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EMB Blog: 2024 Regular Season (Part 2) ... and Playoffs

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13 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

I think it's interesting to ponder. Lots of 1 position games getting flipped. Interesting to see the outcome 🤷‍♂️

Are they actual one possession games? How many times does a team just run out the clock to keep possession instead of trying to score? Or an opposing team scores because the game is over and the defense is playing soft. It’s pretty pointless imo. 

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14 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

Eagles 2025 Schedule:

Detroit

Las Vegas

Kansas City

Tampa Bay

Seattle

Minnesota

Green Bay

Houston

Los Angeles C

Denver

Chicago

Washington

Washington

Dallas

Dallas

New York G

New York G


 

Good god

Sheet. If qb1 doesn't learn how to throw... that's going to be tough

10 minutes ago, RLC said:

NFC N & AFC W. Happens when you get good divisions + 1st place schedule (Atlanta/TB + probably Seattle).

I want Seattle. We're finally going to beat them with no Carroll 

Just now, WentzFan11 said:

Are they actual one possession games? How many times does a team just run out the clock to keep possession instead of trying to score? Or an opposing team scores because the game is over and the defense is playing soft. It’s pretty pointless imo. 

Don't know. A lot of you are overanalyzing it IMO

It's just a way for a fan of some crap team to convince themselves that their crap team is SO CLOSE to not being a crap team.  

38 minutes ago, twistr said:

Man the Hurts hand wringing and irrational hate in here make this place insufferable. It's fine to criticize but just the absolutely moronic hate and pretending that the last 2 games are the mean and not the likely outliers considering the rest of his career suck the joy out of being a fan of an 11-2 team with a defense and running game that might be able to carry regardless.

As with any argument, the content will move towards the extreme in order to try to accentuate a position.  Hurts isn't costing the Eagles any games right now; the team is 11-2.  Can the Eagles win the Super Bowl with their current formula of a top 5 defense, ground attack, eliminating turnovers, and a cautious passing attack?  Perhaps.  It's not like it's never been done before.  I would say in the current 2024 NFL where the rules favor passing offenses it makes it more difficult, though.

My concern with Hurts' level of play this season (and much of last season) is the slow starts and the turnovers.  Hurts has successfully minimized his turnovers and he should be praised for that.  The Eagles' slow starts is a recurring issue that has plagued them all season, though, and I believe in the playoffs will bite them if it isn't fixed.  I see no reason given the talent on the offensive side why the team should be starting so slowly; I'm sure everyone at NovaCare is searching for the explanation as well.  We know Hurts CAN do it -- he put up 35 points in the Super Bowl two years ago.  We also know he isn't playing close to that level right now -- he's only thrown for 300 yards once this season, and over 250 yards only 3 times in 13 starts (all in the first 5 games). 

The big unknown is -- if the Eagles need Hurts to bring the team back from 10+ points down in a playoff game, can he do it?  The fear is there will be a game in January/February where he will need to.  

16 hours ago, bpac55 said:

FYI, any of you gents out there cat calling last week? Wonder how this would look if the tables were turned🤣 This is from the Philadelphia Eagles Fan Group on FB.

Missed connection and complete long shot—
Leaving the Eagles game I was walking through parking lot S next to Citizens Bank Park and a very cute guys was getting into the back drivers side seat of a pickup truck. As I passed he yelled "you’re so beautiful, I just wanted you to know that” so something along the lines of that. Of course I was shy and a little stunned so just yelled thank you! I was so flattered.
Anyways, I should have stopped and exchanged numbers but missed my opportunity! By the time I had the guts to turn around, they were driving away. If anyone happens to know a group of 4 or 5 guys that went to the game and drove a darker grey or gold/grey pickup truck with 4 door type body, parked in citizen lot, please pass this along! Tall and white with facial hair. Got into the 2nd row on driver side. Figured worth a shot these days since apps sucks and this never happens! I know this doesn’t narrow it down much. 🤦‍♀️. Here’s what I was wearing
 
May be an image of 2 people and text

image.jpeg.e7038f4cb16109dad7c8775523110653.jpeg

51 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

That's apparently not true and his son isn't happy

Wilson had the Legion of Boom and Beast Mode. C'mon man

Glad it’s not true. Larry fitzgerald’s dad tweeted he didn’t so I’m guessing he’s dealing with a lot of crap today 

 

1 minute ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

 

That's the more troubling one IMO. He's the quiet type that just does his job

8 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

 

When the team passes for 100 yards 3 games in a row, the WRs are going to be mad.  

