2 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

In basic terms, if I’m the QB and I see Devonta Smith lined up 1-on-1 against an average CB I’m throwing it and trusting he will win a contested catch.  Same with AJ Brown.  IMO, Hurts isn’t showing enough trust in his targets to win those battles 

I don’t disagree with you at all; however, (1)  what does that have to do with whether 32 coaching staffs coach their many QBs to avoid turnover risk, and (2) how does that example show any difference between risk aversion and risk avoidance?

I agree that what you have described makes sense in concept, but I can guarantee you that very very few people can actually execute that concept.  They won’t "see” what you are describing until Devonta is actually open.  Then they might see it, but most won’t even see it then.

 

5 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

No, I actually gave you the data about champions/chiefs over the last 5 years in terms of their rushing attacks and passing attacks sit in the league but I guess you just missed that a couple pages ago.

But at this point, this is a pointless conversation. Have a good night Matt 

Repost it.  I definitely did not see it.  What does Chiefs data have to do with whether Lurie can look at the player assets his employees have assembled and change his expectations to maximize the output of those player assets.

You are so deep into the forest of your world of data that you can’t tell what is forest and what is trees.  You do the same thing in the Phillies thread.

Watching some prospects for the draft, I really like the two guys from South Carolina — EDGE Kyle Kennard and DT TJ Sanders.

From what I’m reading both are expected to go in the first 2 rounds, with Kennard possibly sneaking into the first.

Kennard would be a really nice pass rusher who should be able to give us some juice on third down from day 1. Sanders would be a nice Milton Williams replacement if Nolen isn’t available in the first.

37 minutes ago, Captain F said:

I don't have time to read back thru the blog to see if already discussed but.... Did you guys see that there's a 60% chance of snow during the game? And very cold temps....  Saquan summons his inner Shady.  Snowbowl 2.0

Probably not discussed because its Wednesday and it will change 10x before kickoff. Even if does snow its also supposed to rain so that not even an inch of snow wont be anything 

3 hours ago, mattwill said:

Repost it.  I definitely did not see it.  What does Chiefs data have to do with whether Lurie can look at the player assets his employees have assembled and change his expectations to maximize the output of those player assets.

You are so deep into the forest of your world of data that you can’t tell what is forest and what is trees.  You do the same thing in the Phillies thread.

Cause banner discussed lurie’s philosophies being tied to how Andy Reid thinks and that’s how he wants to run his organization. Someone posted on here a couple years ago it was from a podcast (believe mosher and caplan). Add on the chiefs fall into that data i provided as a 3 time champion in 5 years and their/reid’s organizational philosophy on passing 

I’m not going back to repost it when you could’ve read it to begin with.  take the time to go find it yourself.

Matt, I give you the smallest of data from 5years  (chiefs/2020 bucs 4th passing and 25th running/2021 rams and bengals top 8 passing and bottom 1/3 in running) along with quotes/articles from lurie’s mouth consistently illustrating my point. recently he had a chance where he could’ve shown some sort of change when he was straight up asked in the offseason about a shift in running game philosophy which he completely dismissed that part of the question asked to him and talked about passing game aspect being of huge value with Barkley. You have yet to provide any information from lurie or a beat writer showing he’s thought about changing off his organizational philosophy or why no one should believe when he’s talked about his organizational philosophy  

You can say whatever you want about me and the Phillies thread but you have literally provided no data, quotes or evidence for your theory besides Matt doesn’t believe him, he works in the film industry and we don’t have the eagles analytics. It is pure conjecture on your end. No crap people can change their thought process. however after 25 years and nothing but conjecture on your end isn’t convincing that he did or would’ve. I would add on that Phillies thread there been times where you’ve completely off when you’ve posted or just straight up incorrect while being provided with data. I have been wrong or data didn’t hold up in that thread and when it happens I’m usually there and say i was wrong or missed it. However, I provide a ton of data on that thread that has turned out to be accurate or what transpired based off the data was exactly what i concluded would happen. Yet you believe that hasn’t happened more often then what you speak of.…  

have a goodnight Matt 

25 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Cause banner straight up discussed lurie’s philosophies being tied to how Andy Reid thinks and how he wants to run his organization. Someone posted on here a couple years ago it was from a podcast (believe mosher and caplan). Add on the chiefs fall into that data i provided as well.

I’m not going back to repost it when you could’ve read it to begin with.  take the time to go do it yourself.

