8 hours ago, mattwill said:

There are rather sophisticated gaming programs that can help you to scientifically/mathematically optimize the value yield of your decision … most frequently used in optimizing stock trading decisions.  However, the Draft is just as much Art as it is Science.  Value is highly subjective.  So your Arnold vs. Mitchell decision really does boil down to an educated guess.  

The complicating factor is that unless you either trade down one spot, or you know the team you are trading with has a specific player in mind, then you risk losing both Arnold and Mitchell.  So if the only players on your Board are in the same position, I agree either way you … pull the trigger.  However, more often than not your Board is larger than two players and the number of positions is more than one.  For example if the Board has Walter Nolen. Donovan Ezeiruaku and Malaki Starks then the risks associated with trading down are significantly mitigated.

Sure.  And you get the leftovers rather than your preference.  I want the pick of the litter, not the runt no one else wanted.

8 hours ago, HazletonEagle said:

When you watch that and listen to them talk about Cam'ron Jackson it really makes you question- do you take this guy in round 4 on a 4th round rookie contract and play him 20 snaps a game on run downs and be thrilled with that production? Or do you pay Jordan Davis 13M a year and play him 20 snaps a game and get run down production and feel you are overpaying a guy who hasnt quite lived up to his pick 13 trade up cost. 

There’s a bit of glass half empty and half full here. JD provides run proficiency now but there’s doubt that he’ll reach his ceiling as a 3-down player. While there’s confidence that CJ can rise to JD’s current level, but when? The FO met with CJ, so it is certainly a contingency and we’ve carried multiple NTs in 2022 despite the strain on the roster. I figure that Howie would prefer to extend JD over multiple years to avoid a Goedert-like lump in 2026, but if this isn’t done CJ might be drafted regardless of whether the club option is applied as he’ll need some time to develop (and we might not be able to afford JD once he hits FA).

As a purely hypothetical.

With the relative lack of superstars and more good starter players in the draft, I can see a situation where Howie may look to take draft picks in 2027 to trade down over more picks next year or trading up if the top of the draft goes off in a way no one predicted. I'm assuming that they've done preliminary work on players already so will have a level of comfort of who will be available and where strengths will be. 

It will definitely help with managing the roster and the big contracts that will be flying about by leveraging picks now for 2 years time and focus again on rookies and trades.  If you can get an extra 2nd or 3rd to parlay in 2027 and get the player you want, why not?

I don't think that will happen as we know Howie loves to trade up.

11 minutes ago, UK Eagle said:

As a purely hypothetical.

With the relative lack of superstars and more good starter players in the draft, I can see a situation where Howie may look to take draft picks in 2027 to trade down over more picks next year or trading up if the top of the draft goes off in a way no one predicted. I'm assuming that they've done preliminary work on players already so will have a level of comfort of who will be available and where strengths will be. 

It will definitely help with managing the roster and the big contracts that will be flying about by leveraging picks now for 2 years time and focus again on rookies and trades.  If you can get an extra 2nd or 3rd to parlay in 2027 and get the player you want, why not?

I don't think that will happen as we know Howie loves to trade up.

If Howie gets a particularly good deal on 2027 picks, I think he’d jump (as he can take the long view while many GMs are trying to stay employed for another year); that said, this draft is fine if you aren’t picking in the top-20. Conversely, perhaps we get a tradeup discount using 2026 picks?

4 minutes ago, Waiting4Someday said:

If Howie gets a particularly good deal on 2027 picks, I think he’d jump (as he can take the long view while many GMs are trying to stay employed for another year); that said, this draft is fine if you aren’t picking in the top-20. Conversely, perhaps we get a tradeup discount using 2026 picks?

The Reddick deal with the Jets keeps popping into my head.  It was an outlier, but with so many picks next year, I suppose we could see a dual one where picks next year are traded. but he looks to get picks in 2027 to keep the process going. I guess my point is, Howie will see some chances to do business with that first, but it may not be upwards or for picks this year.  

1 hour ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Sure.  And you get the leftovers rather than your preference.  I want the pick of the litter, not the runt no one else wanted.

Jefferson , Aiyuk  and Higgens were the 5th, 6th, and 7th WRs taken in 2020. Pretty good "leftovers."

28 minutes ago, UK Eagle said:

As a purely hypothetical.

With the relative lack of superstars and more good starter players in the draft, I can see a situation where Howie may look to take draft picks in 2027 to trade down over more picks next year or trading up if the top of the draft goes off in a way no one predicted. I'm assuming that they've done preliminary work on players already so will have a level of comfort of who will be available and where strengths will be. 

It will definitely help with managing the roster and the big contracts that will be flying about by leveraging picks now for 2 years time and focus again on rookies and trades.  If you can get an extra 2nd or 3rd to parlay in 2027 and get the player you want, why not?

