the effects... which are going to hit small businesses first since they didn't have the capital to stock up before tariffs went into effect.

That would be the start but MAGA will deal with the issue without complaint for quite some time. I don't think they will start to turn until we get a big dose of stagflation and people really start losing jobs in a significant manner.