What Happens if we Lose Out

[EagleJoe8]

19 minutes ago, time2rock said:

No doubt.  But doesn’t it just seem like either a Eagles thing or Doug thing that they’d do?  

Yes unfortunately. Marty was OC here before, so I could see Lurie putting him there.

[toolg]

4 minutes ago, PoconoDon said:

Ahead in the standings but after them ll in the draft. All of the 3 win teams would pick before the Eagles.

Right.

[PoconoDon]

3 minutes ago, toolg said:

Right.

OK. We're on the same page, and at this point it's probably best for them to lose out despite the fact that on game day I really want them to win. My cognitive dissonance is epic!

[Godfather]

High draft picks

[time2rock]

1 hour ago, EagleJoe8 said:

Yes unfortunately. Marty was OC here before, so I could see Lurie putting him there.

I would have an aneurysm.  

[EagleJoe8]

16 minutes ago, time2rock said:

I would have an aneurysm.  

You and 95% of the fan base lol.

[JetroLot]

4 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

High draft picks are the most over-valued commodity in the NFL. Fans love 'em but go back over the last 20 Eagles drafts and ask yourself who turned out to be a star.  D-Jax? Shady?  Fletcher Cox?  Good players but not necessarily elite.  So yeah, trading back, in my view, makes sense.

Did you just say Fletcher Cox is not elite? I want to be sure you just said an elite defensive tackle is indeed, not elite. 

Thanks. 

[Traveler Vic]

A LT or DE if Howie is still around. Anything Goes if there is a GM change. If I was the GM..I would definitely move back, considering the number of holes on this team. Fixing financial woes is also important! 5-6 guys from second and third round would do a heck of a lot more for this team, than just 1 stud. And they can learn on the job together at a much reduced, to current veterans, salary.

[LacesOut]

I would think the smart decision is to trade back and obtain another pick or two. 

But that path would require that whomever is doing the drafting have a Football IQ and a clue. 

[mjkvol]

5 hours ago, Madriver said:

Oddly, we seem to do much better in the draft late than early. We are semi-disastrous in the first two rounds. I wanted us to trade back last year. I think we need to trade back and acquire more picks this time around because we suck so much at drafting, it at least gives us more chances to hit on something useful.

But that''s the entire point in a nutshell - "we suck at drafting".          You don't arrange the draft to work around the fact that you suck at drafting, you address the reasons why you suck at drafting.        Anything else is keeping your head in the sand, or somewhere else, while you're spinning your wheels and wasting another season.

[Madriver]

Just now, mjkvol said:

But that''s the entire point in a nutshell - "we suck at drafting".          You don't arrange the draft to work around the fact that you suck at drafting, you address the reasons why you suck at drafting.        Anything else is keeping your head in the sand, or somewhere else, while you're spinning your wheels and wasting another season.

Makes perfect sense to me but I don't see Howie suddenly having this kind of epiphany. So I guess we have to play the numbers game and hope for the best until we get a new GM.

[time2rock]

5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

High draft picks are the most over-valued commodity in the NFL. Fans love 'em but go back over the last 20 Eagles drafts and ask yourself who turned out to be a star.  D-Jax? Shady?  Fletcher Cox?  Good players but not necessarily elite.  So yeah, trading back, in my view, makes sense.

Speaking for myself and many here, if we were to lose out, while unfortunate, the positive that people are trying to hang their hats on is a change to the guy making the selections with those picks, whether they are high picks or late picks .... not necessarily just ending up with a higher pick.  

[Hawkeye]

1 minute ago, time2rock said:

Speaking for myself and many here, if we were to lose out, while unfortunate, the positive that people are trying to hang their hats on is a change to the guy making the selections with those picks, whether they are high picks or late picks .... not necessarily just ending up with a higher pick.  

Yeah but do you think they’ll really do that?  I don’t see it.  Lurie has stuck with Howie through thick and thin.

[mjkvol]

19 minutes ago, Madriver said:

Makes perfect sense to me but I don't see Howie suddenly having this kind of epiphany. So I guess we have to play the numbers game and hope for the best until we get a new GM.

I'm sure as hell not expecting Roseman to suddenly become a legitimate NFL GM, epiphany or not.         It's a pretty simple equation - either he's gone or what we see is what we'll continue to get.         Dancing around the edges by hiring people to help him is pointless if Roseman continues to make the final decisions.        It's time to cut bait and bring in people who know what the hell they're doing.

4 minutes ago, time2rock said:

Speaking for myself and many here, if we were to lose out, while unfortunate, the positive that people are trying to hang their hats on is a change to the guy making the selections with those picks, whether they are high picks or late picks .... not necessarily just ending up with a higher pick.  

Bingo.

