"independent thinker" LMFAO

2 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

"independent thinker" LMFAO

He literally flipped the same time Trump started denouncing Ukraine.

1 minute ago, paco said:

He literally flipped the same time Trump started denouncing Ukraine.

He sure did and always does. I swear he is reading Laura Loomer daily and then parroting everything she says in here.

3 hours ago, DrPhilly said:

@Bill What do you know about the cheap American drones we supposedly used yesterday in Iran. Have you seen them in action or in training?

LINK

The major U.S. and Israeli bombardment of Iran on Saturday featured a U.S. Central Command task force’s first ever deployment of low-cost, one-way attack drones in combat, the command said. They were launched by CENTCOM’s Task Force Scorpion Strike, which was specifically formed to develop and deploy one-way attack drones at scale. The drones deployed for Operation Epic Fury are modeled after Iran’s Shahed drones, which have wreaked havoc on the battlefield in Ukraine and have been employed by Iran-backed militias throughout the Middle East. The task force in December successfully completed its first launch of the LUCAS drone at sea. LUCAS is an abbreviation for low-cost unmanned combat attack system. The drones have an extensive range and are designed to operate autonomously. The command did not specify how many of the one-way drones were fired or what they targeted. They were among munitions fired from "air, land and sea,” the command said. Iranian state media, citing the Red Crescent, on Saturday evening said at least 201 people had been killed and more than 700 injured. Various members of Iran’s leadership were targeted, and at least 85 people were reported killed when a girls’ school was struck in southern Iran, according to a regional governor. A spokesperson for CENTCOM said the strike on the school was being looked into. President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social that Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed in the strikes, but that the heavy and pinpoint bombing "will continue, uninterrupted throughout the week or, as long as necessary.”

LINK

As coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran continue, current and former defense officials say that while a limited strike lasting several days is feasible, sustaining a broader confrontation — one involving potentially hundreds of incoming missiles — is far more complicated.  The U.S. and Israel undertook a mission known as Operation Epic Fury, targeting Iranian leadership and military sites Saturday. Its duration is still unclear, but the campaign may go on for days, according to U.S. officials.  Sustaining operations beyond the initial window presents a more complex challenge — one shaped by a "zero-sum" competition for missile defense inventories between the Middle East and Europe.

 

Officials and analysts warn that certain U.S. missile and air-defense interceptor inventories have been severely drawn down by the relentless pace of recent operations. The strategic dilemma for the Pentagon is that the systems required to shield U.S. bases from Iranian retaliation are the same ones being depleted by the defense of Ukraine and the ongoing protection of Israel.

Iran already has fired counterattacks near U.S. positions in Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Jordan, with several host governments saying their air defense systems intercepted incoming projectiles. No U.S. service member fatalities or injuries have been reported as of Saturday, a U.S. official told Fox News Digital.  U.S. authorities have not publicly released casualty figures or formal damage assessments. During the intense June 2025 Iran–Israel conflict, U.S. forces fired more than 150 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense Interceptors — roughly a quarter of the total global inventory — and a large number of ship-based standard missiles to protect allies, according to published defense assessments.  This shortfall largely is attributed to the dual pressure of supplying Ukraine against Russian cruise missiles and the surge of batteries to the Middle East. Replenishing these high-end systems can take more than a year, analysts say, because production lines are optimized for peacetime and cannot be surged overnight.

Independent groups have noted the U.S. currently produces roughly 600–650 Patriot PAC-3 MSE missiles annually, reflecting recent contracts to boost production capacity. Analysts say that in a high-intensity war with a near-peer adversary like Iran — where multiple interceptors are often used to defeat a single incoming missile — even a year’s worth of production could be consumed in a matter of weeks, especially after recent drawdowns in Ukraine and the Middle East.  "The Department of War has everything it needs to execute any mission at the time and place of the President’s choosing and on any timeline," Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in response to readiness questions. Retired Air Force Gen. Charles Wald, former deputy commander of U.S. European Command, said the United States retains the ability to surge conventional strike munitions into the region and draw from prepositioned stocks if a campaign is ordered.   "From a conventional munition standpoint, we can always fly in more weapons from around the world," Wald told Fox News Digital. "There are a lot of weapons stored there with this type of mission in mind."  The greater concern, he acknowledged, lies on the defensive side.   "The issue will be defensive weapons — Patriot, SM-3, and the Arrow system in Israel," Wald said. "You can never have enough defense."  Regional analysts caution that in a sustained missile exchange, interceptor inventories — not offensive strike weapons — could become the binding constraint.   "There is a limit to how many THAAD missiles can be used," Israeli defense analyst Ehud Eilam said. "These are not systems you can reproduce overnight." Iran is believed to possess between 1,500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 ballistic missiles, as well as drones and shorter-range rockets capable of striking U.S. bases and Gulf energy infrastructure.  The swift Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela in January 2026 and summer 2025's 12-day exchange with Iran have reinforced confidence in American military capability. However, one former defense official cautioned that success in these tightly scoped missions can create a false sense of momentum toward action in far more complex scenarios.  "Iran is a very different problem," the official said — a large, heavily armed state with extensive missile forces and regional proxy networks that would not resemble a short, surgical operation.  Wald acknowledged that risk.   "You don’t want to get people so confident that you don’t consider the risks. It’s not going to be as clean or pure as, say, Venezuela was, or the 12-day war."

