June 6, 20205 yr Daily update from the doc https://www.nothingbutthetruthmd.com/2020/06/6520-covid-19-update.html?m=1 ONE LAST LOOK AT HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE On June 3, 2020 the New England Journal published a randomized, prospective, double blinded, placebo controlled study examining the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine in preventing infection with Covid-19. There were 821 patients in the study who had close contact with individuals with Covid-19 for greater than 10 minutes, unprotected. Placebo or hydroxychloroquine were administered for five days. Over 10% in each group became infected with Covid-19. There was no statistical difference between the two groups. Both ACTIV, the NIH sponsored consortium and the Quantitative Biosciences Research Group (led by UCSF) will not be entertaining further trials with hydroxychloroquine. The QBRG main focus is on repurposing drugs such as hydroxychloroquine CORONAVIRUS VACCINE DEVELOPMENT JAMA Network Conversations with the Editor Dr. Paul Offit World Leader in Development of Vaccines and Vaccine Immunology Sits on the ACTIV Committee, Sits on the FDA Advisory Board Vaccine Development 1. Preclinical trials - an animal model is selected that would have signs and symptoms similar to those of a human being when infected with Covid-19. The animal is then inoculated with the virus to determine whether it is effective and what aspect of the immune response is associated with protection in the experimental animal model. 2. Phase I - the first human trial. This phase is primarily used to determine dosing ranges. What dose is consistently illicitig an immune response that will be protective. The numbers of subjects in this phase is small. Phase II - these are larger trials, typically 100's to a 1000 or more looking at safety issues. Phase III - These are larger trials which are prospective, randomized, double blinded placebo controlled trials looking for efficacy. These trials are the only way to determine whether the vaccine is protective. It is estimated that the vaccines now entering this phase will have 20,000 subjects enrolled per vaccine, half in the active group and half in the placebo group. The number could go up if there are insufficient numbers of infected individuals in the placebo group. Strategies for vaccine development: 1. An inactivated virus - polio, rabies 2. A weaker virus - measles, mumps 3. Parts of a virus - Hepatitis B vaccine 4. New strategies a. taking genetic material that codes for the spike protein (the protein that allows the virus to attach to a human cell and thus gain entry into the cell) which will then instruct our cells on how to make the spike protein which will cause an antibody response to the protein we have made. b. take viruses that are weakened or unable to reproduce themselves and then insert reengineering into that virus so that it expresses the spike protein which will then result in an immunologic response. The Phase III trial will take several months depending on the final number needed to permit statistical analysis. This phase could be speeded up by using challenging trials which I talked about recently. Vaccinated volunteers who have received active and placebo vaccines are then given live virus. The burdens are so high to prove that the vaccine mimics real world conditions that Dr. Offit does not feel that they will be utilized. Beyond the ethical issue of giving someone a fatal virus for which there is no cure. There are several groups testing vaccine currently. The NIH trials will not enroll children. The outcome is not likely to be 100% efficacy nor prevention of the disease, but more likely inhibition of moderate to severe disease, a disease that looks like the typical seasonal flu. Efficacy is hoped to be about 70%. Operation Warp Speed - an administration run project that will involve four pharmaceutical companies to mass produce the vaccine before we know whether it is efficacious. This was done with Salk Vaccine in 1954, when millions of doses were manufactured beofe the efficacy was proven. Dr. Offit believes that there will be several vaccines developed that will require two doses, there will be a need for billions of doses world wide. This will not be an FDA licensed vaccine but an FDA approved vaccine and the hope is that the FDA will not succumb to political pressure as it did with hydroxychloroquine, which ended up causing more harm than good. In