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EMB Blog: 2024 Regular Season (Part 2) ... and Playoffs

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4 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Imo dvoa encompasses a lot of different things. It’s more telling to me that  hurts went to the podium and straight up said all year they’ve been choppy in the passing game. Which frankly the dvoa analytics has indicated in terms of passing game. 

I'm not saying DVOA serves no purpose.  My point is some people value turnovers (and their avoidance) differently than others...and I'm sure different metrics reflect this.  I don't think I could ever say a multiple turnover game was more efficient than one with none.  But that's just me - we can agree to disagree - it's fine

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Usually the logic is any weather stuff favors the underdog because it brings an extra element into play, but I think some rain/little snow on Sunday could actually benefit the Eagles. The Rams are a team based on speed and timing and the Eagles are gritty and beat people up. Ultimately, it's not supposed to be heavy, if we even get rain or snow at all, so it's likely not a huge factor one way or the other, but if it is, I think it benefits the Eagles.

18 minutes ago, Outlaw said:

I suspect you're pretty close to that age as well, using the term fisticuffs.

Bare-knuckle boxing - Wikipedia

 

Bingo GIFs - Find & Share on GIPHY

7 minutes ago, McMVP said:

I'm not saying DVOA serves no purpose.  My point is some people value turnovers (and their avoidance) differently than others...and I'm sure different metrics reflect this.  I don't think I could ever say a multiple turnover game was more efficient than one with none.  But that's just me - we can agree to disagree - it's fine

I was a huge proponent early in the season that if hurts just can cut down on turnovers the eagles would be really hard to beat. I felt that way last year too when he had a bunch to start the year. Hard to win in this league being on pace for 30ish turnovers. We can kind of overcome it more than most due to elite roster talent 

I’ve felt like hurts has all season. Passing game has been choppy. I do think some of it’s on him and I haven’t been as impressed as others have with Moore. Brought up the aj brown disappearing far too often as something cowboys fans complained about with lamb and Moore 

3 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

Usually the logic is any weather stuff favors the underdog because it brings an extra element into play, but I think some rain/little snow on Sunday could actually benefit the Eagles. The Rams are a team based on speed and timing and the Eagles are gritty and beat people up. Ultimately, it's not supposed to be heavy, if we even get rain or snow at all, so it's likely not a huge factor one way or the other, but if it is, I think it benefits the Eagles.

I've gone back and forth on this.  If the field is slick, it could hurt the pass rush.  The WRs know where they are going, the DBs may be slower to react.  

1 minute ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

I was a huge proponent early in the season that if hurts just can cut down on turnovers the eagles would be really hard to beat. I felt that way last year too when he had a bunch to start the year. Hard to win in this league being on pace for 30ish turnovers. We can kind of overcome it more than most due to elite roster talent 

I’ve felt like hurts has all season. Passing game has been choppy. I do think some of it’s on him and I haven’t been as impressed as others have with Moore. Brought up the aj brown disappearing far too often as something cowboys fans complained about with lamb and Moore 

Passing game has been choppy at times.  On Sunday to say choppy is being kind.  I just think other QBs have had choppier performances the last 10 years - even in wins

32 minutes ago, McMVP said:

Look, I think Jalen sucked pretty bad on Sunday.  That said, this worst of the last 10 years BS is utterly ridiculous.  Did no one else watch Darnold, Love, or Herbert this past weekend? 

Hurts had 2 TDs and no INTs.  So yeah, those numbers make it sound as if he played decent.  We all know he didn't.  But any time a QB throws 2 TDs and 0 INTs, but still is singled out as the worst performance in 10 years, I'm pretty sure it's the measuring metric that is severely flawed

I went and looked it up. I started with Russell Wilson against Minnesota 10 years ago. Literally the first game I looked at.

Wilson's line:

Player Tm Cmp Att Yds TD Int Sk Yds Lng Rate Att Yds TD Lng Tgt Rec Yds TD Lng Fmb FL
Russell Wilson SEA 13 26 142 1 1 2 13 35 63.3 5 21 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 1 0

Hurts' line:

 

Player Tm Cmp Att Yds TD Int Sk Yds Lng Rate Att Yds TD Lng Tgt Rec Yds TD Lng Fmb FL
Jalen Hurts PHI 13 21 131 2 0 2 10 28 111.4 6 36 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

While we're at it, here's Jordan Love's line from the same game, albeit in a losing cause:

 

Player Tm Cmp Att Yds TD Int Sk Yds Lng Rate Att Yds TD Lng Tgt Rec Yds TD Lng Fmb FL
Jordan Love GNB 20 33 212 0 3 2 17 29 41.5 2 10 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sheil is not an idiot. Far from it. I think this was a bogus stat either gathered or made up by someone with an agenda.

