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EMB Blog: 2025 Regular Season (Part 2) ... and Playoffs

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17 hours ago, Wentz_Era said:

Hurts had a major regression this year, I’m not going to argue your point here. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire. One of them is the issue and we don’t have an example of one without the other to lean on.

More likely it's that both are "the issue" in that they just don't fit together well schematically. It's probably something like they get along personality wise and have respect for each other, but the schematic part of the relationship isn't exactly there. It's not surprising.

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I'm actually fine with the #3 seed. If the #2 seed is attainable, great. If it relies on too many other factors and Siri decides to rest, I'm good with that. I just don't want rust, AND I want to see the offense functioning well this week. Here's a potential scenario:

  • Week 16: Commies: rest injured guys (Lane, Carter, etc.) do what you need to offensively to feel confident, win, claim division

  • Week 17: Bills: start the healthy remaining starters at first. If there's no seeding change to play for rest the starters at some point, treat it like a preseason game to keep them from getting rusty but rest them after a while.

  • Week 18 Final week vs Commies: rest all starters

Optimistic Super Bowl winning scenarios for the Eagles:

  • Host SF at home, win. At least that's better than the 2023 outcome if nothing else, and considering the struggles and injuries this year and how even SB winners have a hangover.

  • I really don't know how the rest of the NFC playoff games will go, they could go either way. But divisional round scenarios:

    • Eagles at Bears, Rams/Bucs at Seahawks. Or Packers at Seahawks, Rams/Bucs at Eagles. Either way, I like the Eagles chances because they'd be hosting the Rams or Bucs.

    • After last night I don't know about the Seahawks anymore, their defense could show up and win a game, but likely not.

  • NFCCG: either Eagles host the Rams, Bucs or Packers. Or by chance to go Seattle.

No path bothers me, even going to Seattle. Our defense will win that game for us. The defense will do its job against any of these teams. It's up to the offense to do its job.

Playoff bracket as of week 16.png

I get tired of the "who's to blame" conversation. The positive spin on this team is that what they say about themselves is true: they are a collaboration of input from all the coaches and taking input from players. They have proven to win and step up in big moments. They have also struggled and frustrated us plenty of times over the recent seasons. In the 2 recent SB seasons, there were questions and concerns about both the offense and defense at times and then they improved, played well at the end of the season. There were concerns and doubts based on injuries, losing to inferior opponents, Siri's game management decisions at times, Hurts up and down performances, O line, defensive issues, etc. And they overcame. 2023 is an outlier, mainly because of the defense being about the worst in the league with bad coaching. Fangio and upgraded roster made the defense a top among the league. The offense is capable, they have to get out of their own way and stop shooting themselves in the foot. The team that is most in the way of the Eagles success is the Eagles. When they're on, they can beat anybody.

Does anyone have the Blakeway Panoramas LIX Champions picture? I tried to find a more expensive one but that seems to be the best option. It's only a $50 print without the frame so I wonder how it looks on a wall?

921201194-1.jpg?tx=f_auto,c_fit,w_730,h_

1 hour ago, ToastJenkins said:

But then wouldnt Darnold have to be the one to recover it?

I am not sure I understand. Darnold should be charged with the fumble because he threw the ball. Because the ball touched the ball before Charbonnet touched it, Darnold fumbled the ball.

18 hours ago, Wentz_Era said:

Hurts had a major regression this year, I’m not going to argue your point here. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire. One of them is the issue and we don’t have an example of one without the other to lean on.

Hurts has his issues but I'd like to give him the benefit of the doubt and see him with the same coordinator for once instead of getting familiar with a new one every year for the past six years. That's unprecedented when you look at other QBs across the league.

Watching episode two of Hard Knocks. Them describing the Cowboys as "the hottest team in the NFL” and then immediately showing Dak being cocky about their chances is so funny, knowing that a few days later everyone was laughing at them again. 😂

1 hour ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Does it say if there is a difference between a normal play and a 2pt try? Because it being a 2pt try changes the rules around it. Wondering if that changes how it should be recorded too.