the FDA's defense, there were many clinicians who practiced recklessly with a drug known to have serious side effects. Covid-19 is not a disease that has 100% mortality or anything approaching that number. Many who receive the vaccine would never have gotten the disease, and most who get the disease will survive. We must ensure that we are not doing more harm with the vaccine that the disease would cause. NUMBERS: 1800 from the Hopkins website Tests- no new data USA - 1,890,592 (up 1.23%, up from 1.07%) New York - 376,208 (up 0.28% unchanged) New Jersey - 163,336 (up 0.49%, up from 0.28%) Pennsylvania - 78,815 (up 0.61%, down from 0.71%, 75 fewer new cases than the day before) Maryland - 56,770 (up 1.60%, up from 1.59%) California - 123,066 (up 2.05%, down from 2.57%) even though California is down for the day they still had 2483 new cases in one day South Carolina - 13,001 ( up 4.4% over 2 days) Texas - 71,473 - (up 3.76%) 2596 new cases in one day Both California and Texas are really struggling. I don't know what is going on in California, but I expected this for Texas. The opened up the state without much emphasis on safe living practices and they are paying a steep price. Have a great night Live Safely - don't be a Texan Be Well
June 6, 20205 yr Wow this thread really dropped down The page, I wonder why? 😆 has anyone figured out the % of potential positive cases out of the total population yet? Based on the numbers so far, it looks like roughly 9.5% of tested cases come out positive. 1.9m of about 19.5m tests. If I’m doing this math right then if we say roughly 10% of the tested cases are positive, with 330m people in the country, it would mean there could be 33m people with it (assuming everyone is tested). Let’s just say for the sake of argument that everyone could get tested today and have an answer today. 10% of positive cases doesn’t really seem that high to me. And then there’s the possibility that the 10% positive might be much higher since there’s obviously people who tested negative and then ended up positive later on, faulty tests and inaccurate results etc. but in any case, I think the point is that less than 10% chance I have it now or you have it, or anyone I would interact with would have it is pretty low. Let’s go back to our lives people!
June 6, 20205 yr Fear stopping Rohingya from getting tested as coronavirus hits refugee camps https://nypost.com/2020/06/05/fear-stops-rohingya-getting-tested-as-virus-hits-refugee-camps/amp/
June 6, 20205 yr Wifey and I are big partygoers and restaurant goers. We love shows, bars etc. We are starting to adjust our lifestyle for the long haul. Got the bicycles, and now our "weekend nights" are going towards bar hopping on bikes from noon-5pm. Plenty fo places with tables out.
June 7, 20205 yr 13 hours ago, Phillyterp85 said: Daily update from the doc https://www.nothingbutthetruthmd.com/2020/06/6520-covid-19-update.html?m=1 ONE LAST LOOK AT HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE On June 3, 2020 the New England Journal published a randomized, prospective, double blinded, placebo controlled study examining the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine in preventing infection with Covid-19. There were 821 patients in the study who had close contact with individuals with Covid-19 for greater than 10 minutes, unprotected. Placebo or hydroxychloroquine were administered for five days. Over 10% in each group became infected with Covid-19. There was no statistical difference between the two groups. Both ACTIV, the NIH sponsored consortium and the Quantitative Biosciences Research Group (led by UCSF) will not be entertaining further trials with hydroxychloroquine. The QBRG main focus is on repurposing drugs such as hydroxychloroquine CORONAVIRUS VACCINE DEVELOPMENT JAMA Network Conversations with the Editor Dr. Paul Offit World Leader in Development of Vaccines and Vaccine Immunology Sits on the ACTIV Committee, Sits on the FDA Advisory Board Vaccine Development 1. Preclinical trials - an animal model is selected that would have signs and symptoms similar to those of a human being when infected with Covid-19. The animal is then inoculated with the virus to determine whether it is effective and what aspect of the immune response is associated with protection in the experimental animal model. 