I don't think that will happen as we know Howie loves to trade up.

We have no way of knowing how many "superstars" a draft has until many years later. Nobody viewed Tom Brady or Jason Kelce as legitimate candidates to ever even develop into starters in the NFL. Even Mahomes surpassed general expectations despite being a 1st round pick ... and compare that to Trey Lance who had an even higher "grade" when he came out. 

Never confuse hype with reality. Analysts are making predictions and generalizing those regarding this draft class. Even "floors and ceilings" are 100% pretense. They aren't something actually measurable and are just a cliche used in place of expectations. If you just look at our 2020 draft, Reagor fell through his floor and Hurts broke through his ceiling. 

21 minutes ago, brkmsn said:

Jefferson , Aiyuk  and Higgens were the 5th, 6th, and 7th WRs taken in 2020. Pretty good "leftovers."

Oh, I know all about Jefferson.   But, they weren't looking for a "WR", they were looking for a "speed" guy.  And they were wrong.   

But, the 'leftovers' argument is more about Marcus Smith II.  

8 hours ago, HazletonEagle said:

Scourton is only turning 20 on draft night. 

I was just thinking about an hour ago- in the years of these covid extra years of eligibility, how much have the eagles drafted a player who is 23 years old or older? I dont know the answer, but I have a feeling its minimal, if not 0.

Watching this DL video on NFL Stock Exchange, I happened to notice Aaneas Peebles 23.6 years old. And they werent discussing age, and hes not the oldest prospect but it jumped out at me and made me wonder...

We know age often bumps down a grade. But I feel like the eagles have been avoiding it altogether.

Drafts have been full of these guys. And if that holds true it helps you really narrow down eagles targets or at least break ties between two similarly ranked players. 

Ringo is younger than Mitchell and in his fourth year.  Blankenship was also in his fourth year, and is 26.  Not sure for DTs or OL that being a fifth or sixth year senior or even a person that did missionary work is that big of a deal.  NIL is going to increase the number of players staying longer in college.  I think both Ringo and Ojomo slipped because they were younger, perhaps.  I also think when age when coming to the draft is partly due to injury that has a factor in slipping a player. So 20 versus 23.6 might mean that 20 slips further than 23.6 does.  I think age at the rookie stage factors in whether the body has matured to manhood and whether the player is green. Other than rookies that are post 25, I don’t think it is much of a factor until they reach their second or third contract. 

10 minutes ago, brkmsn said:

We have no way of knowing how many "superstars" a draft has until many years later. Nobody viewed Tom Brady or Jason Kelce as legitimate candidates to ever even develop into starters in the NFL. Even Mahomes surpassed general expectations despite being a 1st round pick ... and compare that to Trey Lance who had an even higher "grade" when he came out. 

Never confuse hype with reality. Analysts are making predictions and generalizing those regarding this draft class. Even "floors and ceilings" are 100% pretense. They aren't something actually measurable and are just a cliche used in place of expectations. If you just look at our 2020 draft, Reagor fell through his floor and Hurts broke through his ceiling. 

I'm more looking at the depth at 32 vs top 10, and perhaps where there will be holes to pick at, should Howie wish to do some things.  The team isn't need of selecting X or Y player (unlike last year where CB was a big need), so perhaps they can fulfill goals where perhaps they will need to potentially go up for an OT at some point and take players for the now.  I can see a QB falling enough where a team will want them on day 1 for the 5th year, etc

2 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Sure.  And you get the leftovers rather than your preference.  I want the pick of the litter, not the runt no one else wanted.

Some great players are "runts” because they start in prove it mold and maintain that throughout their career.  That doesn’t apply to just sports athletes. I saw that apply in all sorts of professions throughout my life.  Now try hard isn’t the same as prove it and neither overcome all physical and mental limitations, but that level of self determination can be pretty great.  Jason Kelce comes to mind.  

19 minutes ago, BigEFly said:

Ringo is younger than Mitchell and in his fourth year.  Blankenship was also in his fourth year, and is 26.  Not sure for DTs or OL that being a fifth or sixth year senior or even a person that did missionary work is that big of a deal.  NIL is going to increase the number of players staying longer in college.  I think both Ringo and Ojomo slipped because they were younger, perhaps.  I also think when age when coming to the draft is partly due to injury that has a factor in slipping a player. So 20 versus 23.6 might mean that 20 slips further than 23.6 does.  I think age at the rookie stage factors in whether the body has matured to manhood and whether the player is green. Other than rookies that are post 25, I don’t think it is much of a factor until they reach their second or third contract. 

Still,  I wonder if the Eagles actively avoid those players who are older. Of course,  I'm too lazy to look up draft ages of all their picks from the last few years. 