Even as the strikes continue, officials warn that retaliation from Iran and its network of allied militias could broaden the conflict. Iran’s ballistic missiles and drones — coupled with allied groups in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen — already have prompted missile salvos against U.S. bases and Gulf partners, according to defense reporting.  Experts say the 2025 conflict underscored how quickly escalation can test both defensive systems and political will.  "Once these things break, you own what follows," one former official said, underscoring the risk that missiles and proxy actions could quickly widen a limited U.S. strike.  Wald warned that even a successful military phase would not eliminate the political uncertainty.   "Bombing Iran is not going to do regime change," he said, emphasizing that air power can degrade capability but cannot guarantee a stable political outcome.

Beyond the immediate exchange, officials say the economic consequences could prove just as consequential. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply transits the Strait of Hormuz, and even limited disruption could send global energy markets sharply higher.  For Washington, the strategic calculus extends beyond the Middle East. China remains the primary long-term competitor, with the war in Ukraine already consuming significant resources.   A sustained regional conflict would draw on naval assets and air-defense systems that planners must also consider for potential future contingencies in Taiwan or North Korea.    Officials familiar with internal deliberations say President Donald Trump has sought a high degree of confidence in how an Iran contingency would unfold — a standard that becomes harder to meet in scenarios involving escalation and political fallout.

Does Iran’s submarine fleet pose any danger to US naval assets ?

AI Overview

Iran operates a diverse, asymmetric submarine fleet of 19–27 vessels, focused on littoral, coastal defense, and mining operations in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. The fleet is anchored by 3 Russian-made Kilo-class (Tariq-class) submarines, supported by over 20+ small Ghadir-class midget submarines and, more recently, indigenous Fateh-class semi-heavy submarines. 

The Nuclear Threat Initiative +2

Key Submarine Classes

• Kilo-class (Tariq-class): Three 3,000-ton, Russian-built diesel-electric submarines capable of carrying 18 torpedoes or 24 mines.

• Ghadir-class (Midget): 117-150 ton, small, and silent vessels, often based on North Korean Yono-class designs, designed for shallow water, ambush, and stealth operations.

• Fateh-class: Domestically produced~600-ton semi-heavy submarines, capable of operating at depths of over 200 meters for up to 35 days.

• Nahang-class: A small number of indigenous, slightly larger midget submarines used for special forces transport. 

  The Nuclear Threat Initiative +6

Capabilities and Strategy

• Asymmetric Warfare: Iran's strategy relies on using small, quiet, and numerous vessels to counter superior naval forces like the U.S. Navy in restricted, shallow waters.

• Armament: Iranian submarines are equipped with torpedoes, including high-speed Hoot supercavitating torpedoes, and can launch mines or submarine-launched cruise missiles.

• Location: The fleet is based around the Strait of Hormuz, with the larger Kilo-class operating in the Gulf of Oman and the smaller midgets in the shallow, tight spots of the Persian Gulf. 

  USNI News +3

11 hours ago, NOTW said:

Vance has been benched over this. Any philosophical consistency or moral dignity will not be tolerated. It is what the leader needs, when the leader needs it, no questions asked, ever.

1 hour ago, DrPhilly said:

"independent thinker" LMFAO

Haha. Dude shows up trying to fake it as a logic focused independent, gets undressed within 24 hours. Then he turns into a cave troll for a couple weeks before disappearing. Shows up 6 months later hoping nobody remembers him. Rinse wash repeat.

How convenient that we won’t have enough defense missiles for Ukraine as we need them for our bases in the ME.

22 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

How convenient that we won’t have enough defense missiles for Ukraine as we need them for our bases in the ME.

Feels worth it if Russia has been put on the defensive. Taking out Putin's friends does that. Trump foreign policy appears to mirror Putin's. All in on regime changes but without the moral put offs of being responsible for the countries you've attacked. It's a lot like US foreign policy of the 50's and 60's and it's sure to produce a wildly mixed bag of results.

