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EMB Blog: 2024 Regular Season (Part 2) ... and Playoffs

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5 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

I don’t argue that at all. The passing game needs to be better no doubt. Hurts needs to be better no question. I just don’t think it’s as bad as is being made out this week.

Recency bias is real.  BUT, the trend over the last few weeks is concerning too.  It isn't just one week, it just got really bad this week, to the point that his teammates are reacting to it.

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4 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

 

The above is what I was referring to that was a false dilemma.  

Dilemma you presented: 
Option A: Being 100% satisfied with Hurts' current performance (and stats) or 
Option B: Winning 3 or 4 games a year with a QB that puts up 5000 yards and 40 TDs.

There's a huge spectrum between those extremes.  

Current performance/stats?

Do you mean the last 2 games?

I have been referring to his career as a whole and this season as a whole.  

Other than maybe the last game;  since the bye week, Hurts has been solid and performing like a top 10 QB

2 hours ago, vikas83 said:

This has been a real disappointment -- the complete lack of big off schedule plays. Was reading something on ESPN (I think) about how defenses have basically been rushing in a way to lure Hurts into escaping to his right, and flooding coverage to that side of the field to take away throws. We need to counter that by getting Hurts not to bail (he does it less often than he used to) and having better answers on the scramble drill.

This has been a years long issue. They have always sucked during the scramble drill and I have no idea why. Half the time the WR's aren't turning around, the other half they are running to the same spot of the field and cluttering everything up. If they don't do either of those things, they never actually come back to the ball. It's maddening.

Every time Hurts starts pointing to tell them what to do you just know the play is going to end badly. 

3 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

That's not mentioning a percentage.   The Eagles go to that well way more than other teams.  I'm frankly not sure that's a good thing, in fact, I'm pretty sure that it's not.  They give away opportunities for big plays on 3rd and short in the middle of the field because they settle for getting 1 yard.  

But, the fact that the Eagles hit on the sneak at a rate of like 93-95% versus the league average over 83%.  It's really not that great a delta.  Its nice, but its not some massive advantage over ALL the other teams in the league, and even against the league average its only 1 extra conversion for every 10 attempts.  It's dominance is highly overrated.  It's nice to have in the back pocket for big moments, but they rely on it way too much.

That stat is apples to oranges.

The stat for the league is 4th and a yard or less to go for traditional QB sneaks.

The Eagles over the past 3 seasons use the tush push when there is TWO yards or less to go.  HUGE difference.

I would guess on at least half the attempts they average at least 1.5 or more yards (to go) on the tush push.

 

1 minute ago, Ace Nova said:

Current performance/stats?

Do you mean the last 2 games?

I have been referring to his career as a whole and this season as a whole.  

Other than maybe the last game;  since the bye week, Hurts has been solid and performing like a top 10 QB

We are talking about current performance.  What he did in 2022 is irrelevant now.  For that matter, what he did in Week 8 is irrelevant now.   He needs to play better than he is currently, which is what many folks are saying.  

He's getting sacked too frequently, holding the ball too long and missing open receivers too many times.  That's his current performance.  And it needs to improve if this team has any hope for having a deep playoff run, which is looking like a longer road than any of the years that this team went to the Super Bowl in the past.  It's going to take 3 wins, not just 2.  And, it will be against better competition than in the most recent Super Bowl appearances.  

2 hours ago, Khani1 said:

Because the games he played before, he has been having the same issue.  Have you looked at his stats?  The guy is open every play.

Yep. It's a shame to have someone as good as Smith, only miss 3 games, and end up with 700 some yards in 14 games. 

1 minute ago, Ace Nova said:

That stat is apples to oranges.

The stat for the league is 4th and a yard or less to go for traditional QB sneaks.

The Eagles over the past 3 seasons use the tush push when there is TWO yards or less to go.  HUGE difference.

I would guess on at least half the attempts they average at least 1.5 or more yards (to go) on the tush push.

And I would guess you are wrong on that guess.   We are at an impasse now.  The Tush Push is overrated in my view.  