15 minutes ago, BigEFly said:

Some great players are "runts” because they start in prove it mold and maintain that throughout their career.  That doesn’t apply to just sports athletes. I saw that apply in all sorts of professions throughout my life.  Now try hard isn’t the same as prove it and neither overcome all physical and mental limitations, but that level of self determination can be pretty great.  Jason Kelce comes to mind.  

And sometimes the runts are just the dregs at the bottom of the cup... and won't ever amount to anything.    The point is... when you have your pick of the litter, you get to choose which one you want.  When you trade back, you lose out on certain options... that can be good, or that can be bad.  The odds go down the further back you trade, which is why it costs so much to trade up.   

All I am saying is... with the roster constructed as it is right now, and with the number of picks the team has this year and next, I'd rather not gamble as much and take the player of the group that the team believes in the most, rather than trade down and risk losing out on that guy.  Holding #32 gives you a little leverage in getting a bit more for the cost of the trade, but is losing out on 5 or 6 options (however far you end up trading back) worth the risk?  At this moment, I don't think it is.  In 2018, they were in this same position and traded back to the middle of Round 2 - back 20 spots, and all they really got in return was a middle of the 2nd round pick the following year for that.  That's not enough return on that risk for me.  It turned out pretty well for the Eagles that time, they got Dallas Goedert and Miles Sanders.  Neither a true superstar, but not a bad showing.  In the end, the only player that they really 'missed out on' between 32 and 52 that year was the guy the Ravens took at 32, Lamar Jackson.  I'd hold out for more if the situation arises again this year, or just grab the guy you want at 32.   (The Eagles' own 2nd round pick in 2019 was JJAW!  🤢. )

 

Trade backs are risky... they can really pay off... or they can really just leave the team with less overall talent.  When they traded back to get Marcus Smith, they didn't gain anything of value at all.  And a ton of studs went off the board from #9 to #17.  The Eagles sat at #22... traded back to #26 and missed on Dee Ford.  Then they tried to trade back again, but couldn't... and grabbed Smith... still missing scouting and missed out on Demarcus Lawrence.    Just a bad year all around... bad decision not to move up and get a stud a few slots earlier... bad decision not to stay at 22 and grab the next stud at 22 in Ford... and bad decision when trading back to not grab Demarcus Lawrence.   They did just about everything wrong.   And the other guy that got because of the trade back was Josh Huff.  .  

 

Fortunately, Howie has learned a lot since then and the recent history has been extremely good.  I'd just rather they didn't regress to the mean.  Stay aggressive and target your favorite players.  We have the ammunition to do it.

"For us, we have some objective things that I can't even overrule," Roseman said. "And they're ours, but for one like violence against women. It's just not for us. I won't even watch them. I don't even want to talk about them it's just a deal breaker for us so I can't go 'he's really good and did it 10 years ago and he learned from it.' It just doesn't work for us."

 

Smokescreen.  He's drafting Bond.  You get that value Howie!

We thinking Scourton is who we're targeting most now?

Hopefully not in the first round. That's a reach in my estimation. Has limited upside with athletic limitations and not enough production to warrant a pick at 32. If the guy had like 8-10 sacks a year for 4 years you'd go ok he may not be athletic, but he can be a Brandon Graham type. A technician who just knows how to play. He straddles the line where he's neither super productive nor an athletic freak. At 32 if you're going Edge, you gotta go more upside.

6 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

Hopefully not in the first round. That's a reach in my estimation. Has limited upside with athletic limitations and not enough production to warrant a pick at 32. If the guy had like 8-10 sacks a year for 4 years you'd go ok he may not be athletic, but he can be a Brandon Graham type. A technician who just knows how to play. He straddles the line where he's neither super productive nor an athletic freak. At 32 if you're going Edge, you gotta go more upside.

His productive 10 sack pass rushing year at purdue was as an 18 year old. He moved to a system where they dont rush the passer as much. Still had the most sacks on that d line. Hes still only 20 years old. 

I think I still prefer Ezeiruaku but Scourton is my 2nd choice out of our visits. And I can see the eagles feeling like they cant get another Scourton later, but they can get another rush LB later (like Oladejo maybe).

 

5 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

His productive 10 sack pass rushing year at purdue was as an 18 year old. He moved to a system where they dont rush the passer as much. Still had the most sacks on that d line. Hes still only 20 years old. 

I think I still prefer Ezeiruaku but Scourton is my 2nd choice out of our visits. And I can see the eagles feeling like they cant get another Scourton later, but they can get another rush LB later (like Oladejo maybe).

