1 hour ago, eagle45 said:

I think a lot of the 2025 season will be determined by Barkley, Ringo, Nolan Smith, and Jordan Davis.

Can Barkley replicate that?  Can he do it with a more normal RG?

Can Ringo play at (old) Slay’s level?

Can Jordan Davis fulfill his potential and be a full time player?

Can Nolan Smith routinely be the player he was down the stretch last year?

If we have positive answers to these questions, the Eagles are going to be every bit as good as last year.  (I realize we are making changes elsewhere too…but I think it’s actually less important).  If we have negative answers, they will fall off hard.

And that really depends on who we already have in house.  So why spend money and resources on band aids if the onus is really on the guys that are already here?
 

There's virtually no way that Barkley can replicate what he just did.  No RB that ever had a season like that was ever able to match it, or really even come close. 

OJ Simpson dropped from 6.0 ypc to 4.2 ypc.  Still led the NFL in carries, but dropped to 1100+ yards rushing.
Eric Dickerson dropped from 5.6 ypc to 4.2 ypc.   He dropped to just over 1200 yards.  He rebounded the following year with 400 carries and 1800+ yards though.
Barry Sanders dropped from 6.1 ypc to 4.3 ypc.   Just under 1500 yards, and retired the next offseason.
Terrell Davis only played 4 games the following year.
Jamal Lewis dropped to 12 games played and barely crossed 1000 yards.  5.3 ypc to 4.3 ypc.
Chris Johnson dropped from 5.6 ypc to 4.3 ypc... just over 1300 yards, and it never passed 1300 yards again.
Adrian Peterson dropped from 6.0 to 4.5 ypc.  He crossed 1400 yards once three years later and then was a shell of himself after that.
Derrick Henry only played 8 games the following year.  Then rebounded very well... hitting 1500+ yards two years later, a down year of only 1167 on a terrible Titans team, then nearly hit 2000 yards himself this past year (1921).

 

Long story short... they all drop off the next year.   If Barkley gets used less, he might be able to maintain a YPC average greater than 4.5 and that would be a 'success', as long as he's fresh and available in the post-season.  The more frequent results show a drop to about 4.2 ypc AND/OR missing at least 4 games due to injury.  Most of them approached, but did not cross 300 carries the following year.

 

I think Barkley is a unicorn, that played with a unicorn OL.  I think that unicorn OL is pretty much intact, as long as they stay healthy.   And if both the OL and Barkley can manage to stay healthy... 1500 yards rushing is possible, which is all I was expecting last year, and puts him on par with Sanders.  1500 yards on less than 300 carries would put him over 5.0 ypc, and would be an excellent season and still be a bargain price for that level of production.  No WR putting up 1500 yards of production gets paid less than he is getting.
 

Consider this.... by the measure overthecap uses for 'average' cost for players... look at the WRs making his 'average' or more.  How many of them produce what he produces?

Just now, greendestiny27 said:

No i'm not saying he would be a guaranteed starter, i'm not fixated on either being one right noe. They need quality players at that position however and Ojulari makes some sense if the price is right. 

The challenge these days is there are so few practice reps to go around that you can only try so many guys.  If a FA struggles to learn system early he's at the bottom without many opportunities to get back up

36 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Don't count on it.   The trade would need to take place between June 1 and when the option bonus is due for it to really be a helpful trade from a cap perspective.  And, as a result, would really force the trade to be about 2026 draft picks, not 2025.

Howie’s arsenal of 2026 Draft picks is significant as shown in the table below. As a result it really doesn’t matter whether the Goedert pick is in 2025 or 2026.  If it is in 2026 and Howie needs/wants another 2025 pick he will simply trade a 2026 pick for a 2025 pick.  Borrowing from the future on Draft Day and replenishing the future with the Goedert trade.

3 minutes ago, pgcd3 said:

One other point I think the law of averages is working against Howie.  Sure he is good but you don't hit that many draft picks without an eventual regression. Same with 1-yr deals tho he did have misses with those

100%

But having more picks / lots of cheap veterans help the odds even as his hit rate decreases.

2 minutes ago, pgcd3 said:

The challenge these days is there are so few practice reps to go around that you can only try so many guys.  If a FA struggles to learn system early he's at the bottom without many opportunities to get back up

Really good point.

1 hour ago, greendestiny27 said:

I'd definitely take Ojulari but not for anything more than 14, 15 mil. Even that seems a bit high at this stage. Howie did make a point to say things will look differently this year and moves can be made later on. I wonder if there's some significant moves after June 1st. 

That would be a massive overpay for him, IMO.  That's about what Huff got (slightly less), but Huff at least had a double digit sack year to his resume.  Ojulari topped out at 8 his rookie year and hasn't matched it once.  Nor has he played more than 11 games in a year since.   His deal should be much more incentive based and lower total and guaranteed money.   Maybe a 1 year prove-it deal with escalators for performance.

