What Happens if we Lose Out

[Hawkeye]

6 minutes ago, NOTW said:

Doug won a SB too, but we don't think he won't fire Doug.  I do agree the SB bought goodwill...and why I don't see Howie being fired yet, but if it continues to be bad and Howie is exposed I don't think he's untouchable.  They're in cap hell next year and have to purge a lot of contracts to save money...and replace them with drafted players...that Howie sucks at drafting.

My point on Douglas was that they didn't trust Howie, they brought in someone from the outside.  And that was after winning the Super Bowl so Howie wasn't trusted to evaluate the talent even after the goodwill of the SB.  

I don't think Howie's untouchable, I think his day will come but first will be coaches.

Got it.  You're right, Lurie's actions indicate he'll doesn't fully trust Howie yet he has not been able to move on.  

[NOTW]

3 hours ago, ManchesterEagle said:

There’s almost no chance Doug leaves. Hopefully he realises he needs a legitimate OC though.

Although most people on this board think that Howie is a dreadful GM now, he is not as bad as people think and I don’t think the Eagles see him in the same way. I don’t want to get in a debate on this, particularly as I don’t like some of his moves myself, particularly in not addressing the D properly.

Schwartz may well go. I’m not sure that will be the Eagles decision. He may want to leave.

Things are awful at the moment, but we are 3 years away from the franchise’s first Super Bowl win and we made the playoffs the last 2 years despite crippling injuries.

I would be very surprised if Doug or Howie are let go at the end of the year.

Howie's strengths have been in cap management, negotiating contracts and trades, signing free agents and finding value in later rounds.  I think the late round drafting is due to the others in the room pushing for guys they liked from their scouting, I kind of doubt Howie really knows these guys and is pounding his fist on the table to draft them.  Stoutland says he wants this O lineman, Howie drafts him.  I think it's in the early rounds that Howie is pushing for guys after that he's doing what he should do which is rely on the board that all the scouts and coaches put together.

His other strengths are no longer strengths.  Bad contracts, bad trades, kicking the can down the road on the salary cap puts them in a bad situation and they've held on to older or injury prone players too long and relied on them instead of drafting young talent.

His weaknesses are the top things you need a GM to do.  Drafting, team philosophy and hiring all coaches and personnel staff to fit that philosophy.  And now that his strengths have become his weaknessess...plus the hubris after winning the SB and buying his own hype..he's not useful anymore.

[NOTW]

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Got it.  You're right, Lurie's actions indicate he'll doesn't fully trust Howie yet he has not been able to move on.  

 

It's been a progression.  First he was just the new Joe Banner to do the financial side.  Then he "streamlined" the draft evaluation through Howie to put the draft board together.  Then he brought in Chip and Howie was to get the players Chip wanted...then just toss Howie aside and let Chip have control.  that didn't happen Chip's first season, it wasn't part of his contract deal.  After 1 season Chip said he needs to call the shots to get his players so Lurie caved...Chip was already under contract.  He didn't clamor for Howie to remain in charge then.  

He gave the keys back to Howie...then brought in Joe Douglas to run personnel evaluation and the draft but still have Howie "make the final call."  I think Lurie thinks he needs Howie for the salary cap and negotiation and that side of things...but he's failing at that now, too.  

A new coaching staff if they improve the record will buy Howie more time.  But bad drafting, bad contracts, cap hell...that catches up to you.

[hoosierdaddy]

21 hours ago, Mike030270 said:

There's a scenario where we can get the 4th overall but most gave us the 5th

You can mess around with different scenarios here and see the change in draft order

NFL Playoff Predictor - NFL 2020-2021 Season - Playoff Predictors

yep, I love this tool. I was playing around with it and ended with us picking 7th. I'd take that.

[Mike030270]

I'd actually be scared to have the 4th or 5th overall with Howie

[ManchesterEagle]

2 hours ago, NOTW said:

Howie's strengths have been in cap management, negotiating contracts and trades, signing free agents and finding value in later rounds.  I think the late round drafting is due to the others in the room pushing for guys they liked from their scouting, I kind of doubt Howie really knows these guys and is pounding his fist on the table to draft them.  Stoutland says he wants this O lineman, Howie drafts him.  I think it's in the early rounds that Howie is pushing for guys after that he's doing what he should do which is rely on the board that all the scouts and coaches put together.

