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EMB Blog: 2024 Regular Season (Part 2) ... and Playoffs

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  • Newest Eagles fan came this morning at 4am…I’m tired AF.  I’ll make sure to post some photos this weekend of her in her baby Eagles gear!  Despite my sleep deprived wishes, she is not named Saquon and

  • The Dickerson/Jurgens tag team job at center will probably be forgotten over time, but was one of the most memorably gutsy things we’ve seen in Philly sports.  

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35 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

The Sixers are the Browns/Jets/Raiders of the NBA.

 

No, teams like the Hornets and Wizards would be the Browns/Jets/Raiders of the NFL.

Sixers would be comparable to teams like the Bills, Texans and Vikings as teams that will consistently make the playoffs but fall short of being able to play for a championship. 

4 minutes ago, Freshmilk said:

I don't have that level of animosity or frustration,  but something isn't right with his knee and they need to figure it out.

There’s been some beat writers who’ve begun leaking out that last year they’ve heard rumblings that Embiid’s knee wasn’t fully back and they let him play. Which is on Sixers and Embiid. 

1 hour ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Nah they stopped after the Eagles won the SB. I think it was getting too trashy and out of hand for everyone's liking. 

The 4am (?) start time was always a bit rough for me even 20 yrs ago. Not quite in step with the times these days either, I figure.

3 hours ago, DrPhilly said:

I know what the thinking is but in the end of the day snow will change the dynamics and make things more chaotic and less predictable.  All things being equal/normal we dominate them.  No need to stir things up.

Ehh, that’s a bit like saying all things equal a squad of US marines will beat a squad of Russians, and giving the Marines the high ground introduces unnecessary variables…

6 minutes ago, RememberTheKoy said:

 

No, teams like the Hornets and Wizards would be the Browns/Jets/Raiders of the NFL.

Sixers would be comparable to teams like the Bills, Texans and Vikings as teams that will consistently make the playoffs but fall short of being able to play for a championship. 

Not in popularity but could make the argument to cowboys. where glory years were decades ago. Won championships 30+ years. For the last 20 years they will sometimes even have the best record regular season in their conference, make the playoffs (spots where they missed for stretches) and can’t get past the second round (divisional round for cowboys). Sixers haven’t made a ECF or finals since 01. Cowboys haven’t made a sb or nfc title game since 96

1 hour ago, just relax said:

I don't see how the Rams can win.

Turnovers is the easy answer.

26 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

But it’s not sustainable.  And it’s about money.  I know we aren’t paying the salaries and Howie is a cap wizard, but he can’t defy reality.  

I used to think that too, but if we make it to the Super Bowl twice in 3 years, then maybe our idea of sustainability is what's not aligning with reality.

33 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

Here’s my issue with the Hurts debate.  I used to get frustrated because passing is not his strength and I could not wrap my head around the concept of competing with an nfl offense featuring a qb that isn’t a great passer.  I feel the offense could be so much better with a better passer.  But I’m over that.  They’ve found a way to win.  It works.  We are in a playoff run.  I don’t care about doing it my way or being proven right.

Here’s the problem.  The Eagles aren’t built around the running game or Hurts running or the RPO.  That’s too specific.  They are built around having the best, most stacked roster in the nfl.  A generational RB, the best OL in the NFL, elite pass catchers, elite defense.  And the QBs job is to not do too much, run for some big plays, make some timely throws, and don’t turn it over.  

That formula is winning.  It may fall short Sunday against the Rams or it may deliver a parade this February.  But it is winning and that’s the way to go for now.  But it’s not sustainable.  And it’s about money.  I know we aren’t paying the salaries and Howie is a cap wizard, but he can’t defy reality.  

