11 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

They might not be reading the Arizona electorate correctly.

We're talking about activists here... So no. Not likely. 

9 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

They are guaranteeing the seat flips to the GOP. 

Kelly has to defend his seat in 2022. 

Sinema has 3 years.

This is all stupid theatre around Sinema.

I don't disagree with your stance that if progressives keep overplaying their hand they will screw Dems at large ... in every election.

But these idiots are trying to threaten a Senator who has built a strong national brand as a maverick in a short time - something that DOES play well in Arizona - three years before it matters.

The progressive wing seems to think the way to win is to swing for the fences every damn time. They have no understanding about small ball politics. Which is what you play when you have no margin.

Because they're... idiots. Political morons. 

Dems need a new James Carville.

What kind of bizarre talking point is this? Just how stupid do democrats think their supporter are?

 

9 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

Manchin wants the environmental stuff out for coal country. Sinema is adamant it stay in. 

I guess a better way of saying it is -- they don't care if any of it passes. They'd be just fine with only the bipartisan bill.

And progressives want all of the social package. So compromise is somewhere in the middle. Nobody said governing is easy.

7 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

Kelly has to defend his seat in 2022. 

Sinema has 3 years.

This is all stupid theatre around Sinema.

I don't disagree with your stance that if progressives keep overplaying their hand they will screw Dems at large ... in every election.

But these idiots are trying to threaten a Senator who has built a strong national brand as a maverick in a short time - something that DOES play well in Arizona - three years before it matters.

The progressive wing seems to think the way to win is to swing for the fences every damn time. They have no understanding about small ball politics. Which is what you play when you have no margin.

Because they're... idiots. Political morons. 

Dems need a new James Carville.

Or maybe just...listen to James Carville. The OG version. 

5 minutes ago, toolg said:

And progressives want all of the social package. So compromise is somewhere in the middle. Nobody said governing is easy.

The progressives seem to think it is. Just gimme everything I want! They want the unicorns, rainbows and the lollipops.

It's pathetic. They will never compromise or cut a deal. 

I still contend McCarthy could outmaneuver them by freeing up enough GOP votes to make it LOOK bipartisan without it passing...but Pelosi won't put it on the floor without the votes from the Dems methinks.

Just now, vikas83 said:

Or maybe just...listen to James Carville. The OG version. 

I'd be fine with that. When I listen to Carville today I pine for a Bubba presidency.

Maybe just one where he doesn't get caught getting a hummer.

Just now, vikas83 said:

The progressives seem to think it is. Just gimme everything I want!

It's pathetic. They will never compromise or cut a deal. 

I still contend McCarthy could outmaneuver them by freeing up enough GOP votes to make it LOOK bipartisan without it passing...but Pelosi won't put it on the floor without the votes from the Dems methinks.

 

I've seen nothing from McCarthy that suggests he's anything more than a clumsy feckless seat warmer. Maybe I'm wrong.

1 minute ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

 

I've seen nothing from McCarthy that suggests he's anything more than a clumsy feckless seat warmer. Maybe I'm wrong.

I said he COULD, not that he WOULD. Of course he won't do it, it would anger God-Emperor Orange.

What odds would Vegas give on McCarthy outmaneuvering Pelosi?

Just now, JohnSnowsHair said:

What odds would Vegas give on McCarthy outmaneuvering Pelosi?

Infinity:1

Just now, vikas83 said:

I said he COULD, not that he WOULD. Of course he won't do it, it would anger God-Emperor Orange.

Gotcha.

So basically if he was a competent .... anything, he might try to make that play.

I give it 1-255 odds.

Just now, vikas83 said:

The progressives seem to think it is. Just gimme everything I want!

It's pathetic. They will never compromise or cut a deal. 

I still contend McCarthy could outmaneuver them by freeing up enough GOP votes to make it LOOK bipartisan without it passing...but Pelosi won't put it on the floor without the votes from the Dems methinks.

The progressives are at the negotiating table as we speak. But if they agree to move forward with infrastructure before dealing with the rest of the bill, progressives risk losing everything. They won't risk it. The other side that refuses to deal. All they say is "we don't like it" then walk away. If Manchin and Sinema could make a decision, we'd all be ready to move it along.

I agree, Pelosi is holding back until they have all the votes.

So are the progressives trying to tax unrealized capitals gains or not? All I care about 

Just now, DaEagles4Life said:

So are the progressives trying to tax unrealized capitals gains or not? All I care about 

Trying? Yes 

Succeeding? No

1 hour ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

I'd be fine with that. When I listen to Carville today I pine for a Bubba presidency.

Maybe just one where he doesn't get caught getting a hummer.

Where we pretend there is a surplus and turn down Bin Ladin? Good times

3 minutes ago, ToastJenkins said:

Where we pretend there is a surplus and turn down Bin Ladin? Good times

It's all relative, TJ. After the last 5 years, I'd take anyone other than James Buchanan back. 