His other strengths are no longer strengths.  Bad contracts, bad trades, kicking the can down the road on the salary cap puts them in a bad situation and they've held on to older or injury prone players too long and relied on them instead of drafting young talent.

His weaknesses are the top things you need a GM to do.  Drafting, team philosophy and hiring all coaches and personnel staff to fit that philosophy.  And now that his strengths have become his weaknessess...plus the hubris after winning the SB and buying his own hype..he's not useful anymore.

Look - I’m not against Howie leaving - as I said I think he’s made a lot of mistakes. I just think he has a longer leash than most people on this board think.

But you have to give him credit for some of the good moves he has made (the free agents in the Super Bowl year, Sanders, Goedert, Mailata etc), in the same way that you have to give him blame for his mistakes.

Whoever identified Mailata, Howie made the moves to get him, so deserves credit.

[NOTW]

3 hours ago, Mike030270 said:

I'd actually be scared to have the 4th or 5th overall with Howie

I prefer higher pick with Howie because more chance he'll take a top prospect and not a reach.  With high picks he's taken Fletcher Cox (12), Lane Johnson (4) and Wentz (2).  Barnett was a 14th.  Picking later he's taken Marcus Smith, Agholor, traded back, Dillard and Reagor.  Dillard may be an ok pick and Reagor a quality WR but to get star talent they need to be picking higher otherwise it seems the ceiling for his picks is decent starters.  

[Talonblood]

9 hours ago, Bacarty2 said:

Laughable to think the odds of a top 5 compared to a mid 20 are the same 

As long as someone OTHER than Howie makes the pick.

[Infam]

What happens if we lose out:

1. Everyone will be super excited for the draft (some older members with a bit of Anxiety maybe)

2. We pick some random guy high nobody saw coming

3. People will be angry af...

[mjkvol]

11 hours ago, nipples said:

And if you’re stipulating that Howie sucks at drafting, which is true with a few exceptions, then you should want that pick as high as possible. It’s much harder to screw up the 5th pick than it is a pick in the teens. 

Think about what you're saying - hopefully the Eagles get a higher pick because the chances are better that a guy who is a pathetic drafter who happens to be the guy running your draft is less likely to f***k it up.            I'll retire to Bedlam. 

[mjkvol]

3 hours ago, ManchesterEagle said:

Look - I’m not against Howie leaving - as I said I think he’s made a lot of mistakes. I just think he has a longer leash than most people on this board think.

I don't think anyone is of the belief that Lurie will definitely fire Roseman, or that he even might do it.           That's part of the reason we see these silly posts about ways to work around his drafting deficiencies, as if his being here is a given.

The bottom line is this - he has proven to be a mediocre (at the very best) drafter, and the things he has been lionized for (cap management, smart contracts, cheap 'diamond in the rough' signings) have proven to be a mirage as well, camouflaged by one brilliant season where every move turned to gold.         

Well, reality has set in - the bad drafts have caught up with the Eagles in the form of scant high end young talent, 'locking up the core' has resulted in a lot of bad contracts with decent at best players, and the cheap signings have become the more predictable 'you get what you pay for' variety.

I have little doubt that Lurie won't part ways with Roseman barring a complete implosion, and even then he would somehow keep around him in some manner.        To me, there is nothing that can be done here that would turn this mess around faster than bringing in a competent man to run the football operation, and stop with the new age gobbledygook, slogans, and 'collaborative' garbage.         Anything short of that and we will in all likelihood see the same mediocre product.

[Madriver]

9 minutes ago, mjkvol said:

I don't think anyone is of the belief that Lurie will definitely fire Roseman, or that he even might do it.           That's part of the reason we see these silly posts about ways to work around his drafting deficiencies, as if his being here is a given.

The bottom line is this - he has proven to be a mediocre (at the very best) drafter, and the things he has been lionized for (cap management, smart contracts, cheap 'diamond in the rough' signings) have proven to be a mirage as well, camouflaged by one brilliant season where every move turned to gold.         

Well, reality has set in - the bad drafts have caught up with the Eagles in the form of scant high end young talent, 'locking up the core' has resulted in a lot of bad contracts with decent at best players, and the cheap signings have become the more predictable 'you get what you pay for' variety.

I have little doubt that Lurie won't part ways with Roseman barring a complete implosion, and even then he would somehow keep around him in some manner.        To me, there is nothing that can be done here that would turn this mess around faster than bringing in a competent man to run the football operation, and stop with the new age gobbledygook, slogans, and 'collaborative' garbage.         Anything short of that and we will in all likelihood see the same mediocre product.

