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EMB Blog: 2024 Regular Season (Part 2) ... and Playoffs

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2 minutes ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

Are there sites that distinguish scramble yards from designed run yards?

I'd be OK with including scrambles (and resulting first downs) in passing stats.

Don't know but I don't like using total yards for any QB. I prefer to keep them separate to tell the clearer picture

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1 minute ago, NOTW said:

Everyone complained when he was version A, and now that he's version B and they are winning you're still complaining.

The overwhelming majority of people "complaining" are doing so because people are still acting as if he's version A.

He isn't. He does less, he still makes mistakes, but he's mostly efficient. The run game and the defense are our bread and butter. Hurts is complementary of that, but we need to be realistic (not you, but in general) of what he is.

He isn't a consistent passer so leaning on him to pass a ton over a span of multiple games is likely a recipe for disaster. That isn't to say he can't string together some drives or have a decent game, but let's stick to what we do best.

Run, play defense, ask Hurts not to screw up.

27 minutes ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

It really does seem to be a bit.  Arrogance?  We'll show up after the 4th commercial break?

Not sure if the saying even exists in english but over here we say: A good horse only jumps as high as it has to. 😁

22 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

Ah ok. I don't watch those anymore. Too much crap to get views

He's spinning what has been said. They have highlighted that we are asking him to throw less -- from over 30 times a game before the bye to more like 20-24 times a game after the bye. They aren't simplifying reads or design, they are just calling more runs. Up until the last 2 games (coincidentally without DeVonta), they were actually asking him to throw less but more aggressively -- his YPA was way up. 

CLE - 10.6, NYG - 8.1, CIN - 11.8, JAX - 9.6, DAL - 10.1, WSH - 7.9, LAR - 8.1, BAL - 6.2

He is 6th in the league in YPA at 8.2. Goff leads at 8.8. 

It's not making things simple. It's fewer throws but more down the field.

1 minute ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

Again, I think that folks are using simplified to mean run more / throw less.  Which, ironically, is exactly what this fanbase wants.  

Exactly.  The O-line and Barkley is the identity of the offense. Running the ball more should be what the fanbase wants.

Even with 2 All Pro caliber WRs and a good TE, you'd think they could throw it all over the field but they don't.  I don't feel Hurts is that type of QB.

Now I give Hurts a ton of props because he's played really good.  Hasn't turned the ball over, been making good decisions, making big plays with his legs when needed.

The way they've been playing, Hurts doesn't need to throw for 300, 400 yards but I do worry if Barkley gets hurt and can't go if Jalen can make enough plays throwing the ball.

 

1 hour ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

No players drafted by Andy Reid played a snap. The last time that happened, Irving Fryar was our X receiver 

Man that guy sucks at drafting 

1 hour ago, Diehardfan said:

Not really. He's maddening to watch at times and hits a few open people a game leaving so much more on the table a real QB wouldn't. Take SB off this team and they wouldn't have the record they do. He's Trent Dilfer who can run.

There is merit to what you are saying, but you are swinging the pendulum way too far from center toward the negative, just as RTK swings the pendulum way too far toward the positive 

6 minutes ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

Are there sites that distinguish scramble yards from designed run yards?

I'd be OK with including scrambles (and resulting first downs) in passing stats.

 

EDIT:  The NFL includes sack yardage lost as part of a teams net passing yards.  Why not scrambles?

RB stats will include all purpose yards when their receiving stats are significant. But they are still reported separate. When a RB has a lot of receiving yards no one complains that they are a RB playing WR, they should just stick to playing RB. But with QBs who run, some fans just really, really, really hate it. Despite the evolution of QBs running more and being dual threats. I think there should be balance, and not put the QB at too much risk. And the primary job of a QB is delivering the ball to playmakers. But having running ability isn't a bad thing in addition. The announcers and analysts on TV always praise Hurts and the Eagles offense for utilizing his running ability, they say it really makes it difficult for a defense. 

Use anything you can to your advantage. Some O linemen are more athletic and can get out in space. Some WRs are better at blocking than others. Some defensive players are versatile and can play multiple positions. Some QBs use their running ability. But people only hate when QBs use a variety skill set.

