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EMB Blog: 2024 Regular Season (Part 2) ... and Playoffs

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5 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

We'll see. 350 is still a huge number in todays game. There's only been a handful of guys that have carried it that much recently and keep sustained success. It's basically Derrick Henry, possibly McCaffery but you have to factor in if his recent injuries are from his huge workloads. Demarco Murray had that one huge year then came here and his YPA dropped from 4.7 to 3.6 (27 years old). Jonathan Taylor had 1,800 and his YPA went from 5.5 to 4.5 (23 years old). Josh Jacobs had his one big year and went from YPA of 4.9 to 3.5 (25 years old).

It's not impossible but I would say the odds are not in Barkleys favor. 

Yep. I brought this up last week with Saquon. The history is not on the Eagle side for a running back that has 350+ touches. There’s usually a regression and a lot of the guys didn’t make it through the following season healthy. Furthermore when you look into Saquon‘s career, he’s had over 350 touches 2 times in a season. the following year he got hurt. Now he also was less efficient but probably more cause the giants aren’t good 

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5 minutes ago, DaEagles4Life said:

 

This is really the concern. How's the knee feeling 

He'll be wearing a brace, but he'll be ready to go. 

Consensus seems to be MCL sprain 

4 minutes ago, jojodancer said:

Easy to say, to throw it away each time. I'd say in many cases it's an intentional grounding if he did. Could be better with this part of his game. The other thing, don't want him playing hero ball and throwing INTS while being rushed. Needs to improve there. No doubt. But living for another play is most important and securing that football.

I agree with the conservative approach in general considering the strength of this team.  But he can do better at killing plays when it's not open quickly.  Like the sack for the safety, he needs to just throw it in the ground somewhere near a receiver.  Worst case he gets an intentional grounding for the safety no different than taking the sack for the safety.  Best case you avoid the safety.

7 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

Higbee fumbled on that screen pass.  Refs missed it.  They also blew the whistle so not sure it could have been overturned but should have either been Eagles ball inside the Ram 30 or worst case the Rams may have retained possession but almost 10yrds further back.

I forgot about that, but you are right.

2 minutes ago, Birdman said:

He'll be wearing a brace, but he'll be ready to go. 

Consensus seems to be MCL sprain 

If Hurts plays but has no run threat, that's a big problem for our offense.  Commies will dare us to make Hurts pull it and run every time.

13 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

That puts him 18th for QBs.  Pretty much right where you'd expect him to be.  Plus he's probably going to drop a couple of spots most likely when Purdy and Donald get contracts.

I never understood this argument. Howie is the one choosing how he wants the cap allocated and if he wants to push the money into future years, that's his decision. Why does his accounting give a pass to Hurts performance? If Howie decided his cap strategy was to front load the cap hits, should Hurts then get more criticized?

6 minutes ago, Arsenal79 said:

I agree with the conservative approach in general considering the strength of this team.  But he can do better at killing plays when it's not open quickly.  Like the sack for the safety, he needs to just throw it in the ground somewhere near a receiver.  Worst case he gets an intentional grounding for the safety no different than taking the sack for the safety.  Best case you avoid the safety.

I agree with this criticism of Hurts. But it's blown out of proportion. Do we remember Carson Wentz here? Who played hero ball and couldn't live for another play. I'll have to take that baggage here. Also, he was playing on one leg in the snow. And just ducked for cover. Ironically, a safety actually worked out for Eagles there with what followed and field position flipping. Not too upset here.

7 minutes ago, Arsenal79 said:

They are going to load the box against Saquon like they did when Pickett came in for Hurts against them last time.

It's the most obvious game plan in the world, so Kellen Moore better have a plan to handle it instead of preparing for his upcoming Cowboys job.

I don’t think they are going to do that. Teams play a lot more afraid of Hurts/AJ/Smitty deep balls than people on this thread seem to be. Forcing Hurts to dink and dunk seems to be the plan a lot of times because he’s better deep than he is at the little slants and stuff. It’s one of the reasons the run game is so affective (other than the fact that the line and Saquon are awesome)

If the weather is real bad again then that could change obviously.
 