It doesn't make a distinction that I see.

2 hours ago, Mike030270 said:

Say the defense takes off again and carries us to another Lombardi. Where would you rank it?

Just some examples of great defenses over the decades not in any order

2000 Ravens

2015 Broncos

2002 Bucs

2013 Hawks

1962 Packers

1985 Bears

2023 49ers

Where’s the ‘91 Eagles ?

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1 hour ago, NOTW said:

I'm actually fine with the #3 seed. If the #2 seed is attainable, great. If it relies on too many other factors and Siri decides to rest, I'm good with that. I just don't want rust, AND I want to see the offense functioning well this week. Here's a potential scenario:

  • Week 16: Commies: rest injured guys (Lane, Carter, etc.) do what you need to offensively to feel confident, win, claim division

  • Week 17: Bills: start the healthy remaining starters at first. If there's no seeding change to play for rest the starters at some point, treat it like a preseason game to keep them from getting rusty but rest them after a while.

  • Week 18 Final week vs Commies: rest all starters

Optimistic Super Bowl winning scenarios for the Eagles:

  • Host SF at home, win. At least that's better than the 2023 outcome if nothing else, and considering the struggles and injuries this year and how even SB winners have a hangover.

  • I really don't know how the rest of the NFC playoff games will go, they could go either way. But divisional round scenarios:

    • Eagles at Bears, Rams/Bucs at Seahawks. Or Packers at Seahawks, Rams/Bucs at Eagles. Either way, I like the Eagles chances because they'd be hosting the Rams or Bucs.

    • After last night I don't know about the Seahawks anymore, their defense could show up and win a game, but likely not.

  • NFCCG: either Eagles host the Rams, Bucs or Packers. Or by chance to go Seattle.

No path bothers me, even going to Seattle. Our defense will win that game for us. The defense will do its job against any of these teams. It's up to the offense to do its job.

Playoff bracket as of week 16.png

If we win out, it's about a 50/50 chance given the other factors.

Basically, Chicago needs to lose twice and Green Bay once. They play each other Saturday night, so one of those loses is for sure. The quickest, and very real, scenario is GB over Chicago this weekend followed by Baltimore over GB and SF over Chicago week 17.

There is also the money involved. We are the only late window game for FOX week 17. Also, hosting the Divisional Round brings a lot of money to the city. I wouldn't doubt a few folks in darkened, smoke-filled rooms putting pressure on Lurie to play his guys week 17.

image.png

29 minutes ago, Casey @ Bat said:

Where’s the ‘91 Eagles ?

I was just listing some lol

@mattwill Eagles: 31 Commanders: 20

Bonus: S. Barkley 150 rushing & 1 TD

1 hour ago, NCiggles said:

I am not sure I understand. Darnold should be charged with the fumble because he threw the ball. Because the ball touched the ball before Charbonnet touched it, Darnold fumbled the ball.

It can't be a fumble though because then only Darnold would be able to advance it since it was a 2pt try. It's what the Holy Roller rule prevents. But because it was a backwards pass, it's technically not a fumble and an exception of the Holy Roller rule which is why Charbonnet could pick it up in the endzone. I think that's why they aren't crediting it as a fumble to anyone because if they do, it all falls apart.

8 minutes ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

If we win out, it's about a 50/50 chance given the other factors.

Basically, Chicago needs to lose twice and Green Bay once. They play each other Sunday night, so one of those loses is for sure. The quickest, and very real, scenario is GB over Chicago this weekend followed by Baltimore over GB and SF over Chicago week 17.

There is also the money involved. We are the only late window game for FOX week 17. Also, hosting the Divisional Round brings a lot of money to the city. I wouldn't doubt a few folks in darkened, smoke-filled rooms putting pressure on Lurie to play his guys week 17.

image.png

Yup

3 hours ago, Mike030270 said:

Agreed it was poor word choice. Basically where would you rank it if it wins us another SB

I’d put them near the top then…without the D we’d probably be in the hunt for a top 5 pick.