Matt, I give you the smallest of data along with quotes/articles from lurie’s mouth consistently illustrating my point. recently he had a chance where he could’ve shown change when he was straight up asked in the offseason which he completely dismissed that part of the question asked to him and talked about passing game being of huge value with Barkley. You have yet to provide any information from lurie or a beat writer showing he’s thought about changing off his organizational philosophy or why no one should believe when he’s talked about his organizational philosophy  

You can say whatever you want about me and the Phillies thread but you have literally provided no data, quotes or evidence for your theories besides Matt doesn’t believe him and he works in the film industry. And we don’t have their analytics. It is pure theory without an actual evidence or quotes behind it. I would add on that Phillies thread there been times where you’ve completely off and just straight up incorrect while being provided with data. I have been wrong on that thread before and it happens I’m usually there and say i missed it. However, I provide a lot of data on that thread that turned out to be exactly right or what transpired based off the data was exactly what i concluded would. Yet you seemingly don’t bring that up  

have a goodnight Matt 

"You two sons of two ****es!”

 

 

 

Great....... 🤦the guy that throws out people for naughty language..

4 minutes ago, Uscg-green said:

Great....... 🤦the guy that throws out people for naughty language..

I don’t think that’s correct on the record 

 

4 hours ago, LeanMeanGM said:

"They’re just playing possum”

 

21 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

I don’t think that’s correct on the record 

 

Even if it wasn't correct 2023 is still just last season and 2 games. They say " since" like its been goong on for years with that ref lol

8 hours ago, mattwill said:

They have to pull the trigger prior to the Option Bonus coming due.  That I believe is in March.  June would be too late unless they can act in March with a post-June 1st designation.

Are you saying the site I'm looking at doesn't take that into account?

1 hour ago, DrPhilly said:

Are you saying the site I'm looking at doesn't take that into account?

I don’t see it explicitly spelled out.

4 hours ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Cause banner discussed lurie’s philosophies being tied to how Andy Reid thinks and that’s how he wants to run his organization. Someone posted on here a couple years ago it was from a podcast (believe mosher and caplan). Add on the chiefs fall into that data i provided as a 3 time champion in 5 years and their/reid’s organizational philosophy on passing 

I’m not going back to repost it when you could’ve read it to begin with.  take the time to go find it yourself.

Matt, I give you the smallest of data from 5years  (chiefs/2020 bucs 4th passing and 25th running/2021 rams and bengals top 8 passing and bottom 1/3 in running) along with quotes/articles from lurie’s mouth consistently illustrating my point. recently he had a chance where he could’ve shown some sort of change when he was straight up asked in the offseason about a shift in running game philosophy which he completely dismissed that part of the question asked to him and talked about passing game aspect being of huge value with Barkley. You have yet to provide any information from lurie or a beat writer showing he’s thought about changing off his organizational philosophy or why no one should believe when he’s talked about his organizational philosophy  

You can say whatever you want about me and the Phillies thread but you have literally provided no data, quotes or evidence for your theory besides Matt doesn’t believe him, he works in the film industry and we don’t have the eagles analytics. It is pure conjecture on your end. No crap people can change their thought process. however after 25 years and nothing but conjecture on your end isn’t convincing that he did or would’ve. I would add on that Phillies thread there been times where you’ve completely off when you’ve posted or just straight up incorrect while being provided with data. I have been wrong or data didn’t hold up in that thread and when it happens I’m usually there and say i was wrong or missed it. However, I provide a ton of data on that thread that has turned out to be accurate or what transpired based off the data was exactly what i concluded would happen. Yet you believe that hasn’t happened more often then what you speak of.…  

have a goodnight Matt 

Here is what I "hear” from your latest comment above.

(1) it is focused on non-Eagles information (Chiefs data). 

(2) it ignores the Eagles-specific data that clearly shows a reset of Eagles Offensive philosophy happened during the Bye week.

(3) it appears to be saying that Lurie does not support the game plan that Siriani, Moore, and Stoutland have deployed since the Bye Week, which the players have implemented.

(4) it causes me to wonder whether the Lurie press conference was before the Bye or after the Bye.

With that said, I will renew my comment from yesterday that it is time for us to agree to disagree.

5 hours ago, HazletonEagle said:

HAHA. Funny how that stuff existed when Tanner McKee played. Whos offense was it then? Did they let Tanner design all of his own plays and use them when he plays?

Was going to be my next point, but thank you.

I remember on more than one occasion reading "Where are these calls for Hurts?/Why don't we run these with Hurts?"

The answer has hit them in the face repeatedly, but they keep ignoring it.

1 hour ago, mattwill said:

Here is what I "hear” from your latest comment above.

