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5 minutes ago, paco said:

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Warren Buffet has never been in the business of "predicting crashes" so I'll need someone to explain to me what they think he's signaling. :lol:

People are trying very hard to hope a crash into existence. Don't get me wrong, it's entertaining.

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6 minutes ago, Paul852 said:

Warren Buffet has never been in the business of "predicting crashes" so I'll need someone to explain to me what they think he's signaling. :lol:

People are trying very hard to hope a crash into existence. Don't get me wrong, it's entertaining.

Ok..... but your post was strictly being dismissive of one of the greatest investors of our lifetime because of his age.  That's what I'm commenting on. 

 

My POV:  Him hording cash could mean many things.  Crash?  Maybe.  Large stock purchase in a particular sector because he sees growth?  Maybe.  It's stupid to look at this move and say "oh, OBVIOUSLY it means a crash is coming".

7 minutes ago, paco said:

Ok..... but your post was strictly being dismissive of one of the greatest investors of our lifetime because of his age.  That's what I'm commenting on. 

 

That's fair. I was being dismissive because my opinion is nobody is good at predicting crashes. Michael Burry is still trying to live off his reputation from 15 years ago and getting people all worked up.

7 minutes ago, paco said:

My POV:  Him hording cash could mean many things.  Crash?  Maybe.  Large stock purchase in a particular sector because he sees growth?  Maybe.  It's stupid to look at this move and say "oh, OBVIOUSLY it means a crash is coming".

Him holding cash means absolutely nothing if he's still holding a large percentage of stock anyway. 

 

3 minutes ago, paco said:

Ok..... but your post was strictly being dismissive of one of the greatest investors of our lifetime because of his age.  That's what I'm commenting on. 

 

My POV:  Him hording cash could mean many things.  Crash?  Maybe.  Large stock purchase in a particular sector because he sees growth?  Maybe.  It's stupid to look at this move and say "oh, OBVIOUSLY it means a crash is coming".

I assumed Paul meant that because he's so old, he could just be naturally pulling out of riskier investments as he leans more into philathropy as he nears the end of his life. I also hate tweets that say "so and so sold this much of their stock in company Y" without quantifying the position. Someone like Buffett could have sold $1B in shares and still maintain holdings that are 10x that. Sometimes you just need wind down a position you're overweighted in, without necessarily implying you think the company is about to fail.

3 minutes ago, Paul852 said:

Him holding cash means absolutely nothing if he's still holding a large percentage of stock anyway. 

beat me to it

 

EDIT: Just looked it up, he still owns $35B in BAC :lol: 

After the latest stake sale, Berkshire still remains the bank's largest shareholder, owning 903.8 million shares, worth $35.85 billion based on Tuesday's closing price.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/billionaire-investor-buffett-offloads-bank-america-shares-worth-982-mln-latest-2024-08-28/

13 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

I assumed Paul meant that because he's so old, he could just be naturally pulling out of riskier investments as he leans more into philathropy as he nears the end of his life

It was actually my point originally and I even had "Maybe he's preparing to give it away" in my post. However, I think this is just BH holdings and not something he's personally preparing for. I just don't want to place MY financial future into the hands of someone pushing 100 years old is my point. I don't know his motivations at this point.

1 minute ago, Paul852 said:

It was actually my point originally and I even had "Maybe he's preparing to give it away" in my post. However, I think this is just BH holdings and not something he's personally preparing for. I just don't want to more MY financial future into the hands of someone pushing 100 years old is my point. I don't know his motivations at this point.

Yeah I just looked it up and edited the post. They're still the largest shareholder with $35B. I thought I was using hyperbole with my 10x swag, but it's actually 35x :lol:

Buffett has been selling AAPL and BAC because they have worked and become monster positions. I wouldn't read any macro view into it.

I bought a new wheelbarrow to carry my cash around when it all goes its up and I need to buy a liter of water.

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14 minutes ago, Toastrel said:

I bought a new wheelbarrow to carry my cash around when it all goes its up and I need to buy a liter of water.

That's useful.  I suspect Buffett just wants something to line his coffin with here in a year or so.

image.png.159d8deabbf801d68ce55a6ab91ad3c5.png

 

Oh

:roll:

 

:rock:

This August crash is relentless.

33 minutes ago, Paul852 said:

This August crash is relentless.

The big boys are getting spanked!

 

Now that we can turn the page on this hellasous month what was the final damage? How much did the markets lose?

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1 hour ago, Paul852 said:

Now that we can turn the page on this hellasous month what was the final damage? How much did the markets lose?

Stay up there.  I'll let you know when it's safe for you to come down.

59 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

Stay up there.  I'll let you know when it's safe for you to come down.

I'm just mocking all the peoplw who were celebrating the dip and telling us to thank Harris for our 401ks. I hope you don't I'm being serious here :lol:

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14 minutes ago, Paul852 said:

I'm just mocking all the peoplw who were celebrating the dip and telling us to thank Harris for our 401ks. I hope you don't I'm being serious here :lol:

All good :lol:

  • 5 months later...

:ph34r:

I wouldn't expect a monster crash at the beginning of a trade war. It'll be down but nobody really has a good feeling either way how this ends yet.

In all likelihood we see a slow grind down with some up days in between. If it becomes more likely that it's not going to get resolved quickly that's when I'd think you see a crash.

35 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

I wouldn't expect a monster crash at the beginning of a trade war. It'll be down but nobody really has a good feeling either way how this ends yet.

In all likelihood we see a slow grind down with some up days in between. If it becomes more likely that it's not going to get resolved quickly that's when I'd think you see a crash.

I'd expect a massive overreaction today as it sets in. Then if the master of the deal can't negotiate himself out of the problem he created we will see a hugely crash.

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27 minutes ago, Paul852 said:

I'd expect a massive overreaction today as it sets in. Then if the master of the deal can't negotiate himself out of the problem he created we will see a hugely crash.

He has a very simple way out with Mexico/Canada.  All he has to do is claim that they've complied with his demands (even if they haven't) and voila.

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