38 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

These exercises are always dumb. "What if teams lost instead of won? Bad teams are good now?! Now way!”

Not to mention, many "one possession games" are comfortable wins that the opposing teams get garbage time scores to make it seem close.

8 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

That's the more troubling one IMO. He's the quiet type that just does his job

Yes.

Here's the other thing:

Who can honestly believe Hurts is also content with how the passing game is? Chances are he'd agree that he/the passing attack need to be better. Yes they're winning. Yes there are glaring issues that need to be fixed.

He's not playing up to standard right now. The overwhelming majority of the team, coaching staff, fanbase and Hurts himself would agree.

What's the actual argument here? 

4 minutes ago, NCiggles said:

When the team passes for 100 yards 3 games in a row, the WRs are going to be mad.  

Eh, Devonta hadn't played since the Commanders game.  I get being upset, but it was his first game back, so not sure why he'd be as upset as AJ.

I think the argument should not be about passing yards because they are doing so much more in the run game. I think the argument should be concerns about HOW they execute the passing game

If last year after the collapse and embarrassing loss in the playoffs someone told you that you could get the top RB in the league and win games but you would reduce Hurts passing yards by about 400 and replace Swift's 1,049 rushing yards with the top RB in the league rushing for around 2,000 yards, would that sound good? Add in the top defense in the league and that's the formula Philly fans have wanted for decades right?

WR numbers extrapolated for the season (*We'll see if they end up resting starters which would lower all these)

  • AJ is on pace for 1,170 yard season and he missed 3 games. If he played all 17 games based on his average it would be a 1,421 yard season.
  • Smitty is on pace for 774 yards and he also missed 3 games. If he played all 17 games based on his average it would be a 940 yard season.
  • AJ's numbers are good, just slightly down from prior seasons, Smitty's are down a bit more from prior seasons. But they are feeding the top RB in the league instead.

Hurts numbers extrapolated for the season

  • Average yards per game so far is 200. Over 17 games that's 3,402 yards
  • 2022 yards: 3701 (considered his best season)
  • 2023 yards: 3858 (more yards than his best season, but a lot of turnovers and less wins, and 1 and done in playoffs)
  • 2024 projection: 3402. 

So these numbers (I know, not the eye test) tell us that Hurts passing yards aren't that much of an issue, the WRs are getting their yards close to last year but the running game is producing more this year and they are winning. Last year Tua, Dak and Purdy were in the top 5, this year you have Burrow, Geno Smith, Cousins, Mayfield and Stafford, none of their teams are considered top SB contenders.

Forgetting stats, I think the issue is in how Hurts is executing the pass plays. They are capable of doing more. Too often, Hurts is hesitant, missing open receivers and making some bad decisions. He seems overcorrecting from the turnovers, being less risky. He says he's doing what he's asked to do. There were times this season that he's done much better in the passing game, deep throws, throwing to the middle of the field, accurate throws in tighter coverage. I am guessing it's a combo of the play calling, the coaches trying to get him to reduce turnovers and him taking that too far and getting in his head and taking too much time and trying to play it safe. I agree that a better passer at QB would have this offense doing much more in the pass game. But what they have is a dual threat QB that defenses have to account for his running. They have tried to find a winning formula with running Barkley and reducing Hurts attempts. What needs to happen is Hurts being more efficient with those attempts, not necessarily making a lot more attempts. Make better reads, be less hesitant and get out of his head. Someone suggested they break the snap earlier to give him more time to review the defense. That's a simple adjustment they could make. 

We will find out if this current formula will win in the playoffs, and what will happen if and when Hurts needs to rely more on passing to win games. But that's the concern, not the stat sheet.

4 minutes ago, Swoop said:

Yes.