I hear good things about Millard Fillmore...

Yeah, this is going well for the Dems...

 

1 minute ago, vikas83 said:

Yeah, this is going well for the Dems...

 

I, for one, am amused by her flippant attitude. 

1 minute ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

I, for one, am amused by her flippant attitude. 

It's a standoff. Manchin and Sinema both are saying they won't talk reconciliation until AFTER the bipartisan infrastructure bill passes.

Now, watch the progressive caucus blow up both bills. 

Kelly knows he's up for re-election in 14 mos. He's not rocking any boats.

Sinema knows her brand. And she knows she has time. 

1 minute ago, TheShenandoahEagle said:

 

Correction: It is the moderates threatening to sink everything, not progressives. The Progressives have already negotiated down. The original bill being talked about was 6 trillion. The deal made was the (basically glorified highways bill) and other "hard infrastructure" things would be separated into it's own bill (thus lowering the leverage the progressives had), and that it would pass on a 'two track plan' with the reconciliation bill. The progressives would support the bipartisan infrastructure bill in exchange for both bills getting passed. In addition to that, the original bill that still woulda been roughly ~5 trillion over 10 years with the hard infrastructure stuff out, was scaled down to 3.5 trillion. The progressives held up their end of the bargain, and now the moderates are trying to get more. And, more specifically, Manchin and Sinema. They're the ones sinking the bill and trying to get more of what they want, not progressives in this scenario.
 

And as Jonathan Chait pointed out today--and if you know anything about him, you know he's neoliberal cheerleader #1 who constantly defends incrementalism over big bold policy moves--If Biden's big achievement is just the glorified highways bill, it will be a massive failure of a presidency. And the House will be lost in 2022 anyway. The better political move for the progressives, in order to strengthen their position in the future, is definitely to not give in to the moderates on this.

 

Kelly tends to have a higher approval rating in AZ than Sinema does. And her open corruption-esque moves with certain fundraising and wineries and etc isn't going to make her any more popular.

You're missing the point. The progressives can either have the bipartisan bill and maybe a $1.5 trillion reconciliation bill, or they get $0. But they have to pass the bipartisan bill first. They didn't "negotiate down" from $6 trillion -- it doesn't count when you negotiate against yourself. 

If nothing passes, Manchin and Sinema won't take a hit in WV and AZ. The progressives will get slaughtered back home. 

The progressives are brining a knife to a gun fight.

2 minutes ago, TheShenandoahEagle said:

And I think the progressives can (and should) go with $0. If Manchin and Sinema aren't going to give them what they're asking for, then there's no reason to stick with the deal in the first place. The deal was both get passed, not one and then we go back and re-negotiate on the other. And hell even the hard infrastructure bill was gutted, see below. This is a brilliant use of visual infographics:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/07/28/upshot/infrastructure-breakdown.html

And they didn't "negotiate against themselves", they split out the hard infrastructure and lowered the total ask on behalf of the moderates. Now the moderates want more (well, less). I say, F em! The highways bill aint enough to make a difference and save house Dems in 2022, and it's barely enough to make a dent in the infrastructure needs we have. So it's worth having this fight here and now, in my opinion.

Sinema isn't going to survive a primary IMO. Her approvals are...bad, among the Dem voters. Kelly outpaces her among all voters in the state overall too. It's not like she's gaining immense popularity here.

If Biden and Sanders were smart they'd go stumping in West Virginia. The voters of West Virginia overwhelmingly like the provisions in the reconciliation bill. Manchin's just getting a crap ton of money from coal interests to oppose anything that does anything to divert investment away from coal and into the future of energy. It's annoying and terrible and everything bad about out government and politics and I'd much rather the progressives hold the line than give into that AGAIN. They've been doing it since the ACA and it's proven time and again to be the wrong move.

LOL. Thank you for encapsulating in one post the entire reason the Democratic party will fail to ever accomplish anything. 

Oh please nominate progressives in WV and AZ...that will go swimmingly. 

something something, progressives overplaying their hand....

3 minutes ago, TheShenandoahEagle said:

Right, and the boats he's not rocking, or more accurately the boats he's not currently giving a crap about trying to satisfy, are the mythical moderate right wing voters who would vote for him if only he'd be more fiscally responsible. At the end of the day he's a smart guy and a likable personality and that goes further in elections these days than most other things. In other words, him supporting the reconciliation bill wouldn't be what costs him a win next year.

do you honestly thing progressive dems have that much power in AZ? 

AZ, the state that gave us McCain, and a historically Libertarian leaning red state? Goldwater's home? 

Yes, I know that Phoenix has been growing (against all environmental reason). But it's purple, not blue. And very losable. 

Sinema is the kind of Dem that can win there. She has a better shot in 2024 than Kelly does in 2022.