(1) it is focused on non-Eagles information (Chiefs data). 

(2) it ignores the Eagles-specific data that clearly shows a reset of Eagles Offensive philosophy happened during the Bye week.

(3) it appears to be saying that Lurie does not support the game plan that Siriani, Moore, and Stoutland have deployed since the Bye Week, which the players have implemented.

(4) it causes me to wonder whether the Lurie press conference was before the Bye or after the Bye.

With that said, I will renew my comment from yesterday that it is time for us to agree to disagree.

Send you DM. Said wasn’t going to continue the convo here. You have my response there. 

2 hours ago, mattwill said:

I don’t see it explicitly spelled out.

 

Here is the link below.  Look to the columns in pink on the far right.  You can select whether you want to see cap implications based on both timing and also cut/trade.  I'm assuming they have factored the options into the numbers based on the timing.  In the screenshot I've selected the cut option in the post-June 1 period.

https://overthecap.com/player/jalen-hurts/8793

 

6 hours ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Cause banner discussed lurie’s philosophies being tied to how Andy Reid thinks and that’s how he wants to run his organization. Someone posted on here a couple years ago it was from a podcast (believe mosher and caplan). Add on the chiefs fall into that data i provided as a 3 time champion in 5 years and their/reid’s organizational philosophy on passing 

I’m not going back to repost it when you could’ve read it to begin with.  take the time to go find it yourself.

Matt, I give you the smallest of data from 5years  (chiefs/2020 bucs 4th passing and 25th running/2021 rams and bengals top 8 passing and bottom 1/3 in running) along with quotes/articles from lurie’s mouth consistently illustrating my point. recently he had a chance where he could’ve shown some sort of change when he was straight up asked in the offseason about a shift in running game philosophy which he completely dismissed that part of the question asked to him and talked about passing game aspect being of huge value with Barkley. You have yet to provide any information from lurie or a beat writer showing he’s thought about changing off his organizational philosophy or why no one should believe when he’s talked about his organizational philosophy 

I can absolutely see them at least temporarily changing their position based off of what Barkley has given them and also what the Ravens have done.  I'm thinking that at minimum 2025 is going to be the same as this year with Hurts at the helm and with a run first O.  Thereafter, they will be making the tough decisions as the key cap consideration moment with Hurts comes around in the offseason leading up to the 2026 year.  I agree they will not hesitate but the best chance this year and next is with Hurts.

1 hour ago, DrPhilly said:

I can absolutely see them at least temporarily changing their position based off of what Barkley has given them and also what the Ravens have done.  I'm thinking that at minimum 2025 is going to be the same as this year with Hurts at the helm and with a run first O.  Thereafter, they will be making the tough decisions as the key cap consideration moment with Hurts comes around in the offseason leading up to the 2026 year.  I agree they will not hesitate but the best chance this year and next is with Hurts.

the ravens passing attack in a lot of different analytics is top tier. In DVOA they are 1st in passing and rushing. (Buffalo and lions are also top 6 in both). Meanwhile the eagles are middle of the pack throwing the ball by DVOA and passing offense ranks 30th. Even just using statistics passing offense and rushing offense, the ravens, bills and lions are top 10 in both. Ravens and eagles both are excellent running the ball. But if we are saying what the ravens have done, they aren’t just an elite rushing attack. 

Frankly for the long term I don’t think you can bank on having this type of historic running game in 2025. There’s only been 9 seasons in the history of the NFL where a RB rushed for 2000 yards. For the Eagles to be as good as they’ve been and passing game is the same in 2025 then Barkley is going to have to be about this good next year. The data about touches for a running back tends to creep in here. Recent data with touches suggest there’s an highly likely chance for a drop off in performance or injuries with this amount of touches (350+). 2021 Jonathan Taylor and then 2022 he wasn’t as good and got hurt. Henry ran for 2000 then following year got hurt. 2022 josh Jacobs then 2023 he wasn’t as good and got hurt. 2023 CMC and then 2024 cmc got hurt (playoffs way over 350; he also had same issue in Carolina after 2019). There’s others i didn’t include here.  Are there some that didn’t have this fate? Of course but. It nearly As much that suffered this fate. I don’t think it’s coincidence that all these guys saw a drop off and/or got injured. it’s really hard to sustain for a rb getting that type of touches year after year then also adding postseason touches  

i’ll use Barkley specifically. His rookie year (2018) he had 350+ touches. The following year he only played 13 games. In 2022, he again had 350+ touches. The next year he only played 14 games and there was a significant drop off in his performance. Obviously the performance drop off we can put weight in the fact it was the Giants as a partial reason for it. But the data has suggested a year after he’s had 350+ he’s gotten banged up and missed time. And at the end of this season, he’s going to by far have the most touches he’s ever had after a season  

I believe hurts is gonna be here at least through next year. However, I think you are tempting fate if we believe Saquon Barkley in 2025 is gonna have another 370+ touches in the regular season and postseason touches. He very well could be close to over 800 touches if that’s the philosophy and plan going forward. Maybe he’s does it and he’s an outlier. but id love to know the last rb who’s done that and what his statistics looked like those two years. 

