February 3, 20223 yr Let's be, clear, though: This pandemic is far from over. If you know anything about the history of pandemics. They are not quick. They often last multiple years and come in waves themselves over the course of decades or even centuries. Bubonic plague re-appeared in Europe multiple times for several years over the course of the 14th-16th centuries, often in spates of 3-5 years at a time. The reality is that, we can try getting back to normal, but that might prove very evasive. If we are truly even halfway through this pandemic at two years in, then we're on a pretty good timeline. But there's a good chance that this could last much, much longer, and that we will eventually have no choice but to return to strict mitigation.
February 3, 20223 yr 17 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said: Let's be, clear, though: This pandemic is far from over. If you know anything about the history of pandemics. They are not quick. They often last multiple years and come in waves themselves over the course of decades or even centuries. Bubonic plague re-appeared in Europe multiple times for several years over the course of the 14th-16th centuries, often in spates of 3-5 years at a time. The reality is that, we can try getting back to normal, but that might prove very evasive. If we are truly even halfway through this pandemic at two years in, then we're on a pretty good timeline. But there's a good chance that this could last much, much longer, and that we will eventually have no choice but to return to strict mitigation. The big difference between your examples is how exponentially faster research and scientific advancement is now as opposed to the 14th century.
February 3, 20223 yr 19 minutes ago, Boogyman said: The big difference between your examples is how exponentially faster research and scientific advancement is now as opposed to the 14th century. Absolutely, and hopefully that does shorten the duration considerably, but I still would not be surprised if conditions continue to be quite challenging for another year or two, especially if people continue to oppose vaccination and behave recklessly. Remember, too, that the developing world is a huge wildcard here. We can't truly end this pandemic if we don't vaccinate far and wide, bringing the vaccine to impoverished nations and remote areas of the world.
February 3, 20223 yr Any info on whether Omicron is more easily contracted through contact with contaminated surfaces? With the original strain, we eventually learned that that risk was essentially infinitesimal, but I'm wondering if things have changed in that regard.
February 3, 20223 yr 3 minutes ago, Parrot Head said: Return to strict mitigation? Lol yeah sure. Keep laughing, and that's how we'll get there.
February 3, 20223 yr 1 minute ago, EaglesRocker97 said: Any info on whether Omicron is more easily contracted through contact with contaminated surfaces? With the original strain, we eventually learned that that risk was essentially infinitesimal, but I'm wondering if things have changed in that regard. Keep laughing, and that's how we'll get there. Oh, I'm laughing. Good luck with your strict mitigation. Even your side knows better than to try that crap again.
February 3, 20223 yr Just now, Parrot Head said: Oh, I'm laughing. Good luck with your strict mitigation. Even your side knows better than to try that crap again. I'm not saying what I want, I'm telling you what will happen if we don't continue to be vigilant.
February 3, 20223 yr Just now, EaglesRocker97 said: I'm not saying what I want, I'm telling you what will happen if we don't continue to be vigilant. And I'm telling you that you're delusional. That will NEVER happen again.
February 3, 20223 yr 2 minutes ago, Parrot Head said: And I'm telling you that you're delusional. That will NEVER happen again. Guy named Parrot Head calling people delusional Jimmy Buffett sucks.
February 3, 20223 yr 3 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said: Guy named Parrot Head calling people delusional Jimmy Buffett sucks. What a sick burn!
February 3, 20223 yr 15 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said: Any info on whether Omicron is more easily contracted through contact with contaminated surfaces? With the original strain, we eventually learned that that risk was essentially infinitesimal, but I'm wondering if things have changed in that regard. Some studies have been done that indicated it can survive a bit longer on some surfaces compared to the og strain, but nothing that I've seen concludes surface contamination is a driver of infections.