7 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

He had a minor injury that year but I remember him getting benched and Doug saying it was just because Opeta was better. Opeta then hurt his back and got put on IR so Herbig took the starting job back.

I don't remember Herbig being a disaster considering he was a second year UDFA and coming in after 2 injuries. But point taken. Definitely our worst RG year in the past 5 seasons. But still it's pretty good. 

23 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

2020 was a disaster. Brooks tore his Achilles in June. Herbig got benched for Opeta. Opeta went to IR so Herbig had to play again. At some point in there Jamon Brown had to start a couple games who then got thrown off the team for bringing a hood rat to the team hotel. 

Craziest RG season in 30 years!

22 minutes ago, wussbasket said:

And Ojulari is? Hunt has far more potential than Ojulari and the coaching staff is going to focus on the development of Hunt. Again, it goes back to my original question if Ojulari would come here to be a backup. He's certainly not going to be given the starting job, and it certainly isn't going to be an easy competition. You have to remember, Hunt didn't even know how to get in a proper stance in preseason.

 

Rather than 'backup', the term 'rotational pass rusher' should be used.   Far more easy to sell.     

6 minutes ago, pgcd3 said:

One other point I think the law of averages is working against Howie.  Sure he is good but you don't hit that many draft picks without an eventual regression. Same with 1-yr deals tho he did have misses with those

 

2 minutes ago, RLC said:

100%

But having more picks / lots of cheap veterans help the odds even as his hit rate decreases.

I respectfully disagree with you guys on this.  The law of averages applies to random situations, but the Draft is not random.  That doesn’t mean it doesn’t have a fair share of randomness, but there is a whole lot of input and homework and judgment that takes most of the randomness out for the Eagles.  In addition there is learning.  I firmly believe that 2025 Howie would pick Jefferson and wouldn’t pick Davion.  In addition the presence of old souls like Fangio and Stoutland act as governors as well.  Both of them know exactly (almost) what they want in a player and they aren’t bashful in letting Howie and Nick know.

Finally, and this is where luck plays a role, this Draft class happens to be both strong and deep in the positions where the Eagles’ resources need to be shored up.  So, the chances of a deviation from the recent successful picks history is reduced.

JMO

23 minutes ago, pgcd3 said:

One other point I think the law of averages is working against Howie.  Sure he is good but you don't hit that many draft picks without an eventual regression. Same with 1-yr deals tho he did have misses with those

He definitely missed with some free agents last year.   Hennessey was a miss.  White was a miss.   Huff was a HUGE miss.   Plus, he likes to take flyers on a bunch of 1 year deals for minimal money....  PJ Mustipher, Albert O, Tyrion Davis-Price., Julian Okwara, Tyler Hall, Will Grier, John Ross, Max Sharping, Parry Nickerson.

 

A lot of the guys they are bringing in right now are mostly long shots with minimal upside.  The ones that have any type of significant cost, even small, have a little bit of a track record that could provide... something.

 

But, the roll he's been on regarding draft picks... that's going to be hard to replicate again.  But, so far, he's done it so maybe there's been some sort of cheat code unlocked!  (Or maybe our coaches are just doing a much better job at developing the talent than previous years!) 

22 minutes ago, mattwill said:

Howie’s arsenal of 2026 Draft picks is significant as shown in the table below. As a result it really doesn’t matter whether the Goedert pick is in 2025 or 2026.  If it is in 2026 and Howie needs/wants another 2025 pick he will simply trade a 2026 pick for a 2025 pick.  Borrowing from the future on Draft Day and replenishing the future with the Goedert trade.

That's definitely a possibility.   But this current draft doesn't really seem like the year to invest heavily.  For the right guy though... it might be the best plan.   Any trade ups this year will likely involve future picks and/or one or more of the bevy of current 5th rounders they hold in this year's draft.

That 3 from the Jets is almost assuredly a top 75 pick... maybe even top 70.

19 minutes ago, DEagle7 said:

I don't remember Herbig being a disaster considering he was a second year UDFA and coming in after 2 injuries. But point taken. Definitely our worst RG year in the past 5 seasons. But still it's pretty good. 

I meant the RG situation in totality was a disaster. Herbig getting benched caught some side eye for Doug because he didn’t seem awful but coaches must have not liked something.

And to be fair there was a lot more wrong with that season than just RG. Lane only played 7 games and other spots on the line were a mess too. I’m not worried about Steen having to start but I think they do need to address the depth. Plenty of time with the draft and other wandering vets though.

Big signing 

24 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Terrell Davis only played 4 games the following year.

