Just now, The Norseman said:

so was Hillary

Not as heavy as Biden.

For most of 2016 Trump was within the margin of error. Comey comes out 13 days before the election, when 10-15% of the electorate was still undecided, and a lot of those undecideds break for Trump.

Hillary was NEVER double-digits ahead of Trump on any consistent basis, and this close to the election it started to really tighten up. And at this stage only around 5% of the electorate is undecided, while tens of millions have already voted in this election.

Its a waiting game at this point. You can hang your hat on 2016 polling if it helps you through the stages of grief, but Wall Street knows it's over. 

1 hour ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

Wall Street has priced in a Biden win.

Word. I was even saying this back during the primaries. Once he won SC, there was a correlated bump. The market was responding to Bernie being taken off the table.

24 minutes ago, The Norseman said:

Nice job picking out out the one industry that isn't thriving.  Anything to fit your narrative, eh?

Uh, it was you that picked it, Copernicus. 

The number that’s really good for Biden is that he’s polling at 50 percent or above.  What this tells me is that some voters have to change their minds from Biden to Trump for Trump to win.  Who sees that happening?

The Hunter Biden "news” is exciting for the GOP echo chamber.  That’s it though.

5 hours ago, Green Dog said:

I read that he owed at least $200M to Chyna.

No, mexico paid it off

51 minutes ago, mr_hunt said:

Appearing on AM1100 The Flag, a North Dakota radio show, the former New York City mayor grumbled about social media companies initially restricting access to the Post stories, saying it "reminds me of the communist and the NSDAPs.” From there, he said the story should be spread regardless of its accuracy. "They’ve set up an Iron Curtain so you can’t get out the New York Post story which I happened to know is 100 percent accurate,” Giuliani declared. "But even if it isn’t accurate, the American people are entitled to know it.”

Giuliani recently acknowledged that he specifically peddled the salacious Hunter Biden laptop story to the New York Post because they wouldn’t "spend all the time they could to try to contradict it before they put it out.” Other news outlets have reportedly passed on reporting on the laptop material for fear that it can’t be verified and may be part of a targeted disinformation effort.

 

🤡🌎

 

26 minutes ago, mr_hunt said:

Can we get these posts put on the first page?  Seems appropriate.

17 minutes ago, Dave Moss said:

The number that’s really good for Biden is that he’s polling at 50 percent or above.  What this tells me is that some voters have to change their minds from Biden to Trump for Trump to win.  Who sees that happening?

The Hunter Biden "news” is exciting for the GOP echo chamber.  That’s it though.

Not necessarily. It could just as easily be due to unrepresentative sampling just as it was 4 years ago. Basically, out of all the people that choose not to respond to polls, a large enough majority of them could vote for Trump to shift the margin enough in a few key states. This is the closet vote in effect. It's not that these people chose to respond to the polls and then lied to say they were undecided or voting for Biden, it's that they were never responding to begin with. For reference, I never ever respond to polls and I really F'ing hate all these politics-related text messages I get and I report them all as spam immediately. I don't even bother to read them to understand or care if they are pro Trump or Biden. So out of all the people like me in 2016, the majority must've been Trump voters in the states where poll results were outside the MOE, to explain the disparity in the final result.

Not to be Debbie Downer here either, but IBD/TIPP (graded as A/B by 538) just released two polls where Biden is only +2 and +3 nationally. I still think we'll see some tightening over the next 2 weeks, down to +7 or so, even without an equivalent to the Comey Letter. The closet Trump vote will still be in effect as far as I can see, I just don't think it'll significant enough to turn the tides like it did 4 years ago. 

7 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Not necessarily. It could just as easily be due to unrepresentative sampling just as it was 4 years ago. Basically, out of all the people that choose not to respond to polls, a large enough majority of them could vote for Trump to shift the margin enough in a few key states. This is the closet vote in effect. It's not that these people chose to respond to the polls and then lied to say they were undecided or voting for Biden, it's that they were never responding to begin with. For reference, I never ever respond to polls and I really F'ing hate all these politics-related text messages I get and I report them all as spam immediately. I don't even bother to read them to understand or care if they are pro Trump or Biden. So out of all the people like me in 2016, the majority must've been Trump voters in the states where poll results were outside the MOE, to explain the disparity in the final result.

Not to be Debbie Downer here either, but IBD/TIPP (graded as A/B by 538) just released two polls where Biden is only +2 and +3 nationally. I still think we'll see some tightening over the next 2 weeks, down to +7 or so, even without an equivalent to the Comey Letter. The closet Trump vote will still be in effect as far as I can see, I just don't think it'll significant enough to turn the tides like it did 4 years ago. 