I did not bother to look past that first game.

3 hours ago, RLC said:

Most teams can't/won't do this for a variety of reasons.

- Teams are too cheap to pay for insurance
- Most players play most of their games, making insurance not applicable
- Most players who get hurt don't make enough to have a cap impact
- Most players who get hurt AND are expensive are usually good players that the team wants to bring back immediately

How many James Bradberry situations are even out there right now? Deshaun Watson and ???

All of those things are true; however, for the teams that are not cheap the dollars spent have the potential to bring back a two for one payoff (1) the represent real cash back in the owners’ pockets just like any insurance payment does (mitigating/hedging the financial risk) and (2) giving the team back Cap dollars.  If the premium payments do not count against the Cap, then those Cap relief payments represent a net net gain against the Cap.

36 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Call it BS. It’s what the analytics indicate. Guess the organization that’s analytic driven? Tbh dvoa has shown our passing attack is the worst it’s been in 4 years. I  think there’s many variables and reasons as to why. That said i don’t think howie and lurie just ignore it as they very much believe in analytics. 

The interesting thing about DVOA is that it paints us as far better than the aggregate numbers would indicate (14th instead of 28th.) And I seriously doubt the same people who are touting that article would agree that our passing attack was actually above average this year. It's almost like they're cherry picking analytics to suit their argument. Crazy because that's never happened before from fans, amirite.

3 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

I didn't think there was any chance that Hurts would be cut anytime soon.  Traded?  That's a whole other thing... but that wouldn't happen for a while either.

2025 appears to be almost surely a Hurts year.  2026 could easily be a non-Hurts year, especially if McKee is signed to a very reasonable second contract.

3 hours ago, Mike030270 said:

 

All the chatter on Bay Area sports radio is that Saleh is coming back to the Niners as the DC.

3 hours ago, LeanMeanGM said:

DeShaun Watson tore his Achilles twice. Not sure how he relates to James Bradberry. 

But again, I'm talking specifically Eagles. Eagles are known to not be cheap, and they are known to insure a ton of players contracts. We've missed Brandon Brooks for like two years straight. They lost Wentz for stretches. They lost Peters over and over. They likely got some relief at some point, it just wasn't a massive amount. I think it's reasonable to think they may possibly get some minimal relief with Bradberry, just not as significant as most people think.

It would be interesting to reach out to Jason at OTC and the folks at Spotrac and see if they have some year to year historical numbers on what "adjustments” the Eagles have gotten.

23 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

Usually the logic is any weather stuff favors the underdog because it brings an extra element into play, but I think some rain/little snow on Sunday could actually benefit the Eagles. The Rams are a team based on speed and timing and the Eagles are gritty and beat people up. Ultimately, it's not supposed to be heavy, if we even get rain or snow at all, so it's likely not a huge factor one way or the other, but if it is, I think it benefits the Eagles.

Inclement weather (winds, rain, snow, low temps, etc) usually favor the team with a strong ground game and physical defense. Which is us. 

1 hour ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

I view it more this way, if we get by the rams then we are likely running into lions and then bills, ravens and a fully healthy chiefs offense (really just got everyone back into the fold the last 3 weeks). I tend to think those are the elite teams in the league. Imo we are gonna have to score in the 30+ to win. I know we all look at the ravens game and we beat them down with   Jalen being so-so. But I also think Justin Tucker leaving seven points off the board isn’t discussed enough. Is Justin Tucker  gonna miss two field goals and an extra point to cost them seven points and their defense has turned the corner over the last month. Game may have played out differently with Tucker not doing that and a ravens defense playing much better if we just assume we can do the same thing again  

people can disagree but i don’t see them getting through the lions and any of those afc teams if the passing game isn’t better. I’m hoping it looks better this week. I thought jalen nailed it when he said it was choppy. It’s been an issue this year. Let’s just hope it’s corrected next 3 weeks or not nearly as choppy 

F- we have to play 3 teams in the Super Bowl?!!!!?!