2. Phase I - the first human trial. This phase is primarily used to determine dosing ranges. What dose is consistently illicitig an immune response that will be protective. The numbers of subjects in this phase is small. Phase II - these are larger trials, typically 100's to a 1000 or more looking at safety issues. Phase III - These are larger trials which are prospective, randomized, double blinded placebo controlled trials looking for efficacy. These trials are the only way to determine whether the vaccine is protective. It is estimated that the vaccines now entering this phase will have 20,000 subjects enrolled per vaccine, half in the active group and half in the placebo group. The number could go up if there are insufficient numbers of infected individuals in the placebo group. Strategies for vaccine development: 1. An inactivated virus - polio, rabies 2. A weaker virus - measles, mumps 3. Parts of a virus - Hepatitis B vaccine 4. New strategies a. taking genetic material that codes for the spike protein (the protein that allows the virus to attach to a human cell and thus gain entry into the cell) which will then instruct our cells on how to make the spike protein which will cause an antibody response to the protein we have made. b. take viruses that are weakened or unable to reproduce themselves and then insert reengineering into that virus so that it expresses the spike protein which will then result in an immunologic response. The Phase III trial will take several months depending on the final number needed to permit statistical analysis. This phase could be speeded up by using challenging trials which I talked about recently. Vaccinated volunteers who have received active and placebo vaccines are then given live virus. The burdens are so high to prove that the vaccine mimics real world conditions that Dr. Offit does not feel that they will be utilized. Beyond the ethical issue of giving someone a fatal virus for which there is no cure. There are several groups testing vaccine currently. The NIH trials will not enroll children. The outcome is not likely to be 100% efficacy nor prevention of the disease, but more likely inhibition of moderate to severe disease, a disease that looks like the typical seasonal flu. Efficacy is hoped to be about 70%. Operation Warp Speed - an administration run project that will involve four pharmaceutical companies to mass produce the vaccine before we know whether it is efficacious. This was done with Salk Vaccine in 1954, when millions of doses were manufactured beofe the efficacy was proven. Dr. Offit believes that there will be several vaccines developed that will require two doses, there will be a need for billions of doses world wide. This will not be an FDA licensed vaccine but an FDA approved vaccine and the hope is that the FDA will not succumb to political pressure as it did with hydroxychloroquine, which ended up causing more harm than good. In the FDA's defense, there were many clinicians who practiced recklessly with a drug known to have serious side effects. Covid-19 is not a disease that has 100% mortality or anything approaching that number. Many who receive the vaccine would never have gotten the disease, and most who get the disease will survive. We must ensure that we are not doing more harm with the vaccine that the disease would cause. NUMBERS: 1800 from the Hopkins website Tests- no new data USA - 1,890,592 (up 1.23%, up from 1.07%) New York - 376,208 (up 0.28% unchanged) New Jersey - 163,336 (up 0.49%, up from 0.28%) Pennsylvania - 78,815 (up 0.61%, down from 0.71%, 75 fewer new cases than the day before) Maryland - 56,770 (up 1.60%, up from 1.59%) California - 123,066 (up 2.05%, down from 2.57%) even though California is down for the day they still had 2483 new cases in one day South Carolina - 13,001 ( up 4.4% over 2 days) Texas - 71,473 - (up 3.76%) 2596 new cases in one day Both California and Texas are really struggling. I don't know what is going on in California, but I expected this for Texas. The opened up the state without much emphasis on safe living practices and they are paying a steep price. Have a great night Live Safely - don't be a Texan Be Well Ask your dad if he can drop a "Dallas sucks” in the next one
June 7, 20205 yr 3 hours ago, dawkins4prez said: Wifey and I are big partygoers and restaurant goers. We love shows, bars etc. We are starting to adjust our lifestyle for the long haul. Got the bicycles, and now our "weekend nights" are going towards bar hopping on bikes from noon-5pm. Plenty fo places with tables out. We walked to Rita’s today...