Here's the other thing:

Who can honestly believe Hurts is also content with how the passing game is? Chances are he'd agree that he/the passing attack need to be better. Yes they're winning. Yes there are glaring issues that need to be fixed.

He's not playing up to standard right now. The overwhelming majority of the team, coaching staff, fanbase and Hurts himself would agree.

What's the actual argument here? 

You're not allowed to criticize the QB while they're winning. That's the general gist that I'm getting

WRs: complain after a win they don't get the ball (in other news, water is wet).

Barkley: on the verge of setting NFL records, tells Siri to put the other guys in and let them eat.

 

37 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

He's converting them at a higher rate than the league average, and probably one of the highest in the league over the past 3 seasons. You can argue that any QB behind our line would have similar success (likely true), but it's misleading to imply it's not a high-value play we have at our disposal that other teams don't (see how Detroit almost lost to the Packers because they couldn't easily convert 4th and 1 at will like we can.)

But do those QBs squat 600 lbs?

 

49 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

As with any argument, the content will move towards the extreme in order to try to accentuate a position.  Hurts isn't costing the Eagles any games right now; the team is 11-2.  Can the Eagles win the Super Bowl with their current formula of a top 5 defense, ground attack, eliminating turnovers, and a cautious passing attack?  Perhaps.  It's not like it's never been done before.  I would say in the current 2024 NFL where the rules favor passing offenses it makes it more difficult, though.

My concern with Hurts' level of play this season (and much of last season) is the slow starts and the turnovers.  Hurts has successfully minimized his turnovers and he should be praised for that.  The Eagles' slow starts is a recurring issue that has plagued them all season, though, and I believe in the playoffs will bite them if it isn't fixed.  I see no reason given the talent on the offensive side why the team should be starting so slowly; I'm sure everyone at NovaCare is searching for the explanation as well.  We know Hurts CAN do it -- he put up 35 points in the Super Bowl two years ago.  We also know he isn't playing close to that level right now -- he's only thrown for 300 yards once this season, and over 250 yards only 3 times in 13 starts (all in the first 5 games). 

The big unknown is -- if the Eagles need Hurts to bring the team back from 10+ points down in a playoff game, can he do it?  The fear is there will be a game in January/February where he will need to.  

Like I said, criticism is fine and I'll add in many cases warranted. He does look like he's slower to process, but part of that, likely, is he's trying to read things in a different way than he was asked to do previously. We know this system has more under center than he's previously run. We know it's likely that the new OC and QB coach have implemented ways of attacking the defenses that he's not used to. I don't think Hurts is the quickest study. There are multiple learning aptitudes out there with the particular types that I am thinking of are the ones who learn quick but never master and the deep learners who take a while but then master to their level of ability. If Hurts is the later, then we won't see his optimal performance in this system likely until next year.

We also know from interviews that teams show us different things than they have on tape defensively in the first most of the time. I don't think Hurts is an all world QB, he, at his best, is a upper mid-tier thrower with lack of anticipation but a great deep ball for having a mediocre arm. He also provides scrambling and running (sometimes too early and often). He's thinking too much and not "just playing", but he's also protecting the ball while he does that.

Another aspect that we haven't really talked a huge amount about is that this team has a history of looking past bad, non-division teams. My feeling on it is that we almost never play well against bad teams before big games the following week (classic trap game mentality). I haven't looked at the data trends on that, again, it's just a feeling.

To me there are multiple things going on with the team, some Hurts regression (could be because of new info or risk adversity), some what teams are attacking us with, some the OC and HC being infatuated with Saquon and what he can do to the detriment of being risk adverse and relying too much on it. But it's not nearly as bad as many make it out to be. We do need to improve these things if we're going to reach where we want this season.

OK, long dissertation on Hurts/passing game. The TLDR version -- Hurts has overcorrected, but we have seen in the past he is willing to throw it down the field. Hopefully we can get back to a happy medium of taking intelligent risk down the field.

