Spike Eskin of course pushing the Eagles should trade AJ to the Patriots on the radio.

6 hours ago, ManuManu said:

 

 

6 hours ago, ManuManu said:

So Aaron Schatz of FO wrote about the curse of 370 carries. This was based on regular season totals, and not including the playoffs. Through Derrick Henry’s 2,000 yard season in 2020, 30 running backs had 370 or more carries — all but one had a decrease in production the following season.

Now you might say that’s understandable in Barkley’s case, given he had an all-time great season. I would agree. Regression is expected as his breakaway rate surely will go down. However, when looking at the list of 370-carry backs, they saw a decrease by about 40 percent in their production. Further, 21 of the 30 RBs missed time with injuries. However, it wasn’t just total yards, their efficiency declined as well. 

Several of the RBs on your list appear more than once, and in three of the four cases the older age had more touches.

Great move Jerry!

6 hours ago, NYEagle said:

Honestly...the Eagles are probably going to have to pivot a bit on offense becoming more pass heavy....especially to start games.  You know teams are going to stack the box to stop Barkley, no need trying to run him into a wall.  Come out play action, try and get on top of teams, then run Barkley.  Just my 2 cents.

Sounds like the Super Bowl game plan.

2 minutes ago, RememberTheKoy said:

Spike Eskin of course pushing the Eagles should trade AJ to the Patriots on the radio.

Listening to WIP is bad for your health

2 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Great move Jerry!

Get ready for a Micah Parsons extension coming in soon

6 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

What's the difference? He can say whatever he wants, he's not going to take less. 

I'll drop it when he signs some massive contract

6 minutes ago, garingovt2000 said:

Get ready for a Micah Parsons extension coming in soon

A Micah extension would likely lower his 2025 cap number of $24 million if structured properly (low salary, big signing bonus).

1 minute ago, vikas83 said:

A Micah extension would likely lower his 2025 cap number of $24 million if structured properly (low salary, big signing bonus).

That "if" is doing A LOT of heavy lifting with that franchise 

2 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

That "if" is doing A LOT of heavy lifting with that franchise 

LOL - fair enough. They did structure Dak's extension that way in the first year, and then massive salaries. And they just converted the 2025 salary to free up space.

2 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

That "if" is doing A LOT of heavy lifting with that franchise 

And the Cowboys could be Super Bowl champs IF the Super Bowl ever happened in October.

 

19 minutes ago, mattwill said:

You are applying single variant logic to a multi variant situation.

To start with you shouldn’t use touches, but rather hits. Look at the video of some of Saquon’s blitz pickup blocks.  They are more violent than most of his tackles.

Also your point about playoffs touches is a good one, but it doesn’t only apply to Saquon.  It applies to all the RBs on the list.  If you count Playoff touches/hits for one you count it for all.

Finally, the number of touches/hits per game needs to be considered.

There are other variants, but just those few make my point.

Barkley probably has more playoff touches than all those other players too because he played in four playoff games. Obviously I didn’t count them for the others because I didn’t care to look them up. Be my guest though. 

1 hour ago, SkippyX said:

Tom Brady never once in his sad career was able to duplicate his 50 TD 117 passer rating season. Aaron Schatz could write about it. Oh, he did have the best QB career in NFL history from age 30+ after that, went to 9 more Championship games, 6 more SBs, and won 4 of them.  But he did not get the 50 TDs again, what a tragedy.

Jerry Rice never once was able to duplicate his 22 TD season.

Reggie White was never able to duplicate his 21 1/2 sack season. He regressed to 18 the next year and never got above 15 again.

Aaron Donald was never able to duplicate his 20 1/2 sack season in 2018.

Dickerson was never able to duplicate his 2k season. He fell on hard times and only averaged 1703 and 12 rushing over the next 5 years.

 

Jerry Rice led the league in receiving yards from 1993 to 1995. In the next 30 years only Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson were able to lead the league in yards 2 years in a row. Add in Julio Jones and Marvin Harrison and they are the only 4 to lead the league in 2 different seasons in the last 30 years. The NFL is not a just do exactly what you did last year league. Schedules are different, rosters are different, etc.

 

Check out Tomlinson's career. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TomlLa00.htm

6 straight years of 390+ touches with no significant drop off. 370 the next year was just as good. In his 8th year he 'fell' to 1536 total yards and 12 TDs.

People like to use Priest Holmes and Terrell Davis as breakdown examples while ignoring that their usage and dominance lasted 3 years.

Homes had 389, 383, and 394 touches.

Davis had 381, 411, 417

Tiki Barber's last 3 years might be a better comp for the touches and low abuse level that Saquon sees. Tiki walked away healthy.

 

I would guestimate that 95% of the samples in that study were the backs who got murdered on 3rd and 1 and 1 yard line TD plunges and 4th and 1. Hurts does that in Philly so Saquon takes way less abuse than a Priest Holmes or a Terrell Davis.

I have no idea why you’re even mentioning non-RBs. This entire discussion is literally about the RB position. Also, compare all those RBs’ ages to Barkley’s. He’s older than all of the players listed on that chart I provided. Barkley also had about 470 or so touches. 

26 minutes ago, mattwill said:

 

Several of the RBs on your list appear more than once, and in three of the four cases the older age had more touches.

How many of them were Barkley’s age today?

27 minutes ago, mattwill said:

 

Several of the RBs on your list appear more than once, and in three of the four cases the older age had more touches.

And none consecutively…

because they get hurt

BOOM

3 yrs / $51m for Baun. Howie got it done

was just coming to post that. 3/51 is higher than I thought, but 34 guaranteed makes sense. Guessing it is really a 2 year deal for 34mm.

2 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

BOOM

ZACK BAUN!!!!

Going back to back.

Just now, vikas83 said:

was just coming to post that. 3/51 is higher than I thought, but 34 guaranteed makes sense. Guessing it is really a 2 year deal for 34mm.

Yeah, will have an out after 2, with the last year an option to extend for the same AAV

1 hour ago, just relax said:

That sounds logical, but remember what Tampa did to them in the SB. Free rushes on Mahomes from both turnstiles, er, tackles.

Also, the rush plan was to close up the gaps for Mahomes to escape through the pocket.  I think they wanted to collapse the edges and have Mahome step up into the DT's.  So I am not sure the interior being fixed would have changed the outcome.  

It'd be icing on the cake if he can bring Becton back too

36 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Great move Jerry!

Guarantees they can’t move him until 2027. They restructure him once more, it’ll be rough just getting through this deal. Another extension would be advisable

remember they still have a ton of dead money rolling over from the last contract