June 7, 20205 yr On 6/6/2020 at 8:58 AM, Phillyterp85 said: Daily update from the doc https://www.nothingbutthetruthmd.com/2020/06/6520-covid-19-update.html?m=1 ONE LAST LOOK AT HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE On June 3, 2020 the New England Journal published a randomized, prospective, double blinded, placebo controlled study examining the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine in preventing infection with Covid-19. There were 821 patients in the study who had close contact with individuals with Covid-19 for greater than 10 minutes, unprotected. Placebo or hydroxychloroquine were administered for five days. Over 10% in each group became infected with Covid-19. There was no statistical difference between the two groups. Both ACTIV, the NIH sponsored consortium and the Quantitative Biosciences Research Group (led by UCSF) will not be entertaining further trials with hydroxychloroquine. The QBRG main focus is on repurposing drugs such as hydroxychloroquine CORONAVIRUS VACCINE DEVELOPMENT JAMA Network Conversations with the Editor Dr. Paul Offit World Leader in Development of Vaccines and Vaccine Immunology Sits on the ACTIV Committee, Sits on the FDA Advisory Board Vaccine Development 1. Preclinical trials - an animal model is selected that would have signs and symptoms similar to those of a human being when infected with Covid-19. The animal is then inoculated with the virus to determine whether it is effective and what aspect of the immune response is associated with protection in the experimental animal model. 2. Phase I - the first human trial. This phase is primarily used to determine dosing ranges. What dose is consistently illicitig an immune response that will be protective. The numbers of subjects in this phase is small. Phase II - these are larger trials, typically 100's to a 1000 or more looking at safety issues. Phase III - These are larger trials which are prospective, randomized, double blinded placebo controlled trials looking for efficacy. These trials are the only way to determine whether the vaccine is protective. It is estimated that the vaccines now entering this phase will have 20,000 subjects enrolled per vaccine, half in the active group and half in the placebo group. The number could go up if there are insufficient numbers of infected individuals in the placebo group. Strategies for vaccine development: 1. An inactivated virus - polio, rabies 2. A weaker virus - measles, mumps 3. Parts of a virus - Hepatitis B vaccine 4. New strategies a. taking genetic material that codes for the spike protein (the protein that allows the virus to attach to a human cell and thus gain entry into the cell) which will then instruct our cells on how to make the spike protein which will cause an antibody response to the protein we have made. b. take viruses that are weakened or unable to reproduce themselves and then insert reengineering into that virus so that it expresses the spike protein which will then result in an immunologic response. The Phase III trial will take several months depending on the final number needed to permit statistical analysis. This phase could be speeded up by using challenging trials which I talked about recently. Vaccinated volunteers who have received active and placebo vaccines are then given live virus. The burdens are so high to prove that the vaccine mimics real world conditions that Dr. Offit does not feel that they will be utilized. Beyond the ethical issue of giving someone a fatal virus for which there is no cure. There are several groups testing vaccine currently. The NIH trials will not enroll children. The outcome is not likely to be 100% efficacy nor prevention of the disease, but more likely inhibition of moderate to severe disease, a disease that looks like the typical seasonal flu. Efficacy is hoped to be about 70%. Operation Warp Speed - an administration run project that will involve four pharmaceutical companies to mass produce the vaccine before we know whether it is efficacious. This was done with Salk Vaccine in 1954, when millions of doses were manufactured beofe the efficacy was proven. Dr. Offit believes that there will be several vaccines developed that will require two doses, there will be a need for billions of doses world wide. This will not be an FDA licensed vaccine but an FDA approved vaccine and the hope is that the FDA will not succumb to political pressure as it did with hydroxychloroquine, which ended up causing more harm than good. In the FDA's defense, there were many clinicians who practiced recklessly with a drug known to have serious side effects. Covid-19 is not a disease that has 100% mortality or anything approaching that number. Many who receive the vaccine would never have gotten the disease, and most who get the disease will survive. We must ensure that we are not doing more harm with the vaccine that the disease would cause. NUMBERS: 1800 from the Hopkins website Tests- no new data USA - 1,890,592 (up 1.23%, up from 1.07%) New York - 376,208 (up 0.28% unchanged) New Jersey - 163,336 (up 0.49%, up from 0.28%) Pennsylvania - 78,815 (up 0.61%, down from 0.71%, 75 fewer new cases than the day before) Maryland - 56,770 (up 1.60%, up from 1.59%) California - 123,066 (up 2.05%, down from 2.57%) even though California is down for the day they still had 2483 new cases in one day South Carolina - 13,001 ( up 4.4% over 2 days) Texas - 71,473 - (up 3.76%) 2596 new cases in one day Both California and Texas are really struggling. I don't know what is going on in California, but I expected this for Texas. The opened up the state without much emphasis on safe living practices and they are paying a steep price. Have a great night Live Safely - don't be a Texan Be Well Well then I guess Its a no to Hydroxy after all. Thanks for the info as always.