3 hours ago, ToastJenkins said:

You keep adding qualifiers to manipulate the stats to support your narrative 

three types of lies and all

The Eagles use the tush push whenever there is less than TWO yards to go NOT JUST when there is less than one yard to go.

If you have watched every game over the past 3 years you would know this. 

3 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

We are talking about current performance.  What he did in 2022 is irrelevant now.  For that matter, what he did in Week 8 is irrelevant now.   He needs to play better than he is currently, which is what many folks are saying.  

He's getting sacked too frequently, holding the ball too long and missing open receivers too many times.  That's his current performance.  And it needs to improve if this team has any hope for having a deep playoff run, which is looking like a longer road than any of the years that this team went to the Super Bowl in the past.  It's going to take 3 wins, not just 2.  And, it will be against better competition than in the most recent Super Bowl appearances.  

I agree the passing game should be better than the last game but other than that game, Hurts has improved dramatically since the bye week - he rarely makes the same mistakes he was making prior to the bye week.  
 

If anything, he’s become a little too conservative. 

Who doesn't like some dome on football Sunday?

4 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

And I would guess you are wrong on that guess.   We are at an impasse now.  The Tush Push is overrated in my view.  

Have you watched every game over the past 3 seasons?  Commentators even joke about it - as long as the Eagles get to within 2 yards by 3rd down they can get the first down.  
 

1st and 8 sound familiar?  It should because it’s been repeated frequently over the past 3 seasons. 

Last game against the Steelers in Philly;

Steelers @ Eagles Week 8 2022

Eagles - 35

Steelers -13

 

AJ had 165 Yards and 3 TD's off only 6 receptions.   Miles Sanders hand 9 carries for 78 yards and TD.   Jalen had over 300 Total Yards and 4 TD's.   

34 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

Im all for a dome to attract larger events. But Id want the roof open except for rain, or a blizzard. Id let it be cold for football. It let it be hot. Id let there be snow as long as its not a crazy storm where fans have to shovel out seats like in buffalo. I wouldn't want to get rid of the elements completely. 

 

 

That's not how it would work.  

 

4 minutes ago, KINGnabb said:

Last game against the Steelers in Philly;

Steelers @ Eagles Week 8 2022

Eagles - 35

Steelers -13

 

AJ had 165 Yards and 3 TD's off only 6 receptions.   Miles Sanders hand 9 carries for 78 yards and TD.   Jalen had over 300 Total Yards and 4 TD's.   

Great!  And Hurts has regressed significantly since this game.  

17 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

This has been a years long issue. They have always sucked during the scramble drill and I have no idea why. Half the time the WR's aren't turning around, the other half they are running to the same spot of the field and cluttering everything up. If they don't do either of those things, they never actually come back to the ball. It's maddening.

Every time Hurts starts pointing to tell them what to do you just know the play is going to end badly. 

This I agree with.  Not sure what the heck is going on with their scramble drills and whose fault it is but that is one area that needs attention, imo. 

2 hours ago, vikas83 said:

OK, long dissertation on Hurts/passing game. The TLDR version -- Hurts has overcorrected, but we have seen in the past he is willing to throw it down the field. Hopefully we can get back to a happy medium of taking intelligent risk down the field.

I think to really break this down correctly, you have to go back to the Super Bowl. In the 2 playoff games we won to get to Arizona, Hurts basically had to do nothing. We ran all over the Giants, and once Purdy was out, there was no reason to risk throws and turnovers. So we get to the Super Bowl and...Jalen goes OFF. Our RBs only get 45 yards on 17 carries (putrid 2.64 YPC), and Jalen throws for 304 and runs for 70. I was at the game, and even there it was clear he was making some rather insane tight window throws (especially to Goedert) and having the best passing game of his career when the team needed it because the defense and running game were non-existent. After that game, there was real hope that he had broken through, and the Eagles gave him an extension and locked him up believing there was more to come.