1 hour ago, Swoop said:

The Eagles are only ahead of Carolina, New England, Tennessee and the Giants in passing.

He is unquestionably a game manager 

You are using a single stat … badly.  If you rank the teams by QB Rating the Eagles are 8th out of 32 rather than your 27th out of 32.

4 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Man that guy sucks at drafting 

Only one left from Kelly ;)

 

1 minute ago, Swoop said:

He isn't a consistent passer so leaning on him to pass a ton over a span of multiple games is likely a recipe for disaster. That isn't to say he can't string together some drives or have a decent game, but let's stick to what we do best.

Run, play defense, ask Hurts not to screw up.

Look, even if I give you the consistency in general - I just don't think it's a fair take.

Because Hurts has been throwing a great deep ball. It's a huge upside to his game to always be able to do that.

Even though not all were caught, they almost always are wonderful throws right where they need to be which is and will always be a major factor, a threat to defenses that people have to respect.. or Hurts will make them pay throwing to AJ or Smitty deep.

And then the ability to run with it.

Both are elite skills to have that a 'regular' game manager just doesn't add to your offense.

9 minutes ago, Swoop said:

The overwhelming majority of people "complaining" are doing so because people are still acting as if he's version A.

He isn't. He does less, he still makes mistakes, but he's mostly efficient. The run game and the defense are our bread and butter. Hurts is complementary of that, but we need to be realistic (not you, but in general) of what he is.

He isn't a consistent passer so leaning on him to pass a ton over a span of multiple games is likely a recipe for disaster. That isn't to say he can't string together some drives or have a decent game, but let's stick to what we do best.

Run, play defense, ask Hurts not to screw up.

That's what they've been doing, and they're winning and it's working. So...we should be happy.

I think people are complaining that he's not version C elite passer, which he never was and never will be. His stats in 2023 were similar to 2022 except INTs. The defense was about the worst in the league. Having a top defense and a QB not turning the ball over is a huge difference from last year. I don't care if he's a game manager, that's not garbage or trash. If they win I don't care. We won a SB with a backup QB who was streaky, and got hot in the playoffs. I just want the team to win.

Some fans also trash him as a person which is disgusting and completely uncalled for. I get frustrated with his play at times too, and there was a really bad game earlier this year I said bench him, he's out of it today. Benching McNabb in 2008 helped him. But calling him trash and the absolute hate he gets is over the top, and not what a fan should be.

15 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

Don't know but I don't like using total yards for any QB. I prefer to keep them separate to tell the clearer picture

QB running yards and TDs are significant and contribute to the team moving the ball down the field and scoring. Same as a WR who gets a handoff or toss play and gains rushing yards, or a RB who catches passes. They use all purpose yards for RBs and receivers, so they can do that for QBs. I agree, it's misleading. When presenting stats for QBs people can do it like with RBs. # of pass yards, # of all purpose yards. or just list both separately. But you also don't ignore the rushing yards for QBs, they are a part of the game.

Enjoying the hell out of this.

3 minutes ago, mattwill said:

You are using a single stat … badly.  If you rank the teams by QB Rating the Eagles are 8th out of 32 rather than your 27th out of 32.

I'm not arguing he's not efficient, though. I'm saying he's a game manager. His yards are low because his attempts are low. That's fine. It's because we're asking him to do very little. To me, that is a game manager. No one is saying that you can't win with it or be efficient with it. So no, I don't think I am.

2 minutes ago, Infam said:

Look, even if I give you the consistency in general - I just don't think it's a fair take.

Because Hurts has been throwing a great deep ball. It's a huge upside to his game to always be able to do that.

Even though not all were caught, they almost always are wonderful throws right where they need to be which is and will always be a major factor, a threat to defenses that people have to respect.. or Hurts will make them pay throwing to AJ or Smitty deep.

And then the ability to run with it.

Both are elite skills to have that a 'regular' game manager just doesn't add to your offense.

First, no one is arguing he doesn't throw a nice deep ball. At least, I'm not.

Second, he's average 207 passing yards a game this season. A game manager can absolutely hit a deep throw per game. Let's not pretend like he's throwing 35 yard bombs all day.