June 7, 20205 yr 19 hours ago, DaEagles4Life said: Fear stopping Rohingya from getting tested as coronavirus hits refugee camps https://nypost.com/2020/06/05/fear-stops-rohingya-getting-tested-as-virus-hits-refugee-camps/amp/ Thanks for posting that. I appreciate you bringing that to my attention.
June 7, 20205 yr 17 hours ago, dawkins4prez said: Wifey and I are big partygoers and restaurant goers. We love shows, bars etc. We are starting to adjust our lifestyle for the long haul. Got the bicycles, and now our "weekend nights" are going towards bar hopping on bikes from noon-5pm. Plenty fo places with tables out. We've did the same thing getting bikes, huge bonus. We're not super extroverts but still we love bars/restaurants/shows so it has been annoying. Outdoor seating and even take out food/cocktails picnics in parks etc have been scratching that itch a bit.
June 8, 20205 yr Update from the doc https://www.nothingbutthetruthmd.com/2020/06/6620-covid-19-update.html?m=1 SPIKES When I think of the term "spike", as in the context of the numbers of cases, it brings to mind a sudden, dramatic increase in the number of cases in a short period of time, which I do not believe will happen. The dynamic between people living safely and those who appear to think that the virus has gone away will determine the rise in new cases. If a large percentage of individuals in a geographic locale where to abruptly abandon distancing and wearing masks when distancing is not practical, then a "spike" would most likely occur. Texas and South Carolina are the two states where I have the most information on what individuals seem to be doing. As a friend recently visiting from South Carolina said to me, "it seems like in Pennsylvania you are dealing with a different virus then we are in South Carolina". Apparently in South Carolina people are less concerned with distancing and wearing masks and their continued weekly increase in numbers reflects that attitude. In Texas reopening was not accompanied by an appeal to the population to distance and wear masks and there does not appear to be significant compliance, and their numbers are increasing significantly. This week they might have what one would consider a "spike" with a 63% increase in cases. THE EFFECTS OF SUMMER I do not believe that the summer months will bring a respite in viral transmission. We know now that 94% of the transmission is through respiratory droplets which occurs in a very short period of time. If fomite transmission were important than exposure to sunlight might have a beneficial effect. One need only look at the chaotic spread in Brazil to see that transmission is not being slowed by warm temperatures and sunlight. RESURGENCE IN THE FALL To have a resurgence in the fall, we would have to have steadily declining numbers and then a sudden uptick in the fall. I do not see that happening either. The numbers have sort of plateaued and may even be trending up, I believe that as more people seem to think the virus has gone into hiding, the higher the case numbers will go. NUMBERS Of the 18 states I track (please refer to last Sunday's email) eight states have had more new cases this week than last week. Michigan, Texas and Georgia had large jumps. Also up this week were California, Connecticut, Florida (for the fifth week in a row), Louisiana, and South Carolina. Many of these states are repeaters over the last five weeks. Besides the disease burden, the economic impact of increased healthcare in those states will be problematic and healthcare premiums will likely rise significantly. PEDIATRICS A new study was published in JAMA Pediatrics this week. Between March 26th and April 22nd, Children Hospital of Philadelphia, Texas Children's and Seattle Children's tested all patients presenting for surgery. In total, 1295 children were tested, the average age was a little over 7. There were 12 positive tests, 0.93% infection rate. Fifty percent were asymptomatic Nine of the 12 cases occurred at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. There were 339 tests with a positive rate of 2.6%. Five of the positives were from one county. For the other two hospitals there were 956 tests, with three positives, for a 0.31% infection rate. To put these numbers into context, it would be good to remember that outside of studies, and only relatively recently, have asymptomatic individuals been tested. Have a great night Live Safely Be Well