1 hour ago, McMVP said:

Look, I think Jalen sucked pretty bad on Sunday.  That said, this worst of the last 10 years BS is utterly ridiculous.  Did no one else watch Darnold, Love, or Herbert this past weekend? 

Hurts had 2 TDs and no INTs.  So yeah, those numbers make it sound as if he played decent.  We all know he didn't.  But any time a QB throws 2 TDs and 0 INTs, but still is singled out as the worst performance in 10 years, I'm pretty sure it's the measuring metric that is severely flawed

Herbert had 1-2 picks that were tipped by the WR not catching the ball. He kept throwing fastballs and the receivers kept dropping or tipping them

19 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

The interesting thing about DVOA is that it paints us as far better than the aggregate numbers would indicate (14th instead of 28th.) And I seriously doubt the same people who are touting that article would agree that our passing attack was actually above average this year. It's almost like they're cherry picking analytics to suit their argument. Crazy because that's never happened before from fans, amirite.

I can’t speak for everyone else on what their beliefs are. Id view it more this way with the passing game,  weapons and OL that lurie and howie invested in, i seriously doubt they believe it should be sitting around 14th. I think there’s some circumstance behind it. I also don’t see it as strictly all on Jalen either. But i have a hard time believing lurie/howie think this passing game should be sitting at 14th DVOA or slightly above league average  

my personal belief is what Jalen said. It’s been choppy all year. Games like Carolina and last week. Then have games like rams and Steelers where it looked good. It’s why i can believe they are closer to league average in passing than top tier in the league. Imo there’s two areas on the team that  week to week that we don’t exactly know what to expect: Jake Elliott (as some weeks he’s fine and others it’s butt clinching watching him kick) and passing game. 

4 minutes ago, NCiggles said:

F- we have to play 3 teams in the Super Bowl?!!!!?!

Yeah probably should’ve used Or instead of and 

16 hours ago, Diehardfan said:

Dude lost his job and got banned for life.

Ok. What I want to know is what they did as part of it? Dude went into the stadium with a body cam. You don't do that unless you are looking for trouble and clicks on social media. Was she talking trash? Did the camera guy antagonize? What led up to that? Seems like there was more leading up to gotcha "I've got it" moment. 

He got what he deserved. Some 'maltreatment' of opposing fans is expected but it can go too far and with cameras everywhere, you should expect to suffer bad circumstances later. 

That said, I'd never wear opposing gear to any other teams stadium and if I did, I'd be expecting extreme treatment. Maybe it would happen, maybe it wouldn't but I'd go into it expecting it. 

48 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Imo dvoa encompasses a lot of different things. It’s more telling to me that  hurts went to the podium and straight up said all year they’ve been choppy in the passing game. Which frankly the dvoa analytics has indicated in terms of passing game. 

I think he was referring to the metric which served as the basis for the article. In other words, when calculating "dropback success rate", is an incompletion weighted any differently than an interception, and if so, by how much. Some people with an agenda made an assumption on this efficiency metric without understanding the answer to that question. By doing so, they misinterpreted efficiency for performance. 

 

 

6 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

But i have a hard time believing lurie/howie think this passing game should be sitting at 14th DVOA or slightly above league average  

It definitely shouldn't with the roster we have, I don't think anybody who took issue with the article is saying that. We're just saying that we've seen plenty of playoff games in the last decade, and Hurts was clearly not the worst performing QB to come out with a win in that time span. 

Just now, RememberTheKoy said:

 

 

Good for us. Barkley is a mudder, and his mutter was a mudder.

3 minutes ago, RememberTheKoy said:

 

 

Snow Bowl.

4 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

It definitely shouldn't with the roster we have, I don't think anybody who took issue with the article is saying that. We're just saying that we've seen plenty of playoff games in the last decade, and Hurts was clearly not the worst performing QB to come out with a win in that time span. 

I don’t disagree. Even gave an example where TJ Yates was worse imo and he won against the bengals. Can see someone making the Trevor Lawrence argument as he was atrocious in a first half then great in a second half

 

 

4 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Good for us. Barkley is a mudder, and his mutter was a mudder.

His father was a mudder... his mother was a mudder. : r/seinfeld

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