This formula works if the qb is on a modest contract.  You can’t pay Hurts $250m.  You’ll lose one or more of Milton Williams, Becton, Baun, Sweat.  And then next year, the offense has to score a few more points to win games.  Hurts has to throw a few more passes to score those points because you couldn’t keep Becton for the power running game.  When the qb is on that kind of deal, some of the blocks behind that stacked roster have to get pulled away.  And when you need to score more points, need to pass more to get there…the team will regress to the mean because the roster will be slightly less stacked and we’ll be asking more of the 250m qb.  That will be our reality starting next year.

 

The only way it works with Hurts’ current contract and production is if our draft yield keeps pace with the last four classes.

If you’re consistently getting 2+ starters and 2+ significant contributors, it covers up bad cap management and veteran personnel decisions.

31 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

There’s been some beat writers who’ve begun leaking out that last year they’ve heard rumblings that Embiid’s knee wasn’t fully back and they let him play. Which is on Sixers and Embiid. 

Yeah, I read that as well.

30 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

I used to think that too, but if we make it to the Super Bowl twice in 3 years, then maybe our idea of sustainability is what's not aligning with reality.

You haven't got to the part where the big money for the shiddy QB kicks in yet. Which was his point.  Which means it's still to early to second guess your idea of sustainability.

11 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

You haven't got to the part where the big money for the shiddy QB kicks in yet. Which was his point.  Which means it's still to early to second guess your idea of sustainability.

We all thought repeating our 2022 run was impossible with the albatross of Hurts' upcoming contract hanging around our necks because he was still on his rookie deal then, and we had contracts/extensions due for him, Smitty, Slay, Mailata, etc. 

And yet we find ourselves at a point where the chances of us doing that are very much possible.

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1 hour ago, eagle45 said:

Here’s my issue with the Hurts debate.  I used to get frustrated because passing is not his strength and I could not wrap my head around the concept of competing with an nfl offense featuring a qb that isn’t a great passer.  I feel the offense could be so much better with a better passer.  But I’m over that.  They’ve found a way to win.  It works.  We are in a playoff run.  I don’t care about doing it my way or being proven right.

Here’s the problem.  The Eagles aren’t built around the running game or Hurts running or the RPO.  That’s too specific.  They are built around having the best, most stacked roster in the nfl.  A generational RB, the best OL in the NFL, elite pass catchers, elite defense.  And the QBs job is to not do too much, run for some big plays, make some timely throws, and don’t turn it over.  

That formula is winning.  It may fall short Sunday against the Rams or it may deliver a parade this February.  But it is winning and that’s the way to go for now.  But it’s not sustainable.  And it’s about money.  I know we aren’t paying the salaries and Howie is a cap wizard, but he can’t defy reality.  

This formula works if the qb is on a modest contract.  You can’t pay Hurts $250m.  You’ll lose one or more of Milton Williams, Becton, Baun, Sweat.  And then next year, the offense has to score a few more points to win games.  Hurts has to throw a few more passes to score those points because you couldn’t keep Becton for the power running game.  When the qb is on that kind of deal, some of the blocks behind that stacked roster have to get pulled away.  And when you need to score more points, need to pass more to get there…the team will regress to the mean because the roster will be slightly less stacked and we’ll be asking more of the 250m qb.  That will be our reality starting next year.

 

You don't "lose one or more of Milton Williams, Becton, Baun, Sweat" solely because of Hurts.

  • Brown and Smith are currently #3 and #11 in average annual value amongst WRs.  Only the Dolphins, with Hill and Waddle, pay more for their top two.
  • Barkley is #3 amongst RBs.
  • Goedert is #4 TE.
  • Johnson is #4 RT and Mailata is #5 LT.
  • Dickerson is #1 LG.
  • CJGJ is #14 Safety
  • Slay and Bradberry are #16 and #17 amongst CBs.
  • Elliot is #2 Kicker.
  • We are carrying $30 million in dead cap (mostly Kelce and Cox) into 2025
  • We are carrying another $30 million in void years (mostly Sweat and Graham) into 2025

 

55 minutes ago, TEW said:

Ehh, that’s a bit like saying all things equal a squad of US marines will beat a squad of Russians, and giving the Marines the high ground introduces unnecessary variables…

Uhhhh no, nothing like that at all

45 minutes ago, TEW said:

The only way it works with Hurts’ current contract and production is if our draft yield keeps pace with the last four classes.