Then those posts aren't so silly. We're stuck with him and his bad drafting for at least 2 more seasons IMO. Hoping against hope is all that's left when it comes to Howie's job tenure.

[Captain F]

2 hours ago, Infam said:

What happens if we lose out:

1. Everyone will be super excited for the draft (some older members with a bit of Anxiety maybe)

2. We pick some random guy high nobody saw coming

3. People will be angry af...

/thread

[mjkvol]

1 hour ago, Madriver said:

Then those posts aren't so silly. We're stuck with him and his bad drafting for at least 2 more seasons IMO. Hoping against hope is all that's left when it comes to Howie's job tenure.

I've given up hoping, and I'm sure as hell not going to worry about figuring out how he can do the least damage on draft weekend.         It's really simple, and we all know it - barring some serious organizational changes, what we see is going to be what we'll get.

[nipples]

2 hours ago, mjkvol said:

Think about what you're saying - hopefully the Eagles get a higher pick because the chances are better that a guy who is a pathetic drafter who happens to be the guy running your draft is less likely to f***k it up.            I'll retire to Bedlam. 

Yes that’s exactly what I’m saying. Let’s be real, once you get to the teens and lower the draft is typically a crapshoot for any GM. Some may do a bit better than others, but there are tons of busts once you get around that point in the first. But top 10 picks, and even more so top 5, have a much better likelihood of panning out. 
 

The fact is that Howie is likely here next season. So might as well hope he gets the biggest draft advantage he can, by landing at a high enough slot that there are plenty of the top talents left. 

[NOTW]

Having extra picks especially rounds 3 and later certainly helps because perhaps the odds go up they'll hit on someone.  Look at this year for example, drafting 3 WRs (and using a 4th draft pick to trade for one).  

But, they need STAR players not just "a guy" to plug in at starter. 

[PoconoDon]

Same old Eagles. Incapable of building a sustainable Championship team. Back to assuming their normal door-mat-to-also-ran position in the league.

If a football team was a poem, the Eagles would be Ozymandias.

[NOTW]

9 hours ago, PoconoDon said:

Same old Eagles. Incapable of building a sustainable Championship team. Back to assuming their normal door-mat-to-also-ran position in the league.

If a football team was a poem, the Eagles would be Ozymandias.

Colin Cowherd compared it to someone winning the lottery, then going broke because they don't know how to handle money (in this case success).

We saw Doug say this is the "new normal."  Carson's reaction in congratulating Foles was to make it about himself and say it will be me next year.  They erected statues.  Doug wrote a book on winning and I believe I heard that he criticized Sean McVay in that.  Howie has now admitted that they were holding onto players from that team too long.  Doug is still loyal to a fault to veteran players like Peters and Jeffrey when the future is now with Mailata and Fulgham.  The team went from the underdog hungry and scrappy team to big heads, cocky and believing their own hype. 

3 years in a row now they have had a losing record and have to have a "wake up call" and talk about getting it figured out, to fight back, we're still in this, etc.  They've been sloppy with penalties and mental mistakes from poor throws to bad snaps to missed tackles.  Even this season they are not making changes.  Carson says he won't change, it's who he is.  Doug is ok with that, because he also won't change.  He won't change play calling to suit Carson's strengths, he won't stick with the run even when it's working, he won't change the lineup or hold Schwartz accountable to make scheme changes.  They just keep saying they believe in themselves (which in and of itself is great to trust your team and support each other), but when things are bad you have to adjust.

And this is not one season.  It's been 3 years in a row of falling behind and having to climb out of a hole.  They don't start a season prepared.  They were unprepared after the bye. They only seem to care once their backs are against the wall.  

But you look at young and hungry players trying to prove themselves.  Ward, Fulgham, Reagor, Mailata, Sanders, Scott, Goedert, Singleton, Ridgeway, Barnett, these guys you can tell are putting in the work and going out and giving great effort.  Now, there are solid veterans that still give great effort too like Kelce and Graham.  Those are the leaders that can help the younger guys as well.  When you shake up the roster, you want a good mix of those type of veterans with the young players ready to make an impact. 

[hoosierdaddy]

3 hours ago, NOTW said:

Colin Cowherd compared it to someone winning the lottery, then going broke because they don't know how to handle money (in this case success).