Hillary won the popular vote by 2.2%. Going into election day she was ahead by 3-5 points in most polls.  I don’t think anyone thought Trump could win Wisconsin, Michigan, and PA though.

5 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Not necessarily. It could just as easily be due to unrepresentative sampling just as it was 4 years ago. Basically, out of all the people that choose not to respond to polls, a large enough majority of them could vote for Trump to shift the margin enough in a few key states. This is the closet vote in effect. It's not that these people chose to respond to the polls and then lied to say they were undecided or voting for Biden, it's that they were never responding to begin with. For reference, I never ever respond to polls and I really F'ing hate all these politics-related text messages I get and I report them all as spam immediately. I don't even bother to read them to understand or care if they are pro Trump or Biden. So out of all the people like me in 2016, the majority must've been Trump voters in the states where poll results were outside the MOE, to explain the disparity in the final result.

Not to be Debbie Downer here either, but IBD/TIPP (graded as A/B by 538) just released two polls where Biden is only +2 and +3 nationally. I still think we'll see some tightening over the next 2 weeks, down to +7 or so, even without an equivalent to the Comey Letter. The closet Trump vote will still be in effect as far as I can see, I just don't think it'll significant enough to turn the tides like it did 4 years ago. 

I posted in the other thread, but I have to see IBD/TIPP as an outlier. it's something to watch to see if it's indicating something, but it's really out of step with a lot of other good polls - NY Times Siena, USC Dornsife, etc.

I don't disagree with you in general about polling though. Biden seems to be on the same page here about complacency; he should campaign like he's 1 pt behind at all times. 

One thing I'd say though is the "closet effect" can go both ways. There is still a lot of polling happening, and while polling is always just sampling on a small scale, when done consistently and in aggregate is all pointing in one direction, things tend to land pretty close. In 2016 the big issue was Wisconsin polls; in 2018 Dems overperformed polls. 

If I had to guess I'd say polls in 2020 are being overly cautious about a blue wave, and it's more likely to be a blue wave than red. When you see guys like Hogan and Sasse starting to vocally distance themselves from Trump I think that's telling as well.

But the only vote that matters comes in a couple weeks. 

41 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

Not as heavy as Biden.

For most of 2016 Trump was within the margin of error. Comey comes out 13 days before the election, when 10-15% of the electorate was still undecided, and a lot of those undecideds break for Trump.

Hillary was NEVER double-digits ahead of Trump on any consistent basis, and this close to the election it started to really tighten up. And at this stage only around 5% of the electorate is undecided, while tens of millions have already voted in this election.

Its a waiting game at this point. You can hang your hat on 2016 polling if it helps you through the stages of grief, but Wall Street knows it's over. 

How the heck is anyone still undecided at this point?    I think many of those lean Trump - because they are ashamed to vote for him, and don't want to admit it.

15 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Not necessarily. It could just as easily be due to unrepresentative sampling just as it was 4 years ago. Basically, out of all the people that choose not to respond to polls, a large enough majority of them could vote for Trump to shift the margin enough in a few key states. This is the closet vote in effect. It's not that these people chose to respond to the polls and then lied to say they were undecided or voting for Biden, it's that they were never responding to begin with. For reference, I never ever respond to polls and I really F'ing hate all these politics-related text messages I get and I report them all as spam immediately. I don't even bother to read them to understand or care if they are pro Trump or Biden. So out of all the people like me in 2016, the majority must've been Trump voters in the states where poll results were outside the MOE, to explain the disparity in the final result.

Not to be Debbie Downer here either, but IBD/TIPP (graded as A/B by 538) just released two polls where Biden is only +2 and +3 nationally. I still think we'll see some tightening over the next 2 weeks, down to +7 or so, even without an equivalent to the Comey Letter. The closet Trump vote will still be in effect as far as I can see, I just don't think it'll significant enough to turn the tides like it did 4 years ago. 

Biden is not a good candidate and it is showing. Only reason he can win is because of who he is going up against, he is nowhere near as hated as Clinton though which is good

1 minute ago, Joe Shades 73 said:

Biden is not a good candidate and it is showing. Only reason he can win is because of who he is going up against, he is nowhere near as hated as Clinton though which is good

He's not a great candidate under normal circumstances, but he's running a pretty good campaign IMHO. For him to win against Trump he just has to avoid unforced errors, and he's done that. 