Going into 2023, we lose Shane and replace him with Brian Johnson, and clearly the new emphasis was on making us more of a passing team. While Swift eventually emerged, remember we went into week 1 with Gainwell as RB1. So the offense was now geared more to treating Hurts like the guy from the Super Bowl. Then he hurts his leg, so the running disappears from his game as well. I also think the contract put a ton of pressure on him, as well as the Super Bowl hangover (have been told the whole team was basically angry and bitter, feeling they got screwed by the refs and the field). Jalen went from attempting ~30.6 passes per game in 2022 to 32.6 per game in 2023 (removing the final Giants game), but his YPA went from 8.0 in 2022 to 7.2 in 2023. We were throwing more, but less effectively, and he was throwing picks. The takeaway -- the Super Bowl was his apex, not a reflection of his sustainable level.

Howie brings in Saquon for 2024 -- I think a HUUUUUUUUUGE reason for this was they wanted someone to help close out games in the 4 minute offense, something Swift was terrible at (think about how many times we failed in 2023 at this). Swift got what was blocked, but not much more. He also had a habit of bouncing runs looking for the homerun as opposed to being a grinder. I think the goal for 2024 was to get to a version of 2022 with a homerun back. Combined with a healthier Hurts, the read option game would allow Hurts and Barkley to help each other reach a new level as a runner. That has worked -- Barkley is having a historic year, and Jalen's runs and scrambles are MUCH better this year. 

However, through the 1st 4 games, Hurts was still trying to be the guy from the Super Bowl, letting it rip into tight windows. And he threw 4 picks, fumbled, and was costing the team with his turnovers. It is pretty clear that over the bye week, Nick and Kellen told him to dial it back, take fewer chances and protect the ball. And while he has done that, he has overcorrected and become too cautious. Now, the perplexing part is he was throwing the ball down the field up until the Washington game. It's like the pick in Dallas scared him and made him super cautious again. 

All in all, if we get the guy from week 5 - 9, we are going to be very hard to beat. This offense needs to combine a power running attack with vertical passing, not calling a bunch of underneath stuff. It plays to Jalen and the receivers' strengths to take more down field shots. The question is can Nick and Kellen convince Jalen to start letting it fly again? I think/hope the answer is yes. 

Honestly, the illusion of his Super Bowl performance created unrealistic expectations among fans, the media and even the FO for a bit. Jalen is what he is -- a unique player whose rushing threat is valuable to help the overall running attack, and a good vertical passer. He's not a guy who will thrive in a system with a bunch of underneath, option routes based on timing. I see him as a less talented, harder working version of McNabb who is willing to keep running the ball. We can win with that. 

 

I agree, good post.

On one hand, Jalen is a 5th year QB who should be used to the NFL and adjusting to new offenses and terminology by now. I would like him to be more confident in himself and do better. On the other hand, I get the sense from hearing him talk over the years that as a coach's son he's used to trying to do what he's coached to do. I think he is is over thinking his decisions after the snap. He's more hesitant, even about running. Also some athletes get in slumps they have to mentally get out of.

That's why I think the coaches need to do whatever they need to this week to get Hurts out of his head. Once they play the Giants and Cowboys again they might even want to pass more once they have a lead to try and get him back some confidence. Just don't risk a loss by trying to pass too much or force it to AJ. Let Barkley eat and sprinkle in some passes to get a lead and then get some confidence-building throws.

  • Author
1 hour ago, mikemack8 said:

Some butthurt Buckeyes fan state rep from Ohio wants to make it a felony if a team plants their flag at midfield after beating the overrated Buckeyes :roll: 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/42913316/flag-planting-ohio-state-felony-proposed-law

image-15.png

4 hours ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

This is objectively a problem that needs to be dealt with. 

 

Hater 

9 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

 

Replay assist for face masks would be an improvement. 👍

24 minutes ago, Ace Nova said:

Do you mean the last 2 games?

He's had some concerning issues beyond just the last two games, though. 

  • Author
9 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

 

I have been on the facemask review for years.  It's both objective and meaningful to the game's outcome.

11 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

 

Dynamic one posession play

  • Author
15 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Who doesn't like some dome on football Sunday?

As long as it has curtains, I'm good.

1 minute ago, Swoop said:

He's had some concerning issues beyond just the last two games, though. 

No QB is perfect.  Even Mahomes has struggled at times this year.   (So has Allen in past years, Jackson, etc) 

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