If you’re consistently getting 2+ starters and 2+ significant contributors, it covers up bad cap management and veteran personnel decisions.

There is a pretty decent out post-June 1 2026 if necessary.

8 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

We all thought repeating our 2022 run was impossible with the albatross of Hurts' upcoming contract hanging around our necks because he was still on his rookie deal then, and we had contracts/extensions due for him, Smitty, Slay, Mailata, etc. 

And yet we find ourselves at a point where the chances of us doing that are very much possible.

The hurts upcoming contract doesn't hurt us.  It's only when the contract actually starts being paid. 

 

I still say,  with Howie, all things are possible. 

Luckily when that big contract kicks in,  there are also outs. Then maybe we can get a good QB instead. 

6 minutes ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

You don't "lose one or more of Milton Williams, Becton, Baun, Sweat" solely because of Hurts.

  • Brown and Smith are currently #3 and #11 in average annual value amongst WRs.  Only the Dolphins, with Hill and Waddle, pay more for their top two.
  • Barkley is #3 amongst RBs.
  • Goedert is #4 TE.
  • Johnson is #4 RT and Mailata is #5 LT.
  • Dickerson is #1 LG.
  • CJGJ is #14 Safety
  • Slay and Bradberry are #16 and #17 amongst CBs.
  • Elliot is #2 Kicker.
  • We are carrying $30 million in dead cap (mostly Kelce and Cox) into 2025
  • We are carrying another $30 million in option years (mostly Sweat and Graham) into 2025

 

The question is about whether or not you are getting proper return on the investment.  

  • Brown's and Smith's getting good ROI on 'ability', but probably not their 'production'.
  • Barkley is absolutely a bargain at his salary.
  • Goedert is likely a bit of an overpay.
  • Johnson and Mailata are good ROI.
  • Dickerson is good ROI.
  • CJGJ is good ROI
  • Slay is decent ROI.   Bradberry is definitely not.
  • Elliott is clearly not good ROI.
  • And the dead money is something that many of us have been pointing to as something that would bite us eventually... but Howie will just kick more money into the future to make up for that dead money this year.  

The question that remains unanswered yet is whether or not the deal for Hurts will provide good ROI as the contract continues in 2025, then in 2026, and in to 2027 and beyond.  People are on different extremes of that discussion... and some are sitting closer to the middle, others further to the extreme, likely with RTK at one max extreme, and HE at the opposite extreme end.

2 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

The question is about whether or not you are getting proper return on the investment.  

I'd say we are getting good return for:

  • Brown's and Smith's 'ability', but probably not their production.
  • Barkley is absolutely a bargain at his salary.
  • Goedert is likely a bit of an overpay.
  • Johnson and Mailata are good ROI.
  • Dickerson is good ROI.
  • CJGJ is good ROI
  • Slay is decent ROI.   Bradberry is definitely not.
  • Elliott is clearly not good ROI.
  • And the dead money is something that many of us have been pointing to as something that would bite us eventually... but Howie will just kick more money into the future to make up for that dead money this year.  

The question that remains unanswered yet is whether or not the deal for Hurts will provide good ROI as the contract continues in 2025, then in 2026, and in to 2027 and beyond.  People are on different extremes of that discussion... and some are sitting closer to the middle, others further to the extreme, likely with RTK at one max extreme, and HE at the opposite extreme end.

If Hurts wins the SB, then the contract was worth it.  Good post.  CE's too.

2 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

The question is about whether or not you are getting proper return on the investment.  