I don't even like Shemar Stewart but I'd prefer his upside over Scourton. Scourton just didn't impress me, I didn't like his get off and he doesn't look very fluid. I think I'd rather take Josaiah Stewart even in the 2nd or 3rd than Scourton in the first. If they took Scourton in the 2nd round I'd be ok with it, but definitely not at 32. Not when there will be other way higher upside guys going in that range. Whether it's Nolen, Pearce, Campbell. Even if a guy like Mykel Williams falls. I think I'd take Malaki Starks over Scourton too. Not an Edge, but I'm pretty certain he'll be a stud safety.

IMO walking out of round 1 with Scourton would be pretty underwhelming.

2 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

I don't even like Shemar Stewart but I'd prefer his upside over Scourton. Scourton just didn't impress me, I didn't like his get off and he doesn't look very fluid. I think I'd rather take Josaiah Stewart even in the 2nd or 3rd than Scourton in the first. If they took Scourton in the 2nd round I'd be ok with it, but definitely not at 32. Not when there will be other way higher upside guys going in that range. Whether it's Nolen, Pearce, Campbell. Even if a guy like Mykel Williams falls. I think I'd take Malaki Starks over Scourton too. Not an Edge, but I'm pretty certain he'll be a stud safety.

IMO walking out of round 1 with Scourton would be pretty underwhelming.

I think its a really tough argument to make that a guy who is just 20, and had 10 sacks in 11 games as an 18 year old does not have a lot of upside. 

3 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

I think its a really tough argument to make that a guy who is just 20, and had 10 sacks in 11 games as an 18 year old does not have a lot of upside. 

He didn't test well athletically. That's a position where you want athletes. He had a season where he had 10 sacks with Purdue but I'm not sure how he'll translate to the NFL level. He's not some bum, but I think when you take an Edge you want to gamble on athletic traits. Like the Eagles did with Hunt and Nolan Smith.

Just now, Sack that QB said:

He didn't test well athletically. That's a position where you want athletes. He had a season where he had 10 sacks with Purdue but I'm not sure how he'll translate to the NFL level. He's not some bum, but I think when you take an Edge you want to gamble on athletic traits. Like the Eagles did with Hunt and Nolan Smith.

Yeah. Often. And those guys are available later this year. Like I said, there will be some of those guys on the board later in this draft when Scourton is gone. 

Sometimes you have to trust the talent of the "no upside" guy. Guys like Karalaftis, turn out to be good players too. And theres nothing wrong with that kind of pick at 32 in this draft which is said to lack star power, and one draft "Expert" has only 13 1st round grades. 

Also, dont agree that Scourton has no upside. Remember the college season is shorter than the NFL season, and its very common to see the top pass rushers in draft classes having less than 10 sacks. Double digits is pretty tough to do. He did it as an 18 year old. Blue chip top 10 picks often arent doing that as juniors and seniors. He also only played for Purdue for 2 seasons. He hasnt had a lot of time to work on his rush. Hes already very effective with it. Wait till he gets a few years of coaching and experience. He will get even better.

1 hour ago, paco said:

"For us, we have some objective things that I can't even overrule," Roseman said. "And they're ours, but for one like violence against women. It's just not for us. I won't even watch them. I don't even want to talk about them it's just a deal breaker for us so I can't go 'he's really good and did it 10 years ago and he learned from it.' It just doesn't work for us."

 

Smokescreen.  He's drafting Bond.  You get that value Howie!

BUT... which one?!

etc...

2 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

Yeah. Often. And those guys are available later this year. Like I said, there will be some of those guys on the board later in this draft when Scourton is gone. 

Sometimes you have to trust the talent of the "no upside" guy. Guys like Karalaftis, turn out to be good players too. And theres nothing wrong with that kind of pick at 32 in this draft which is said to lack star power, and one draft "Expert" has only 13 1st round grades. 

Also, dont agree that Scourton has no upside. Remember the college season is shorter than the NFL season, and its very common to see the top pass rushers in draft classes having less than 10 sacks. Double digits is pretty tough to do. He did it as an 18 year old. Blue chip top 10 picks often arent doing that as juniors and seniors. He also only played for Purdue for 2 seasons. He hasnt had a lot of time to work on his rush. Hes already very effective with it. Wait till he gets a few years of coaching and experience. He will get even better.

I get why you have optimism for Scourton. What I don't get is why you'd want him over some of the other guys who could be available in that range. In a vacuum I'd take Scourton on the Eagles I think he could be a good player. I wouldn't want him over Pearce, Ezeiruaku, Nolen, Mykel Williams, Jihaad Campbell, Mike Green, Derrick Harmon, etc.

Maybe I haven't been following closely enough, but I've been surprised over the past week hearing draft pundits saying they project Kelvin Banks more as a guard than OT. But a lot still like him as OT. If he falls, I think Howie is going to be really tempted. Would be interesting if a guy like Walter Nolen and Kelvin Banks were there, which Howie would prefer.