33 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

How convenient that we won’t have enough defense missiles for Ukraine as we need them for our bases in the ME.

We've never had enough. The Army has always bought the minimum number possible, because they expected the Air Force to establish air superiority at a minimum and provide the backbone of air defense.

4 minutes ago, Mlodj said:

We've never had enough. The Army has always bought the minimum number possible, because they expected the Air Force to establish air superiority at a minimum and provide the backbone of air defense.

Now we REALLY don’t have enough.

13 minutes ago, dawkins4prez said:

Feels worth it if Russia has been put on the defensive. Taking out Putin's friends does that. Trump foreign policy appears to mirror Putin's. All in on regime changes but without the moral put offs of being responsible for the countries you've attacked. It's a lot like US foreign policy of the 50's and 60's and it's sure to produce a wildly mixed bag of results.

Time will tell.

George W. Trump

1 minute ago, DrPhilly said:

Time will tell.

South America is littered with horror stories caused by this type of US interventionism (Chile/Argentina/Guatemala). Another moralistic failing from US history that Trump seems intent on reviving. We've also already seen that Trump is more comfortable with dictators he gets along with than legitimate western governments that disagree. That's a bad cocktail for any of these "liberated" countries. At least Rubio has his heart in transforming Venezuela and Cuba (with what actual sustained resources to attain it god only knows). I doubt anybody will be looking out for the Iranians. They'll be on their own with equal chances of same ol shite, reformed government and total civil war collapse.

9 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

Now we REALLY don’t have enough.

The Patriot has evolved from a system designed to kill aircraft, to one with a limited ability to intercept tactical ballistic missiles, to one designed primarily to deal with tactical ballistic missiles. The Air Force could take part in that first iteration of killing aircraft, but has little to no influence on dealing with the ballistic missile threat other than killing launchers on the ground, which is small potatoes. Given that situation, the Army should have been buying way more launchers and missiles than they did. OBTW, they also need to maintain stockpiles in the Pacific where the Chinese would "make it rain" on our bases with ballistic missiles if they get serious about taking Taiwan.

9 minutes ago, dawkins4prez said:

South America is littered with horror stories caused by this type of US interventionism (Chile/Argentina/Guatemala). Another moralistic failing from US history that Trump seems intent on reviving. We've also already seen that Trump is more comfortable with dictators he gets along with than legitimate western governments that disagree. That's a bad cocktail for any of these "liberated" countries. At least Rubio has his heart in transforming Venezuela and Cuba (with what actual sustained resources to attain it god only knows). I doubt anybody will be looking out for the Iranians. They'll be on their own with equal chances of same ol shite, reformed government and total civil war collapse.

I meant with Putin

Three US soldiers dead so far

Seeing footage on BBC, for every Iranian celebrating his death, there is also an Iranian in mourning. Anyone who thinks the Iranian population is all on the side of regime change is kidding themselves.

1 hour ago, DrPhilly said:

Now we REALLY don’t have enough.

I was wondering that yesterday. How many do we keep in inventory? How long does it take to ship them to the ME?

45 minutes ago, Mlodj said:

The Patriot has evolved from a system designed to kill aircraft, to one with a limited ability to intercept tactical ballistic missiles, to one designed primarily to deal with tactical ballistic missiles. The Air Force could take part in that first iteration of killing aircraft, but has little to no influence on dealing with the ballistic missile threat other than killing launchers on the ground, which is small potatoes. Given that situation, the Army should have been buying way more launchers and missiles than they did. OBTW, they also need to maintain stockpiles in the Pacific where the Chinese would "make it rain" on our bases with ballistic missiles if they get serious about taking Taiwan.

I'm surprised they haven't evolved from the Patriot over the decades it's been in use.

8 minutes ago, Diehardfan said:

I was wondering that yesterday. How many do we keep in inventory? How long does it take to ship them to the ME?

Not enough, too long

@Diehardfan Also, you laughed when this was mentioned yesterday, but the Strait of Hormuz is essentially closed right now and the large shipping lines have stopped all passage. Oil prices are expected to immediately rise 10% to start. Hopefully this goes well and the Strait is opened again very shortly but there is a real risk we get some inflation.

11 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

@Diehardfan Also, you laughed when this was mentioned yesterday, but the Strait of Hormuz is essentially closed right now and the large shipping lines have stopped all passage. Oil prices are expected to immediately rise 10% to start. Hopefully this goes well and the Strait is opened again very shortly but there is a real risk we get some inflation.

Does that impact gas prices?

Sorry if that’s a dumb question. I have no way of knowing, I drive an EV. Being little more progressive and ahead of the curve keeps me protected from these issues.

And on the right side of history.