2 hours ago, wussbasket said:

Did you see how many yards Lamar left out on the field yesterday? Every QB does it. Nobody is saying Hurts is a top QB and he's the reason for all the winning. Winning takes a team, and Hurts is part of that team.

I’ll take that a step further.  Tua arguably did not leave a single yard on the field this week as a passer.  He was very very close to perfect by Swoop’s measurement.  Nonetheless, his team lost the game.

2 minutes ago, RLC said:

Enjoying the hell out of this.

 

The change on defense is so dramatic. Helluva offseason. Baun, Q, DeJean, CJGJ added and making huge impact. Fangio has them playing smart and coaching to their strengths. Carter is a beast. Fangio is getting the best out of guys like Dean, Davis, Nolan Smith. They have Slay and BG out and are still playing great.

54 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

I did a quick google search and found 2023 articles but nothing on 2024. So clearly I'm not seeing what you're seeing. So where did you find it?

Source: "Trust me, bro"

Guys, the simple answer is this -- in eight straight games, no one has forced us to change the plan. We just faced the top rush defense in the league and they couldn't stop our rushing attack (140 yards). More importantly, we just faced the top offense in the league and they couldn't get a big lead on us to force us into must pass situations. Everyone keeps worrying about the game where a team stops the run, gets a big lead, and can Jalen bring us back throwing 35+ times. If the Ravens, with the best offense and rush defense in the league, couldn't bring about that reality, who can?

Furthermore, we know Jalen is capable of doing so at times (see: Bowl, Super). Right now he is running the offense that is called. If a team puts 8-9 in the box consistently to stop the run, and succeeds, I'm confident Jalen can make some plays. The key is the defense never letting us get down big. 

There's no reason to alter the formula until someone actually makes us.

I guess people are getting mad because "game manager” implies that Hurts is "bad.”

Personally, when I use the term, that’s not what I mean. If anything, it should signify Hurts’ willingness to work for the betterment of the team. To set aside his ego because it’s the best chance to win.

And Hurts is a winner in my eyes. By all accounts he is an incredibly hard worker and we all saw what he did in the Super Bowl to try to will us to a second Lombardi.

Now all that said, Hurts isn’t perfect. Not even close. We absolutely would be passing more if we had Brady or Manning under center. He’s not that guy and never will be.

But you work with what you have, and Hurts can and does win you football games. I don’t want him chucking the ball 40 times. That’s not playing to his strengths, let alone the team’s.

With the way this team is set up, an efficient game manager could very easily win us a Super Bowl. Ball control, stingy defense, and some timely 3rd down conversions from Hurts. He doesn’t need to be anything more than that. Just keep the chains moving as one cog in the machine.

11 minutes ago, NOTW said:

QB running yards and TDs are significant and contribute to the team moving the ball down the field and scoring. Same as a WR who gets a handoff or toss play and gains rushing yards, or a RB who catches passes. They use all purpose yards for RBs and receivers, so they can do that for QBs. I agree, it's misleading. When presenting stats for QBs people can do it like with RBs. # of pass yards, # of all purpose yards. or just list both separately. But you also don't ignore the rushing yards for QBs, they are a part of the game.

I was never saying to ignore the rushing yards. I just don't like when they use total stats to beef up a QBs stats

1 hour ago, vikas83 said:

There's a small part of me that is starting to think it is intentional at this point. Rope a dope every week to start the game. It's the only way I can explain it, because we know Moore will commit to the run.

Have either Nick or Kellen definitively stated whether they're still using a 15 play script to start the games? A lot of fans overreact when a certain play type does or doesn't work on the first drive or two and expects immediate change in the next play or next possession, but abandoning the initial script is still fairly rare from what I've heard.

Elite -->> a couple delusional fans think he's here
Great-->> a few fans make the case he's here
Efficient Game Manager -->> Hurts is here
Below Average-->> a few fans make the case he's here
Trash/Garbage -->> some over the top negative fans say he's here

It's a question for the future but what happens when we use up Barkley and have to move on? You don't find a RB with that type of talent in FA (thank you Giants). Would Howie actually spend a high pick on a RB?

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