February 3, 20223 yr 48 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said: Absolutely, and hopefully that does shorten the duration considerably, but I still would not be surprised if conditions continue to be quite challenging for another year or two, especially if people continue to oppose vaccination and behave recklessly. Remember, too, that the developing world is a huge wildcard here. We can't truly end this pandemic if we don't vaccinate far and wide, bringing the vaccine to impoverished nations and remote areas of the world. This is just wrong. If you want to end this pandemic, the fastest way to do that is to attain herd immunity through natural exposure. Natural immunity is more effective and lasts much longer than vaccines. When dealing with a virus which mutates quickly, a vaccine developed in a lab, tested for safety and distributed widely is likely to be useless for large portions of the population because a different strain of the virus is circulating by that time. We've seen that in real time. Billions of immune systems cranking out trillions of unique antibodies at lightening speed, and which might last a lifetime, is preferable to a clunky one-off vaccine which last for only a few months. To the extent that universal vaccination hinders natural herd immunity, it may even be counter-productive. The exception, of course, is for those most vulnerable to the sickness, who might not survive exposure. A targeted, narrow vaccine program at the onset might make sense.
February 3, 20223 yr 5 minutes ago, Abracadabra said: This is just wrong. If you want to end this pandemic, the fastest way to do that is to attain herd immunity through natural exposure. ght not survive exposure. A targeted, narrow vaccine program at the onset might make sense. Actually, the best way would be through a combination of natural and mRNA immunity, otherwise known as "blended" or "hybrid" immunity.
February 3, 20223 yr 27 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said: Guy named Parrot Head calling people delusional Jimmy Buffett sucks. He must have signed up really early to get the official "Parrot Head" name.
February 3, 20223 yr 14 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said: Actually, the best way would be through a combination of natural and mRNA immunity, otherwise known as "blended" or "hybrid" immunity. According to some virologists, mRNA spike might result in heightened sensitivity by priming the immune system and leading to the dreaded cytokine storm. Btw, here is a link to an article discussing survivors from the 1918 pandemic who still retained active antibodies to the original strain, as well as some effectiveness to subsequent strains.
February 3, 20223 yr 8 minutes ago, Paul852 said: He must have signed up really early to get the official "Parrot Head" name. Yeah, the ever so cool Paul852 was already taken!
February 3, 20223 yr Just now, Parrot Head said: Yeah, the ever so cool Paul852 was already taken! You too? Same thing happened to me.
February 3, 20223 yr 43 minutes ago, Parrot Head said: And I'm telling you that you're delusional. That will NEVER happen again. Say again? Lockdowns had "little to no effect” on saving lives during the pandemic — and "should be rejected out of hand as a pandemic policy,” according to economists in a new meta-analysis of dozens of studies. A group led by the head of Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics analyzed studies from the first surge of the pandemic to investigate widely pushed claims that stringent restrictions would limit deaths. Instead, the meta-analysis concluded that lockdowns across the US and Europe had only "reduced COVID-19 mortality by 0.2% on average.” https://nypost.com/2022/02/02/covid-lockdowns-had-very-little-effect-on-mortality-rate-study/
February 3, 20223 yr NY Post I know that when I need an epidemiological study during a pandemic, the first people I turn to are economists!
February 3, 20223 yr 14 minutes ago, Parrot Head said: Yeah, the ever so cool Paul852 was already taken! No need to be so mean, damn. I thought Jimmy Buffet fans were chill and laid back.
February 3, 20223 yr 10 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said: NY Post I know that when I need an epidemiological study during a pandemic, the first people I turn to are economists! It's a John Hopkins study dum dum https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/working-papers/studies-in-applied-economics/
February 3, 20223 yr 1 minute ago, DaEagles4Life said: It's a John Hopkins study dum dum Quote "John Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics" "Jonas Herby (herby@cepos.dk) is special advisor at Center for Political Studies in Copenhagen, Denmark. His research focuses on law and economics. He holds a master’s degree in economics from University of Copenhagen. Lars Jonung (lars.jonung@nek.lu.se) is professor emeritus in economics at Lund University, Sweden." "Lars Jonung (lars.jonung@nek.lu.se) is professor emeritus in economics at Lund University, Sweden. He served as chairperson of the Swedish Fiscal Policy Council 2012-13, as research advisor at the European Commission 2000-2010, and as chief economic adviser to Prime Minister Carl Bildt in 1992-94. He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Los Angeles." Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics and Founder & Co-Director of The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics DUM DUM
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