He doesn't need to be perfect in the least. He just needs to let Trump crap his pants, and Trump has been more than happy to do so.

59 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

^This

I was watching something that talked about this the other day. It said the tax cuts did not even reach middle class until 2019 when it officially kicked in. It was something like a salary of 100,000 got you like 17 bucks extra in your paycheck a month and people in the 50-30,000 range got you an extra 10 bucks a month extra a month. It was really ridiculous how usless that tax cuts was. 

1 hour ago, mr_hunt said:

We are back to alternative facts now lol

Just now, Bwestbrook36 said:

I was watching something that talked about this the other day. It said the tax cuts did not even reach middle class until 2019 when it officially kicked in. It was something like a salary of 100,000 got you like 17 bucks extra in your paycheck a month and people in the 50-30,000 range got you an extra 10 bucks a month extra a month. It was really ridiculous how usless that tax cuts was. 

Trickle down economics, works so well

1 hour ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

Hillary was NEVER double-digits ahead

BY MAHITA GAJANAN

OCTOBER 26, 2016 5:49 PM EDT

Hillary Clinton has widened her lead over Donald Trump, polling 14 percentage points ahead nationally, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll, which comes 12 days before the presidential election.

1 minute ago, NVeagle said:

BY MAHITA GAJANAN

OCTOBER 26, 2016 5:49 PM EDT

Hillary Clinton has widened her lead over Donald Trump, polling 14 percentage points ahead nationally, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll, which comes 12 days before the presidential election.

 

I specifically said "Hillary was NEVER double-digits ahead of Trump on any consistent basis". There are individual outlier polls that you can cherry-pick to say basically anything, which is why I specifically stated it the way I did.

So let's look at RCP averages for the 6 mos before the election:

there was a LOT of movement during the campaign, and the most Clinton managed was periods of national leads around 6-7 pts.

let's look at Trump-Biden over that same 6 mos period:

Biden is CONSISTENTLY 6+ pts ahead. In the RCP average it's been as high as around +10.3 following the last debate (and if Trump has a repeat performance maybe we'll see another, but I think the mute button will actually HELP him), but currently it's over 8 pts nationally. 

It's not the same race man.

also, to add to the above, note that 50% line. Biden has been over it for basically the entirety of October. Trump has been stuck around 42-43. That means there's like 5-8% that are undecided or who are going 3rd party. (and even if ALL of them went Trump Biden STILL wins, at least the national popular vote which is meaningless from an electoral standpoint but still indicative of the way the race is going)

Contrast that with 4 years ago - if you look at October before it gets real tight towards the end you're looking at (generously) 48 for Hillary and 42 for Trump - so 10% of the electorate there is undecided or 3rd party. Towards the end a LOT of those ended up breaking for Trump (you can see it in late polling), but there isn't that many undecideds here in 2020. 

5 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

It's not the same race man.

See how the Media can manipulate information.

15 minutes ago, NVeagle said:

See how the Media can manipulate information.

17 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

also, to add to the above, note that 50% line. Biden has been over it for basically the entirety of October. Trump has been stuck around 42-43. That means there's like 5-8% that are undecided or who are going 3rd party. (and even if ALL of them went Trump Biden STILL wins, at least the national popular vote which is meaningless from an electoral standpoint but still indicative of the way the race is going)

Contrast that with 4 years ago - if you look at October before it gets real tight towards the end you're looking at (generously) 48 for Hillary and 42 for Trump - so 10% of the electorate there is undecided or 3rd party. Towards the end a LOT of those ended up breaking for Trump (you can see it in late polling), but there isn't that many undecideds here in 2020. 

OMG.  How are people still undecided?     Who are these idiots!  Let's see, a con man, narcissist, criminal, inept bungler in a crisis vs  nice guy Joe.   Geez - I dunno what to do.  duh duh.  

3 minutes ago, DEagle7 said:

 

 

6 hours ago, caesar said:

Yeah, so lets ignore Trump's trail of incompetence and sordidness and lawlessness, just cause you think he alone has stoked the economy and you like "originalists" on the supreme court.  Yeah, that's a valid rational basis for choosing.   The hell with leadership in a crisis (or lack thereof);  The hell with crimes in office and being impeached.      Good luck with that logical reasoning!

What crisis?

2 minutes ago, lynched1 said:

What crisis?

The xmas decorations crisis.  https://www.chicagotribune.com/nation-world/ct-nw-nyt-melania-trump-recording-christmas-jacket-20201002-krld2mfxzzfotlu353a3gvljli-story.html