[time2rock]

8 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Yeah but do you think they’ll really do that?  I don’t see it.  Lurie has stuck with Howie through thick and thin.

Unfortunately I do not.  I think it'll take a few consecutive seasons to make Lurie consider such a drastic move.  

[nipples]

15 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

High draft picks are the most over-valued commodity in the NFL. Fans love 'em but go back over the last 20 Eagles drafts and ask yourself who turned out to be a star.  D-Jax? Shady?  Fletcher Cox?  Good players but not necessarily elite.  So yeah, trading back, in my view, makes sense.

Aren’t you kind of advocating for the fact that high pick IS a big deal? This team has rarely had top 10 picks in recent memory. The last time they did finish poorly enough to pick top 10, I believe, is when they got Lane. And Wentz obviously after the trade up, which unfortunately is looking like a miss.  Even Cox wasn’t top 10, he was 12th. 
 

If you look at draft history across the league, yes you can find good players later in the first and even in the mid rounds, but overwhelmingly the top 10 picks produce more all-pro caliber players. And if you’re stipulating that Howie sucks at drafting, which is true with a few exceptions, then you should want that pick as high as possible. It’s much harder to screw up the 5th pick than it is a pick in the teens. 

[ManchesterEagle]

There’s almost no chance Doug leaves. Hopefully he realises he needs a legitimate OC though.

Although most people on this board think that Howie is a dreadful GM now, he is not as bad as people think and I don’t think the Eagles see him in the same way. I don’t want to get in a debate on this, particularly as I don’t like some of his moves myself, particularly in not addressing the D properly.

Schwartz may well go. I’m not sure that will be the Eagles decision. He may want to leave.

Things are awful at the moment, but we are 3 years away from the franchise’s first Super Bowl win and we made the playoffs the last 2 years despite crippling injuries.

I would be very surprised if Doug or Howie are let go at the end of the year.

[vaeagle2]

i see nothing that says doug and current coaches can fix this team so i think the team does lose out giving them a top 5 pick , you figure 2 QB's picked 1 and 2 with the jets and jags then cincy at 3 most likely goes OL and the eagles could pick 4 or 5 and have their pick of best player at DE , CB , LB , WR OR OL which they need all but most importantly they can't reach on players they need to hit on all picks so howie needs to stay home during the combine and draft day.

[time2rock]

47 minutes ago, ManchesterEagle said:

There’s almost no chance Doug leaves. Hopefully he realises he needs a legitimate OC though.

Although most people on this board think that Howie is a dreadful GM now, he is not as bad as people think and I don’t think the Eagles see him in the same way. I don’t want to get in a debate on this, particularly as I don’t like some of his moves myself, particularly in not addressing the D properly.

Schwartz may well go. I’m not sure that will be the Eagles decision. He may want to leave.

Things are awful at the moment, but we are 3 years away from the franchise’s first Super Bowl win and we made the playoffs the last 2 years despite crippling injuries.

I would be very surprised if Doug or Howie are let go at the end of the year.

I’ve been saying for weeks it will likely take a string of a few consecutive seasons where we are performing way below expectations in order to see a change at GM and possibly HC.  Now if we get completely embarrassed the next few weeks, not just losing out but getting blown out in the process, then that could help push the needle to Doug being let go (or at the very least be given an ultimatum that he needs to give up play calling to a new OC and hiring a legitimate QB coach to try to get their most valuable/expensive asset back on track).  IMO those are 2 things we absolutely need at a minimum.  

[ManchesterEagle]

25 minutes ago, time2rock said:

I’ve been saying for weeks it will likely take a string of a few consecutive seasons where we are performing way below expectations in order to see a change at GM and possibly HC.  Now if we get completely embarrassed the next few weeks, not just losing out but getting blown out in the process, then that could help push the needle to Doug being let go (or at the very least be given an ultimatum that he needs to give up play calling to a new OC and hiring a legitimate QB coach to try to get their most valuable/expensive asset back on track).  IMO those are 2 things we absolutely need at a minimum.  

Agreed. Completely needed, particularly as we are tied to Wentz until 2022. 
 

What a lot of people haven’t considered is whether Hurts will be good or not. Even if Wentz can’t bounce back, if Hurts shows himself to be a potential franchise QB, then Howie and Doug are likely given further time.

Either way I just don’t see material changes in the near future.

[NOTW]

12 hours ago, mjkvol said:

But that''s the entire point in a nutshell - "we suck at drafting".          You don't arrange the draft to work around the fact that you suck at drafting, you address the reasons why you suck at drafting.        Anything else is keeping your head in the sand, or somewhere else, while you're spinning your wheels and wasting another season.

Exactly. So many fans think up these workarounds to drafting better instead of admit Howie needs to go.  They will spin wheels to come up with ideas, well if they just did this or that...ignoring the elephant in the room that Howie can't draft.  Get rid of the problem.