Why do people want Hurts throwing more contested catches?  That's going to help the offense?  You sure??

 

Also, I'm still holding out hope that Huff delivers his Golden Tate moment in the playoffs and makes it all worth it. 

I have a slightly different perspective on the Hurts debate to discuss.  Everyone thinks that sometimes we get good Hurts, sometimes bad Hurts.  And that in general he is a great protector of the football who does not turn it over but is not a slick high volume passer.  I think that’s the wrong way to look at it.

There is "closed Hurts” and "open Hurts.” The one we get depends on the approach the coaches and Hurts himself takes to a game.  We’ve had closed Hurts ever since the bye week.  Closed Hurts runs the offense like a rookie or a backup qb.  Makes few challenging or contested throws, looks to run in the most critical situations, high volume run offense, redundant simple route concepts.

"Open” Hurts plays a more aggressive, open, and attacking style of qb.  More throws, more efforts to make throws in the run, push the ball downfield, etc. And this version of Hurts has occasionally taken over games, looked like an all pro, etc.  But over time, when they open up the playbook and Hurts is more aggressive, he’s the most turnover prone qb in the nfl.

When he and the coaches take that approach, it’s int and fumble city.  So they close off the offense, pound it with Barkley, make Hurts run it himself, and don’t pull the trigger unless it’s completely safe and obvious.  And they ensure protection of the football.

People say Hurts protects the football so well.  No one turns the ball over when you run the offense this way and that’s why they do it.  We know what happens when they open up the offense.  And so do they.  Which is why they don’t do it.

56 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

the ravens passing attack in a lot of different analytics is top tier. In DVOA they are 1st in passing and rushing. (Buffalo and lions are also top 6 in both). Meanwhile the eagles are middle of the pack throwing the ball by DVOA and passing offense ranks 30th. Even just using statistics passing offense and rushing offense, the ravens, bills and lions are top 10 in both. Ravens and eagles both are excellent running the ball. But if we are saying what the ravens have done, they aren’t just an elite rushing attack.

That's all fine and dandy but the point with the Ravens is that they ALSO have a massive rushing attack.  The 49ers were another team over the last few years that have based much of their success on rushing.  I think the trend of increased importance on running the ball is a league wide item and Lurie/Howie will take notice.

 

1 hour ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Frankly for the long term I don’t think you can bank on having this type of historic running game in 2025. There’s only been 9 seasons in the history of the NFL where a RB rushed for 2000 yards. For the Eagles to be as good as they’ve been and passing game is the same in 2025 then Barkley is going to have to be about this good next year.

I'm not saying it will be exactly the same.  What I'm saying is that I believe it is "run first" again as the plan next year even though the numbers are very likely to shift a bit toward more passing.  Injuries or massive drop off can always mean the plan needs to change.  Nothing new there.  As for Barkley, yeah he comes back to earth but I don't think we get a massive drop off due to wear and tear.  He is a unique specimen physically and he also hasn't really accumulated the normal wear and tear given his number of years due to how many games he has missed.  I think he has another couple of years of elite RB play.

I'm not talking about a specific number of touches for Barkley.  My bet is that the backup RBs get more touches next year but overall I still see it as a run heavy O.  2026 can very well be back to the old Lurie/Howie formula with massive passing but then we won't have Hurts as the QB.

25 minutes ago, Mike31mt said:

Why do people want Hurts throwing more contested catches?  That's going to help the offense?  You sure??

Exactly.  At this point it is clear the best chance for winning under Hurts is the formula they've played since after the bye.

26 minutes ago, Mike31mt said:

Also, I'm still holding out hope that Huff delivers his Golden Tate moment in the playoffs and makes it all worth it. 

The chance is extremely slim to nill

17 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

The chance is extremely slim to nill

Yeah - even if he had it in him, it’s a bit uphill when you are getting 1 snap/game. Maybe he comes out firing in his reduced/specialized role next TC…