We saw Doug say this is the "new normal."  Carson's reaction in congratulating Foles was to make it about himself and say it will be me next year.  They erected statues.  Doug wrote a book on winning and I believe I heard that he criticized Sean McVay in that.  Howie has now admitted that they were holding onto players from that team too long.  Doug is still loyal to a fault to veteran players like Peters and Jeffrey when the future is now with Mailata and Fulgham.  The team went from the underdog hungry and scrappy team to big heads, cocky and believing their own hype. 

3 years in a row now they have had a losing record and have to have a "wake up call" and talk about getting it figured out, to fight back, we're still in this, etc.  They've been sloppy with penalties and mental mistakes from poor throws to bad snaps to missed tackles.  Even this season they are not making changes.  Carson says he won't change, it's who he is.  Doug is ok with that, because he also won't change.  He won't change play calling to suit Carson's strengths, he won't stick with the run even when it's working, he won't change the lineup or hold Schwartz accountable to make scheme changes.  They just keep saying they believe in themselves (which in and of itself is great to trust your team and support each other), but when things are bad you have to adjust.

And this is not one season.  It's been 3 years in a row of falling behind and having to climb out of a hole.  They don't start a season prepared.  They were unprepared after the bye. They only seem to care once their backs are against the wall.  

But you look at young and hungry players trying to prove themselves.  Ward, Fulgham, Reagor, Mailata, Sanders, Scott, Goedert, Singleton, Ridgeway, Barnett, these guys you can tell are putting in the work and going out and giving great effort.  Now, there are solid veterans that still give great effort too like Kelce and Graham.  Those are the leaders that can help the younger guys as well.  When you shake up the roster, you want a good mix of those type of veterans with the young players ready to make an impact. 

Excellent post sir -- best take on what has happened to this team that I've read yet.

Add in the poor talent development and evaluation of young guys on our roster. I may be in the minority but I'm still bitter over how we couldn't grow Sidney Jones and Rasul Douglas into starters on this team.

[PoconoDon]

4 hours ago, NOTW said:

Colin Cowherd compared it to someone winning the lottery, then going broke because they don't know how to handle money (in this case success).

We saw Doug say this is the "new normal."  Carson's reaction in congratulating Foles was to make it about himself and say it will be me next year.  They erected statues.  Doug wrote a book on winning and I believe I heard that he criticized Sean McVay in that.  Howie has now admitted that they were holding onto players from that team too long.  Doug is still loyal to a fault to veteran players like Peters and Jeffrey when the future is now with Mailata and Fulgham.  The team went from the underdog hungry and scrappy team to big heads, cocky and believing their own hype. 

3 years in a row now they have had a losing record and have to have a "wake up call" and talk about getting it figured out, to fight back, we're still in this, etc.  They've been sloppy with penalties and mental mistakes from poor throws to bad snaps to missed tackles.  Even this season they are not making changes.  Carson says he won't change, it's who he is.  Doug is ok with that, because he also won't change.  He won't change play calling to suit Carson's strengths, he won't stick with the run even when it's working, he won't change the lineup or hold Schwartz accountable to make scheme changes.  They just keep saying they believe in themselves (which in and of itself is great to trust your team and support each other), but when things are bad you have to adjust.

And this is not one season.  It's been 3 years in a row of falling behind and having to climb out of a hole.  They don't start a season prepared.  They were unprepared after the bye. They only seem to care once their backs are against the wall.  

But you look at young and hungry players trying to prove themselves.  Ward, Fulgham, Reagor, Mailata, Sanders, Scott, Goedert, Singleton, Ridgeway, Barnett, these guys you can tell are putting in the work and going out and giving great effort.  Now, there are solid veterans that still give great effort too like Kelce and Graham.  Those are the leaders that can help the younger guys as well.  When you shake up the roster, you want a good mix of those type of veterans with the young players ready to make an impact. 

I agree with you.

They built that 2017 team to win for 1 year, and luckily they did. Since then they could not replace the talent that left with equal or greater talent. It's true of coaches and players. Everything was a downgrade and that process has continued steady since then. I don't see it changing any time soon. They'll keep adding inexperienced or incapable assistant coaches who will hinder player development and pair them with players who are not nearly as talented as the one being replaced, if they add anyone at all. 

F.O. - Howie Hubris won't change. He is an abject failure as a talent evaluator of draft prospects. His kick the can strategy on the salary cap is about to bite him too. Despite every move overperforming in 2017, every other move has failed and made the team weaker and worse (except maybe Sanders).