[NOTW]

12 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Yeah but do you think they’ll really do that?  I don’t see it.  Lurie has stuck with Howie through thick and thin.

Everyone says that, but here are 3 points to counter:

1. He let his long time friend Joe Banner go, why not Howie?
2. Why did he demote Howie and give all the power to Chip if he was so loyal to Howie?
3. He brought in Joe Douglas from a successful drafting team who worked under one of the best GMs in the league.  That showed they knew they needed outside help with drafting.

Lurie waited too long with Reid and it's understandable given his history but he ultimately made the move after a 4-12 season.  Lurie wants results.  He's fired coaches and has become more invested with the decision to move up and draft Wentz, rumored to have wanted changes to offensive coaches last year, etc.

If Lurie believes Howie is a problem he will fire him.  But I don't know that this year it happens, I think they make coaches and players as scapegoats first.

[Hawkeye]

1 hour ago, NOTW said:

Everyone says that, but here are 3 points to counter:

1. He let his long time friend Joe Banner go, why not Howie?
2. Why did he demote Howie and give all the power to Chip if he was so loyal to Howie?
3. He brought in Joe Douglas from a successful drafting team who worked under one of the best GMs in the league.  That showed they knew they needed outside help with drafting.

Lurie waited too long with Reid and it's understandable given his history but he ultimately made the move after a 4-12 season.  Lurie wants results.  He's fired coaches and has become more invested with the decision to move up and draft Wentz, rumored to have wanted changes to offensive coaches last year, etc.

If Lurie believes Howie is a problem he will fire him.  But I don't know that this year it happens, I think they make coaches and players as scapegoats first.

Howie will save his own skin for at least another season.  Bet on it.  To address your questions:

1. Howie won him a Super Bowl.  That buys a lot of goodwill.
2. Because at the time Chip was hired, the whole league was swooning over the innovative offensive genius from Oregon and he demanded full control as part of his deal to come to Philly. On the other hand, Lurie kept Howie around - he didn't fire him, which is the normal course of events.  That's telling.
3. The roster has deteriorated from the Super Bowl season to the train wreck we have now.  Douglas' departure exposed the FO for what it is. 

[NOTW]

23 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Howie will save his own skin for at least another season.  Bet on it.  To address your questions:

1. Howie won him a Super Bowl.  That buys a lot of goodwill.
2. Because at the time Chip was hired, the whole league was swooning over the innovative offensive genius from Oregon and he demanded full control as part of his deal to come to Philly. On the other hand, Lurie kept Howie around - he didn't fire him, which is the normal course of events.  That's telling.
3. The roster has deteriorated from the Super Bowl season to the train wreck we have now.  Douglas' departure exposed the FO for what it is. 

Doug won a SB too, but we don't think he won't fire Doug.  I do agree the SB bought goodwill...and why I don't see Howie being fired yet, but if it continues to be bad and Howie is exposed I don't think he's untouchable.  They're in cap hell next year and have to purge a lot of contracts to save money...and replace them with drafted players...that Howie sucks at drafting.

My point on Douglas was that they didn't trust Howie, they brought in someone from the outside.  I don't think Howie's untouchable, I think his day will come but first will be coaches.

[Hawkeye]

4 hours ago, nipples said:

Aren’t you kind of advocating for the fact that high pick IS a big deal? This team has rarely had top 10 picks in recent memory. The last time they did finish poorly enough to pick top 10, I believe, is when they got Lane. And Wentz obviously after the trade up, which unfortunately is looking like a miss.  Even Cox wasn’t top 10, he was 12th. 
 

If you look at draft history across the league, yes you can find good players later in the first and even in the mid rounds, but overwhelmingly the top 10 picks produce more all-pro caliber players. And if you’re stipulating that Howie sucks at drafting, which is true with a few exceptions, then you should want that pick as high as possible. It’s much harder to screw up the 5th pick than it is a pick in the teens. 

I'm saying high draft picks are great in the abstract but eventually they turn into players. That's when the trouble starts.

Say you have a high pick - not a top five necessarily, but say a 2nd rounder - and rather than drafting for one of the ten billion needs you have, you select a QB prospect even though you just signed your "franchise" QB to a megadeal (despite a concerning pattern of injury and regression). Naturally, franchise guy continues to play poorly so you bring in your high pick to get something going, right? WRONG! He's seen on gadget plays now and then but that's about it.  It's not just the pick itself  but who you draft and how you use him. 

So yes, theoretically a high pick has a higher likelihood of developing into a star in a vacuum,  but in the real world, giving up one mid-first round/2nd for two or three 3rd to 5th rounders (or whatever the draft value chart says) might make sense.