1 hour ago, BDawk_ASamuel said:

Hurts has his issues but I'd like to give him the benefit of the doubt and see him with the same coordinator for once instead of getting familiar with a new one every year for the past six years. That's unprecedented when you look at other QBs across the league.

Patullo was on the staff last year, ya it’s a new face but lets not pretend that he came in and reinvented the wheel.

3 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

It can't be a fumble though because then only Darnold would be able to advance it since it was a 2pt try. It's what the Holy Roller rule prevents. But because it was a backwards pass, it's technically not a fumble and an exception of the Holy Roller rule which is why Charbonnet could pick it up in the endzone. I think that's why they aren't crediting it as a fumble to anyone because if they do, it all falls apart.

I was only looking at the scoring from a stats standpoint. The rule application is different than the scoring of the fumble. I think there are 2 rules in play. The 2 minute rule and the Impetus Rule.

Article 6. Fumble After Two-Minute Warning

If a fumble by either team occurs after the two- minute warning or during a Try:

  1. The ball may be advanced by any opponent.

  2. The player who fumbled is the only player of his team who is permitted to recover and advance the ball.

  3. If the recovery or catch is by a teammate of the player who fumbled, the ball is dead, and the spot of the next snap is the spot of the fumble, or the spot of the recovery if the spot of the recovery is behind the spot of the fumble.

This is the Impetus Rule:

Section 16 - Impetus

Impetus is the action of a player who carries the ball or provides the force (i.e., a pass, kick, snap, or fumble) that causes a ball in the field of play to touch or cross a goal line. If a loose ball touches or crosses a goal line, the impetus is attributed to the team whose player passed, kicked, snapped, or fumbled the ball, unless an opponent:

  1. muffs a ball that is at rest, or nearly at rest;

  2. bats a ball that has been kicked or fumbled;

  3. bats a backward pass after it has struck the ground; or

  4. illegally kicks any ball (see 12-5-2).
    Note:

    1. A loose ball retains its original status (as a pass, kick, fumble, etc.) even if a new impetus is added.

    2. The impetus is always attributed to the offense, unless the defense creates a new force that sends the ball behind its own goal line by muffing a ball which is at rest or nearly at rest, or by batting a loose ball on the ground or kicking any loose ball.

    3. If a passive player is pushed or blocked into any kicked or fumbled ball or into a backward pass after it has struck the ground, causing the Loose Ball to touch a goal line or anything on or behind a goal line, the impetus is attributed to the pusher or blocker, provided that the pushed (blocked) player was not making an attempt to block an opponent.

Darnold is the only one on offense who can recover and advance the ball. He is not the only one who can recover the ball. I am guessing that because the Seattle player deflected the ball and it hit in the end zone. The spot goes to the point where the recovery occurred instead of the 2 minute rule.

43 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

It can't be a fumble though because then only Darnold would be able to advance it since it was a 2pt try. It's what the Holy Roller rule prevents. But because it was a backwards pass, it's technically not a fumble and an exception of the Holy Roller rule which is why Charbonnet could pick it up in the endzone. I think that's why they aren't crediting it as a fumble to anyone because if they do, it all falls apart.

Semantics. Is a lateral that is dropped credited as a fumble? The zebras got it wrong IMO.

20 hours ago, Wentz_Era said:

Hurts had a major regression this year, I’m not going to argue your point here. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire. One of them is the issue and we don’t have an example of one without the other to lean on.

Disagree

Hurts had the same issues last year as well. We saw it in the few 4 weeks of the season before the bi-week. What covered it up was the coaching staff changing the identify of this team to a dominate running game and sprinkle in Hurts here and there. Don't get me wrong, Hurts played an amazing Super Bowl but during the season he was having the same issues he does this year. It looks worse cause the run game is not working this year and the coaching staff was not changing it up to make Hurts look better then he is.