JMO 

 

 

Landon Dickerson lol

3 minutes ago, Arsenal79 said:

If Hurts plays but has no run threat, that's a big problem for our offense.  Commies will dare us to make Hurts pull it and run every time.

The counter is deep ball after deep ball 

11 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

Higbee fumbled on that screen pass.  Refs missed it.  They also blew the whistle so not sure it could have been overturned but should have either been Eagles ball inside the Ram 30 or worst case the Rams may have retained possession but almost 10yrds further back.

Rams were on it pretty quick, I don't think Eagles had a chance with the way the ball shot out but should have been 10ish yards back like you said. 

15 minutes ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

No.  First and goal sucks.  It must be a TD to have been a good throw.

You’re probably right. Short of the goal line.

10 minutes ago, Birdman said:

He'll be wearing a brace, but he'll be ready to go. 

Consensus seems to be MCL sprain 

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22 minutes ago, jojodancer said:

I agree with this criticism of Hurts. But it's blown out of proportion. Do we remember Carson Wentz here? Who played hero ball and couldn't live for another play. I'll have to take that baggage here. Also, he was playing on one leg in the snow. And just ducked for cover. Ironically, a safety actually worked out for Eagles there with what followed and field position flipping. Not too upset here.

It worked out because we stripped the ball from the Rams on the ensuing possession.  Otherwise taking the safety was not good.  It means the Rams beat you instead of just tie you with a FG, even through their starting field position might be slightly worse.

 

31 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

I'm watching the game again now.  I'll post about what I see with Hurts and a bit on Stafford

1st quarter - He was very solid in the 1st quarter.  Had the long run, four or five nice short passes, and put a long ball right on the numbers to Smith who couldn't hold on with the big hit.  The lone sack was 100% on the OL.  Lane slipped and the entire pocket collapsed on him with nowhere to go.  Stafford was well short on his deep ball but the Ram WR made a great play and stole the ball from Rodgers.

There are going to be several bad plays for Hurts as the game proceeds but none in the 1st quarter.

@HazletonEagle

 

2nd quarter - There was a sailed ball on 2nd and 8 from the 30yrd line with Brown open.  Next play Hurts waited too long and took a sack taking the Eagles out of FG range.  Becton was blown up but Hurts still had time to throw it away and give Elliott a shot.  This was a bad ending to a drive that was solid mixing in some Hurts runs and a short pass to Brown to convert a third down.  Couple of really nice drives pretty deep into Rams territory including the last one in the quarter from inside their own 10yrd line with some nice short passes and a Hurts scramble.  Neither drive resulted in pts.  Hurts failed to get the ball away and was sacked outside of FG range on the 1st one and then Brown's drop cost the Eagles on the 2nd one.  Hurts ended up getting sacked on a blitz over Becton that came completely free.  Not a Hurts sack and the Eagles were not in FG range.  Another sack on the final play but it didn't matter.

Hurts had one really bad play in the 1st half and that was when he waited too long and took a sack that took the Eagles out of FG range.  Otherwise, he was solid.

Another bad throw by Stafford which Rodgers nearly intercepted.  Otherwise, Stafford hit some nice short throws in rhythm.

 

All in all the Eagles really owned the first half and should have been up by 10pts.

 

Both Saquon long TDs were plays that were Hurts' audibles.

11 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

I never understood this argument. Howie is the one choosing how he wants the cap allocated and if he wants to push the money into future years, that's his decision. Why does his accounting give a pass to Hurts performance? If Howie decided his cap strategy was to front load the cap hits, should Hurts then get more criticized?

It doesn’t but it is relevant when discussing what Hurts does and doesn’t bring to the team and TEW just brought up the financial cost aspect.

Someone just needs to explain to me how AJ Brown can be wide open on a 4th and 4, running the simplest route besides a go route, and the Eagles don't just do that over and over again.  

12 minutes ago, Arsenal79 said:

We need to aggressively load manage Saquon starting next year.  Give him an extra game or two off against easy teams.  Get another back in here to take more carries also.  Gainwell has been fine on that front but I expect us to lose him.

There's some quality backs coming out this year. Grab one fairly early for Saquan to take under his wing, pun intended. I like the Rutgers back if he could make it to early day 3, the Ohio State backs are nice but probably out of our range as I don't see us going that high for one. 