  • Brown's and Smith's getting good ROI on 'ability', but probably not their 'production'.
  • Barkley is absolutely a bargain at his salary.
  • Goedert is likely a bit of an overpay.
  • Johnson and Mailata are good ROI.
  • Dickerson is good ROI.
  • CJGJ is good ROI
  • Slay is decent ROI.   Bradberry is definitely not.
  • Elliott is clearly not good ROI.
  • And the dead money is something that many of us have been pointing to as something that would bite us eventually... but Howie will just kick more money into the future to make up for that dead money this year.  

The question that remains unanswered yet is whether or not the deal for Hurts will provide good ROI as the contract continues in 2025, then in 2026, and in to 2027 and beyond.  People are on different extremes of that discussion... and some are sitting closer to the middle, others further to the extreme, likely with RTK at one max extreme, and HE at the opposite extreme end.

The measuring stick for extremism should be based on the truth.  Not the perceived middle ground from where one of the extremes lies. 

I an extreme based on RTKs idiocy. But I am in the middle based on reality. Extremes should be judged from there. 

You have RTK to one extreme.  And maybe sometime like TJ who is even less likely to praise Hurts than I, on the other extreme (which somehow has gone pretty unnoticed.)

Those who perceive themselves to be in the middle based on RTK and my posts are actuality biased towards his stupid views. Sad.

Anyone have a way to bypass a paywall or have access to company Zach Berman writes for? I’d really like to read up on his recent article on behind the scene staffers but don’t want to subscribe to the site

6 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

The hurts upcoming contract doesn't hurt us.  It's only when the contract actually starts being paid. 

 

I still say,  with Howie, all things are possible. 

Luckily when that big contract kicks in,  there are also outs. Then maybe we can get a good QB instead. 

Oh I see, so Hurts' cap number increasing from $1M in 2022 to $13M this year didn't hurt us, but next year's increase from $13M to $21M will? Yep, the math checks out.

  • Author
7 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

The question is about whether or not you are getting proper return on the investment.  

  • Brown's and Smith's getting good ROI on 'ability', but probably not their 'production'.
  • Barkley is absolutely a bargain at his salary.
  • Goedert is likely a bit of an overpay.
  • Johnson and Mailata are good ROI.
  • Dickerson is good ROI.
  • CJGJ is good ROI
  • Slay is decent ROI.   Bradberry is definitely not.
  • Elliott is clearly not good ROI.
  • And the dead money is something that many of us have been pointing to as something that would bite us eventually... but Howie will just kick more money into the future to make up for that dead money this year.  

The question that remains unanswered yet is whether or not the deal for Hurts will provide good ROI as the contract continues in 2025, then in 2026, and in to 2027 and beyond.  People are on different extremes of that discussion... and some are sitting closer to the middle, others further to the extreme, likely with RTK at one max extreme, and HE at the opposite extreme end.

Can't spell TRutH KillErs without RTK and HE.

1 minute ago, HazletonEagle said:

The measuring stick for extremism should be based on the truth.  Not the perceived middle ground from where one of the extremes lies. 

I an extreme based on RTKs idiocy. But I am in the middle based on reality. Extremes should be judged from there. 

You have RTK to one extreme.  And maybe sometime like TJ who is even less likely to praise Hurts than I, on the other extreme (which somehow has gone pretty unnoticed.)

Those who perceive themselves to be in the middle based on RTK and my posts are actuality biased towards his stupid views. Sad.

If you don't see that you are the extremist then you're not just a troll. You're delusional.

10 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

likely with RTK at one max extreme, and HE at the opposite extreme end.

Yeah like I said before, everyone spent years laughing at RTK after Foles won it all 7 years ago, and yet people like HE are potentially putting themselves in the same position if we win it all this year. Not that it'll matter since we've already spent years laughing at HE so it wouldn't really change much.

14 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

Uhhhh no, nothing like that at all

Uhhhhh, yes, everything like that exactly. 

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