True, but his 2,000 yard season followed a 1,700 yard season with comparable touches per game.  I’m not saying I expect 2,000 yards again, especially since it looks like Howie and Stoutland are going to be moving toward more of a committee approach to manage the wear and tear on Saquon, but I fully expect the quality of his productivity in 2025 to be comparable to 2024, even if the quantity of that productivity is less.

With that said, I expect the team to rush for more than 3,048 yards.

JMO

9 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

He definitely missed with some free agents last year.   Hennessey was a miss.  White was a miss.   Huff was a HUGE miss.   Plus, he likes to take flyers on a bunch of 1 year deals for minimal money....  PJ Mustipher, Albert O, Tyrion Davis-Price., Julian Okwara, Tyler Hall, Will Grier, John Ross, Max Sharping, Parry Nickerson.

 

A lot of the guys they are bringing in right now are mostly long shots with minimal upside.  The ones that have any type of significant cost, even small, have a little bit of a track record that could provide... something.

 

But, the roll he's been on regarding draft picks... that's going to be hard to replicate again.  But, so far, he's done it so maybe there's been some sort of cheat code unlocked!  (Or maybe our coaches are just doing a much better job at developing the talent than previous years!) 

Devante Parker. That was a fun two months. 

35 minutes ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

Burks wasn't going to stick around with the likelihood of becoming Dean's backup again.  He was looking for a legit opportunity to be a starter elsewhere.

 

Dean likely will not be 100% to start the season, (or might not recover to 100% for a while knowing how tricky patellar tendon recoveries are.) Burks had as much of a chance here with Dean still on the mend as he does in Cincy.

1 minute ago, pgcd3 said:

Big signing 

I love the two second rush of reading the commentary while waiting for the tweet to load to get let down again 

1 minute ago, pgcd3 said:

Big signing 

Big "assistant to the regional manager" energy

5 minutes ago, RLC said:

Big "assistant to the regional manager" energy

 

4 hours ago, eagle45 said:

I have two disappointments/concerns here.

1.  We all know how this offense functions.  Steen is going to be pretty good, but removing an absurdly dominant force in the running I game at RG, giving way to a merely good RG…that might be a negligible downgrade for a normal offense.  But for an offense built around a RB going for 2,000 yards and throwing 15 times per game?  That could be an issue.

2. Maybe he never could have done it and it was never going to happen, but I had hopes that Becton could eventually slight out to RT for Lane.  Now that it definitely isn’t happening, in all likelihood, they are going to burn a first round pick on a RT in the next 2 years.  Would have been nice to keep that in the pocket and use it elsewhere.

Yup— that was exactly my read of it.

People don’t want to hear this, but Becton was the most important run blocker we had. Everyone was good last season, of course, but Becton’s ability to erase players at the second level was quite literally game changing. Steen is not that guy and never will be. Our running attack was already unlikely to repeat its performance, but between losing Becton, natural regression to the mean, and Barkley likely missing games with injury, Hurts Brown and Smith are really going to need to step up in my view.

And yeah, Becton was at least a legitimate option to take over for LJ whenever that happens.

30 minutes ago, mattwill said:

 

I respectfully disagree with you guys on this.  The law of averages applies to random situations, but the Draft is not random.  That doesn’t mean it doesn’t have a fair share of randomness, but there is a whole lot of input and homework and judgment that takes most of the randomness out for the Eagles.  In addition there is learning.  I firmly believe that 2025 Howie would pick Jefferson and wouldn’t pick Davion.  In addition the presence of old souls like Fangio and Stoutland act as governors as well.  Both of them know exactly (almost) what they want in a player and they aren’t bashful in letting Howie and Nick know.

Finally, and this is where luck plays a role, this Draft class happens to be both strong and deep in the positions where the Eagles’ resources need to be shored up.  So, the chances of a deviation from the recent successful picks history is reduced.

JMO

The Eagles’ focus has shifted a LOT since 2017. The most remarkable change has been an emphasis on athleticism and freakish traits. We never used to go for best athlete available type picks. That has largely changed, and we are seeing the results.

Add good coaching and franchise stability, and this is what you get.

6 minutes ago, TEW said:

Yup— that was exactly my read of it.

People don’t want to hear this, but Becton was the most important run blocker we had. Everyone was good last season, of course, but Becton’s ability to erase players at the second level was quite literally game changing. Steen is not that guy and never will be. Our running attack was already unlikely to repeat its performance, but between losing Becton, natural regression to the mean, and Barkley likely missing games with injury, Hurts Brown and Smith are really going to need to step up in my view.

And yeah, Becton was at least a legitimate option to take over for LJ whenever that happens.

Baldy pointed this out a few times about The Big Ticket.  Just wiped out the linebacker.

Knee issues must have been real with Becton. Most of the iOL guys who got paid more can’t carry his jock.