Jeffrey Lurie is blind to it all. If he truly cares, he'll fire Howie. I don't expect he will, thus I will know how he truly feels. It saddens me as a fan.

Coaching - Doug won't discipline Wentz and none of the assistants can or will either. Message to team - being undisciplined is OK with coach. Not surprised they play undisciplined football. Game plans and play calling have been atrocious for a long time now. 

Players-  Almost every move is a downgrade, and existing players, starting with Wentz, are regressing for a variety of reasons. Many young guys play hard for that lucrative 2nd contract and then become a get-by. Hyper competitive tough guys are what you want, because they'll stay the same no matter how much they're getting paid. They just want to win the play, win the matchup, win the game. Nobody has to tell you who they are. You see it for yourself instantly without any hype at all.

This team is broken from the top down. There are so many problems that I've decided to look at what I think is the main one, Howie. If Jeffrey Lurie does not get him out of the organization, then I know nothing will change in any significant way.

 

[hoosierdaddy]

10 minutes ago, PoconoDon said:

I agree with you.

They built that 2017 team to win for 1 year, and luckily they did. Since then they could not replace the talent that left with equal or greater talent. It's true of coaches and players. Everything was a downgrade and that process has continued steady since then. I don't see it changing any time soon. They'll keep adding inexperienced or incapable assistant coaches who will hinder player development and pair them with players who are not nearly as talented as the one being replaced, if they add anyone at all. 

F.O. - Howie Hubris won't change. He is an abject failure as a talent evaluator of draft prospects. His kick the can strategy on the salary cap is about to bite him too. Despite every move overperforming in 2017, every other move has failed and made the team weaker and worse (except maybe Sanders).

Jeffrey Lurie is blind to it all. If he truly cares, he'll fire Howie. I don't expect he will, thus I will know how he truly feels. It saddens me as a fan.

Coaching - Doug won't discipline Wentz and none of the assistants can or will either. Message to team - being undisciplined is OK with coach. Not surprised they play undisciplined football. Game plans and play calling have been atrocious for a long time now. 

Players-  Almost every move is a downgrade, and existing players, starting with Wentz, are regressing for a variety of reasons. Many young guys play hard for that lucrative 2nd contract and then become a get-by. Hyper competitive tough guys are what you want, because they'll stay the same no matter how much they're getting paid. They just want to win the play, win the matchup, win the game. Nobody has to tell you who they are. You see it for yourself instantly without any hype at all.

This team is broken from the top down. There are so many problems that I've decided to look at what I think is the main one, Howie. If Jeffrey Lurie does not get him out of the organization, then I know nothing will change in any significant way.

 

I agree that Howie is issue #1. Good football teams are made up of good football players. And if we don't have a GM who has the ability to identify good football players, then we're screwed.

And yes, issue #1A is our lack of player development -- and that starts with Doug. It's most evident with Carson's decline, but (as you note) we see it across the board with the entire team.

They guys who are true football players will show up and play regardless. Guys like Kelce and BG are the best examples -- and for the most part Cox is too. Lane, Brooks and Peters used to be, but none of them can stay healthy anymore, and in Peters' case he's simply at the age where he's no longer good (which is a bummer to say, but it's true).

We need a serious injection of pure football players on this team, and I agree that if Howie is calling the shots, that's not going to happen.

[[TSM]_PimpDaddyPain]

On 11/23/2020 at 2:27 PM, Philthy Jawn said:

If we go 3-12-1, I have the feeling that there will be major changes in store.  Howie will be relegated to contracts and I think Doug may be relieved of play-calling if not his job.  

And that would be worth it. 

[DeathByEagle]

If we lose out our record will be 3-12-1. What do I win for the right answer? 

[flyerdog]

If we lose out, here is what happens....

We pick top ten (hypothetically)

The Top OT,  S,  CB are still on the board.....yet Howie picks the 3rd rated DT

in the second round...

the 2nd rated S, ILB, OLB and C are still on the board....howie picks the 4th rated RB

He then trades two 4th rounders to move up 5 spots in the 3rd to draft a developmental player

the rest of the draft consists of trying to fill holes in the roster with "project" players

and prior to the draft he resigns Vinny Curry and Jason Peters..and given Derek Barnett a new 6 yr contract

did I miss anything? 

[xxeaglesfanxx]

If? More like when. Who are they beating? Certainly not New Orleans or Arizona and likely not Dallas or Washington. 3-12-1 and a top 5 pick here we come.