June 8, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, Phillyterp85 said: Update from the doc https://www.nothingbutthetruthmd.com/2020/06/6620-covid-19-update.html?m=1 . If a large percentage of individuals in a geographic locale where to abruptly abandon distancing and wearing masks when distancing is not practical, then a "spike" would most likely occur. So does he think we'll have a "spike" after the protests? I'd imagine if it happens then it'll also happen globally since other nations joined in
June 8, 20205 yr 9 minutes ago, Mike030270 said: So does he think we'll have a "spike" after the protests? I'd imagine if it happens then it'll also happen globally since other nations joined in Oh my bad, I told you I would get back to you and forgot. I did talk to him today about that. He basically said it comes down to whether or not the overwhelming majority of people were wearing masks or not. It's purely anecdotal, but I live near the art museum. A lot of people walked by my house on the way to the protest on the Parkway. I'd say at least 90% of the people I saw go past were wearing masks, so that's a good sign. Again, purely anecdotal as there are many ways to get to the parkway other than walking past my house lol, so the amount of people I saw barely make up a fraction of the total people at the protest. But hopefully that was the norm!
June 8, 20205 yr On 6/6/2020 at 6:21 PM, dawkins4prez said: Wifey and I are big partygoers and restaurant goers. We love shows, bars etc. We are starting to adjust our lifestyle for the long haul. Got the bicycles, and now our "weekend nights" are going towards bar hopping on bikes from noon-5pm. Plenty fo places with tables out. After 1 too many IPA's:
June 9, 20205 yr 35 minutes ago, hputenis said: After 1 too many IPA's: Oh yeah last stop has to be close to home.
June 9, 20205 yr Author 13 hours ago, hputenis said: After 1 too many IPA's: Did he stick the landing?
June 9, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, DEagle7 said: Going to be an interesting few weeks. Hoping these governors and everyone were right in their calculations as to what the hospitals could handle as we reopen.
June 9, 20205 yr https://reason.com/2020/06/09/is-asymptomatic-spread-of-covid-19-very-rare-depends-how-you-define-asymptomatic/ Quote Is Asymptomatic Spread of COVID-19 Very Rare? Depends How You Define 'Asymptomatic' Plus: Netflix out-trademarks the U.S. government, contraception shortages, and more... ELIZABETH NOLAN BROWN | 6.9.2020 9:30 AM New confusion over asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19. We've been told by public health experts for weeks that COVID-19 is being spread in part by masses of sick people who show no symptoms. Now, World Health Organization (WHO) epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove says spread by asymptomatic people is "very rare." What?
June 9, 20205 yr 2 minutes ago, Tnt4philly said: https://reason.com/2020/06/09/is-asymptomatic-spread-of-covid-19-very-rare-depends-how-you-define-asymptomatic/ I've been truly baffled by this, it's so confusing. Hard to believe asymptomatic spread at least as I understand it isn't happening or is very rare. Could it really have spread this much if only symptomatic people were spreading it? Just doesnt make sense.
June 9, 20205 yr So asymptomatic people don't really spread the virus, it actually doesn't spread on surfaces, and masks are now mandatory. Man, why don't people trust WHO?
June 9, 20205 yr 9 minutes ago, Kz! said: So asymptomatic people don't really spread the virus, it actually doesn't spread on surfaces, and masks are now mandatory. Man, why don't people trust WHO? That's a cheap shot built on willful ignorance. Science is slow, they can't make it go faster. There'a reason why under normal circumstances you wouldn't be hearing about every theory or possibility, you'd only hear about the results when they were done and they would be done at the speed of science. It's also a perfect reminder of why the lockdowns were so necessary and anybody monday morning Qb'ing them can go F themselves: every day we learn more about COVID and what we knew back in April seems like the dark ages now. And to call out the WHO is simply being a BS'er with an agenda, it's not like anybody else in the world has cracked this nut.
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