@mattwill

Eagles 24

Redskins 13

1 hour ago, NCiggles said:

I was only looking at the scoring from a stats standpoint. The rule application is different than the scoring of the fumble. I think there are 2 rules in play. The 2 minute rule and the Impetus Rule.

Article 6. Fumble After Two-Minute Warning

If a fumble by either team occurs after the two- minute warning or during a Try:

  1. The ball may be advanced by any opponent.

  2. The player who fumbled is the only player of his team who is permitted to recover and advance the ball.

  3. If the recovery or catch is by a teammate of the player who fumbled, the ball is dead, and the spot of the next snap is the spot of the fumble, or the spot of the recovery if the spot of the recovery is behind the spot of the fumble.

This is the Impetus Rule:

Section 16 - Impetus

Impetus is the action of a player who carries the ball or provides the force (i.e., a pass, kick, snap, or fumble) that causes a ball in the field of play to touch or cross a goal line. If a loose ball touches or crosses a goal line, the impetus is attributed to the team whose player passed, kicked, snapped, or fumbled the ball, unless an opponent:

  1. muffs a ball that is at rest, or nearly at rest;

  2. bats a ball that has been kicked or fumbled;

  3. bats a backward pass after it has struck the ground; or

  4. illegally kicks any ball (see 12-5-2).
    Note:

    1. A loose ball retains its original status (as a pass, kick, fumble, etc.) even if a new impetus is added.

    2. The impetus is always attributed to the offense, unless the defense creates a new force that sends the ball behind its own goal line by muffing a ball which is at rest or nearly at rest, or by batting a loose ball on the ground or kicking any loose ball.

    3. If a passive player is pushed or blocked into any kicked or fumbled ball or into a backward pass after it has struck the ground, causing the Loose Ball to touch a goal line or anything on or behind a goal line, the impetus is attributed to the pusher or blocker, provided that the pushed (blocked) player was not making an attempt to block an opponent.

Darnold is the only one on offense who can recover and advance the ball. He is not the only one who can recover the ball. I am guessing that because the Seattle player deflected the ball and it hit in the end zone. The spot goes to the point where the recovery occurred instead of the 2 minute rule.

35 minutes ago, mattwill said:

Semantics. Is a lateral that is dropped credited as a fumble? The zebras got it wrong IMO.

This is what I read that explained it pretty well

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/1pqdetw/explaining_the_2point_conversion_ruling_in_the/

4 minutes ago, DeathByEagle said:

Disagree

Hurts had the same issues last year as well. We saw it in the few 4 weeks of the season before the bi-week. What covered it up was the coaching staff changing the identify of this team to a dominate running game and sprinkle in Hurts here and there. Don't get me wrong, Hurts played an amazing Super Bowl but during the season he was having the same issues he does this year. It looks worse cause the run game is not working this year and the coaching staff was not changing it up to make Hurts look better then he is.

I agree with you overall here, but a couple things.

One: let's not pretend the Super Bowl is the only good game he played last year. His stats were actually better in the NFCCG where they scored 55 points. He had 1 pass TD and 3 rush TD in that game, whereas in the SB he had 2 pass TD, 1 rush TD and an INT. He also had some very good regular season games last year. He had the Steelers "is that what y'all wanted to see?" game with 290 yards, 2 pass TD, 1 rush TD and a 125.5 passer rating. Saints game he had his season high 311 pass yards, albeit no TDs and an INT. Opener in Brazil vs the Packers he had 278 yards, 2 pass TD, 2 INT. The Browns game was 264 yards, 2 TD. Now, before you or anyone would respond to that saying those aren't really great numbers compared to other passing QBs, I agree overall but we're talking about the context of a season that was heavily dominated by the run game and Barkley's historic season and they were winning by run game and defense (something Philly fans used to beg for) and they didn't need as much passing.