22 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Yep. I brought this up last week with Saquon. The history is not on the Eagle side for a running back that has 350+ touches. There’s usually a regression and a lot of the guys didn’t make it through the following season healthy. Furthermore when you look into Saquon‘s career, he’s had over 350 touches 2 times in a season. the following year he got hurt. Now he also was less efficient but probably more cause the giants aren’t good 

Historically and generally speaking you are correct.  That's with average backs and specifically in Saquon's case, poor offensive lines (Giants) where the RB gets hit over and over again, typical short yardage gains, etc.  If you look at the majority of Saquon's carries this year, he rarely, if ever, gets hit hard.  Thanks in part to an elite line and his own elusiveness and running style.

Then add his off the field work ethic, his natural strength (he still squats over 600 lbs) - I believe that Saquon could be the exception to the "rule".  He could easily be highly effective into his 30's imo.  

28 minutes ago, Arsenal79 said:

We need to aggressively load manage Saquon starting next year.  Give him an extra game or two off against easy teams.  Get another back in here to take more carries also.  Gainwell has been fine on that front but I expect us to lose him.

Now that we have seen what a special running back looks like behind a special o-line, I would be much more willing to select a running back higher in the draft than I used to be. I think it’s safe to say that with Stoutland, the Eagles offensive line will always be special, or damn near.  Every running back that has come through this locker room has had their best years behind a Stoutland offensive line.  But there’s something to be said about pairing special with special.

9 minutes ago, Ace Nova said:

Historically and generally speaking you are correct.  That's with average backs and specifically in Saquon's case, poor offensive lines (Giants) where the RB gets hit over and over again, typical short yardage gains, etc.  If you look at the majority of Saquon's carries this year, he rarely, if ever, gets hit hard.  Thanks in part to an elite line and his own elusiveness and running style.

Then add his off the field work ethic, his natural strength (he still squats over 600 lbs) - I believe that Saquon could be the exception to the "rule".  He could easily be highly effective into his 30's imo.  

It’s not just average backs. Cmc 2023-24 (also did it in Carolina and same thing), Jonathan Taylor 2021-22, Henry 2020-21 and then 2022-23. There’s even more i listed than those 3 last week. Those backs either got hurt the following year and/or had a regression. I would add I think his long runs cover up for the fact there’s been times this year where he’s gotten hit and left the field. Gainwell finished out the series and started the following series. Yesterday he took a shot to the wrist. And that was a hard hit by the rams defender

can he stay healthy and do it? Yes. Has previous history at the position and even in his own career shown you that there’s a higher chance he doesn’t? Also, yes.

 

32 minutes ago, Arsenal79 said:

We need to aggressively load manage Saquon starting next year.  Give him an extra game or two off against easy teams.  Get another back in here to take more carries also.  Gainwell has been fine on that front but I expect us to lose him.

TBH I'm not sure we'll lose Gainwell.  The RB market is still saturated with RB's with similar skill sets.  Henry, Barkely and a few others have helped the market but that's primarily for your elite, home run hitting type of backs,  (If I were to guess, maybe 5-10 RB's as of now).  

42 minutes ago, DaEagles4Life said:

 

This is really the concern. How's the knee feeling 

I expected it to be much worse from reading the comments last night.  This appears to be more muscle fatigue than structural damage.  I don't see a pronounced limp.

A few sessions in a hyperbaric chamber.

 

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1 minute ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

It’s not just average backs. Cmc 2023-24, Jonathan Taylor 2021-22, Henry 2020-21 and then 2022-23. There’s even more i listed than those 3 last week. Those those backs either got hurt the following year and/or had a regression. I would add I think his long runs cover up for the fact there’s been times this year where he’s gotten hit and left the field. Gainwell finished out the series and started the following series. Yesterday he took a shot to the wrist. And that was a hard hit by the rams defender 

 

 

I think the Eagles should handle it on a case by case basis.  If they see him losing a step next season or two then obviously lessen his workload - but with this offensive line, his running style - barring some sort of injury, I don't foresee it happening in his case.  I truly think he's a special player and should have plenty of highly productive years left with this team and offensive line. 

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