I think to really break this down correctly, you have to go back to the Super Bowl. In the 2 playoff games we won to get to Arizona, Hurts basically had to do nothing. We ran all over the Giants, and once Purdy was out, there was no reason to risk throws and turnovers. So we get to the Super Bowl and...Jalen goes OFF. Our RBs only get 45 yards on 17 carries (putrid 2.64 YPC), and Jalen throws for 304 and runs for 70. I was at the game, and even there it was clear he was making some rather insane tight window throws (especially to Goedert) and having the best passing game of his career when the team needed it because the defense and running game were non-existent. After that game, there was real hope that he had broken through, and the Eagles gave him an extension and locked him up believing there was more to come.

Going into 2023, we lose Shane and replace him with Brian Johnson, and clearly the new emphasis was on making us more of a passing team. While Swift eventually emerged, remember we went into week 1 with Gainwell as RB1. So the offense was now geared more to treating Hurts like the guy from the Super Bowl. Then he hurts his leg, so the running disappears from his game as well. I also think the contract put a ton of pressure on him, as well as the Super Bowl hangover (have been told the whole team was basically angry and bitter, feeling they got screwed by the refs and the field). Jalen went from attempting ~30.6 passes per game in 2022 to 32.6 per game in 2023 (removing the final Giants game), but his YPA went from 8.0 in 2022 to 7.2 in 2023. We were throwing more, but less effectively, and he was throwing picks. The takeaway -- the Super Bowl was his apex, not a reflection of his sustainable level.

Howie brings in Saquon for 2024 -- I think a HUUUUUUUUUGE reason for this was they wanted someone to help close out games in the 4 minute offense, something Swift was terrible at (think about how many times we failed in 2023 at this). Swift got what was blocked, but not much more. He also had a habit of bouncing runs looking for the homerun as opposed to being a grinder. I think the goal for 2024 was to get to a version of 2022 with a homerun back. Combined with a healthier Hurts, the read option game would allow Hurts and Barkley to help each other reach a new level as a runner. That has worked -- Barkley is having a historic year, and Jalen's runs and scrambles are MUCH better this year. 

However, through the 1st 4 games, Hurts was still trying to be the guy from the Super Bowl, letting it rip into tight windows. And he threw 4 picks, fumbled, and was costing the team with his turnovers. It is pretty clear that over the bye week, Nick and Kellen told him to dial it back, take fewer chances and protect the ball. And while he has done that, he has overcorrected and become too cautious. Now, the perplexing part is he was throwing the ball down the field up until the Washington game. It's like the pick in Dallas scared him and made him super cautious again. 

All in all, if we get the guy from week 5 - 9, we are going to be very hard to beat. This offense needs to combine a power running attack with vertical passing, not calling a bunch of underneath stuff. It plays to Jalen and the receivers' strengths to take more down field shots. The question is can Nick and Kellen convince Jalen to start letting it fly again? I think/hope the answer is yes. 

Honestly, the illusion of his Super Bowl performance created unrealistic expectations among fans, the media and even the FO for a bit. Jalen is what he is -- a unique player whose rushing threat is valuable to help the overall running attack, and a good vertical passer. He's not a guy who will thrive in a system with a bunch of underneath, option routes based on timing. I see him as a less talented, harder working version of McNabb who is willing to keep running the ball. We can win with that. 

4 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

 

This has been a real disappointment -- the complete lack of big off schedule plays. Was reading something on ESPN (I think) about how defenses have basically been rushing in a way to lure Hurts into escaping to his right, and flooding coverage to that side of the field to take away throws. We need to counter that by getting Hurts not to bail (he does it less often than he used to) and having better answers on the scramble drill.

Nick Sirianni today 👍

30 minutes ago, MF POON said:

Eh, Devonta hadn't played since the Commanders game.  I get being upset, but it was his first game back, so not sure why he'd be as upset as AJ.

Because the games he played before, he has been having the same issue.  Have you looked at his stats?  The guy is open every play.

  • Author
1 hour ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

Eagles 2025 Schedule:

Detroit

Las Vegas

Kansas City

Tampa Bay

Seattle

Minnesota

Green Bay

Houston

Los Angeles C

Denver

Chicago

Washington

Washington

Dallas

Dallas

New York G

New York G


 

Good god

The only teams Sirianni hasn't beaten are Seattle, Las Vegas, and LA Chargers.

He gets them all next season.

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