Second: since the high interception year of 2023 and the collapse, Siri has played it very conservative. He's talked a lot about the turnover factor in winning. Last year Hurts was taking sacks and more hesitant than in the past and it was apparent to many people that he was trying to overcorrect from interceptions. Then he started getting rid of the ball more instead of taking as many sacks. When he was passing more toward the end of the season in certain games he said they "took the straight jacket off." He said this season that he didn't like playing not to lose and alluded to the coaching being too conservative.

Hurts has had ups and downs in his career. He will never, ever be a top passer in the league. He's supposed to be a dual threat QB that will do just enough in the passing game while also keeping defenses on their toes with his running ability, which it seems he's slower in the last couple years and more hesitant. The offense needs to be built around his strengths including his running threat, and the type of throws he does well. We've seen many analysts including respected former players and coaches break down that Patullo's scheme is more vanilla than prior OCs, some even calling it a "high school offense." You can't blame Jalen Hurts for that when he's been proven to do more than that in offenses with Steichen and yes even Brian Johnson. I think it's a combination: Siri wanting conservative to avoid turnovers and rely on run game, Patullo never called plays before, Hurts has his limitations and needs the play calling to cater to his strengths (so does every QB btw), the O line was banged up and not performing like it did last year, the run game wasn't dominant most of the season like it was last year. Then there are other factors like receiver drops, bad field position from the return game, it was a lot of issues together and not all of them are on Hurts. They have taken a long time all season to sloooooowly correct issues like calling some better plays and running some better routes, getting the run game going. We're all very interested to see how they play tomorrow, they need another positive showing on offense to help ease our minds!

3 hours ago, Diehardfan said:

Does anyone have the Blakeway Panoramas LIX Champions picture? I tried to find a more expensive one but that seems to be the best option. It's only a $50 print without the frame so I wonder how it looks on a wall?

921201194-1.jpg?tx=f_auto,c_fit,w_730,h_

I have one in a frame but haven't put it up yet lol i can put it up this weekend and post a pic

3 hours ago, BDawk_ASamuel said:

Hurts has his issues but I'd like to give him the benefit of the doubt and see him with the same coordinator for once instead of getting familiar with a new one every year for the past six years. That's unprecedented when you look at other QBs across the league.

Not here, seems like every time we have a good OC they're gone immediately

3 hours ago, NOTW said:

I'm actually fine with the #3 seed. If the #2 seed is attainable, great. If it relies on too many other factors and Siri decides to rest, I'm good with that. I just don't want rust, AND I want to see the offense functioning well this week. Here's a potential scenario:

  • Week 16: Commies: rest injured guys (Lane, Carter, etc.) do what you need to offensively to feel confident, win, claim division

  • Week 17: Bills: start the healthy remaining starters at first. If there's no seeding change to play for rest the starters at some point, treat it like a preseason game to keep them from getting rusty but rest them after a while.

  • Week 18 Final week vs Commies: rest all starters

Optimistic Super Bowl winning scenarios for the Eagles:

  • Host SF at home, win. At least that's better than the 2023 outcome if nothing else, and considering the struggles and injuries this year and how even SB winners have a hangover.

  • I really don't know how the rest of the NFC playoff games will go, they could go either way. But divisional round scenarios:

    • Eagles at Bears, Rams/Bucs at Seahawks. Or Packers at Seahawks, Rams/Bucs at Eagles. Either way, I like the Eagles chances because they'd be hosting the Rams or Bucs.

    • After last night I don't know about the Seahawks anymore, their defense could show up and win a game, but likely not.

  • NFCCG: either Eagles host the Rams, Bucs or Packers. Or by chance to go Seattle.

No path bothers me, even going to Seattle. Our defense will win that game for us. The defense will do its job against any of these teams. It's up to the offense to do its job.

Playoff bracket as of week 16.png

Bucs aren't winning that division.

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